Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/16


                                            *** Simulation Results ***

                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

RankDodgersGiantsOccurrencesRankDodgersGiantsOccurrences
12344285175603
21239665276573
33437395382572
43234455406553
52130585557552
64328245683496
73125955770475
81325225828458
94224675981434
104523866038422
112423826184421
120120656285378
134120296392373
141418826407350
155418376518349
165217816648339
175317666778339
182517526893338
193517446980328
201017257058303
210216997186295
222016657291286
233015417387282
245614747429258
250314667539254
261513757608250
275113737768247
286312267894246
294012117995233
303611828019231
316211488149227
322611428259219
3304110383102211
3464109884103199
3565107685101196
364610138690193
376197787104174
381689588210166
39508888996161
407382390310159
41058209169146
427280192110143
432773393100134
447472194105134
45377169509132
467171296113132
47677069789131
486069398510128
49476579997128
5017621100111121

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/15


                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

RankDodgersGiantsOccurrencesRankDodgersGiantsOccurrences
12349835107530
21248255275502
33435945374499
42134955428495
53234775518448
61330785657444
70128735782435
82425745838398
94325725976389
103125646083369
110224146170363
124223736208353
131423386348353
144521566481343
151021556584302
160320486629298
172019886719268
182518496878265
194118356980250
201516877039242
213516187185240
223015847258237
230415777309234
245215547491231
255314897592220
265414787693219
270512157786215
285612007868203
295111947994198
302611788049190
311611548187180
3240113082110167
333611078395164
3463102784210157
356294985103154
366488686310152
37468318790148
386180188101147
39657928959140
400678190102133
415077691410132
422768592211131
431768393010127
44726619496120
453764395104117
46605979689104
47475969711199
4873586989795
4967571996992
507154010031186

Disclaimer: 100K simulations.

Tuesday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Game Listings: Sorted by highest expected run totals.

AwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
NYNARIJennry MejiaBronson ArroyoARI-12612155.269-1151059.04
SEATEXBlake BeavanRobbie RossTEX-13112656.249100-1108.83
BOSCHAJake PeavyEric JohnsonBOS-14013557.898.5-1101008.47
KCHOUYorbi VenturaLucas HarrelKC-15314860.088.5-1101008.47
TBBALJake OdorizziMiguel GonzalezTB-10610150.868.5100-1108.33
STLMILShelby MillerMarco EstradaMIL-11210752.278-1201108.11
CLEDETZach McAllisterAnibal SanchezDET-15915461.018-1151058.04
OAKLAADaniel StrailyGarrett RichardsLAA-11010551.818-1151058.04
TORMINBrandon MorrowPhil HughesTOR-12812355.658-1101007.97
CHNNYAJason HammelMasahiro TanakaNYA-20519566.678-105-1057.90
LANSFJosh BeckettTim LincecumSF-11310852.497.5-1151057.54
PITCINGerrit ColeMike LeakePIT-11110652.047.5100-1107.33
ATLPHIDavid HaleCliff LeePHI-15014559.607-1201107.11
COLSDJuan NicasioRobby ErlinSD-11811353.607-105-1056.90
WASMIAStephen StrasburgToby KoehlerWAS-17817163.577105-1156.76

Game Listings: Sorted by largest favorite to win.

AwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
CHNNYAJason HammelMasahiro TanakaNYA-20519566.678-105-1057.90
WASMIAStephen StrasburgToby KoehlerWAS-17817163.577105-1156.76
CLEDETZach McAllisterAnibal SanchezDET-15915461.018-1151058.04
KCHOUYorbi VenturaLucas HarrelKC-15314860.088.5-1101008.47
ATLPHIDavid HaleCliff LeePHI-15014559.607-1201107.11
BOSCHAJake PeavyEric JohnsonBOS-14013557.898.5-1101008.47
SEATEXBlake BeavanRobbie RossTEX-13112656.249100-1108.83
TORMINBrandon MorrowPhil HughesTOR-12812355.658-1101007.97
NYNARIJennry MejiaBronson ArroyoARI-12612155.269-1151059.04
COLSDJuan NicasioRobby ErlinSD-11811353.607-105-1056.90
LANSFJosh BeckettTim LincecumSF-11310852.497.5-1151057.54
STLMILShelby MillerMarco EstradaMIL-11210752.278-1201108.11
PITCINGerrit ColeMike LeakePIT-11110652.047.5100-1107.33
OAKLAADaniel StrailyGarrett RichardsLAA-11010551.818-1151058.04
TBBALJake OdorizziMiguel GonzalezTB-10610150.868.5100-1108.33

Note: Opening lines.

