Thursday, August 14, 2008

Simulations for Friday, August 15th

Teams Pitching Matchup Vegas Fave Vegas ML Vegas O/U Sim Odds Sim/Actual Runs AccuScore Winner
Brewers vs Dodgers M.Parra vs C.Billingsley Dodgers -139 +131 7.5 61.09% 8.71/8 59%/8.9 Dodgers
Mets vs Pirates M.Pelfrey vs J.Davis Mets -138 +130 9.0 47.95% 9.14/3 58%/10.3 Mets
Cardinals vs Reds B.Thompson vs B.Arroyo Cardinals -105 -103 9.5 50.07% 9.67/8 46%/9.4 Cardinals
Cubs vs Marlins C.Zambrano vs J.Johnson Cubs -129 +121 8.0 46.85% 8.89/11 57%/9.2 Cubs
Rockies vs Nationals J.DeLaRosa vs T.Redding Rockies -117 +109 8.8 53.81% 8.83/7 54%/10.2 Rockies
Giants vs Braves M.Cain vs J.Jurrjens Braves -149 +141 7.4 60.67% 7.68/6 57%/8.5 Giants
DBacks vs Astros B.Webb vs W.Rodriguez DBacks -138 +130 8.0 50.74% 8.08/15 51%/7.5 DBacks
Phillies vs Padres J.Moyer vs G.Maddux Phillies -119 +111 8.0 51.02% 6.93/1 51%/8.6 Phillies
Angels vs Indians J.Weaver vs C.Lee Indians -127 +119 8.0 53.87% 8.45/5 54%/8.9 Indians
Orioles vs Tigers C.Waters vs N.Robertson Tigers -152 +144 10.9 59.08% 9.95/13 55%/11.6 Orioles
Royals vs Yankees G.Meche vs A.Pettitte Yankees -185 +177 8.8 64.44% 9.19/7 63%/10.2 Royals
Rays vs Rangers M.Garza vs K.Millwood Rangers -106 -102 10.5 55.56% 10.63/7 54%/11.2 Rays
Mariners vs Twins C.Silva vs F.Liriano Twins -210 +192 8.5 63.97% 7.66/12 66%/9.2 Twins
White Sox vs A's G.Floyd vs D.Braden White Sox -110 +102 8.5 47.40% 8.74/10 55%/9.3 A's
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Amount Bet Gain/Loss Day Current Total Percent Gain
Xeifrank's Simulator $1394 -$784 $7551 51.03%
AccuScore $847 -$432 $11104 122.09%
Pinnacle Sports
I am now making ficticious bets to track how well my simulator is doing vs Vegas Odds and AccuScore. I will use the same betting method for both my simulator and AccuScore vs Vegas odds to see which method would win/lose more money. Odds will be taken from PinnacleSports.com and when not available from LV Hilton Sports Book. This method will begin keeping track on games starting 7/13/08. The Kelly Strategy will be used for all ML (Money Line) bets. Bet totals are listed below. I started each method with $5,000 units.
Today's Bets (Simulator): LAD($175), Pit($300), Fla($300), Hou($255), Bos($300), Tex($211), Oak($153)
Today's Bets (AccuScore): Cin($165), Hou($244), Bal($170), Tex($131), CWS($137)

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