Friday, August 15, 2008

Simulations for Saturday, August 16th

Teams Pitching Matchup Vegas Fave Vegas ML Vegas O/U Sim Odds Sim/Actual Runs AccuScore Winner
Brewers vs Dodgers D.Bush vs D.Lowe Dodgers -136 +128 7.9 59.88% 9.09/7 62%/8.6 Brewers
Mets vs Pirates P.Martinez vs Z.Duke Mets -159 +151 9.4 46.37% 9.18/11 55%/10.1 Mets
Cardinals vs Reds J.Pineiro vs A.Harang Reds -105 -103 9.5 53.95 9.66/12 54%/8.8 Cardinals
Cubs vs Marlins S.Marshall vs A.Sanchez Marlins -104 -104 9.4 50.82% 9.16/3 45%/10.6 Marlins
Rockies vs Nationals L.Hernandez vs J.Lannan Nationals -131 +123 9.0 50.08% 9.19/19 50%/9.6 Rockies
Giants vs Braves J.Sanchez vs M.Hampton Braves -132 +124 8.9 54.34% 8.42/16 60%/10.2 Braves
DBacks vs Astros Y.Petit vs B.Backe DBacks -107 -101 8.9 46.90% 9.51/TBD 47%/9.0 TBD
Phillies vs Padres K.Kendrick vs C.Reineke Phillies -138 +130 8.5 53.44% 7.59/11 53%/9.6 Padres
Angels vs Indians J.Lackey vs F.Carmona Angels -141 +133 8.4 52.44% 8.79/7 61%/9.3 Angels
Orioles vs Tigers D.Sarfate vs J.Verlander Tigers -201 +185 9.9 57.13% 9.34/8 71%/11.0 Tigers
Royals vs Yankees Z.Greinke vs S.Ponson Yankees -169 +161 9.4 62.78% 9.61/5 56%/10.7 Yankees
Rays vs Rangers E.Jackson vs M.Harrison Rays -120 +112 11.4 47.08% 11.05/3 47%/12.6 Rangers
Mariners vs Twins R.Smith vs S.Baker Twins -195 +184 8.4 52.86% 7.73/TBD 65%/10.4 TBD
White Sox vs A's J.Danks vs G.Smith White Sox -131 +123 7.9 52.78% 8.43/3 60%/8.7 White Sox
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Amount Bet Gain/Loss Day Current Total Percent Gain
Xeifrank's Simulator $2261 -$858 $6767 35.35%
AccuScore $2670 $146 $10672 113.44%
Pinnacle Sports
I am now making ficticious bets to track how well my simulator is doing vs Vegas Odds and AccuScore. I will use the same betting method for both my simulator and AccuScore vs Vegas odds to see which method would win/lose more money. Odds will be taken from PinnacleSports.com and when not available from LV Hilton Sports Book. This method will begin keeping track on games starting 7/13/08. The Kelly Strategy will be used for all ML (Money Line) bets. Bet totals are listed below. I started each method with $5,000 units.
Today's Bets (Simulator): LAD($132), Pit($300), Cin($139), Col($230), Hou($143), SD($136), Cle($203), Bal($299), Tex($272), Sea($300), Oak($107)
Today's Bets (AccuScore): LAD($258), Pit($214), Cin($142), ChC($205), Col($233), Atl($180), Hou($138), SD($155), LAA($150), Det($300), KC($230), Tex($275), CWS($190)

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