Monday, August 11, 2008

Simulations for Tuesday, August 12th

Teams Pitching Matchup Vegas Fave Vegas ML Vegas O/U Sim Odds Sim/Actual Runs AccuScore Winner
Phillies vs Dodgers C.Hamels vs C.Kershaw Phillies -119 +111 6.8 45.59% 8.96/7 57%/8.2 Dodgers
Reds vs Pirates E.Volquez vs J.Karstens Reds -108 +100 8.4 45.19% 8.39/6 47%/9.5 Reds
Rangers vs Red Sox S.Feldman vs C.Zink Red Sox -160 +152 11.4 55.22% 11.50/36 60%/12.0 Red Sox
Orioles vs Indians G.Olson vs J.Sowers Indians -116 +108 9.9 51.66% 9.25/12 59%/11.3 Indians
Blue Jays vs Tigers A.Burnett vs Z.Miner Tigers -116 +108 8.3 53.96% 9.09/10 58%/9.8 Blue Jays
Mets vs Nationals J.Santana vs O.Perez Mets -201 +185 7.4 53.71% 8.73/7 71%/8.6 Mets
Cubs vs Braves R.Harden vs C.Morton Cubs -162 +154 7.8 51.24% 8.66/TBD 56%/8.4 TBD
Cardinals vs Marlins K.Lohse vs C.Volstad Marlins -114 +106 9.0 58.32% 8.61/7 47%/9.6 Marlins
Giants vs Astros T.Lincecum vs R.Oswalt Astros -115 +107 7.5 54.45% 7.67/16 57%/7.9 Astros
Yankees vs Twins M.Mussina vs N.Blackburn Yankees -126 +118 8.3 53.35% 8.45/15 50%/9.5 Yankees
Royals vs White Sox B.Bannister vs J.Vazquez White Sox -170 +162 9.4 64.24% 9.82/9 64%/9.3 White Sox
DBacks vs Rockies R.Johnson vs U.Jimenez Rockies -140 +132 8.8 67.88% 9.94/6 56%/9.2 DBacks
Brewers vs Padres J.Suppan vs C.Baek Brewers -122 +114 7.9 54.63% 7.32/7 49%/9.0 Brewers
Rays vs A's S.Kazmir vs G.Gonzalez Rays -144 +136 7.4 49.83% 7.96/3 55%/8.5 A's
Mariners vs Angels J.Washburn vs J.Garland Angels -178 +170 9.4 60.24% 9.10/10 67%/10.7 Angels
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Amount Bet Gain/Loss Day Current Total Percent Gain
Xeifrank's Simulator $2250 -$242 $9704 95.76%
AccuScore $2243 -$295 $11785 135.71%
Pinnacle Sports
I am now making ficticious bets to track how well my simulator is doing vs Vegas Odds and AccuScore. I will use the same betting method for both my simulator and AccuScore vs Vegas odds to see which method would win/lose more money. Odds will be taken from PinnacleSports.com and when not available from LV Hilton Sports Book. This method will begin keeping track on games starting 7/13/08. The Kelly Strategy will be used for all ML (Money Line) bets. Bet totals are listed below. I started each method with $5,000 units.
Today's Bets (Simulator): LAD($333), Pit($240), Was($375), Fla($270), Col($375), Oak($338), Sea($108), Tex($211)
Today's Bets (AccuScore): Phi($145), Pit($150), Cle($286), Det($232), NYM($317), Stl($216), Hou($188), Min($190), SD($200), Oak($113), LAA($206)

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