Friday, February 04, 2011

DBacks vs Dodgers, 2011 Pre-Season Simulations

In the previous days, I've looked at the Dodgers simulations against the Giants , Rockies and Padres, now it's time to look at the final NL West opponent, the Arizona Diamondbacks. In this exercise, each pitching matchup was simulated 100K times with each team taking a shot at being both the away and home team. Below are the lineups, starting rotations used as well as the results (50). A hit tip to Jim McLellan from AZ Snakepit for helping me out with the Diamondbacks batting lineups.

Diamondbacks Starting Lineup Dodgers Starting Lineup
Diamondbacks vs LHP Diamondbacks vs RHP   Dodgers vs LHP Dodgers vs RHP
Order Pos Name Pos Name   Pos Name Pos Name
1 SS S.Drew SS S.Drew   SS R.Furcal SS R.Furcal
2 CF C.Young RF J.Upton   CF M.Kemp CF M.Kemp
3 2B K.Johnson 2B K.Johnson   RF A.Ethier RF A.Ethier
4 RF J.Upton CF C.Young   3B C.Blake 1B J.Loney
5 C M.Montero C M.Montero   2B J.Uribe 3B C.Blake
6 LF X.Nady LF X.Nady   LF M.Thames 2B J.Uribe
7 3B M.Mora 1B J.Miranda   1B J.Loney LF J.Gibbons
8 1B J.Miranda 3B M.Mora   C R.Barajas C R.Barajas

Diamondbacks Rotation Dodgers Rotation
#1 Daniel Hudson #1 Clayton Kershaw
#2 Ian Kennedy #2 Chad Billingsley
#3 Joe Saunders #3 Hiroki Kuroda
#4 Zach Duke #4 Ted Lilly
#5 Armando Galarraga #5 Jon Garland

Simulation Results
Away Starter Home Starter Favorite Win Prob
Daniel Hudson Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 63.32%
Clayton Kershaw Daniel Hudson Dodgers 53.45%
Daniel Hudson Chad Billingsley Dodgers 64.59%
Chad Billingsley Daniel Hudson Dodgers 54.03%
Daniel Hudson Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 62.27%
Hiroki Kuroda Daniel Hudson Dodgers 52.08%
Daniel Hudson Ted Lilly Dodgers 54.44%
Ted Lilly Daniel Hudson Diamondbacks 54.75%
Daniel Hudson Jon Garland Dodgers 55.13%
Jon Garland Daniel Hudson Diamondbacks 55.93%
Ian Kennedy Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 65.79%
Clayton Kershaw Ian Kennedy Dodgers 55.39%
Ian Kennedy Chad Billingsley Dodgers 66.93%
Chad Billingsley Ian Kennedy Dodgers 56.19%
Ian Kennedy Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 64.73%
Hiroki Kuroda Ian Kennedy Dodgers 54.25%
Ian Kennedy Ted Lilly Dodgers 56.88%
Ted Lilly Ian Kennedy Diamondbacks 52.54%
Ian Kennedy Jon Garland Dodgers 52.18%
Jon Garland Ian Kennedy Diamondbacks 53.45%
Joe Saunders Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 67.00%
Clayton Kershaw Joe Saunders Dodgers 57.28%
Joe Saunders Chad Billingsley Dodgers 68.20%
Chad Billingsley Joe Saunders Dodgers 57.86%
Joe Saunders Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 65.78%
Hiroki Kuroda Joe Saunders Dodgers 56.17%
Joe Saunders Ted Lilly Dodgers 58.32%
Ted Lilly Joe Saunders Diamondbacks 50.40%
Joe Saunders Jon Garland Dodgers 58.59%
Jon Garland Joe Saunders Diamondbacks 51.62%
Zach Duke Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 69.01%
Clayton Kershaw Zach Duke Dodgers 58.97%
Zach Duke Chad Billingsley Dodgers 69.91%
Chad Billingsley Zach Duke Dodgers 59.55%
Zach Duke Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 67.66%
Hiroki Kuroda Zach Duke Dodgers 57.76%
Zach Duke Ted Lilly Dodgers 59.83%
Ted Lilly Zach Duke Dodgers 50.99%
Zach Duke Jon Garland Dodgers 60.73%
Jon Garland Zach Duke Dodgers 50.26%
Armando Galarraga Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 70.65%
Clayton Kershaw Armando Galarraga Dodgers 61.77%
Armando Galarraga Chad Billingsley Dodgers 71.93%
Chad Billingsley Armando Galarraga Dodgers 62.22%
Armando Galarraga Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 69.74%
Hiroki Kuroda Armando Galarraga Dodgers 60.46%
Armando Galarraga Ted Lilly Dodgers 62.30%
Ted Lilly Armando Galarraga Dodgers 54.05%
Armando Galarraga Jon Garland Dodgers 62.82%
Jon Garland Armando Galarraga Dodgers 52.93%

When you average the combined win probability of all fifty games, the Dodgers have an average win probability of 58.42%. Extrapolated out over a 162 game season the Dodgers would win 94.65 games and the Diamondbacks would win 67.35. The Diamondbacks will likely struggle this year.

MLB Depth Charts
AZ Snakepit

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