Monday, April 14, 2014

Monday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest expected run totals

AwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigTotal Exp Runs
NYNARIZack WheelerJosh CollmenterARI-12011554.029101-1118.81
SEATEXRoenis EliasColby LewisTEX-12211253.929105-1258.69
OAKLAAJesse ChavezHector SantiagoLAA-10910451.578-105-1057.90
ATLPHIErvin SantanaRoberto HernandezATL-12712255.468-102-1087.86
TBBALClay ArcherWei-Yin ChenTB-11210752.277.5-1151057.54
PITCINWandy RodriguezHomer BaileyCIN-11911453.817.5-1151057.54
STLMILLance LynnMatt GarzaMIL-11811353.607.5-1101007.47
WASMIAJordan ZimmermannBrad HandWAS-14013057.457.5-110-1107.40
COLSDJordan LylesEric StultsSD-11511052.947100-1106.83

Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest win expectancies

AwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigTotal Exp Runs
WASMIAJordan ZimmermannBrad HandWAS-14013057.457.5-110-1107.40
ATLPHIErvin SantanaRoberto HernandezATL-12712255.468-102-1087.86
NYNARIZack WheelerJosh CollmenterARI-12011554.029101-1118.81
SEATEXRoenis EliasColby LewisTEX-12211253.929105-1258.69
PITCINWandy RodriguezHomer BaileyCIN-11911453.817.5-1151057.54
STLMILLance LynnMatt GarzaMIL-11811353.607.5-1101007.47
COLSDJordan LylesEric StultsSD-11511052.947100-1106.83
TBBALClay ArcherWei-Yin ChenTB-11210752.277.5-1151057.54
OAKLAAJesse ChavezHector SantiagoLAA-10910451.578-105-1057.90

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Sunday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest expected run totals

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigTotal Runs
HOUTEXBrian OberholtzerMartin PerezTEX-17016362.489-1101008.97
BOSNYAFelix DoubrontIvan NovaNYA-10610150.869-1101008.97
LANARIDan HarenTrevor CahillLAN-11511052.948.5-1231138.65
MIAPHIHugo AlvarezKyle KendrickPHI-12712255.468.5-1221128.64
TORBALMark BuehrleUbaldo JimenezBAL-10910451.578.5-1201108.61
CLECHACorey KluberJose QuintanaCHA-11911453.818.5-107-1038.43
KCMINJason VargasKevin CorreiaKC-12311854.658.5-105-1058.40
PITMILCharlie MortonKyle LohseMIL-13012556.048.5110-1208.19
TBCINCarlos RamosTony CingraniCIN-13813357.548110-1207.69
NYNLAABartolo ColonC.J. WilsonLAA-14413958.597.5-105-1057.40
COLSFTyler ChatwoodTim HudsonSF-16716062.057.5100-1107.33
OAKSEAScott KazmirChris YoungOAK-13412456.337.5-105-1157.33
WASATLGio GonzalezAaron HarangWAS-11511052.947.5103-1137.28
CHNSTLEdwin JacksonMichael WachaSTL-21520567.747-1121027.00
DETSDMax ScherzerTyson RossDET-14614158.936.5-105-1056.40


Game Listings: Ranked by largest to smallest win expectancies

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigTotal Runs
CHNSTLEdwin JacksonMichael WachaSTL-21520567.747-1121027.00
HOUTEXBrian OberholtzerMartin PerezTEX-17016362.489-1101008.97
COLSFTyler ChatwoodTim HudsonSF-16716062.057.5100-1107.33
DETSDMax ScherzerTyson RossDET-14614158.936.5-105-1056.40
NYNLAABartolo ColonC.J. WilsonLAA-14413958.597.5-105-1057.40
TBCINCarlos RamosTony CingraniCIN-13813357.548110-1207.69
OAKSEAScott KazmirChris YoungOAK-13412456.337.5-105-1157.33
PITMILCharlie MortonKyle LohseMIL-13012556.048.5110-1208.19
MIAPHIHugo AlvarezKyle KendrickPHI-12712255.468.5-1221128.64
KCMINJason VargasKevin CorreiaKC-12311854.658.5-105-1058.40
CLECHACorey KluberJose QuintanaCHA-11911453.818.5-107-1038.43
LANARIDan HarenTrevor CahillLAN-11511052.948.5-1231138.65
WASATLGio GonzalezAaron HarangWAS-11511052.947.5103-1137.28
TORBALMark BuehrleUbaldo JimenezBAL-10910451.578.5-1201108.61
BOSNYAFelix DoubrontIvan NovaNYA-10610150.869-1101008.97

Note: Opening lines.

