Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Beat Down In The Bay

July 1st, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Reds Cubs T.Wood vs C.Silva Cubs 58.33% 62.79% CIN 3-2
Skinny: Reds starter Tim Wood makes his first major league start and second start of any kind since 2006, look for him to get lit up. Silva has been solid over an 87 inning sample size. Take the Cubs.
Phillies Pirates C.Hamels vs D.McCutchen Phillies 65.64% 62.92% PIT 3-2
Skinny: D.McCutchen has been terrible at the major league level. Hamels has been lucky with the high LOB% and is prone to the long ball at home. Not much value here, maybe a small play on the Pirates.
Mets Nationals J.Santana vs L.Hernandez Mets 56.52% 47.91% WAS 2-1
Skinny: Santana is no longer a dominate pitcher and is riding an unsustainable (away from home) xFIP. Hernandez has also been lucky this year. Mets are way over priced in this game, take the Nationals at home.
Brewers Cardinals R.Wolf vs B.Hawksworth Cardinals 55.56% 59.25% MIL 4-1
Skinny: Randy Wolf has been terrible this year and the Cardinals and their two RH sluggers (Pujols, Holliday) are likely to pound on him. Hawksworth is not very good either, but the Cardinals should be a more solid favorite. Take the Cardinals.
Giants Rockies M.Bumgarner vs A.Cook Rockies 58.16% 56.93% COL 7-3
Skinny: This game is fairly priced.
Astros Padres B.Moehler vs J.Garland Padres 70.15% 61.22% TBD
Skinny: Garland has been moderately lucky this year and Moehler moderately unlucky, making for a rather good opportunity on a heavy underdog. Take the Astros
Blue Jays Indians S.Marcum vs J.Masterson Blue Jays 59.02% 52.12% CLE 6-1
Skinny: Marcum has been a little lucky with the BABIP and xFIP, meanwhile Masterson has been one of the most unlucky pitchers in all of baseball. There is some good value in this game. Take the Indians at home.
Mariners Yankees R.Rowland vs C.Sabathia Yankees 76.74% 75.29% NYA 4-2
Skinny: It's not often you see a game with a favorite of this magnitude and in this case it is a fair price. Nothing here worthwhile.
A's Orioles T.Cahill vs J.Arrieta A's 57.81% 56.47% OAK 8-1
Skinny: Once again another fairly priced game. A's are a solid road favorite with Cahill facing the rookie. Cahill has been quite lucky with the BABIP though.
Rays Twins J.Niemann vs C.Pavano Twins 53.49% 55.30% TB 5-4
Skinny: Not much here. Should be a good game.
Rangers Angels C.Wilson vs J.Weaver Angels 54.75% 51.68% TBD
Skinny: Last game of an important four game series. Wilson has been moderately lucky with the BABIP and xFIP, but there still appears to be a little bit of value on the Rangers. Take the Rangers

Current ROI: 2.47%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Goodbye to June

June 30th, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Giants V.Padilla vs J.Sanchez Giants 53.27% 57.70% LAN 8-2

Current ROI: 2.89%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Monday, June 28, 2010

Gaining Ground

June 29th, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Giants J.Ely vs M.Cain Giants 56.71% 53.59% LAN 4-2
Mets Marlins H.Takahashi vs N.Robertson Mets 53.92% 42.71% FLA 7-6
Nationals Braves C.Stammen vs D.Lowe Braves 65.87% 60.43% WAS 7-2
Phillies Reds J.Blanton vs M.Leake Reds 53.92% 58.56% PHI 9-6
Pirates Cubs J.Karstens vs T.Lilly Cubs 68.35% 68.19% CHN 3-1
Astros Brewers B.Myers vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 68.75% 72.58% MIL 7-5
DBacks Cardinals D.Willis vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 74.09% 71.96% STL 8-0
Rockies Padres J.Hammel vs W.LeBlanc Padres 54.34% 52.71% COL 6-3
A's Orioles D.Braden vs B.Matusz A's 51.92% 53.75% OAK 4-2
Mariners Yankees C.Lee vs P.Hughes Yankees 59.35% 56.06% SEA 7-4
Blue Jays Indians B.Morrow vs F.Carmona Blue Jays 52.61% 53.34% CLE 5-4
Rays Red Sox J.Shields vs J.Lackey Red Sox 51.22% 52.36% BOS 8-5
Tigers Twins A.Galarraga vs N.Blackburn Twins 57.81% 52.34% MIN 11-4
White Sox Royals G.Floyd vs B.Bannister White Sox 56.14% 57.33% CHA 4-3
Rangers Angels S.Feldman vs J.Pineiro Angels 54.34% 51.84% LAA 6-5

