Best Lineup - Texas Rangers

Next up on my look at most efficient lineups is the Texas Rangers.  I used my baseball simulator to run millions of games through various different possible lineup scenarios to see which lineup it spit out as the most likely to win a game vs a RH and LH pitcher.  Each lineup was simulated in 2.5 million games.

Please keep in mind that 2014 Steamer Projections were used as input, so if you don't like some of the results take it up with them.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels
NL: Mets

See the results after the break.

Rays vs Rangers - AL WildCard Play-In Game Simulation Results

MLB Simulation Results - March 31st

Away	Home	Favorite	Vegas ML	Vegas Win Exp	Vegas Total Runs	Sim Win Exp	Sim Total Runs
Texas	Houston	Texas	-160 / +150	60.78%	8.5 o100, u-120	59.66%	7.75

Most Likely Final Scores

1 HOU 3-2 6:1		51 TEX 7-6 37:1
2 TEX 3-2 7:1		52 TEX 8-4 37:1
3 HOU 2-1 7:1		53 TEX 9-2 40:1
4 HOU 4-3 7:1		54 TEX 9-3 43:1
5 TEX 2-1 8:1		55 HOU 5-0 44:1
6 TEX 4-3 8:1		56 HOU 7-4 44:1
7 TEX 4-2 9:1		57 HOU 7-3 47:1
8 TEX 3-1 9:1		58 TEX 9-1 47:1
9 HOU 5-4 11:1		59 TEX 8-5 47:1
10 TEX 4-1 11:1		60 HOU 7-5 47:1
11 TEX 5-3 12:1		61 HOU 7-2 49:1
12 TEX 5-2 12:1		62 TEX 8-0 50:1
13 TEX 5-4 12:1		63 TEX 9-4 56:1
14 HOU 3-1 12:1		64 TEX 8-6 59:1
15 HOU 4-2 13:1		65 HOU 7-1 59:1
16 TEX 2-0 14:1		66 HOU 6-0 63:1
17 TEX 5-1 14:1		67 TEX 10-2 63:1
18 HOU 1-0 15:1		68 TEX 10-3 66:1
19 TEX 1-0 15:1		69 HOU 8-7 66:1
20 TEX 3-0 16:1		70 TEX 10-1 68:1
21 TEX 6-3 16:1		71 TEX 9-0 68:1
22 TEX 6-2 16:1		72 TEX 9-5 74:1
23 HOU 5-3 16:1		73 HOU 8-2 76:1
24 HOU 4-1 17:1		74 TEX 8-7 76:1
25 TEX 6-4 18:1		75 HOU 8-3 77:1
26 TEX 6-1 18:1		76 HOU 8-4 79:1
27 HOU 6-5 18:1		77 HOU 8-5 82:1
28 TEX 4-0 18:1		78 TEX 10-4 85:1
29 HOU 5-2 19:1		79 TEX 11-2 89:1
30 HOU 2-0 19:1		80 TEX 9-6 94:1
31 TEX 6-5 20:1		81 HOU 8-6 94:1
32 TEX 5-0 22:1		82 HOU 8-1 97:1
33 TEX 7-2 22:1		83 HOU 7-0 98:1
34 HOU 3-0 22:1		84 TEX 10-0 99:1
35 TEX 7-3 23:1		85 TEX 10-5 100:1
36 TEX 7-1 24:1		86 TEX 11-1 104:1
37 TEX 7-4 25:1		87 TEX 11-3 106:1
38 HOU 5-1 26:1		88 TEX 11-4 120:1
39 HOU 6-4 26:1		89 HOU 9-3 120:1
40 TEX 6-0 26:1		90 HOU 9-2 124:1
41 HOU 6-3 27:1		91 TEX 9-7 128:1
42 TEX 8-2 30:1		92 HOU 9-4 132:1
43 HOU 6-2 31:1		93 TEX 11-0 135:1
44 TEX 7-5 31:1		94 TEX 12-2 135:1
45 HOU 4-0 31:1		95 TEX 10-6 144:1
46 TEX 8-3 33:1		96 TEX 12-3 145:1
47 TEX 8-1 33:1		97 HOU 9-8 145:1
48 HOU 7-6 34:1		98 HOU 8-0 152:1
49 TEX 7-0 35:1		99 HOU 9-1 156:1
50 HOU 6-1 37:1		100 TEX 12-1 159:1

