Saturday, April 19, 2014

Current Park Factors - Both Actual and Vegas


Park factors may not be that interesting to most people and especially this early in the season when there is so much noise involved in them. But something that I think is interesting is the Vegas park factors that I have calculated. Park factors are determined by calculating how many runs/game are scored in away and home games for each team. This can be calculated easy enough just by keeping track of how many away and home games each team plays and how many runs were scored in those games. In calculating the Vegas park factors I substitute the actual runs scored in each game with how many runs, Vegas or the betting public who are actually risking money on the results, expect to be scored. This can be easily calulated/estimated by tracking the "run total" for each game and the over/under vig. Below is a table sorted by actual current park factors but I also list the current Vegas park factor.

TeamActual PFVegas PF
Braves1.710.98
Rays1.580.95
Cardinals1.520.97
Rockies1.471.42
Red Sox1.451.04
Cubs1.431.11
Dodgers1.400.94
Angels1.280.96
Tigers1.201.14
Blue Jays1.121.08
Marlins1.050.96
Astros1.041.01
Rangers1.021.05
White Sox0.980.87
Reds0.981.04
Royals0.971.01
Mets0.910.87
Phillies0.910.85
Pirates0.900.89
Dbacks0.901.03
Twins0.871.03
Indians0.851.01
A's0.830.94
Padres0.830.89
Giants0.820.98
Yankees0.761.04
Nats0.641.00
Mariners0.630.95
Orioles0.581.03
Brewers0.451.04

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