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Saturday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest expected total runs

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigOver %Total Runs
HOUTEXJarred CosartTony ScheppersTEX-15815360.869.5-11010051.229.47
TORBALDustin HutchisonBud NorrisBAL-11911453.819105-11547.628.76
BOSNYAJohn LackeyHiroki KurodaNYA-11010551.818.5-109-10150.988.46
CLECHAJustin MastersonFelix PaulinoCLE-12712255.468-12211253.928.14
LANARIZack GreinkeWade MileyLAN-12912455.858-11210251.698.00
PITMILEdinson VolquezYovani GallardoMIL-15214759.928-11010051.227.97
MIAPHINathan EovaldiJohn PettibonePHI-11310852.498-105-10550.007.90
COLSFBrian AndersonMatt CainSF-13813357.547.5-11510552.387.54
KCMINJames ShieldsRicky NolascoKC-14413958.597.5-107-10350.507.43
TBCINAlex CobbAlfredo SimonTB-12812355.657.5100-11048.787.33
NYNLAAJonathan NieseJered WeaverLAA-16315761.547.5105-11547.627.26
OAKSEASonny GrayErasmo RamirezOAK-11410952.727.5112-12246.087.16
WASATLTyler JordanAlex WoodATL-12612155.267-11510552.387.04
CHNSTLCarlos VillanuevaAdam WainwrightSTL-21320367.537109-11946.736.70
DETSDJustin VerlanderIan KennedyDET-13112656.246.5107-11747.176.23


Game Listings: Ranked by biggest to smallest win expectancies

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigOver %Total Runs
CHNSTLCarlos VillanuevaAdam WainwrightSTL-21320367.537109-11946.736.70
NYNLAAJonathan NieseJered WeaverLAA-16315761.547.5105-11547.627.26
HOUTEXJarred CosartTony ScheppersTEX-15815360.869.5-11010051.229.47
PITMILEdinson VolquezYovani GallardoMIL-15214759.928-11010051.227.97
KCMINJames ShieldsRicky NolascoKC-14413958.597.5-107-10350.507.43
COLSFBrian AndersonMatt CainSF-13813357.547.5-11510552.387.54
DETSDJustin VerlanderIan KennedyDET-13112656.246.5107-11747.176.23
LANARIZack GreinkeWade MileyLAN-12912455.858-11210251.698.00
TBCINAlex CobbAlfredo SimonTB-12812355.657.5100-11048.787.33
CLECHAJustin MastersonFelix PaulinoCLE-12712255.468-12211253.928.14
WASATLTyler JordanAlex WoodATL-12612155.267-11510552.387.04
TORBALDustin HutchisonBud NorrisBAL-11911453.819105-11547.628.76
OAKSEASonny GrayErasmo RamirezOAK-11410952.727.5112-12246.087.16
MIAPHINathan EovaldiJohn PettibonePHI-11310852.498-105-10550.007.90
BOSNYAJohn LackeyHiroki KurodaNYA-11010551.818.5-109-10150.988.46

Friday, April 11, 2014

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/12


                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersDbacksOccurrencesRankDodgersDbacksOccurrences
1343461751176575
2233283852846564
3452906453106549
4432393454386505
5322346255826403
6122240256856367
7562147357286237
8541966258486122
9241867159055918
10421854460865846
11531750561505770
12351713062585766
13211651863875412
14131587164685264
15311517665815093
16521492566934814
17251470967184757
18651424768604755
19671395969394720
20641356770924573
21141355371064554
22411317172894546
23631306573944444
24461292274294406
25361268275494344
26621145676954013
27261144977593794
28151111178963765
29511075979703750
3074966980913554
3176962681073433
3273940382693393
33759392831033334
3437904784193329
35478932853103305
3601877586973216
37728652871023132
38618617881043130
39168595894103015
40578541902102984
4127849191792973
4278834692982922
4302807293802797
44037956941052707
45307658955102603
4620750796082592
47047063971012487
48406804981102327
49716804991132241
508367441009102235

