Monday, February 14, 2011

AL Zero to Three VS NL Zero to Three

In case you haven't been following the series over at FanGraphs, Jonah Keri has put together an AL and NL All-Star team from players with less than three years of major league service, who are making at or near league minimum. The NL Zero to Three team was posted first, followed by the AL Zero to Three team. I volunteered to run a simulation between the two rosters to see which was the stronger team.

Here are the results...

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFavoriteWin Probability
NLALClayton KershawClay BuccholzAL50.509
ALNLClay BuchholzClayton KershawNL61.487
NLALTommy HansonJustin MastersonAL52.045
ALNLJustin MastersonTommy HansonNL58.186
NLALMat LatosKyle DrabekNL57.194
ALNLKyle DrabekMat LatosNL67.676
NLALTravis WoodGio GonzalezAL53.619
ALNLGio GonzalezTravis WoodNL55.999
NLALJaime GarciaDoug FisterAL52.062
ALNLDoug FisterJaime GarciaNL57.789

As expected the NL team dominates this simulation. Their average win probability over the 10 games is 55.01%. If you put that in per 162 games, the NL team would win 89.12 games.

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