World Series Game #6 Simulation

Pushed To The Brink ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Cardinals	C.Lewis vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	53.38%	58.48%	STL 10-9

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World Series Game #5

Winner Take All? ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Rangers	C.Carpenter vs C.Wilson	Rangers	54.02%	56.28%	TEX 4-2

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World Series Game #4 Simulation

Pujols Dominates ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Rangers	E.Jackson vs D.Holland	Rangers	63.57%	56.72%	TEX 4-0

Game Notes: Last nights crazy 16-7 game was the 302nd most likely final score in the simulation. The run total line in Vegas opened at 9.8 runs (9.5 O -120) and overnight jumped to 10.3 runs (10 O -120) which is almost unheard of. Could it be a psychological over-reaction to last nights slugfest? The run total line of 10.3 runs is the tied for 19th highest run total line of any game so far this season. Two Derek Holland pitched games are on the list ahead of this one. They were home games against the Florida Marlins and Houston Astros. The Marlins pitcher was Brad Hand (#2 Rank, Vegas 10.8 runs, Actual runs 14) and the Astros pitcher was J.A. Happ (#14 Rank, Vegas 10.4 runs, Actual runs 11). What does tonight have in store?

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World Series Game #3 Simulation

All Tied Up ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Rangers	K.Lohse vs M.Harrison	Rangers	63.90%	58.73%	STL 16-7

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World Series Game #2 Simulation

Cardinals Look To Go Up Two Nil ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Cardinals	C.Lewis vs J.Garcia	Rangers	51.69%	41.55%	TEX 2-1

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World Series Game #1 Simulation

Ice Breaker ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Cardinals	C.Wilson vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	53.80%	53.61%	STL 3-2

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Tigers vs Rangers ALCS Game #6 Simulated Box Score

Hitting

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Austin Jackson	4.456	1.065	0.73	0.2	0.06	0.075	0.327	0.353	1.662	0.291
Ryan Raburn	4.366	1.114	0.628	0.294	0.015	0.177	0.507	0.304	1.314	0.325
Miguel Cabrera	3.996	1.243	0.697	0.343	0.002	0.201	0.585	0.593	0.814	0.408
Victor Martinez	4.144	1.263	0.847	0.293	0.003	0.121	0.538	0.307	0.562	0.356
Delmon Young	4.178	1.149	0.748	0.254	0.009	0.139	0.538	0.217	0.947	0.325
Jhonny Peralta	3.998	1.047	0.678	0.216	0.015	0.137	0.475	0.283	0.943	0.321
Alex Avila	3.747	0.926	0.582	0.202	0.023	0.119	0.415	0.416	1.189	0.322
Brandon Inge	3.757	0.878	0.511	0.257	0.017	0.093	0.383	0.3	1.019	0.296
Ramon Santiago	3.673	0.977	0.615	0.236	0.04	0.085	0.393	0.242	0.748	0.319
Ian Kinsler	4.168	1.186	0.676	0.249	0.029	0.232	0.574	0.496	0.571	0.38
Elvis Andrus	4.163	1.156	0.895	0.196	0.025	0.04	0.329	0.381	0.642	0.317
Josh Hamilton	4.133	1.306	0.737	0.281	0.066	0.222	0.696	0.394	0.872	0.405
Michael Young	4.079	1.27	0.915	0.238	0.032	0.084	0.519	0.293	0.622	0.353
Adrian Beltre	4.042	1.269	0.685	0.323	0.006	0.255	0.794	0.227	0.611	0.395
Mike Napoli	3.733	1.064	0.599	0.244	0.004	0.216	0.624	0.418	0.937	0.379
Nelson Cruz	3.763	1.04	0.57	0.243	0.011	0.216	0.61	0.276	0.941	0.359
David Murphy	3.589	1.041	0.654	0.209	0.026	0.151	0.5	0.382	0.688	0.367
Endy Chavez	3.568	0.991	0.678	0.174	0.032	0.107	0.427	0.303	0.731	0.336

