Monday, August 04, 2008

Simulations for Tuesday, August 5th

Teams Pitching Matchup Vegas Fave Vegas ML Vegas O/U Sim Odds Sim/Actual Runs AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Cardinals C.Billingsley vs C.Carpenter Cardinals -107 -101 8.0 55.69% 7.24/10 56%/7.6 Cardinals
Astros vs Cubs W.Rodriguez vs R.Harden Cubs -221 +203 TBD 61.24% 9.02/18 64%/8.0 Cubs
Marlins vs Phillies J.Johnson vs J.Moyer Phillies -151 +143 9.5 50.85% 10.72/10 64%/10.6 Marlins
A's vs Blue Jays G.Smith vs S.Richmond Blue Jays -127 +119 8.5 61.20% 9.29/7 58%/8.0 Blue Jays
Padres vs Mets C.Young vs M.Pelfrey Mets -156 +148 8.0 62.35% 7.66/11 63%/8.5 Mets
Brewers vs Reds D.Bush vs E.Volquez Reds -121 +113 9.0 55.09% 9.91/9 46%/9.0 Brewers
Indians vs Rays F.Carmona vs E.Jackson Rays -126 +118 8.5 64.01% 9.05/12 51%/9.5 Rays
Yankees vs Rangers A.Pettitte vs M.Harrison Yankees -153 +145 11.0 54.05% 11.55/14 65%/12.4 Rangers
Red Sox vs Royals J.Beckett vs B.Bannister Red Sox -163 +155 8.5 53.06% 9.12/10 56%/9.1 Red Sox
Tigers vs White Sox N.Robertson vs G.Floyd White Sox -139 +131 10.5 58.56% 10.91%/18 60%/11.5 White Sox
Nationals vs Rockies J.Lannan vs J.De La Rosa Rockies -167 +159 10.0 68.47% 9.93/10 65%/9.5 Rockies
Pirates vs DBacks Z.Duke vs B.Webb DBacks -265 +245 8.5 63.78% 9.57/4 73%/9.2 DBacks
Orioles vs Angels L.Cormier vs J.Garland TBD TBD TBD 58.62% 9.22/3 72%/12.1 Orioles
Twins vs Mariners S.Baker vs R.Dickey Twins -123 +115 8.5 45.67% 8.23/15 57%/9.6 Mariners
Braves vs Giants M.Hampton vs J.Sanchez Giants -122 +114 8.5 53.42% 7.29/15 55%/9.6 Braves
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Amount Bet Gain/Loss Day Current Total Percent Gain
Xeifrank's Simulator $2959 $1382 $9814 96.28%
AccuScore $2156 -$143 $11462 143.32%
Pinnacle Sports
I am now making ficticious bets to track how well my simulator is doing vs Vegas Odds and AccuScore. I will use the same betting method for both my simulator and AccuScore vs Vegas odds to see which method would win/lose more money. Odds will be taken from PinnacleSports.com and when not available from LV Hilton Sports Book. This method will begin keeping track on games starting 7/13/08. The Kelly Strategy will be used for all ML (Money Line) bets. Bet totals are listed below. I started each method with $5,000 units.
Today's Bets (Simulator): Stl($206), Hou($214), Fla($339), Tor($298), TB($375), Tex($216), KC($317), Col($375), Pit($254), Sea($365)
Today's Bets (AccuScore): Stl($223), Hou($111), Phi($241), Tor($116), NYM($132), Mil($332), Cle($144), NYY($286), KC($196), CWS($110), Col($163), Min($102)

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