Sunday, January 30, 2011

Giants vs Dodgers, 2011 Pre-Season Simulations

The Giants might be the World Series Champions, but just how good are they? Are they good enough to be considered a strong NL West favorite? Are they better than the 2011 Dodgers on paper? Well, to shed some light on this I ran some head to head simulations between the 2011 Giants and Dodgers. Each pitching matchup was simulated 100K times with each team taking a shot at being both the away and home team. Below are the lineups, starting rotations used as well as the results (50).

Giants Starting Lineup Dodgers Starting Lineup
Giants vs LHP Giants vs RHP   Dodgers vs LHP Dodgers vs RHP
Order Pos Name Pos Name   Pos Name Pos Name
1 CF A.Torres CF A.Torres   SS R.Furcal SS R.Furcal
2 2B F.Sanchez 2B F.Sanchez   CF M.Kemp CF M.Kemp
3 1B A.Huff 1B A.Huff   RF A.Ethier RF A.Ethier
4 C B.Posey C B.Posey   3B C.Blake 1B J.Loney
5 RF C.Ross RF C.Ross   2B J.Uribe 3B C.Blake
6 LF P.Burrell LF P.Burrell   LF M.Thames 2B J.Uribe
7 SS M.Tejada SS M.Tejada   1B J.Loney LF J.Gibbons
8 3B P.Sandoval 3B P.Sandoval   C R.Barajas C R.Barajas

Giants Rotation Dodgers Rotation
#1 Tim Lincecum #1 Clayton Kershaw
#2 Matt Cain #2 Chad Billingsley
#3 Jonathan Sanchez #3 Hiroki Kuroda
#4 Madison Bumgarner #4 Ted Lilly
#5 Barry Zito #5 Jon Garland

Simulation Results
Away Starter Home Starter Favorite Win Prob
Tim Lincecum Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 53.97%
Clayton Kershaw Tim Lincecum Giants 57.43%
Tim Lincecum Chad Billingsley Dodgers 55.25%
Chad Billingsley Tim Lincecum Giants 56.85%
Tim Lincecum Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 52.23%
Hiroki Kuroda Tim Lincecum Giants 58.72%
Tim Lincecum Ted Lilly Giants 55.42%
Ted Lilly Tim Lincecum Giants 65.50%
Tim Lincecum Jon Garland Giants 54.81%
Jon Garland Tim Lincecum Giants 65.43%
Matt Cain Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 57.01%
Clayton Kershaw Matt Cain Giants 54.36%
Matt Cain Chad Billingsley Dodgers 57.60%
Chad Billingsley Matt Cain Giants 53.51%
Matt Cain Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 54.77%
Hiroki Kuroda Matt Cain Giants 55.41%
Matt Cain Ted Lilly Giants 52.71%
Ted Lilly Matt Cain Giants 62.31%
Matt Cain Jon Garland Giants 52.24%
Jon Garland Matt Cain Giants 62.55%
Jonathan Sanchez Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 57.95%
Clayton Kershaw Jonathan Sanchez Giants 53.27%
Jonathan Sanchez Chad Billingsley Dodgers 58.50%
Chad Billingsley Jonathan Sanchez Giants 54.19%
Jonathan Sanchez Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 55.71%
Hiroki Kuroda Jonathan Sanchez Giants 55.34%
Jonathan Sanchez Ted Lilly Giants 51.84%
Ted Lilly Jonathan Sanchez Giants 62.07%
Jonathan Sanchez Jon Garland Giants 51.19%
Jon Garland Jonathan Sanchez Giants 62.25%
Madison Bumgarner Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 57.38%
Clayton Kershaw Madison Bumgarner Giants 53.95%
Madison Bumgarner Chad Billingsley Dodgers 58.24%
Chad Billingsley Madison Bumgarner Giants 52.94%
Madison Bumgarner Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 55.42%
Hiroki Kuroda Madison Bumgarner Giants 54.80%
Madison Bumgarner Ted Lilly Giants 52.20%
Ted Lilly Madison Bumgarner Giants 62.11%
Madison Bumgarner Jon Garland Giants 52.16%
Jon Garland Madison Bumgarner Giants 62.05%
Barry Zito Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 59.68%
Clayton Kershaw Barry Zito Giants 51.33%
Barry Zito Chad Billingsley Dodgers 60.49%
Chad Billingsley Barry Zito Giants 50.35%
Barry Zito Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 57.85%
Hiroki Kuroda Barry Zito Giants 52.69%
Barry Zito Ted Lilly Dodgers 50.75%
Ted Lilly Barry Zito Giants 59.48%
Barry Zito Jon Garland Dodgers 50.83%
Jon Garland Barry Zito Giants 59.79%

When you average the combined win probability of all fifty games, the Giants have an average win probability of 52.15%. Extrapolated out over a 162 game season the Giants would win 84.49 games and the Dodgers would win 77.51. Not a big difference but the simulator is showing that the Giants are a better team than the Dodgers, nothing that a little luck and favorable injuries couldn't overcome.

NBA Odds

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