Current ROI: 2.16%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports


June 28th, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Giants C.Billingsley vs B.Zito Giants 53.92% 52.29% LAN 4-2
Mets Marlins R.Dickey vs R.Nolasco Marlins 51.22% 52.06% FLA 10-3
Nationals Braves S.Strasburg vs T.Hudson Braves 51.92% 51.92% ATL 5-0
Phillies Reds K.Kendrick vs J.Cueto Reds 56.52% 52.41% CIN 7-3
Pirates Cubs P.Maholm vs R.Wells Cubs 64.41% 64.96% PIT 2-1
Astros Brewers B.Norris vs M.Parra Brewers 63.64% 63.55% HOU 9-5
DBacks Cardinals D.Haren vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 62.41% 64.22% STL 6-5
Rockies Padres U.Jimenez vs K.Correia Rockies 58.68% 51.83% COL 10-6
Blue Jays Indians R.Romero vs J.Westbrook Blue Jays 60.00% 58.56% CLE 2-1
Tigers Twins J.Bonderman vs F.Liriano Twins 61.09% 63.39% DET 7-5
White Sox Royals M.Buehrle vs A.Larew White Sox 54.55% 57.62% KC 3-1

Current ROI: 2.55%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Back In The Saddle

June 27th, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Yankees Dodgers A.Pettitte vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 50.74% 58.18% NYA 8-6

Current ROI: 2.55%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Trip To China. Arrival In Beijing

My family (wife, daughter and self) just returned from our 4th family trip in the last five years to China. Each trip involves a combination of sightseeing, shopping, eating, family visits and soaking in the culture, history and local lifestyles of the Middle Kingdom.

Our visit this year was a mid June visit, due to my daughter now starting school. Our previous three trips to China were made in either the early spring or early autumn time due to the very hot and humid summers and the extremely cold winters in the part of China we were visiting. My wife's hometown of Handan in the province of Hebei, is in a medium sized city by Chinese standards, with a population of around 2 million people. Each visit is usually split between sightseeing in one of the many splendid regions of China along with a visit to her hometown to see family and friends.

Each time we have been to China, we have flown in to the capitol city of Beijing, spent some time there and travelled by train (350 miles SSW) to Handan. This year was no different. The flight time to Beijing from LAX was around 12-1/2 hours. We had a 2-1/2 hour flight to Vancouver, switched planes and had a 10 hour flight to Beijing. Interestingly enough, these were the last two cities to host the Olympic games, with Beijing hosting the 2008 summer games and Vacouver hosting the 2010 winter games.

The plan was to mess around in Beijing, see a few of the places we hadn't seen before, hit a few of the spots we really liked, visit with some family friends in the city, as well as enjoy the local cuisine. The weather in Beijing in mid June was pretty hot and very humid. The temperature was right around 90F every day, with the humidity likely in the 80+ percent area. We had two nights of sprinkles along with one night of a huge electrical storm with a big downpour. The downpour cut short a relaxing evening at the "Old Beijing" hutongs. A 50 minute tax ride back to our hotel saved us from getting soaked, trying to walk to the bus station or subway.

