Friday, February 18, 2011

Giants vs Dodgers, Opening Day Simulated Preview

The 2011 season begins for the Dodgers on March 31st at home in a game against the defending champions the San Francisco Giants. The starters for the game have already been announced. The Giants will start their long haired hippy, Tim Lincecum - while the Dodgers will counter with their clean cut and wholesome ace Clayton Kershaw, in what will be a classic matchup of Evil vs Good. I have gone ahead and simulated this game, making a guess at the starting lineups 100K times. Below are the lineups used and the results.

PlayerPos PlayerPos
Giants  Dodgers 
Andres TorresCF Rafael FurcalSS
Freddy Sanchez2B Andre EthierRF
Aubrey Huff1B Matt KempCF
Buster PoseyC James Loney1B
Pat BurrellLF Juan Uribe2B
Miguel TejadaSS Jay GibbonsLF
Cody RossRF Casey Blake3B
Pablo Sandoval3B Rod BarajasC
Tim LincecumSP Clayton KershawSP

... And now the results

AwayHome  FavoriteWin ProbOver/Under
SFLANTim LincecumClayton KershawLAN53.9725.81217

So we see that the Dodgers will likely be a slight favorite to win on opening day, but a win probability of just under 54% is pretty much a toss up game.

Here is the hitters boxscore
Andres Torres4.271.0060.5760.3170.0250.0880.2820.3371.2870.2960.317
Freddy Sanchez4.2181.160.7720.3090.010.0690.3010.2811.0020.3180.347
Aubrey Huff4.0651.0280.6960.20.0120.120.3770.3780.9570.3150.304
Buster Posey4.0540.9970.6940.2360.0040.0630.3440.3041.0430.290.317
Pat Burrell3.8240.8810.5250.2260.0020.1280.4270.4331.290.3090.313
Miguel Tejada3.9411.0250.7130.2410.0060.0660.3480.1970.7050.2950.303
Cody Ross3.7380.8620.5570.2060.0050.0950.3460.2881.1650.2870.31
Pablo Sandoval3.4670.7180.4650.180.0060.0670.2890.4221.3750.2790.321
Tim Lincecum3.6570.3350.2650.0590.0010.0090.10.1472.2010.1150.225
Rafael Furcal4.0431.0250.6520.2640.0370.0720.240.3470.8670.310.307
Andre Ethier3.870.9710.5680.2490.0110.1440.3760.4481.0210.3330.306
Matt Kemp3.950.9470.6050.2020.030.110.370.2721.2050.2970.318
James Loney3.7840.9690.60.270.0150.0830.3810.3950.780.3220.303
Juan Uribe3.7710.8920.5440.2120.0190.1170.4210.2490.8620.2960.278
Jay Gibbons3.5780.8160.4730.20.0070.1370.40.3630.8380.3080.261
Casey Blake3.5080.8080.5040.2060.0090.0890.3250.2571.0310.2870.301
Rod Barajas3.4190.7450.4780.1760.0050.0860.3070.2240.8110.2710.261
Clayton Kershaw3.4240.3460.2790.0550.0020.010.0910.1251.8570.1220.216

Pitchers Boxscore
Tim Lincecum6.4887.0571.8895.410.621100.5443.143
Brian Wilson0.4740.5820.1240.3380.0297.22.319
Sergio Romo0.4390.4850.1010.3590.0416.6512.891
Ramon Ramirez0.6250.4520.2120.6090.0669.7514.147
Santiago Casilla0.2880.2640.1160.2430.0234.5573.606
Chris Ray0.380.2760.1590.3760.0476.1044.59
Guillermo Mota0.1850.1440.0710.1750.0192.9284.167
Denny Bautista0.0130.0130.0070.010.0020.2084.38
Clayton Kershaw6.5247.6021.9395.6440.469102.812.696
Johnathan Broxton0.4820.720.1550.3180.0317.5932.021
HongZhi Kuo0.5080.6870.1320.3750.0237.851.854
Kenley Jansen0.7320.9590.2450.5550.04211.6022.339
Matt Guerrier0.3450.2790.0980.3480.0385.3753.875
Vicente Padilla0.6210.6220.1590.6020.0779.6953.567
Ron Mahay0.1610.150.0540.1620.0222.5874.131
Blake Hawksworth0.0070.0070.0020.0070.0010.1183.974


El Lay Dave said...

Hilarious intro. Would have liked to see a bigger Dodger advantage but Lincecum is good and the Dodger batting order from #4 on down, not so much.

obsessivegiantscompulsive said...

Thanks for letting me know about the simulation.

Sadly for the simulation, it is only as good as the projections it use.

Sandoval will be hitting much better than projected (more 2009 than 2010) plus Lincecum will be lights out with his new slider, being much like he was in 2008 and 2009, only better, and ruin opening day for the D-gers.