Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Rockies vs Dodgers, 2011 Pre-Season Simulations

On the heels of the Giants/Dodgers 2011 simulated matchups, I present to you the Rockies/Dodgers 2011 simulated matchups. Each pitching matchup was simulated 100K times with each team taking a shot at being both the away and home team. Below are the lineups, starting rotations used as well as the results (50).

Rockies Starting Lineup Dodgers Starting Lineup
Rockies vs LHP Rockies vs RHP   Dodgers vs LHP Dodgers vs RHP
Order Pos Name Pos Name   Pos Name Pos Name
1 CF D.Fowler CF D.Fowler   SS R.Furcal SS R.Furcal
2 2B J.Lopez RF S.Smith   CF M.Kemp CF M.Kemp
3 RF C.Gonzalez LF C.Gonzalez   RF A.Ethier RF A.Ethier
4 SS T.Tulowitzki SS T.Tulowitzki   3B C.Blake 1B J.Loney
5 LF R.Spilborghs 3B I.Stewart   2B J.Uribe 3B C.Blake
6 1B T.Wigginton 1B T.Helton   LF M.Thames 2B J.Uribe
7 3B I.Stewart 2B J.Lopez   1B J.Loney LF J.Gibbons
8 C C.Iannetta C C.Iannetta   C R.Barajas C R.Barajas

Rockies Rotation Dodgers Rotation
#1 Ubaldo Jimenez #1 Clayton Kershaw
#2 Jorge de la Rosa #2 Chad Billingsley
#3 Jason Hammel #3 Hiroki Kuroda
#4 Jhoulys Chacin #4 Ted Lilly
#5 Aaron Cook #5 Jon Garland

Simulation Results
Away Starter Home Starter Favorite Win Prob
Ubaldo Jimenez Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 53.81%
Clayton Kershaw Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 58.17%
Ubaldo Jimenez Chad Billingsley Dodgers 51.40%
Chad Billingsley Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 61.09%
Ubaldo Jimenez Hiroki Kuroda Rockies 50.81%
Hiroki Kuroda Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 62.88%
Ubaldo Jimenez Ted Lilly Rockies 55.18%
Ted Lilly Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 66.35%
Ubaldo Jimenez Jon Garland Rockies 58.51%
Jon Garland Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 70.16%
Jorge de la Rosa Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 59.47%
Clayton Kershaw Jorge de la Rosa Rockies 52.54%
Jorge de la Rosa Chad Billingsley Dodgers 57.12%
Chad Billingsley Jorge de la Rosa Rockies 55.36%
Jorge de la Rosa Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 55.16%
Hiroki Kuroda Jorge de la Rosa Rockies 57.18%
Jorge de la Rosa Ted Lilly Dodgers 50.59%
Ted Lilly Jorge de la Rosa Rockies 60.82%
Jorge de la Rosa Jon Garland Rockies 52.03%
Jon Garland Jorge de la Rosa Rockies 64.87%
Jason Hammel Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 58.40%
Clayton Kershaw Jason Hammel Rockies 52.78%
Jason Hammel Chad Billingsley Dodgers 56.26%
Chad Billingsley Jason Hammel Rockies 55.44%
Jason Hammel Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 53.75%
Hiroki Kuroda Jason Hammel Rockies 57.65%
Jason Hammel Ted Lilly Rockies 51.08%
Ted Lilly Jason Hammel Rockies 61.29%
Jason Hammel Jon Garland Rockies 53.77%
Jon Garland Jason Hammel Rockies 65.41%
Jhoulys Chacin Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 56.28%
Clayton Kershaw Jhoulys Chacin Rockies 55.41%
Jhoulys Chacin Chad Billingsley Dodgers 53.64%
Chad Billingsley Jhoulys Chacin Rockies 58.53%
Jhoulys Chacin Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 51.34%
Hiroki Kuroda Jhoulys Chacin Rockies 60.18%
Jhoulys Chacin Ted Lilly Rockies 52.95%
Ted Lilly Jhoulys Chacin Rockies 63.90%
Jhoulys Chacin Jon Garland Rockies 55.94%
Jon Garland Jhoulys Chacin Rockies 67.62%
Aaron Cook Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 61.99%
Clayton Kershaw Aaron Cook Dodgers 51.81%
Aaron Cook Chad Billingsley Dodgers 59.82%
Chad Billingsley Aaron Cook Rockies 51.60%
Aaron Cook Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 57.61%
Hiroki Kuroda Aaron Cook Rockies 53.40%
Aaron Cook Ted Lilly Dodgers 53.33%
Ted Lilly Aaron Cook Rockies 56.79%
Aaron Cook Jon Garland Dodgers 50.20%
Jon Garland Aaron Cook Rockies 61.21%

When you average the combined win probability of all fifty games, the Rockies have an average win probability of 53.38%. Extrapolated out over a 162 game season the Rockies would win 86.47 games and the Dodgers would win 75.53. The simulator is showing the Rockies as the stronger of the two teams, but it is close enough that the Dodgers could reasonably finish with a better record than the Rockies due to randomness.

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TrueBlueLA_Phil said...

That doesn't look very close to me.

Xeifrank said...

Yeah, luckily the two teams don't actually play each other 162 times. The Giants results were somewhat (not quite as bad) similar. I may have to post a Giants/Rockies H2H to see how the top two teams in the NL West stack up. This exercise of course does not take into consideration the Dodgers strength at the #6 spot in the starting rotation should anyone go down. Of course, same goes for the Rockies. :)