To my delight our hotel or "service apartment" room was in a 14 story tall building right across the street from the Bird's Nest (Olympic Stadium). The site of the Bird's Nest and the Water Cube (swimming facility) lit up at night time was an eye pleasing site. We walked through and did a self tour of the Olympic Stadium grounds two times. Tours inside the stadium weren't given very often, and I was told that there is nothing to see inside besides chairs and grass anyways. As a huge sports fan, most of the fun for me of visiting a stadium is to go inside and see the "chairs" and "grass" and to feel the history of the stadium by being inside of it. Luckily, the outside grounds were very interesting and there was a lot to do and see on the surrounding grounds of the Bird's Nest. Inside the grounds was the Bird's Nest, Water Cube, a large "Olympic" tower, a grassy play area where a giant World Cup watching beer drinking party was going on with live music on stage, a huge square or gathering area whose expansiveness reminded me of Tiananmen Square, along with a moat that encircled the Bird's Nest and a few other large structures that I didn't have the time to figure out what they were. On the grounds there was tens of thousands of people mingling between the different sites, with many posing to take pictures alongside the venue attractions. We paid 120 RMB ($20) for the three of us to be taken around the grounds for a good look at the Bird's Nest and Water Cube from every angle. My wife was able to haggle down the price quite a bit. The general rule of thumb is to haggle down the price atleast 50% on most touristy things, otherwise you are getting completely ripped off. My wife is usually able to get around a 70% discount via haggling. It depends on what type of thing you are haggling over. Some things are more difficult than others to haggle over. The tram tour was great and we got some wonderful daytime pictures of the Bird's Nest. Like most of the other people visiting, we waited around for the sun to set and the lights to come on. In the meantime, we bought a kite (actually this kite had 10 mini kites on one string) from one of the local vendors. It seemed like everyone was flying these kites, and we figured it was a great way to entertain our five year old daughter while we waited for the lights to come on the Bird's Nest and Water Cube. What we didn't know, is that the police/security guards had nothing better to do than harass people who were flying these kites. They drove around in vans yelling at people to take down their kites, that flying them was against the rules/law. My wife got into it a little bit with the group that was yelling at us, and she asked the first group of police officers "... don't you have anything more important to do!?". This registered an embarrassing laugh from them and they left us alone. Later a more obnoxious and forceful group of officers came through with blaring loudspeakers and we had to take our kite down. It was nothing more than a game of cat and mouse though. The police would leave and the vendors and kites would be up all over the place. Then the police would come through with their blaring loudspeakers and the cycle started all over again. By then the sun had set and the red illuminating lights on the Bird's Nest came on. It was a beautiful site to see the lights shining on the unique mangling of concrete that was the Bird's Nest. The Water Cube, which is powered and lighted up with the use of solar power began to slowly light up in a shimmering blue as the sun went down. It was as if you were watching a blue sunrise. More wonderful pictures were taken.

The other main sightseeing places we visited in Beijing in these four days (really only three when you consider travel time in and out of the city) were visiting the newly built Olympic Forest Park. Once again we took a tram ride around the park as this day was probably the hottest day in Beijing. We were not overly impressed with the park. It looked as if it was thrown together kind of haphazzardly, not the usual standard for a Chinese park. There were loudspeakers interrupting the sounds of nature, playing classical music rather loudly in a forced and failed attempt at serenity. If you like trees a lot, then you might enjoy this park, but I don't recommend visiting it.

The next park we visited was much more interesting and beautiful and full of ancient Chinese history and archeticture, Beihai Gongyuan (or Beihai Park). The park was the former imperial garden and part of the Forbidden City and open to the public for the last 85 years. The highlights of the park is the beautiful lake surrounded by a concourse lined with beautiful weeping trees, with Qionghua Island in its middle, with a large pagoda/temple on the top of its hill. We rented a paddle boat and made our way out to the island. The other highlight of the park was the Five Dragon Pavillion, which housed the famous Nine Dragon Wall. The wall was built 250 years ago and is one of three walls of its kind in China.

