Rays vs Indians - AL WildCard Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Rays	Indians	Occurrences		Rank	Rays	Indians	Occurrences
1	1	2	51522		51	7	4	4913
2	2	3	49197		52	1	8	4537
3	2	1	40859		53	4	7	4490
4	3	2	37421		54	2	8	4489
5	3	4	34646		55	7	5	4367
6	0	1	33286		56	7	0	4194
7	3	1	29224		57	7	6	3688
8	1	3	28554		58	5	7	3665
9	1	0	27262		59	8	2	3628
10	4	3	26146		60	0	8	3622
11	0	2	24932		61	3	8	3618
12	4	2	24098		62	8	1	3548
13	2	0	23317		63	8	3	3207
14	2	4	22288		64	4	8	2944
15	1	4	21749		65	2	9	2924
16	0	3	21501		66	1	9	2862
17	4	5	20662		67	8	4	2806
18	4	1	19846		68	8	0	2432
19	3	0	17980		69	0	9	2369
20	0	4	16730		70	8	5	2320
21	5	2	15502		71	7	8	2310
22	5	3	15466		72	3	9	2275
23	5	4	15170		73	9	2	2150
24	1	5	15155		74	5	8	2142
25	2	5	14991		75	9	1	1953
26	3	5	13935		76	8	6	1876
27	5	1	13542		77	9	3	1857
28	4	0	13080		78	1	10	1817
29	0	5	11160		79	4	9	1691
30	5	6	10599		80	2	10	1689
31	2	6	10465		81	6	8	1580
32	1	6	9981		82	8	7	1574
33	6	2	9567		83	9	4	1538
34	6	3	9494		84	0	10	1438
35	5	0	9451		85	9	0	1417
36	6	1	8906		86	3	10	1403
37	3	6	8746		87	5	9	1276
38	6	4	8548		88	9	5	1254
39	0	6	8087		89	10	2	1199
40	6	5	7614		90	4	10	1091
41	4	6	7497		91	1	11	1057
42	1	7	6849		92	2	11	1053
43	2	7	6653		93	10	1	1042
44	6	0	6204		94	9	6	1038
45	7	2	6042		95	10	3	1016
46	3	7	5817		96	10	4	903
47	7	1	5667		97	8	9	900
48	7	3	5553		98	6	9	875
49	0	7	5511		99	3	11	860
50	6	7	5050		100	9	7	819

Rays vs Rangers - AL WildCard Play-In Game Simulation Results

The Braves Have Only Seen The Piece Of Crap Dodgers Team

The Braves and Dodgers faced each other seven times during the regular season with the Braves winning 5 out of 7 games.  All seven games were back when the Dodgers were a crappy team.  The Braves never had to face Kershaw and only had to face Greinke once.  A game the Dodgers won 5-0.  Below is a list of the seven games, showing the starting pitching matchup for each game and the Vegas win probabilities for each game.

@ATL May 17th, Loss 5-8, Ryu vs Maholm, Braves 58.1%
@ATL May 18th, Loss 1-3, Capuano vs Medlen, Braves 62.9%
@ATL May 19th, Loss 2-5, Magill vs Minor, Braves 64.3%
@LAD June 6th, WIN 5-0, Hudson vs Greinke, Braves 50.4%
@LAD June 7th, WIN 2-1, Maholm vs Ryu, Dodgers 52.5%
@LAD June 8th, LOSS 1-2, Medlen vs Fife, Braves 56.2%
@LAD June 9th, LOSS 1-8, Minor vs Magill, Braves 61.8%