Pitching

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Max Scherzer	5.447	4.149	1.621	6.752	1.166	88.894	5.352
Jose Valverde	0.392	0.33	0.164	0.411	0.042	6.447	4.165
Joaquin Benoit	0.44	0.399	0.119	0.481	0.061	7.015	4.007
Al Alburquerque	0.722	0.719	0.402	0.707	0.051	12.406	3.807
Phil Coke	0.465	0.282	0.211	0.554	0.044	7.772	4.591
Ryan Perry	0.78	0.456	0.402	0.953	0.087	13.327	5.033
Daniel Schlereth	0.36	0.273	0.243	0.439	0.067	6.549	6.141
Brad Penny	0.02	0.007	0.007	0.027	0.004	0.323	6.232
Derek Holland	5.938	5.666	2.043	6.39	0.757	97.037	3.981
Neftali Feliz	0.425	0.461	0.138	0.391	0.031	6.776	2.948
Mike Adams	0.43	0.466	0.09	0.412	0.035	6.656	2.709
Koji Uehara	0.756	0.99	0.12	0.733	0.134	11.815	3.356
Alexi Ogando	0.429	0.372	0.119	0.478	0.049	6.856	3.787
Mike Gonzalez	0.893	0.922	0.402	0.92	0.113	15.065	4.134
Darren Oliver	0.321	0.314	0.103	0.329	0.026	5.163	3.276
Yoshinori Tateyama	0.007	0.007	0.002	0.008	0.001	0.111	4.893

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 TEX 4-3		51 TEX 8-1		101 TEX 11-5
2 TEX 3-2		52 TEX 6-0		102 TEX 11-1
3 TEX 5-4		53 TEX 8-6		103 TEX 12-2
4 TEX 6-5		54 DET 8-6		104 TEX 10-0
5 DET 4-3		55 TEX 9-3		105 TEX 10-7
6 TEX 2-1		56 DET 8-5		106 DET 10-7
7 TEX 4-2		57 DET 8-4		107 DET 9-1
8 DET 3-2		58 TEX 9-2		108 TEX 12-3
9 DET 5-4		59 DET 8-3		109 DET 10-2
10 TEX 5-3		60 DET 8-7		110 DET 7-0
11 TEX 3-1		61 DET 6-1		111 TEX 12-4
12 TEX 5-2		62 DET 2-0		112 DET 11-4
13 TEX 7-6		63 TEX 9-8		113 DET 10-8
14 TEX 4-1		64 TEX 7-0		114 TEX 12-1
15 DET 4-2		65 TEX 9-4		115 TEX 10-8
16 TEX 6-3		66 DET 1-0		116 DET 11-3
17 DET 5-3		67 TEX 9-1		117 DET 10-1
18 DET 6-5		68 TEX 9-5		118 DET 10-9
19 TEX 6-4		69 DET 8-2		119 DET 11-5
20 TEX 6-2		70 DET 3-0		120 TEX 12-5
21 DET 2-1		71 TEX 10-2		121 TEX 11-6
22 DET 6-4		72 DET 9-4		122 TEX 13-2
23 TEX 5-1		73 TEX 10-3		123 TEX 11-7
24 DET 5-2		74 DET 7-1		124 DET 11-7
25 TEX 7-3		75 TEX 9-6		125 DET 11-6
26 DET 6-3		76 TEX 10-4		126 TEX 11-10
27 TEX 6-1		77 TEX 8-0		127 DET 8-0
28 DET 3-1		78 DET 9-5		128 TEX 13-3
29 TEX 7-4		79 DET 9-3		129 TEX 11-0
30 TEX 7-2		80 TEX 10-1		130 TEX 13-4
31 TEX 7-5		81 DET 4-0		131 DET 12-4
32 TEX 3-0		82 DET 9-6		132 DET 12-5
33 DET 4-1		83 TEX 9-7		133 TEX 11-8
34 DET 7-4		84 TEX 10-5		134 DET 11-2
35 DET 7-6		85 DET 9-7		135 TEX 12-6
36 TEX 8-7		86 DET 5-0		136 DET 11-8
37 TEX 4-0		87 TEX 9-0		137 DET 12-6
38 DET 7-5		88 DET 9-2		138 TEX 13-5
39 DET 6-2		89 DET 9-8		139 DET 9-0
40 TEX 2-0		90 DET 8-1		140 TEX 14-4
41 TEX 7-1		91 TEX 11-3		141 TEX 11-9
42 TEX 8-3		92 DET 10-4		142 TEX 12-0
43 TEX 8-2		93 TEX 11-4		143 TEX 13-1
44 TEX 1-0		94 TEX 11-2		144 DET 12-3
45 DET 7-3		95 DET 10-5		145 TEX 13-6
46 TEX 8-4		96 TEX 10-9		146 TEX 14-2
47 DET 5-1		97 DET 10-3		147 TEX 14-3
48 TEX 5-0		98 DET 6-0		148 DET 11-9
49 TEX 8-5		99 TEX 10-6		149 DET 12-7
50 DET 7-2		100 DET 10-6		150 DET 12-2