Across the street from Beihai Park was the Hutong or Old Beijing (Lao Beijing) area. The hutongs are the very old housing areas that are hundreds of years old and still standing today. Many of the hutongs have been unfortunately torn down and replaced with more modern structures in the name of so-called progress. The hutongs are basically narrow alley ways that can barely fit a car in, many of the alley ways are too narrow for cars and can only be traversed on foot or bicycle. We rented a bicycle rickshaw for a relaxing tour. It was interesting to see all the old alley ways and amazing to see how people live a modern day life within the hutongs of Beijing. On the outskirts of the hutongs is another beautiful lake rimmed with bars and restaraunts. Needless to say, this was where many of the foriegners gathered for a mid day stroll or meal and a nighttime visit to a bar or two. We had a wonderful lakeside lunch at one of the restaraunts and did some shopping along a few of the touristy streets. One of the interesting items that many vendors had for sale, was a t-shirt with Obama's picture on it wearing a Mao suit and a red star cap.

There is one restaraunt that I must mention that we dined at in these first four days in Beijing. The restaraunt trip was a surprise, shrouded in secrecy as something that I'd really like and I was not disappointed. It was a unique Mongolian restaraunt with an outdoor setting. Each dining party had their own Mongolian canvas hut to eat in. The hut was built to look like the typical house of a Mongolian nomad. The inside had a table large enough to seat about a dozen people and the inside was ringed with beautiful and ornate Mongolian artifacts. I was awed at this dining experience. It didn't matter how good or bad the food was, I was very impressed. The food (lamb) was prepared in a large kitchen house which you could walk to and watch them prepare all the food. At some point during the meal, a group of a half dozen Mongolian people in full Mongolian formal dress came into our hut and played/sang three beautiful Mongolian songs. It was a life time dining experience. My daughter and I were very happy when they sang this song as their finale, as it is the only Mongolian song we know and it is a great kids song. They did a great cover of the song too! I love listening to Chinese and Mongolian ethnic music.

Mixed in with all these park visits and wonderful meals was a visit to a family friend (seems like there are an unlimited number of family friends, I think that is a good thing though) on the southern outskirts of Beijing. The area was very trashy and we had to go over a few dirt roads to get there. Needless to say, I was expecting this to be a rather uncomfortable visit. Upon arrival at the friend's apartment (everyone lives in apartments or flats), things all of a sudden looked much nicer and the interior of the apartment was quite nice and the family friend very kind and generous. This is a theme that you will see all over China. A place (restaraunt, house, park etc...) will look like crap on the outside, whether it is a pile of rubble, garbage or a sewage smell, 9 out of 10 times the inside will be grandiose. The Chinese do a great job of decorating their interiors, it is almost as if you are in a palace (ok, maybe 8 out of 10). Restaraunt interiors will have the look and feel of a five star hotel, with the hostess often taking you on a labyrinth up stairs and down hallways to your own private group dining room. The most beautifully decorated restaraunts I have ever been to have been in China with out a doubt. Back to the visit to the family friend... it turns out this family friend is a doctor who specializes in AIDS. According to him, he has developed/discovered a cure to the AIDS virus. Feeling that I was bored out of my mind on this visit, the doctor kindly showed me a 45 minute DVD video (in quasi English) about the development, testing and actual usage of his discovery. The cure uses Chinese medicine and I have no idea how the medicine is made. My bull-shit meter was on high the whole time, but I left with atleast an open mind. Supposedly, he will be travelling to the US in the near future to pitch his cure at a United Nations AIDS meeting in New York. He asked my wife to be his translator while he is here... we'll see how that goes.

Note: More trip details will be intermingled with simulations for the next week.

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Dodger Sims Is On Vacation

Will Return on June 26th

Thanks for visiting Dodger Sims, the author of this site is currently on a two week vacation to China. In 2008, I visited these wonderful places in China with my family. The highlight of the trip will be visiting wonderful sites such as The Summer Palace, Beihai Park and the quaint and narrow Hutongs (ancient alleys) of Beijing. In Beijing, our hotel will be right next to the Bird's Nest (Olympic Stadium), so a tour will likely be in the works. The last time we visited, it was three weeks after the Olympics were over and they were charging US$100 per person to tour the stadium. My guess is that the entrance fee is more like US$10 nowadays. They are actually having trouble finding a use for the stadium and a plan is in the works to turn it into a shopping and entertainment center.

