Thursday, February 03, 2011

Padres vs Dodgers, 2011 Pre-Season Simulations

On the heels of the Giants/Dodgers and Rockies/Dodgers 2011 simulated matchups that didn't look all that good for the Dodgers, I present to you the Padres/Dodgers 2011 simulated matchups. This time the good guys come out on top. In this exercise, each pitching matchup was simulated 100K times with each team taking a shot at being both the away and home team. Below are the lineups, starting rotations used as well as the results (50).

Padres Starting Lineup Dodgers Starting Lineup
Padres vs LHP Padres vs RHP   Dodgers vs LHP Dodgers vs RHP
Order Pos Name Pos Name   Pos Name Pos Name
1 SS J.Bartlett SS J.Bartlett   SS R.Furcal SS R.Furcal
2 2B O.Hudson 2B O.Hudson   CF M.Kemp CF M.Kemp
3 3B C.Headley 3B C.Headley   RF A.Ethier RF A.Ethier
4 RF R.Ludwick RF R.Ludwick   3B C.Blake 1B J.Loney
5 1B J.Cantu 1B B.Hawpe   2B J.Uribe 3B C.Blake
6 LF C.Denorfia LF W.Venable   LF M.Thames 2B J.Uribe
7 CF C.Maybin CF C.Maybin   1B J.Loney LF J.Gibbons
8 C G.Zaun C N.Hundley   C R.Barajas C R.Barajas

Padres Rotation Dodgers Rotation
#1 Mat Latos #1 Clayton Kershaw
#2 Clayton Richard #2 Chad Billingsley
#3 Wade LeBlanc #3 Hiroki Kuroda
#4 Aaron Harang #4 Ted Lilly
#5 Tim Stauffer #5 Jon Garland

Simulation Results
Away Starter Home Starter Favorite Win Prob
Mat Latos Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 55.54%
Clayton Kershaw Mat Latos Padres 53.87%
Mat Latos Chad Billingsley Dodgers 53.87%
Chad Billingsley Mat Latos Padres 56.37%
Mat Latos Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 52.50%
Hiroki Kuroda Mat Latos Padres 58.18%
Mat Latos Ted Lilly Padres 52.84%
Ted Lilly Mat Latos Padres 61.37%
Mat Latos Jon Garland Padres 55.76%
Jon Garland Mat Latos Padres 65.06%
Clayton Richard Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 60.58%
Clayton Kershaw Clayton Richard Padres 50.86%
Clayton Richard Chad Billingsley Dodgers 58.18%
Chad Billingsley Clayton Richard Padres 53.01%
Clayton Richard Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 54.62%
Hiroki Kuroda Clayton Richard Padres 53.81%
Clayton Richard Ted Lilly Dodgers 51.41%
Ted Lilly Clayton Richard Padres 56.19%
Clayton Richard Jon Garland Padres 52.18%
Jon Garland Clayton Richard Padres 61.25%
Wade LeBlanc Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 67.23%
Clayton Kershaw Wade LeBlanc Dodgers 56.64%
Wade LeBlanc Chad Billingsley Dodgers 64.88%
Chad Billingsley Wade LeBlanc Dodgers 54.41%
Wade LeBlanc Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 62.80%
Hiroki Kuroda Wade LeBlanc Dodgers 52.81%
Wade LeBlanc Ted Lilly Dodgers 58.72%
Ted Lilly Wade LeBlanc Dodgers 50.17%
Wade LeBlanc Jon Garland Dodgers 55.13%
Jon Garland Wade LeBlanc Padres 54.33%
Aaron Harang Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 67.06%
Clayton Kershaw Aaron Harang Dodgers 55.69%
Aaron Harang Chad Billingsley Dodgers 64.89%
Chad Billingsley Aaron Harang Dodgers 53.94%
Aaron Harang Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 61.68%
Hiroki Kuroda Aaron Harang Dodgers 53.26%
Aaron Harang Ted Lilly Dodgers 58.50%
Ted Lilly Aaron Harang Dodgers 50.36%
Aaron Harang Jon Garland Dodgers 55.95%
Jon Garland Aaron Harang Padres 55.36%
Tim Stauffer Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 60.32%
Clayton Kershaw Tim Stauffer Dodgers 50.38%
Tim Stauffer Chad Billingsley Dodgers 59.55%
Chad Billingsley Tim Stauffer Padres 52.37%
Tim Stauffer Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 57.23%
Hiroki Kuroda Tim Stauffer Padres 52.45%
Tim Stauffer Ted Lilly Dodgers 51.89%
Ted Lilly Tim Stauffer Padres 55.39%
Tim Stauffer Jon Garland Padres 51.32%
Jon Garland Tim Stauffer Padres 60.23%

When you average the combined win probability of all fifty games, the Dodgers have an average win probability of 51.96%. Extrapolated out over a 162 game season the Dodgers would win 84.17 games and the Padres would win 77.83. The simulator is showing the Dodgers as the stronger of the two teams, but it is fairly close.

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Software

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