Saturday, April 12, 2014

Saturday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest expected total runs

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigOver %Total Runs
HOUTEXJarred CosartTony ScheppersTEX-15815360.869.5-11010051.229.47
TORBALDustin HutchisonBud NorrisBAL-11911453.819105-11547.628.76
BOSNYAJohn LackeyHiroki KurodaNYA-11010551.818.5-109-10150.988.46
CLECHAJustin MastersonFelix PaulinoCLE-12712255.468-12211253.928.14
LANARIZack GreinkeWade MileyLAN-12912455.858-11210251.698.00
PITMILEdinson VolquezYovani GallardoMIL-15214759.928-11010051.227.97
MIAPHINathan EovaldiJohn PettibonePHI-11310852.498-105-10550.007.90
COLSFBrian AndersonMatt CainSF-13813357.547.5-11510552.387.54
KCMINJames ShieldsRicky NolascoKC-14413958.597.5-107-10350.507.43
TBCINAlex CobbAlfredo SimonTB-12812355.657.5100-11048.787.33
NYNLAAJonathan NieseJered WeaverLAA-16315761.547.5105-11547.627.26
OAKSEASonny GrayErasmo RamirezOAK-11410952.727.5112-12246.087.16
WASATLTyler JordanAlex WoodATL-12612155.267-11510552.387.04
CHNSTLCarlos VillanuevaAdam WainwrightSTL-21320367.537109-11946.736.70
DETSDJustin VerlanderIan KennedyDET-13112656.246.5107-11747.176.23


Game Listings: Ranked by biggest to smallest win expectancies

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigOver %Total Runs
CHNSTLCarlos VillanuevaAdam WainwrightSTL-21320367.537109-11946.736.70
NYNLAAJonathan NieseJered WeaverLAA-16315761.547.5105-11547.627.26
HOUTEXJarred CosartTony ScheppersTEX-15815360.869.5-11010051.229.47
PITMILEdinson VolquezYovani GallardoMIL-15214759.928-11010051.227.97
KCMINJames ShieldsRicky NolascoKC-14413958.597.5-107-10350.507.43
COLSFBrian AndersonMatt CainSF-13813357.547.5-11510552.387.54
DETSDJustin VerlanderIan KennedyDET-13112656.246.5107-11747.176.23
LANARIZack GreinkeWade MileyLAN-12912455.858-11210251.698.00
TBCINAlex CobbAlfredo SimonTB-12812355.657.5100-11048.787.33
CLECHAJustin MastersonFelix PaulinoCLE-12712255.468-12211253.928.14
WASATLTyler JordanAlex WoodATL-12612155.267-11510552.387.04
TORBALDustin HutchisonBud NorrisBAL-11911453.819105-11547.628.76
OAKSEASonny GrayErasmo RamirezOAK-11410952.727.5112-12246.087.16
MIAPHINathan EovaldiJohn PettibonePHI-11310852.498-105-10550.007.90
BOSNYAJohn LackeyHiroki KurodaNYA-11010551.818.5-109-10150.988.46

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

How do you convert over under run total probabilities to expected total runs?

Xeifrank said...

I have an algorithm that estimates it based off of past empirical data. It is just that though, an estimate - but I'm confident it is pretty accurate but not exact of course. Great question. :)