In the neighboring Hebei Province, I will be visiting the beautiful Baiyangdian Lake, which is filled with blooming lotus flowers. A stopover in Handan to visit family and friends and to of course devour some Hot Pot, Dan Dan Mian (Spicy Noodles) and jiaozi (dumplings), while making a trip or two to the many beautiful parks the city has to offer. The parks in the US just cannot compare to the parks in China. Many of the parks, like Congtai Park in Handan are built from ancient fortresses, with many small picturesque lakes, rock and flower gardens and magificently crafted stone bridges built in the surrounding area. Many of the parks with man made lakes have huge water shows, similar to what one would see in Las Vegas. Congtai Park also houses a large amusement area for children, paddle boats, and a small zoo where you can hand feed monkeys and a large flock of pigeons. One thing you don't see in parks in China are basketball and tennis courts. Every now and then I spot an outdoor basketball court or soccer field, though they are pretty rare. They are usually packed, as both basketball and soccer are very popular in China. I've only seen one tennis court that was in decent shape in China, and that was at a five star hotel we were staying at in Beijing three years ago.

The following baseball links should help you out for following baseball, be it checking out scores, odds or Dodgers game chats.

Tuesday, June 08, 2010

One Spot Earns Top Spot In NL West

June 9th, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Cardinals Dodgers A.Wainwright vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 52.61% 52.41% LAN 4-3
Marlins Phillies J.Johnson vs R.Halladay Phillies 61.24% 60.08% Ppd.
Pirates Nationals B.Lincoln vs J.Lannan Nationals 58.16% 63.10% WAS 7-5
Padres Mets M.Latos vs J.Santana Mets 59.02% 56.24% Ppd.
Giants Reds J.Sanchez vs A.Harang Reds 53.05% 49.82% CIN 6-3
Cubs Brewers C.Zambrano vs R.Wolf Brewers 50.98% 50.95% CHN 9-4
Astros Rockies F.Paulino vs A.Cook Rockies 63.50% 58.64% HOU 6-2
Braves DBacks K.Kawakami vs I.Kennedy DBacks 53.49% 50.91% ARI 2-1
Yankees Orioles C.Sabathia vs C.Tillman Yankees 70.24% 65.45% NYA 4-2
Red Sox Indians C.Buchholz vs J.Masterson Red Sox 61.39% 54.32% CLE 11-0
Blue Jays Rays S.Marcum vs D.Price Rays 58.51% 47.63% TB 10-1
Mariners Rangers I.Snell vs C.Wilson Rangers 65.28% 69.08% TEX 12-2
Royals Twins K.Davies vs C.Pavano Twins 62.83% 60.68% MIN 6-2
Tigers White Sox R.Porcello vs F.Garcia White Sox 53.05% 49.91% CHA 15-3
Angels A's J.Saunders vs D.Braden A's 55.36% 55.14% LAA 7-1

Current ROI: 2.55%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Monday, June 07, 2010