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation Results 4/11




                Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores (1 million simualtions)
RankDodgersDbacksOccurrencesRankDodgersDbacksOccurrences
1343414251016435
2453047652206427
3232970853406408
4432395154586365
5562309755026263
6322240556176230
7542073457876201
8121884158036196
9421816659286157
10531786060685914
11241769361045724
12351743662505381
13671552963895214
14651541764105117
15521493365395008
16641447566934990
17251437167944943
18211432468054867
19311430969814744
20131356270494689
21461355871184648
22631342472604580
23361275073924564
24411244374294553
25141209875954438
26621151176594310
27261127477964086
28761043178064002
29511038879693831
30751028080973738
31741019781913505
3215998682703465
33739701833103463
3447967084983426
35789416851033394
36579386861043381
37379363874103320
3872879888793310
3927848389193244
40618465901023212
41168013912103197
42837104925102967
43847061931052948
4448695694072944
45856898959102710
4638683296802647
47306740971062608
48866540986102398
49826523991012371
507165181003112362

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Series Preview


The Dodgers and Diamondbacks face off in a three game series in the desert this weekend, their first meeting since the ridiculous two games played weeks ago in Australia.  While the Dodgers currently fair better than the Diamondbacks in the standings both teams have had their fair share of troubles since returning from down under.  The Diamondbacks have been getting terrible pitching, while the Dodgers have been getting pitchers injured.  Expect a lot of runs to be scored in this series and the Diamondbacks play in a hitters park.

Here is a quick break down of the pitching matchups.

DayDodgers SPDbacks SPSkinny on Dbacks Starter
FridayHyun-Jin RyuBrandon McCarthyDoesn't miss too many bats, trying to re-invent himself as ground ball pitcher but more of a HR pitcher so far.
SaturdayZack GreinkeWade MileyHas been solid so far and also tends to induce ground balls.
SundayDan HarenTrevor CahillPretty extreme GB pitcher has been awful so far, fighting to keep rotation spot.

Bullpen
So, their starting pitching kind of sucks but how about their bullpen?  We should be seeing quite a bit of their bullpen so is it any good?  Well yeah, it is pretty good - at least on paper.  None of their relief pitchers are as good as Kenley Jansen but Addison Reed is a solid closer (don't get fooled by his girl name) and J.J. Putz is a very solid setup man.  Oliver Perez and Joe Thatcher are the lefty specialists who will be called on to deliver against the likes of Crawford, Gonzalez, Gordon and Ethier.  And watch out for Brad Ziegler the submarining right hander that is a double play inducing wizard.  You don't want one of our slow runners up with a man on first base and less than two outs facing this guy.  If you see Ryan Rowland-Smith (the guy too cool to drop his maiden name) or Josh Collmenter in the game you know things have probably gone well for the boys in blue.

What about Defense?
On the defensive side of things the Diamondbacks are pretty solid.  Some metrics may think the Trumbo is a liability in LF but the eye balls see him close to average out there.  On the plus side the Diamondbacks defense is lead by Gerardo Parra who is close to a +10 run right fielder as his throwing accuracy is truly amazing and he knows when and how to hit his cutoff man unlike the Dodgers cannon arm that plays RF when his thumb is healthy.  Next best is first baseman Paul Goldschmidt who truly is an amazing all around player.  The guy belts HRs, steals bases at a great clip for someone who plays his position and he is around a +7 fielder.  Other above average fielders on the team are catcher Miguel Montero and second baseman Aaron Hill.

Offense
Of course the Diamondbacks can hit well, especially playing in their hitter friendly park.  They have the components to mash LH pitchers pretty well in Paul Goldschmidt and the red hot Mark Trumbo.  Gerardo Parra and A.J. Pollock take turns at the top or bottom of the lineup depending on the pitching matchup and provide good speed and will provide a challenge to FedEx/Butera behind the plate.  Eric Chavez is their masher off the bench to mainly pinch hit against RH pitchers and Tony Campana is an excellent late inning pinch running threat.