Reds vs Pirates - NL WildCard Game Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Reds	Pirates	Occurrences		Rank	Reds	Pirates	Occurrences
1	1	2	62779		51	4	7	4008
2	0	1	57497		52	1	8	3851
3	2	3	48423		53	0	8	3791
4	2	1	42044		54	6	7	3646
5	0	2	39518		55	7	4	3619
6	1	0	36247		56	2	8	3512
7	1	3	33464		57	8	1	3424
8	3	2	31816		58	8	2	3336
9	3	4	29768		59	7	5	2944
10	0	3	29268		60	5	7	2871
11	2	0	27457		61	8	3	2842
12	3	1	26510		62	8	0	2773
13	1	4	23985		63	3	8	2708
14	2	4	23120		64	1	9	2551
15	0	4	19978		65	0	9	2516
16	4	3	19802		66	7	6	2456
17	4	2	19448		67	8	4	2195
18	3	0	17841		68	9	1	2144
19	4	1	17115		69	2	9	2139
20	4	5	16209		70	9	2	2025
21	2	5	15872		71	4	8	1994
22	1	5	15039		72	5	8	1704
23	0	5	13777		73	3	9	1684
24	4	0	13168		74	9	3	1664
25	3	5	13021		75	8	5	1652
26	5	2	12658		76	9	0	1639
27	5	1	11838		77	1	10	1540
28	5	3	11713		78	0	10	1487
29	5	4	10721		79	7	8	1484
30	1	6	9898		80	9	4	1341
31	0	6	9768		81	8	6	1331
32	5	0	9224		82	2	10	1263
33	2	6	9017		83	6	8	1261
34	3	6	8391		84	10	1	1254
35	6	2	8124		85	4	9	1194
36	5	6	8003		86	10	2	1140
37	6	1	7920		87	3	10	1064
38	6	3	7118		88	10	3	995
39	4	6	6503		89	10	0	986
40	1	7	6362		90	8	7	958
41	6	0	6345		91	9	5	941
42	6	4	6238		92	5	9	924
43	0	7	6204		93	1	11	912
44	2	7	5530		94	0	11	842
45	7	1	5358		95	10	4	790
46	6	5	5312		96	2	11	781
47	7	2	5054		97	4	10	752
48	3	7	4523		98	6	9	736
49	7	3	4389		99	11	1	722
50	7	0	4286		100	9	6	702

Playoff Simulations

For those five or six people who read my simulation charts. I will not be simulated any Dodgers games the final weekend of the season and instead focus on getting all of the rosters, depth charts and statistics for the 10 playoff bound teams so I can simulate every post-season game for all teams.

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences
1	2	3	48604		51	6	0	5232
2	1	2	45598		52	7	1	5184
3	3	4	37888		53	1	8	5137
4	3	2	36676		54	2	8	4970
5	2	1	35611		55	7	5	4792
6	1	3	29105		56	3	8	4351
7	4	3	28068		57	7	6	4307
8	3	1	26208		58	5	7	4306
9	0	1	25157		59	0	8	3697
10	2	4	24378		60	8	2	3580
11	4	2	23848		61	2	9	3515
12	4	5	23614		62	4	8	3461
13	1	4	22556		63	8	3	3422
14	0	2	20594		64	1	9	3404
15	1	0	19987		65	7	0	3253
16	0	3	19513		66	8	4	3093
17	4	1	18756		67	8	1	2982
18	2	0	18238		68	3	9	2894
19	2	5	17482		69	8	5	2676
20	5	4	17323		70	7	8	2668
21	5	3	16343		71	5	8	2585
22	3	5	15970		72	0	9	2534
23	1	5	15917		73	1	10	2396
24	5	2	15610		74	2	10	2384
25	0	4	15202		75	4	9	2346
26	3	0	15192		76	8	6	2201
27	5	1	12995		77	3	10	2076
28	5	6	12596		78	9	2	2045
29	2	6	11862		79	9	3	2008
30	4	0	11590		80	8	0	1979
31	3	6	10694		81	6	8	1942
32	1	6	10533		82	8	7	1865
33	0	5	10404		83	9	4	1785
34	6	3	10029		84	0	10	1731
35	6	2	9908		85	9	1	1665
36	6	4	9485		86	5	9	1606
37	6	5	9077		87	2	11	1584
38	4	6	8863		88	1	11	1538
39	6	1	8417		89	9	5	1426
40	5	0	8162		90	4	10	1407
41	0	6	7538		91	3	11	1377
42	2	7	7512		92	9	6	1203
43	1	7	7383		93	0	11	1145
44	3	7	6956		94	8	9	1126
45	7	3	6120		95	6	9	1120
46	6	7	6119		96	9	0	1078
47	7	2	6119		97	10	2	1070
48	4	7	5561		98	2	12	1046
49	7	4	5401		99	10	3	1017
50	0	7	5370		100	5	10	1009

Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation Results 9/26

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 9/25

Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurences		Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurences
1	2	3	44324		51	0	5	5874
2	3	4	39783		52	8	3	5838
3	1	2	35929		53	8	2	5742
4	3	2	35098		54	5	7	5477
5	4	3	30421		55	8	1	5078
6	2	1	28783		56	1	7	5008
7	4	5	27704		57	8	4	5001
8	4	2	26086		58	7	0	4972
9	3	1	25107		59	8	5	4162
10	1	3	22149		60	0	6	4150
11	2	4	21456		61	3	8	4143
12	4	1	20909		62	2	8	4125
13	5	4	20535		63	7	8	4032
14	5	3	20245		64	4	8	3830
15	5	2	19323		65	9	2	3568
16	0	1	16813		66	1	8	3515
17	5	6	16608		67	9	3	3362
18	1	4	16418		68	8	6	3289
19	3	5	16266		69	5	8	3251
20	5	1	16144		70	8	0	3090
21	2	0	15135		71	9	1	3037
22	2	5	14783		72	9	4	2937
23	3	0	14609		73	0	7	2925
24	1	0	13852		74	3	9	2777
25	6	2	13723		75	2	9	2771
26	6	3	13611		76	8	7	2758
27	0	2	13046		77	6	8	2560
28	4	0	13037		78	4	9	2457
29	6	4	12661		79	9	5	2450
30	6	5	11796		80	1	9	2374
31	6	1	11731		81	0	8	1956
32	0	3	11727		82	10	2	1955
33	1	5	11330		83	5	9	1920
34	3	6	10492		84	9	6	1904
35	5	0	10407		85	10	3	1889
36	4	6	10167		86	2	10	1871
37	2	6	9751		87	9	0	1863
38	7	2	9322		88	3	10	1820
39	7	3	9231		89	10	4	1763
40	0	4	8627		90	8	9	1713
41	6	7	8590		91	10	1	1686
42	7	4	8196		92	6	9	1544
43	7	1	7954		93	1	10	1537
44	6	0	7541		94	4	10	1535
45	1	6	7306		95	9	7	1467
46	7	5	6929		96	0	9	1384
47	3	7	6406		97	10	5	1380
48	2	7	6273		98	3	11	1262
49	4	7	6054		99	9	8	1260
50	7	6	5993		100	7	9	1250

Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation Results 9/25

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurences		Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurences
1	2	3	4836		51	4	7	526
2	1	2	4460		52	7	6	493
3	3	4	3818		53	2	8	469
4	3	2	3688		54	7	5	463
5	2	1	3485		55	0	7	457
6	4	3	2750		56	8	2	451
7	3	1	2740		57	3	8	425
8	0	1	2694		58	5	7	409
9	1	3	2660		59	1	8	406
10	4	5	2449		60	7	0	402
11	4	2	2443		61	8	1	398
12	2	4	2240		62	8	3	372
13	1	0	2037		63	8	4	327
14	4	1	2028		64	4	8	318
15	1	4	1993		65	0	8	288
16	0	2	1970		66	7	8	284
17	2	0	1946		67	3	9	280
18	0	3	1730		68	2	9	274
19	3	0	1719		69	1	9	272
20	5	3	1707		70	8	5	264
21	5	2	1678		71	9	3	261
22	5	4	1641		72	5	8	256
23	2	5	1586		73	8	0	242
24	3	5	1478		74	9	2	229
25	5	1	1466		75	0	9	228
26	4	0	1378		76	9	4	227
27	1	5	1364		77	4	9	222
28	5	6	1307		78	8	6	219
29	0	4	1289		79	1	10	217
30	6	2	1121		80	8	7	217
31	6	3	1116		81	9	1	215
32	2	6	1032		82	2	10	202
33	6	1	1020		83	6	8	183
34	6	4	1013		84	3	10	181
35	3	6	997		85	2	11	159
36	5	0	986		86	9	5	154
37	1	6	936		87	10	2	149
38	6	5	926		88	9	0	148
39	4	6	888		89	4	10	142
40	0	5	849		90	5	9	142
41	7	3	700		91	0	10	138
42	7	2	687		92	10	3	134
43	6	0	680		93	9	6	122
44	2	7	663		94	10	4	122
45	7	1	662		95	1	11	120
46	3	7	654		96	8	9	117
47	6	7	627		97	6	9	115
48	0	6	622		98	3	11	110
49	1	7	622		99	10	1	106
50	7	4	611		100	9	7	100

Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation Results 9/24

Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 9/22

Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 9/20

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation Results 9/18

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/17

Rank	Dodgers	Dbacks	Occurences
1	3	4	30054
2	2	3	27131
3	4	5	26857
4	4	3	21402
5	5	6	20668
6	3	2	19537
7	5	4	18841
8	1	2	17917
9	5	3	16711
10	4	2	16662
11	2	4	16447
12	3	5	15302
13	6	5	14517
14	6	7	14384
15	5	2	14090
16	6	4	14056
17	1	3	13712
18	2	5	13491
19	6	3	13429
20	2	1	12870
21	3	1	12676
22	4	6	12532
23	1	4	11997
24	3	6	11942
25	4	1	11522
26	6	2	10999
27	7	4	10560
28	7	5	10392
29	2	6	10201
30	7	6	10089
31	7	3	9728
32	1	5	9524
33	7	8	9442
34	5	1	9435
35	4	7	8948
36	5	7	8636
37	3	7	8557
38	7	2	8485
39	6	1	8068
40	2	7	7504
41	8	5	7456
42	8	4	7430
43	1	6	7332
44	0	3	7280
45	8	3	7131
46	0	2	6782
47	0	1	6734
48	8	6	6673
49	4	8	6551
50	0	4	6530

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation Results 9/17

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/16

Rank	Dodgers	Dbacks	Occurences
1	3	4	34548
2	2	3	32749
3	4	5	28844
4	4	3	23591
5	3	2	22969
6	1	2	22722
7	5	6	21137
8	5	4	19385
9	4	2	18953
10	2	4	18284
11	5	3	17730
12	2	1	16186
13	3	5	16183
14	1	3	15772
15	3	1	15741
16	5	2	15517
17	2	5	14373
18	6	4	13782
19	4	1	13779
20	1	4	13737
21	6	5	13733
22	6	7	13547
23	6	3	13507
24	4	6	12176
25	3	6	11837
26	6	2	11355
27	1	5	11090
28	2	6	10871
29	5	1	10838
30	7	4	10098
31	0	1	9930
32	7	5	9397
33	7	3	9266
34	0	3	9143
35	0	2	8940
36	7	6	8934
37	3	7	8592
38	6	1	8396
39	7	2	8382
40	4	7	8372
41	7	8	8084
42	3	0	8072
43	1	6	7980
44	0	4	7957
45	2	0	7904
46	5	7	7843
47	2	7	7811
48	4	0	6796
49	1	0	6782
50	8	3	6668

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation Results 9/16

Giants vs Dodgers - Ides of September Simulation Results

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/14

Giants vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/13

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurences
1	1	2	63299
2	2	3	52536
3	0	1	50326
4	2	1	41940
5	3	4	33962
6	3	2	33754
7	1	0	33173
8	0	2	32807
9	1	3	31662
10	3	1	27540
11	2	0	26626
12	0	3	26284
13	1	4	23742
14	2	4	22838
15	4	3	21664
16	3	0	20132
17	4	2	20101
18	0	4	19701
19	4	1	18379
20	4	5	18303
21	1	5	16011
22	2	5	15827
23	4	0	13916
24	0	5	13366
25	3	5	13000
26	5	2	12842
27	5	3	12185
28	5	1	12170
29	5	4	11487
30	1	6	10093
31	2	6	9637
32	0	6	9113
33	5	0	8828
34	5	6	8712
35	3	6	8378
36	6	2	7897
37	6	1	7513
38	6	3	7149
39	1	7	6512
40	6	4	6427
41	4	6	6241
42	6	0	6058
43	0	7	6011
44	2	7	5937
45	6	5	5528
46	3	7	4871
47	7	1	4848
48	7	2	4718
49	7	3	4394
50	1	8	4304

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/13

Giants vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/12

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurences
1	2	3	49062
2	1	2	44716
3	3	4	39692
4	3	2	29432
5	1	3	28923
6	2	1	26815
7	2	4	25889
8	4	5	25782
9	0	1	24716
10	1	4	24574
11	4	3	23729
12	0	2	21391
13	0	3	20853
14	3	1	19975
15	2	5	19550
16	4	2	19440
17	1	5	17824
18	3	5	17500
19	0	4	17450
20	5	4	15485
21	4	1	14909
22	5	6	14672
23	5	3	14606
24	1	0	14332
25	5	2	13627
26	2	0	13048
27	2	6	12720
28	3	6	12229
29	0	5	12228
30	1	6	11703
31	3	0	10989
32	5	1	10501
33	4	6	10238
34	6	3	9828
35	6	4	9562
36	6	2	9241
37	6	5	9083
38	0	6	8996
39	4	0	8304
40	2	7	8255
41	1	7	8207
42	6	7	7497
43	3	7	7418
44	6	1	7288
45	4	7	6553
46	7	2	6313
47	7	3	6274
48	0	7	6139
49	5	0	5961
50	7	4	5888