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October 15th Simulations

Closing Time For Texas ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Tigers	Rangers	M.Scherzer vs D.Holland	Rangers	58.93%	61.34%	TEX 15-5

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October 13th Simulations

Tigers On The Brink ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Tigers	C.Wilson vs J.Verlander	Tigers	60.24%	49.06%	DET 7-5
Brewers	Cardinals	R.Wolf vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	56.62%	64.06%	MIL 4-2

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October 12th Simulations

Double Your LCS Pleasure! ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Tigers	M.Harrison vs R.Porcello	Rangers	52.38%	54.12%	TEX 7-3
Brewers	Cardinals	Y.Gallardo vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	59.27%	63.67%	STL 4-3

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October 11th Simulations

Fister Of Fury ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Tigers	C.Lewis vs D.Fister	Tigers	56.99%	58.97%	DET 5-2

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Tigers vs Rangers ALCS Game #2 Simulated Box Score

Hitting

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Austin Jackson	4.443	1.053	0.724	0.197	0.058	0.075	0.311	0.353	1.659	0.289
Ramon Santiago	4.33	1.133	0.71	0.273	0.048	0.102	0.413	0.283	0.877	0.315
Delmon Young	4.351	1.183	0.77	0.259	0.009	0.145	0.487	0.229	0.99	0.322
Miguel Cabrera	3.891	1.2	0.671	0.333	0.002	0.195	0.594	0.584	0.792	0.407
Victor Martinez	4.032	1.222	0.818	0.283	0.002	0.119	0.526	0.304	0.549	0.355
Ryan Raburn	3.989	1.014	0.573	0.267	0.013	0.16	0.539	0.278	1.199	0.324
Jhonny Peralta	3.88	1.003	0.65	0.207	0.015	0.132	0.466	0.278	0.914	0.318
Alex Avila	3.633	0.888	0.561	0.191	0.022	0.114	0.405	0.408	1.15	0.32
Brandon Inge	3.66	0.842	0.488	0.248	0.015	0.091	0.366	0.281	0.997	0.292
Rangers
Ian Kinsler	4.17	1.181	0.672	0.249	0.028	0.231	0.576	0.494	0.565	0.378
Elvis Andrus	4.16	1.158	0.893	0.199	0.026	0.04	0.334	0.381	0.64	0.318
Josh Hamilton	4.135	1.302	0.733	0.283	0.066	0.221	0.695	0.389	0.878	0.403
Michael Young	4.078	1.267	0.909	0.24	0.033	0.085	0.521	0.292	0.62	0.353
Adrian Beltre	4.04	1.266	0.678	0.321	0.006	0.26	0.791	0.228	0.608	0.396
Mike Napoli	3.727	1.049	0.591	0.241	0.004	0.212	0.605	0.421	0.937	0.375
Nelson Cruz	3.76	1.032	0.566	0.242	0.011	0.213	0.601	0.277	0.935	0.357
David Murphy	3.584	1.028	0.688	0.178	0.027	0.135	0.463	0.385	0.67	0.358
Mitch Moreland	3.498	0.932	0.604	0.19	0.012	0.126	0.442	0.371	0.775	0.339