Here is the typical lineup that the Diamondbacks use against both RH/LH pitchers.

vs RHPvs LHP
1RF-Gerardo ParraCF-A.J. Pollock
22B-Aaron Hill2B-Aaron Hill
31B-Paul Goldschmidt1B-Paul Goldschmidt
43B-Martin Prado3B-Martin Prado
5C-Miguel MonteroC-Miguel Montero
6LF-Mark TrumboLF-Mark Trumbo
7SS-Chris OwingsSS-Chris Owings
8CF-A.J. PollockRF-Gerardo Parra
9P-Pitchers SpotP-Pitchers Spot


Wednesday, April 09, 2014

Tigers vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/9




                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankTigersDodgersOccurrencesRankTigersDodgersOccurrences
1234725751175750
2124257952065728
3343807053825455
4323382454835137
5213088155765116
6432669756575089
7132571157705039
8312555058814961
9452533159844356
10422397160284175
11242377061383891
12012271862073789
13411959063183780
14141913064853532
15021820365783453
16531774066923415
17541759967483377
18521723668803217
19201692069933189
20101644170913016
21251640571582963
22351631772862891
23301550273942672
24031531474292568
25511472975872426
26561462376082418
27151334977682406
28401285078192399
29621212879392312
30631186980952094
31041173781902076
32611069282492053
336410617831021993
342610561841031975
353610516851011892
36509848861041618
37469717872101601
38659638883101570
3916893489591539
4005836790961538
4172831991891480
4273777592091424
43677415931101391
4471736294691306
45607203951001253
4674675696971249
47276677971051240
48376353981121193
49475948994101186
507558611001131058

Note: One million games simulated.

Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Tigers vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/8



                              Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankTigersDodgersOccurrencesRankTigersDodgersOccurrences
1234801251475576
2124346052065302
3343854653705291
4323556254175156
5213269755835000
6432749356814935
7312715857764886
8132548558574693
9422545959844196
10452494360283869
11242332261383578
12012331262803546
13412089063923437
14201863364853389
15141833965073368
16531810066183350
17521802167783169
18101767868913081
19021764969933064
20541743770483035
21301709171582714
22351635672862699
23251600273942573
24511588174292300
25031439975872264
26401404176392200
27561383677682187
28621268278902169
291512326791022096
30631189980082035
31611128081192029
320410780821031947
33501074383951915
346410591841011858
35361011785491821
36269875861041523
3765963187961480
3846920188591414
39728472892101383
4016823590891321
41737880913101266
4260774592091250
43717683931001246
44057536941051224
45746915951101190
4667688796691176
4727607997971158
48375904981111134
49755682991121113
508256011004101089

Saturday, April 05, 2014

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/6



                             Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankGiantsDodgersOccurrencesRankGiantsDodgersOccurrences
1125283951745130
2235145352475049
3343700553284671
4213582954184606
5323406455754153
6013311956573903
7133101057383811
8312614658823752
9022601459703729
10242473360083674
11432438861763510
12142322062833430
13032238463813388
14422230564193094
15102210465482981
16452202366292915
17202021567842881
18411855168392385
19251715469092358
20041649670782355
21301619271852321
22151595672582320
23351534873802303
24521474674922185
25531471375912124
26541442376932023
27511257177861913
28051209678491908
294011756792101893
305611511801101884
31261102581681707
32161087182941696
33361027483871541
34629445843101517
35639424850101490
3661846386901398
3750838587951385
38068353881021308
3946833189591293
40648278901031182
41657489911011167
42177369922111136
43277247934101110
44376226941111093
4572608095691058
46735838961041008
476057429789984
480756779896974
4971537399311916
50675307100011837

Note: 1 million games simulated.

Friday, April 04, 2014

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/5



                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankGiantsDodgersOccurrencesRankGiantsDodgersOccurrences
1234799451475272
2124793552704953
3343634353824695
4213571054754624
5323550755814419
6012899756574326
7312839457074297
8132678658284254
9432561659834075
10422435060764070
11242264661183933
12452251662383796
13102201163843432
14022156964803236
15412126865483024
16202083266082868
17141946967922837
18301825368852798
19031707269782790
20521669070292729
21531604171192689
22251562072912636
23541536473582547
24351511574932482
25511510575392420
26401416476862276
27151304577681997
28041241978941984
29561234079491970
30621114580901936
31631079881871816
32501060682091773
336110404832101707
34369847841021686
35269647851101676
36649198861011580
3705911787951542
38168995883101531
3946864889591489
40658262901031440
41727503914101241
4260748692961217
43717039931041166
4473676794891146
4527656495691137
46066129962111125
47176110971001118
48676068980101103
4974589399111998
50375870100311979

Note: 1 million games simulated.

