All-Star Prospect Team vs Phillies

In my previous post I looked at how a minor league All-Star team would do against a bad American League team like the Kansas City Royals. That previous post pointed out that using my baseball simulator, the minor league All-Star team was a slightly stronger team than the Royals. Now I have matched that same minor league All-Star team up against one of the juggernaughts from the National League, the Phillies. For details of how I selected the minor league All-Star team please see my previous post.

In this exercise I had each #1 starting pitcher face each other, both away and home. I then did the same thing for the #2 thru #5 pitchers, thus having a 10 game series. Each of the 10 games was simulated/played 100K times with the simulator spitting out a win probability for each game. I decided to use the same bullpens for each team (the Phillies bullpen) and give all of the minor league players a league average defensive rating.

Here are the rosters of the two teams that I used.

Lineups
AAA All-Stars			Philadelphia Phillies
Pos	Name	Org	Name	Pos
CF	Charles Blackmon	COL	SS	Jimmy Rollins
C	Devin Mesoraco	CIN	3B	Placido Polanco
1B	Brandon Belt	SF	2B	Chase Utley
3B	Mike Moustakas	KC	1B	Ryan Howard
LF	Jerry Sands	LAN	LF	Raul Ibanez
RF	J.D. Martinez	HOU	CF	Shane Victorino
2B	Daniel Descalso	STL	RF	Dominic Brown
SS	Grant Green	OAK	C	Carlos Ruiz
P	Pitchers Spot	NA	P	Pitchers Spot

Now let's take a look at the starting rotations.

AAA All-Stars			Philadelphia Phillies
	Name	Organization		Name
#1	Michael Pineda	SEA	vs	Roy Halladay
#2	Julian Teheran	ATL	vs	Cliff Lee
#3	Jake McGee	TB	vs	Roy Oswalt
#4	Christian Freidrich	COL	vs	Cole Hamels
#5	Mike Montgomery	KC	vs	Kyle Kendrick

Now let's take a look at the game results...

Results
Away	Away SP	Home	Home SP	Favorite	Win Prob
Phillies	Roy Halladay	AAA All-Stars	Michael Pineda	Phillies	61.27%
AAA All-Stars	Michael Pineda	Phillies	Roy Halladay	Phillies	72.80%
Phillies	Cliff Lee	AAA All-Stars	Julian Teheran	Phillies	63.94%
AAA All-Stars	Julian Teheran	Phillies	Cliff Lee	Phillies	74.93%
Phillies	Roy Oswalt	AAA All-Stars	Jake McGee	Phillies	56.58%
AAA All-Stars	Jake McGee	Phillies	Roy Oswalt	Phillies	68.64%
Phillies	Cole Hamels	AAA All-Stars	Christian Freidrich	Phillies	63.06%
AAA All-Stars	Christian Freidrich	Phillies	Cole Hamels	Phillies	74.70%
Phillies	Kyle Kendrick	AAA All-Stars	Mike Montgomery	Phillies	51.52%
AAA All-Stars	Mike Montgomery	Phillies	Kyle Kendrick	Phillies	63.42%

Mean win percentage for the Phillies is 65.09%. So using the ZIPS projections as input for the minor league All-Star team and my proprietary set of projections for the Philadelphia Phillies, the Phillies maul the minor league All-Star team. I may attempt to run this exercise against one more major league team.

Simulator Notes: My simulator takes into account (among other things) park factors, home field advantage, defense, splits, base running and uses a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections for MLB players.

Helpful Sources:
MLB Depth Charts
Fangraphs