Pitching

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Max Scherzer	5.448	4.142	1.653	6.692	1.166	88.857	5.372
Jose Valverde	0.389	0.329	0.167	0.405	0.042	6.416	4.189
Joaquin Benoit	0.444	0.402	0.121	0.477	0.062	7.061	4.011
Al Alburquerque	0.72	0.726	0.416	0.696	0.052	12.441	3.856
Phil Coke	0.465	0.284	0.217	0.543	0.044	7.767	4.602
Ryan Perry	0.783	0.465	0.411	0.949	0.089	13.407	5.059
Daniel Schlereth	0.359	0.272	0.246	0.425	0.066	6.506	6.143
Brad Penny	0.02	0.008	0.007	0.026	0.004	0.321	6.23
Rangers
Derek Holland	5.982	5.643	2.032	6.354	0.752	97.246	3.968
Neftali Feliz	0.426	0.461	0.141	0.388	0.032	6.792	2.989
Mike Adams	0.426	0.464	0.091	0.405	0.034	6.595	2.684
Koji Uehara	0.75	0.974	0.116	0.711	0.129	11.643	3.297
Alexi Ogando	0.425	0.368	0.114	0.461	0.048	6.731	3.758
Mike Gonzalez	0.875	0.905	0.402	0.894	0.111	14.779	4.16
Darren Oliver	0.314	0.304	0.101	0.32	0.027	5.041	3.323
Yoshinori Tateyama	0.006	0.006	0.002	0.007	0.001	0.103	4.364

Starting Pitchers	Away	Home	Favorite	Exp Win%	Away Runs/Game	Home Runs/Game	Total Runs/Game
Max Scherzer vs Derek Holland	Tigers	Rangers	Rangers	61.71%	4.16	5.11	9.27

Top 25 Most Likely Scores

Rank	Tigers	Rangers	Out of 100K
1	3	4	3538
2	2	3	3358
3	4	5	3227
4	5	6	2310
5	1	2	2305
6	4	3	2232
7	2	4	2103
8	3	2	1968
9	3	5	1947
10	5	4	1884
11	1	3	1788
12	2	5	1716
13	1	4	1627
14	5	3	1561
15	6	7	1558
16	3	6	1520
17	4	2	1517
18	4	6	1499
19	6	5	1421
20	2	6	1340
21	2	1	1308
22	1	5	1292
23	6	4	1281
24	5	2	1223
25	4	7	1124

Cardinals vs Brewers Simulation box score.
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October 10th Simulations

Cardinals and Tigers Need A Win ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Tigers	Rangers	M.Scherzer vs D.Holland	Rangers	58.25%	62.30%	TEX 7-3
Cardinals	Brewers	E.Jackson vs S.Marcum	Cardinals	56.99%	49.53%	STL 12-3

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October 9th Simulations

LCS Gets Hot and Heavy ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Brewers	J.Garcia vs Z.Greinke	Brewers	58.07%	53.26%	MIL 9-6
Tigers	Rangers	M.Scherzer vs D.Holland	Rangers	57.08%	60.68%	Ppd.

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October 8th Simulations

ALCS Begins ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Tigers	Rangers	J.Verlander vs C.Wilson	Rangers	50.62%	38.15%	TEX 3-2

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October 4th Simulations

LDS - Yankees and Rays Pushed To The Brink ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Rays	M.Harrison vs J.Hellickson	Rays	52.72%	39.25%	TEX 4-3
Phillies	Cardinals	C.Hamels vs J.Garcia	Phillies	55.85%	40.38%	PHI 3-2
Yankees	Tigers	A.Burnett vs R.Porcello	Tigers	52.83%	52.30%	NYA 10-1
Brewers	DBacks	S.Marcum vs J.Collmenter	Brewers	51.33%	46.21%	ARI 8-1

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October 3rd Simulations

LDS - American League Takes The Spotlight ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Rays	C.Lewis vs D.Price	Rays	56.52%	50.93%	TEX 4-3
Yankees	Tigers	C.Sabathia vs J.Verlander	Tigers	55.56%	49.49%	DET 5-4

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