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/12

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 9/11

Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurences		Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurences
1	1	2	55635		51	7	4	4984
2	2	3	52368		52	4	7	4821
3	3	4	37529		53	1	8	4266
4	0	1	37486		54	2	8	4093
5	2	1	35655		55	7	5	4015
6	3	2	32721		56	8	2	3909
7	1	3	31762		57	7	0	3821
8	0	2	28109		58	8	1	3750
9	3	1	26601		59	5	7	3662
10	2	4	25030		60	8	3	3491
11	0	3	23687		61	3	8	3447
12	1	4	23535		62	7	6	3243
13	4	3	23120		63	0	8	3241
14	1	0	22876		64	8	4	2811
15	4	2	21895		65	4	8	2724
16	4	5	21886		66	8	0	2619
17	2	0	20214		67	1	9	2574
18	4	1	18170		68	2	9	2526
19	2	5	17119		69	9	2	2474
20	0	4	16635		70	8	5	2453
21	3	0	16274		71	9	1	2337
22	1	5	15680		72	7	8	2283
23	3	5	15518		73	9	3	2254
24	5	2	14408		74	3	9	2213
25	5	3	14196		75	5	8	2200
26	5	4	13428		76	0	9	2036
27	5	1	12547		77	8	6	1847
28	0	5	12279		78	9	4	1803
29	4	0	12035		79	9	0	1758
30	5	6	11259		80	6	8	1738
31	1	6	10453		81	4	9	1597
32	2	6	10256		82	10	1	1595
33	3	6	9730		83	10	2	1551
34	6	2	9279		84	1	10	1507
35	6	3	8862		85	2	10	1503
36	6	1	8360		86	8	7	1457
37	0	6	8194		87	9	5	1360
38	5	0	8120		88	10	3	1343
39	4	6	8115		89	3	10	1246
40	6	4	7890		90	5	9	1222
41	6	5	6796		91	0	10	1162
42	1	7	6749		92	10	4	1120
43	2	7	6689		93	9	6	1092
44	6	0	5888		94	10	0	1067
45	7	2	5824		95	4	10	1029
46	3	7	5646		96	8	9	957
47	7	1	5630		97	11	2	921
48	7	3	5379		98	6	9	907
49	6	7	5305		99	1	11	886
50	0	7	5187		100	2	11	876

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/11

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Score 9/10

Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurences
1	2	3	4350
2	3	4	3684
3	1	2	3581
4	4	5	2765
5	3	2	2702
6	1	3	2424
7	4	3	2385
8	2	1	2336
9	2	4	2288
10	4	2	2012
11	3	1	1964
12	1	4	1959
13	0	1	1811
14	3	5	1756
15	5	4	1742
16	2	5	1712
17	5	6	1645
18	5	3	1596
19	0	3	1570
20	4	1	1562
21	5	2	1557
22	0	2	1426
23	1	5	1386
24	3	6	1265
25	0	4	1230
26	6	3	1196
27	2	0	1193
28	5	1	1167
29	2	6	1156
30	6	4	1152
31	1	0	1120
32	6	5	1112
33	3	0	1111
34	6	2	1092
35	4	6	1068
36	1	6	991
37	6	7	960
38	6	1	905
39	4	0	896
40	0	5	881
41	7	3	866
42	7	2	825
43	7	4	806
44	2	7	746
45	3	7	743
46	4	7	736
47	1	7	723
48	7	5	720
49	5	0	699
50	7	1	667

