Sunday, August 17, 2008

Simulations for Monday, August 18th

Teams Pitching Matchup Vegas Fave Vegas ML Vegas O/U Sim Odds Sim/Actual Runs AccuScore Winner
Mets vs Pirates J.Maine vs P.Maholm Mets -132 +124 8.3 45.62% 8.76/7 50%/8.7 Pirates
Giants vs Braves B.Zito vs J.Campillo Braves -201 +185 8.4 62.45% 7.97/5 68%/9.2 Giants
Astros vs Brewers R.Wolf vs C.Sabathia Brewers -261 +241 7.4 64.99% 8.87/12 67%/8.3 Brewers
Red Sox vs Orioles J.Lester vs J.Guthrie Red Sox -119 +111 8.4 55.50% 9.63/9 48%/9.7 Red Sox
Angels vs Rays J.Garland vs A.Sonnanstine Rays -116 +108 9.2 62.38% 9.26/10 48%/9.5 Rays
Tigers vs Rangers K.Rogers vs S.Feldman Rangers -109 +101 11.6 54.02% 10.75/TBD 51%/12.5 TBD
A's vs Twins J.Duchscherer vs N.Blackburn Twins -127 +119 7.9 52.94% 7.57/5 53%/7.7 A's
Mariners vs White Sox J.Washburn vs M.Buehrle White Sox -201 +185 9.0 65.70% 10.32/18 69%/10.0 White Sox
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Amount Bet Gain/Loss Day Current Total Percent Gain
Xeifrank's Simulator $727 $487 $5157 3.16%
AccuScore $542 -$15 $10982 119.66%
Pinnacle Sports
I am now making ficticious bets to track how well my simulator is doing vs Vegas Odds and AccuScore. I will use the same betting method for both my simulator and AccuScore vs Vegas odds to see which method would win/lose more money. Odds will be taken from PinnacleSports.com and when not available from LV Hilton Sports Book. This method will begin keeping track on games starting 7/13/08. The Kelly Strategy will be used for all ML (Money Line) bets. Bet totals are listed below. I started each method with $5,000 units.
Today's Bets (Simulator): Pit($293), Hou($134), TB($300)
Today's Bets (AccuScore): Pit($161), Bal($145), LAA($125), CWS($111)

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