DeWitt Destroys Cardinals

June 8th, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Cardinals Dodgers C.Carpenter vs H.Kuroda Cardinals 54.13% 49.28% LAN 1-0
Marlins Phillies C.Volstad vs K.Kendrick Phillies 57.63% 60.84% PHI 10-8
Pirates Nationals J.Karstens vs S.Strasburg Nationals 66.67% 67.84% WAS 5-2
Padres Mets C.Richard vs M.Pelfrey Mets 58.33% 52.80% NYN 2-1
Giants Reds M.Cain vs S.LeCure Giants 56.71% 55.11% SF 3-0
Cubs Brewers T.Lilly vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 58.16% 62.00% MIL 3-2
Astros Rockies B.Moehler vs J.Francis Rockies 66.67% 65.81% HOU 4-3
Braves DBacks K.Medlen vs E.Jackson Braves 50.98% 52.98% ATL 7-5
Yankees Orioles P.Hughes vs K.Millwood Yankees 68.75% 66.53% NYA 12-7
Red Sox Indians T.Wakefield vs D.Huff Red Sox 60.47% 54.76% BOS 3-2
Blue Jays Rays B.Tallet vs J.Niemann Rays 66.10% 59.74% TB 9-0
Mariners Rangers F.Hernandez vs C.Lewis Rangers 53.05% 53.07% TEX 7-1
Royals Twins Z.Greinke vs K.Slowey Twins 56.52% 52.40% MIN 7-3
Tigers White Sox A.Galarraga vs G.Floyd White Sox 53.49% 59.13% DET 7-2
Angels A's J.Weaver vs V.Mazzaro Angels 60.00% 60.87% OAK 10-1

Current ROI: 2.94%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports
MLB Draft Results

Sunday, June 06, 2010

Pujols Ready To Feast On Dodgers Pitching

June 7th, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Cardinals Dodgers B.Hawksworth vs C.Monasterios Dodgers 59.68% 56.73% LAN 12-4
Cubs Pirates C.Silva vs D.Eveland Cubs 58.85% 56.02% CHN 6-1
Padres Phillies W.LeBlanc vs C.Hamels Phillies 64.16% 62.30% SD 3-1
Giants Reds B.Zito vs J.Cueto Reds 55.95% 52.06% SF 6-5
Astros Rockies W.Rodriguez vs J.Hammel Rockies 61.98% 60.78% COL 5-1
Braves DBacks D.Lowe vs D.Haren DBacks 54.13% 53.40% ARI 7-4
Red Sox Indians D.Matsuzaka vs F.Carmona Red Sox 59.68% 54.32% BOS 4-1
Mariners Rangers C.Lee vs S.Feldman Mariners 52.38% 57.64% SEA 4-2
Angels A's S.Kazmir vs B.Sheets A's 55.56% 49.47% LAA 4-2

Current ROI: 2.69%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports
MLB Draft Results

Dodgers Rely On Ely

June 6th, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Braves Dodgers T.Hudson vs J.Ely Dodgers 52.38% 64.42% ATL 5-4
Marlins Mets R.Nolasco vs H.Takahashi Mets 51.46% 45.33% NYN 7-6
Giants Pirates T.Lincecum vs R.Ohlendorf Giants 62.12% 60.34% SF 6-5
Padres Phillies K.Correia vs J.Blanton Phillies 59.18% 52.69% SD 6-5
Reds Nationals B.Arroyo vs C.Stammen Reds 51.92% 47.37% CIN 5-4
Cubs Astros R.Wells vs B.Myers Cubs 52.61% 57.21% HOU 6-3
Rockies DBacks U.Jimenez vs R.Lopez Rockies 66.56% 65.39% COL 3-2
Brewers Cardinals M.Parra vs J.Garcia Cardinals 65.99% 65.56% MIL 4-3
Yankees Blue Jays J.Vazquez vs B.Morrow Yankees 56.33% 46.92% NYA 4-3
Red Sox Orioles J.Lackey vs B.Matsuz Red So 60.63% 46.74% BAL 4-3
Indians White Sox J.Westbrook vs M.Buehrle White Sox 60.63% 64.20% CHA 8-7
Tigers Royals J.Bonderman vs B.Bannister Tigers 53.70% 54.37% KC 7-2
Rays Rangers M.Garza vs R.Harden Rays 56.90% 49.82% TB 9-5
Twins A's N.Blackburn vs G.Gonzalez A's 58.33% 55.12% OAK 5-4
Angels Mariners J.Pineiro vs J.Vargas Mariners 53.49% 46.18% LAA 9-4