Wednesday, April 02, 2014

Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 4/2


AwayHomeStarter Starter FavoriteDodgers RunsPadres RunsWin %Total Runs
DodgersPadresDan HarenTyson RossPadres2.9023.10654.6%6.01


                                Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersPadresOccurrencesRankDodgersPadresOccurrences
11256975167417
22350915275391
32142905370385
40140865482383
53238465518382
63434025628379
71332805747358
80230025881326
91029475976319
103128116038308
114325576183308
120324826208296
132423926357293
142023476484269
151423376580231
164223196619227
174119576748225
184518946885211
190418586991205
203017017029200
211515797192196
225315317209194
232515117378184
245214617493182
253514067539178
265413997686163
2751129977110154
2805128378102153
294012577958152
302610078090152
31169598194151
32629588287129
335691883101129
34639088449119
35618508595117
365084286103112
37068378768109
383683588210108
39647708901095
40467009031095
4165691915987
42176649211182
4327618939682
44725899410078
45605849541071
46715539610571
47735509710468
48075389811266
49375149921163
507449410011163

Tuesday, April 01, 2014

Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 4/1




                            Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores


RankDodgersPadresCountRankDodgersPadresCount
1125607651814259
2235016752674171
3214481053074118
4323892054824040
5013834455473693
6343328656753660
7103177957833417
8313175558803345
9132925559183229
10202816560283213
11022606661763151
12432538862572978
13422453563382679
14242234764912583
15302201665842580
16412179166082514
17032038567922432
18142032968482171
19451887169902101
20401601570852063
21521577571931973
22511507272191966
23531497673291964
24041481474781742
25251451075391597
26541412276861587
27151339777581573
28351309478941547
295011382791011497
306210137801021444
3161991281091422
3205989682871313
3356948583681279
34639188841001257
35268861851031173
3616861486491163
37367912872101154
3864779788951150
39607743891101118
4065694190310941
414666389159911
4271647892111888
4306638293010845
447263799496835
4573563895104829
4627538996112817
4717535897410759
487051149869675
4937458999111670
50744562100105663

Notes: 1 million games were simulated.

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 3/30



                                             Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

RankLANSDCountRankLANSDCount
1126337251743538
2235044252813329
3215012753183232
4014962954823187
5104108055672959
6323884656472914
7023362557752820
8133268158802766
9203264859282751
10313249260082678
11343046861832662
12032605662762331
13432352263572247
14302308964382153
15422279665912023
16242217766841957
17142214867921851
18412113968191736
19041862369291640
20451567070901617
21401540471481561
22151453072851548
23521387673931539
24251377774091518
25511340475391242
26531311376581175
270512291771011170
28541211278861130
29351172579781114
30501053880941075
31168849811021071
3262871782110975
336184208387949
3426824284210929
3506786885100926
3663762086010877
376070408749870
385669938895867
393668508968864
4064633790103848
4165555491310647
424655199296623
4371546893104617
4417544094111605
457252819559600
4607475296112567
4727473397110536
4873457098111535
4970438499113531
50373839100211509

Notes: Game simulated one million times.

Tuesday, March 04, 2014

Best Lineup - Pittsburgh Pirates


Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Pittsburgh Pirates.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.  In fact, I know that many of the results will not happen due to manager philosophies and veteran favoritism but these are the most optimal lineups that the simulator spit out.  In some cases the top couple of lineups had very small differences in results. The starting nine players were taken from MLBDepthCharts website.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics | Astros | Red Sox
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants | Brewers | Dodgers

                   Pirates 2014 ZIPS Hitting Projections
K%BB%AVEOBPSLGOPSwOBA
Jose Tabata14.9%7.4%0.2650.3290.3810.7100.312
Starling Marte23.8%4.3%0.2650.3180.4300.7480.324
Neil Walker17.7%8.3%0.2610.3300.4180.7480.324
Gaby Sanchez15.7%10.0%0.2520.3330.4010.7340.322
Andrew McCutchen17.5%11.3%0.2880.3750.4840.8590.367
Pedro Alvarez32.0%8.9%0.2340.3030.4650.7680.328
Russell Martin19.4%10.5%0.2340.3260.3840.7100.315
Jordy Mercer17.6%5.7%0.2520.3020.3850.6870.295

See the results after the jump