In case you haven't been following the series over at FanGraphs, Jonah Keri has put together an AL and NL All-Star team from players with less than three years of major league service, who are making at or near league minimum. The NL Zero to Three team was posted first, followed by the AL Zero to Three team. I volunteered to run a simulation between the two rosters to see which was the stronger team.
Here are the results...
|Away||Home||Away SP||Home SP||Favorite||Win Probability|
|NL||AL||Clayton Kershaw||Clay Buccholz||AL||50.509|
|AL||NL||Clay Buchholz||Clayton Kershaw||NL||61.487|
|NL||AL||Tommy Hanson||Justin Masterson||AL||52.045|
|AL||NL||Justin Masterson||Tommy Hanson||NL||58.186|
|NL||AL||Mat Latos||Kyle Drabek||NL||57.194|
|AL||NL||Kyle Drabek||Mat Latos||NL||67.676|
|NL||AL||Travis Wood||Gio Gonzalez||AL||53.619|
|AL||NL||Gio Gonzalez||Travis Wood||NL||55.999|
|NL||AL||Jaime Garcia||Doug Fister||AL||52.062|
|AL||NL||Doug Fister||Jaime Garcia||NL||57.789|
As expected the NL team dominates this simulation. Their average win probability over the 10 games is 55.01%. If you put that in per 162 games, the NL team would win 89.12 games.