Current ROI: 2.36%

MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Saturday, June 05, 2010

MMMBop The Braves

June 5th, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Braves Dodgers T.Hanson vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 53.05% 56.40% ATL 9-3
Brewers Cardinals C.Narveson vs A.Ottavino Cardinals 59.51% 47.82% STL 5-4
Marlins Mets N.Robertson vs J.Niese Mets 53.92% 50.54% NYN 6-1
Giants Pirates T.Wellemeyer vs P.Maholm Pirates 51.92% 58.48% PIT 6-3
Padres Phillies J.Garland vs J.Moyer Phillies 57.63% 57.41% PHI 6-2
Reds Nationals M.Leake vs L.Atilano Reds 54.95% 55.29% CIN 5-1
Cubs Astros R.Dempster vs R.Oswalt Astros 51.92% 55.63% CHN 8-5
Rockies DBacks J.Chacin vs D.Willis Rockies 53.49% 55.80% ARI 4-3
Yankees Blue Jays A.Pettitte vs R.Romero Yankees 53.92% 40.53% TOR 3-2
Angels Mariners E.Santana vs R.Rowland Angels 54.55% 57.47% LAA 11-2
Rays Rangers J.Shields vs T.Hunter Rays 55.16% 54.58% TEX 6-1
Red Sox Orioles J.Lester vs J.Guthrie Red Sox 64.79% 62.25% BOS 8-2
Indians White SOx M.Talbot vs J.Peavy White Sox 60.94% 65.92% CLE 3-1
Tigers Royals J.Verlander vs L.Hochevar Tigers 59.84% 54.34% DET 4-2
Twins A's F.Liriano vs T.Cahill Twins 55.56% 63.35% MIN 4-3

Current ROI: 2.50%

MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Thursday, June 03, 2010

Scoring Drought Rather Offensive

June 4th, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Braves Dodgers K.Kawakami vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 58.68% 69.66% LAN 5-4
Giants Pirates J.Sanchez vs Z.Duke Giants 55.75% 54.98% SF 6-4
Padres Phillies M.Latos vs R.Halladay Phillies 68.05% 67.49% PHI 3-2
Reds Nationals A.Harang vs L.Hernandez Nationals 51.92% 52.95% WAS 4-2
Marlins Mets A.Sanchez vs R.Dickey Mets 50.98% 43.73% NYN 4-3
Cubs Astros C.Zambrano vs F.Paulino Dubs 55.36% 47.09% HOU 3-1
Brewers Cardinals R.Wolf vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 68.75% 65.94% STL 8-0
Rockies DBacks A.Cook vs I.Kennedy DBacks 53.05% 46.61% ARI 7-6
Red Sox Orioles C.Buchholz vs C.Tillman Red Sox 63.64% 64.02% BOS 11-0
Yankees Blue Jays A.Burnett vs B.Cecil Yankees 55.56% 45.86% TOR 6-1
Rays Rangers W.Davis vs C.Wilson Rangers 53.05% 65.56% TEX 9-6
Tigers Royals M.Scherzer vs B.Chen Tigers 57.45% 49.28% KC 7-3
Indians White Sox J.Masterson vs J.Danks White Sox 67.32% 60.90% CLE 10-1
Twins A's S.Baker vs D.Braden Twins 50.74% 51.37% MIN 5-4
Angels Mariners J.Saunders vs I.Snell Angels 52.61% 50.71% LAA 7-1

Current ROI: 0.87%

World Cup Odds
World Cup Schedule
World Cup picks

Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Fight Like A Brave

June 3rd, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Braves Dodgers K.Medlen vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 56.14% 58.01% ATL 4-3
Nationals Astros J.Martin vs B.Moehler Nationals 52.61% 50.61% HOU 6-4
Brewers Marlins C.Capuano vs J.Johnson Marlins 69.70% 68.01% FLA 3-2
Indians Tigers D.Huff vs R.Porcello Tigers 66.10% 64.87% DET 12-6
Orioles Yankees K.Millwood vs C.Sabathia Red Sox 74.09% 63.95% NYA 6-3
A's Red Sox B.Anderson vs T.Wakefield Red Sox 55.56% 48.74% OAK 9-8
Angels Royals J.Weaver vs Z.Greinke Royals 53.49% 52.62% LAA 5-4
Rangers White Sox C.Lewis vs F.Garcia Rangers 53.05% 47.25% CHA 4-3
Twins Mariners C.Pavano vs F.Hernandez Mariners 56.33% 48.64% SEA 4-1

