Thursday, February 10, 2011

Minor League All-Stars vs Dodgers

I've recently imported some minor league stats from ZIPS projections into my simulator and created a minor league All-Star team based off of the ZIPS projections (MLEs) of the best minor leaguers that have yet to crack the major leagues.  I then pit that team against a major league team to see how well they match up.  So far I have matched them up against the Royals and the Phillies.  The minor league All-Star team actually beat the Royals, winning an average of 51.72% of the time.  The Phillies on the other hand won 65.67% of the time.  Now I take a look at how the Dodgers did.  There are still a handful of teams that ZIPS does not have projections for at this time, so players from those teams are not eligible for the minor league All-Star team yet.  Jerry Sands is the only Dodgers to crack the minor league All-Star team (starting left fielder).

The methodology I used was to have each #1 starting pitcher face each other, both away and home. I then did the same thing for the #2 thru #5 pitchers, thus having a 10 game series. Each of the 10 games was simulated/played 100K times with the simulator spitting out a win probability for each game. I decided to use the same bullpens for each team (the Dodgers bullpen) and give all of the minor league players a league average defensive rating.

Here are the rosters of the two teams that I used.  Keep in mind that lineups don't matter much.

AAA All-Stars Los Angeles Dodgers
Pos Name Org Name Pos
CF Charles Blackmon COL SS Rafael Furcal
C Devin Mesoraco CIN CF Matt Kemp
1B Brandon Belt SF RF Andre Ethier
3B Mike Moustakas KC 2B Juan Uribe
LF Jerry Sands
LAN 1B James Loney
RF J.D. Martinez
HOU LF Marcus Thames
2B Daniel Descalso
STL 3B Casey Blake
SS Grant Green
OAK C Rod Barajas
P Pitcher NA P Pitcher

Now let's take a look at the starting rotations.

AAA All-Stars Los Angeles Dodgers
  Name Organization   Name
#1 Michael Pineda SEA vs Clayton Kershaw
#2 Julian Teheran ATL vs Chad Billingsley
#3 Jake McGee TB vs Hiroki Kuroda
#4 Christian Freidrich COL vs Ted Lilly
#5 Mike Montgomery KC vs Jon Garland

Now let's take a look at the game results...

Away Away SP Home Home SP Favorite Win Prob
Dodgers Clayton Kershaw
AAA All-Stars Michael Pineda
Dodgers 58.44%
AAA All-Stars Michael Pineda Dodgers Clayton Kershaw
Dodgers 70.65%
Dodgers Chad Billingsley
AAA All-Stars Julian Teheran Dodgers 56.59%
AAA All-Stars Julian Teheran Dodgers Chad Billingsley
Dodgers 69.43%
Dodgers Hiroki Kuroda
AAA All-Stars Jake McGee Dodgers 50.68%
AAA All-Stars Jake McGee Dodgers Hiroki Kuroda
Dodgers 63.65%
Dodgers Ted Lilly
AAA All-Stars Christian Freidrich Dodgers 52.91%
AAA All-Stars Christian Freidrich Dodgers Ted Lilly
Dodgers 64.83%
Dodgers Jon Garland
AAA All-Stars Mike Montgomery AAA All-Stars
AAA All-Stars Mike Montgomery Dodgers Jon Garland
Dodgers 60.16%

Mean win percentage for the Dodgers is 59.47%. So using the ZIPS projections as input for the AAA All-Star team and my proprietary set of projections for the Dodgers, the AAA All-Star team, the Dodgers beat up the AAA All-Star team pretty bad, a little bit worse than how badly the Dodgers would beat up the Diamondbacks.

Simulator Notes: My simulator takes into account (among other things) park factors, home field advantage, defense, splits, base running and uses a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections for MLB players.

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