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/10

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurences
1	2	3	5084
2	1	2	4358
3	3	4	4154
4	1	3	3058
5	3	2	2987
6	2	4	2737
7	4	5	2728
8	2	1	2599
9	1	4	2499
10	4	3	2474
11	0	1	2222
12	0	3	2071
13	2	5	2029
14	0	2	2024
15	4	2	2008
16	3	1	1980
17	3	5	1873
18	1	5	1777
19	5	4	1600
20	0	4	1583
21	5	6	1569
22	5	3	1483
23	2	6	1422
24	4	1	1402
25	1	6	1342
26	5	2	1340
27	1	0	1323
28	3	6	1309
29	0	5	1266
30	2	0	1237
31	4	6	1120
32	3	0	1053
33	5	1	1039
34	6	3	968
35	6	4	945
36	0	6	935
37	2	7	924
38	1	7	896
39	6	5	888
40	6	2	859
41	3	7	828
42	4	0	785
43	6	7	738
44	4	7	692
45	6	1	664
46	0	7	644
47	7	3	631
48	7	4	628
49	7	2	596
50	2	8	568

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/9

Dodgers vs Reds - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/8

Rank	Dodgers	Reds	Occurences
1	1	2	50429
2	2	3	45914
3	2	1	42771
4	3	2	37248
5	0	1	34035
6	3	1	31524
7	3	4	31169
8	1	0	30495
9	2	0	28629
10	1	3	24673
11	4	2	24457
12	4	3	24072
13	3	0	23726
14	4	1	22922
15	0	2	22112
16	2	4	19466
17	4	0	18166
18	4	5	18160
19	5	2	16488
20	1	4	16403
21	5	1	16289
22	0	3	15586
23	5	3	15128
24	5	4	13681
25	5	0	13152
26	2	5	12335
27	3	5	12010
28	6	2	11443
29	6	1	11440
30	0	4	10126
31	1	5	10002
32	6	3	9961
33	6	0	9900
34	5	6	9501
35	6	4	8325
36	7	1	8075
37	7	2	7573
38	2	6	7452
39	3	6	7328
40	7	0	7240
41	6	5	7063
42	4	6	6632
43	0	5	6542
44	7	3	6520
45	1	6	6511
46	8	1	5668
47	7	4	5270
48	8	2	5210
49	8	0	5104
50	6	7	4785

Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation Results 9/8

Dodgers vs Reds - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/7

Rank	Dodgers	Reds	Occurrences
1	2	3	43981
2	1	2	43058
3	3	4	33078
4	3	2	32574
5	2	1	32468
6	1	3	27599
7	0	1	25420
8	4	3	24588
9	3	1	23114
10	2	4	22801
11	4	2	21417
12	0	2	20983
13	1	4	20684
14	4	5	20561
15	0	3	18918
16	1	0	18659
17	2	0	17097
18	4	1	16940
19	2	5	16169
20	5	3	15489
21	5	4	15307
22	3	5	14968
23	5	2	14666
24	1	5	14288
25	0	4	14222
26	3	0	13422
27	5	6	12122
28	5	1	11994
29	2	6	10736
30	3	6	10322
31	0	5	10301
32	6	3	10278
33	4	0	10124
34	1	6	9975
35	6	2	9808
36	6	4	9412
37	4	6	8768
38	6	5	8695
39	6	1	8258
40	0	6	7656
41	1	7	7545
42	2	7	7469
43	5	0	7329
44	3	7	6889
45	7	2	6697
46	7	3	6681
47	6	7	6484
48	4	7	6157
49	7	4	5984
50	7	1	5834

Pitching Matchup: Zack Greinke vs Mat Latos

Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation Results 9/7

Dodgers vs Reds - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Reds	Occurences
1	2	3	37165
2	3	4	34584
3	3	2	30131
4	1	2	28824
5	4	3	26731
6	4	5	25742
7	2	1	23818
8	4	2	22326
9	3	1	20921
10	2	4	19729
11	5	4	19273
12	1	3	18956
13	5	3	18399
14	4	1	17044
15	5	2	17042
16	5	6	16586
17	3	5	16029
18	1	4	14546
19	2	5	14403
20	5	1	13296
21	6	3	13278
22	6	4	12698
23	6	2	12485
24	0	1	12433
25	6	5	12072
26	2	0	11849
27	3	0	11607
28	3	6	11255
29	4	6	11135
30	0	2	10731
31	1	0	10478
32	1	5	10213
33	6	1	10072
34	0	3	9949
35	6	7	9793
36	2	6	9745
37	4	0	9645
38	7	3	9154
39	7	2	9093
40	7	4	8752
41	5	0	7842
42	7	5	7767
43	7	1	7641
44	4	7	7623
45	0	4	7384
46	7	6	7357
47	3	7	7335
48	1	6	7325
49	2	7	6870
50	5	7	6768

Note: 1 Million simulations ran.

Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation Results 9/6

How Important Is Playoff Home Field Advantage For The Dodgers

A post from Mike Scoscia's Tragic Illness titled 'Does The Best Record In The League Matter' got me thinking about a good way to measure this using math. Hey, opinions are great but if you know a little bit about me, you would know that I need to know the probabilities.

So what I did was assign a string of probabilities for the Dodgers winning the NLDS, NLCS and World Series. Now, I am going to assume in this exercise that the Dodgers are either the #1 or #2 seed in the National League. It is of course very possible that the Dodgers get the #3 seed, but let's save that scenario for a later date.

I kept the probabilities of the Dodgers winning the NLDS and World Series constant and then set a game by game win probability for each of the seven games the Dodgers and Braves would play each other in the NLCS. One set of probabilities for the Dodgers having HFA and one set for the Braves having HFA. The accuracy of the probabilities that I set aren't all that important. The important part is adjusting the NLCS games by 9% (assuming a HFA of 4.5% in this exercise) on a game by game basis. From these seven NLCS win probabilities I can then run this through a simple Monte Carlo simulation to get a NLCS series win probability.

The table below will show you my findings.

	LAN HFA	ATL HFA
NLDS	0.64	0.64
NLCS G1	0.65	0.56
NLCS G2	0.62	0.53
NLCS G3	0.47	0.56
NLCS G4	0.45	0.54
NLCS G5	0.56	0.65
NLCS G6	0.62	0.53
NLCS G7	0.56	0.47
NLCS Winner	0.635	0.607
W.S.	0.5	0.5
W.S. Champion	20.32%	19.43%

For the data above you can see that given the series and game win probabilities that I used, there is less than a one percent difference in chances of winning the World Series based on having the #1 or #2 seed in the MLB playoffs. I think the numbers I used are pretty accurate though, as Vegas has the Dodgers chances of winning the World Series at between 19-20 percent. Anyways, the final number doesn't really matter. What matters is the difference between the chances of winning the World Series with the #1 or #2 seed. Is a cost of 0.89% to your World Series champion probability a big deal or not? I would say no it isn't when you are balancing that out with properly getting your team ready for the post-season.

Note: NLCS Winner was computed with Monte Carlo simulation (10 Million simulations).

Dodgers vs Rockies - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 9/4

Rank	Dodgers	Rockies	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Rockies	Occurrences
1	3	4	26029		51	8	5	6685
2	4	5	24929		52	1	8	6631
3	2	3	22290		53	0	3	6202
4	5	6	21096		54	5	9	6186
5	6	7	16201		55	0	4	6161
6	4	3	16107		56	8	4	6008
7	5	4	15617		57	3	10	5845
8	3	5	15375		58	2	10	5809
9	2	4	14934		59	1	9	5744
10	3	2	13536		60	6	9	5680
11	2	5	13498		61	7	2	5617
12	6	5	13258		62	5	1	5489
13	4	6	13215		63	4	10	5452
14	1	2	13132		64	0	5	5443
15	3	6	13104		65	8	3	5359
16	5	3	12426		66	0	2	5125
17	6	4	11614		67	0	6	5036
18	1	3	11484		68	7	9	5030
19	2	6	11370		69	5	10	4829
20	7	8	11224		70	9	6	4712
21	4	2	11190		71	3	11	4610
22	1	4	11102		72	9	8	4598
23	3	7	10635		73	1	10	4596
24	4	7	10583		74	9	10	4559
25	5	7	10340		75	9	5	4547
26	7	6	10221		76	9	7	4546
27	1	5	10134		77	2	11	4512
28	6	3	9952		78	8	2	4500
29	2	7	9716		79	0	1	4488
30	7	5	9281		80	0	7	4451
31	5	2	9177		81	6	1	4428
32	7	4	8833		82	9	4	4363
33	1	6	8827		83	4	11	4322
34	3	8	8769		84	6	10	4194
35	4	8	8419		85	9	3	4077
36	2	8	8140		86	0	8	3961
37	2	1	8101		87	7	10	3723
38	5	8	8092		88	5	11	3720
39	1	7	7659		89	7	1	3597
40	3	1	7503		90	1	11	3551
41	6	8	7492		91	3	12	3493
42	8	9	7443		92	9	2	3479
43	8	7	7289		93	2	12	3361
44	7	3	7251		94	4	12	3341
45	6	2	7191		95	10	5	3265
46	3	9	7136		96	0	9	3230
47	2	9	6937		97	10	4	3203
48	8	6	6823		98	8	10	3165
49	4	9	6730		99	10	6	3135
50	4	1	6708		100	10	7	3118

Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation Results 9/4

Dodgers vs Rockies - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/3

Rank	Dodgers	Rockies	Occurrences
1	2	3	36251
2	3	4	33412
3	1	2	28272
4	3	2	26103
5	4	5	25437
6	4	3	24351
7	2	1	20811
8	4	2	19816
9	2	4	19773
10	1	3	19703
11	5	4	18593
12	3	1	17402
13	5	3	17370
14	5	6	16890
15	5	2	15893
16	1	4	15713
17	3	5	15171
18	4	1	14697
19	2	5	14436
20	0	1	13227
21	6	3	13162
22	6	4	12854
23	6	5	12293
24	6	2	12006
25	5	1	11833
26	0	2	11817
27	0	3	11616
28	1	5	11597
29	3	6	10737
30	4	6	10344
31	2	6	10278
32	2	0	9901
33	6	7	9851
34	7	3	9733
35	1	0	9522
36	0	4	9413
37	7	4	9351
38	3	0	9209
39	6	1	9027
40	7	2	9006
41	1	6	8321
42	7	5	8173
43	4	0	8084
44	7	6	7499
45	7	1	7085
46	3	7	7071
47	2	7	7068
48	4	7	6992
49	0	5	6918
50	8	3	6899

Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation Results 9/3

Dodgers vs Rockies - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/2

Rank	Dodgers	Rockies	Occurrences
1	2	3	32066
2	3	4	29458
3	3	2	28434
4	1	2	26169
5	4	3	24367
6	2	1	23642
7	4	2	23432
8	3	1	22532
9	4	5	21721
10	4	1	20776
11	5	2	19516
12	5	3	18610
13	5	1	17805
14	5	4	16949
15	6	2	15791
16	3	0	15773
17	4	0	15138
18	6	3	15005
19	6	1	14836
20	5	6	14340
21	2	0	14244
22	2	4	14197
23	1	3	13170
24	7	2	12918
25	5	0	12831
26	6	4	12816
27	7	1	12579
28	0	1	11753
29	7	3	11529
30	1	0	11487
31	6	0	11462
32	3	5	11180
33	6	5	11070
34	8	1	10146
35	8	2	10046
36	7	4	9791
37	7	0	9657
38	1	4	9322
39	2	5	9211
40	8	3	8768
41	6	7	8658
42	0	2	8379
43	8	0	7869
44	9	2	7774
45	9	1	7693
46	7	5	7624
47	4	6	7511
48	8	4	7105
49	3	6	6839
50	9	3	6586

Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation Results 9/2

Padres vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/1

Rank	Padres	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	70182
2	2	3	60577
3	0	1	48994
4	2	1	40227
5	3	4	38878
6	1	3	36949
7	0	2	34253
8	3	2	33789
9	1	0	28401
10	0	3	27852
11	1	4	26922
12	2	4	26373
13	3	1	25418
14	2	0	22441
15	4	3	21318
16	4	5	20652
17	0	4	20307
18	4	2	18573
19	3	0	17981
20	2	5	17879
21	1	5	17845
22	4	1	16626
23	3	5	14803
24	0	5	14334
25	4	0	11995
26	1	6	11834
27	5	4	11124
28	5	3	10895
29	2	6	10791
30	5	2	10559
31	0	6	10075
32	5	1	9809
33	5	6	9426
34	3	6	9066
35	1	7	7848
36	4	6	7122
37	2	7	6884
38	5	0	6853
39	0	7	6567
40	6	2	6105
41	6	3	5701
42	6	1	5649
43	6	4	5399
44	3	7	5310
45	6	5	5194
46	1	8	4885
47	6	0	4456
48	2	8	4425
49	0	8	4236
50	4	7	4141

Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/1