Current ROI: 1.01%

MLB Scoreboard

Dodgers Pitchers Shine

June 2nd, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
DBacks Dodgers E.Jackson vs C.Monasterios Dodgers 58.68% 55.22% LAN 1-0
Cubs Pirates C.Zambrano vs Z.Duke Cubs 56.33% 51.77% Ppd
Phillies Braves K.Kendrick vs D.Lowe Braves 57.08% 54.55% ATL 2-1
Brewers Marlins Y.Gallardo vs C.Volstad Brewers 51.69% 53.66% MIL 7-4
Nationals Astros J.Lannan vs W.Rodriguez Astros 51.92% 56.33% HOU 5-1
Reds Cardinals S.LeCure vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 69.51% 65.46% STL 4-1
Mets Padres J.Santana vs C.Richard Mets 53.92% 46.00% SD 5-1
Rockies Giants J.Francis vs M.Cain Giants 55.16% 60.29% TBD
Indians Tigers F.Carmona vs A.Galarraga Tigers 57.26% 54.34% DET 3-0
Orioles Yankees B.Bergesen vs P.Hughes Yankees 75.61% 71.15% NYA 9-1
Rays Blue Jays D.Price vs S.Marcum Blue Jays 51.46% 63.63% TB 7-3
A's Red Sox B.Sheets vs D.Matsuzaka Red Sox 59.51% 63.39% BOS 6-4
Angels Royals S.Kazmir vs K.Davies Royals 50.50% 53.70% LAA 7-2
Rangers White Sox S.Feldman vs G.Floyd White Sox 54.13% 58.71% TEX 9-5
Twins Mariners K.Slowey vs C.Lee Mariners 58.51% 63.72% SEA 2-1

Current ROI: 1.24%

MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Second Place In June

June 1st, Simulations...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
DBacks Dodgers D.Haren vs J.Ely Dodgers 55.16% 66.16% LAN 1-0
Cubs Pirates T.Lilly vs J.Karstens Cubs 58.16% 56.07% PIT 3-2
Phillies Braves C.Hamels vs T.Hudson Braves 56.33% 49.47% ATL 7-3
Brewers Marlins D.Bush vs R.Nolasco Marlins 61.98% 61.77% FLA 6-4
Nationals Astros C.Stammen vs B.Myers Astros 54.34% 45.87% HOU 8-7
Reds Cardinals J.Cueto vs P.Walters Cardinals 53.27% 50.83% CIN 9-8
Mets Padres M.Pelfrey vs W.LeBlanc Padres 50.74% 52.74% NYN 4-2
Rockies Giants J.Hammel vs B.Zito Giants 56.33% 50.79% COL 2-1
Indians Tigers J.Westbrook vs J.Bonderman Tigers 62.96% 67.70% CLE 3-2
Orioles Yankees B.Matusz vs J.Vazquez Yankees 68.94% 54.16% NYA 3-1
Rays Blue Jays J.Nieman vs B.Tallet Rays 58.33% 51.38% TB 7-6
A's Red Sox G.Gonzalez vs J.Lackey Red Sox 59.51% 54.58% BOS 9-4
Angels Royals J.Pineiro vs B.Bannister Angels 51.22% 54.34% KC 6-3
Rangers White Sox R.Harden vs M.Buehrle White Sox 53.49% 60.71% TEX 9-6
Twins Mariners N.Blackburn vs J.Vargas Mariners 51.22% 52.56% SEA 7-1

Current ROI: 2.78%

MLB Scoreboard