July 1st, Simulations...
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | Actual |
| Reds | Cubs | T.Wood vs C.Silva | Cubs | 58.33% | 62.79% | CIN 3-2 |
| Skinny: Reds starter Tim Wood makes his first major league start and second start of any kind since 2006, look for him to get lit up. Silva has been solid over an 87 inning sample size. Take the Cubs. | ||||||
| Phillies | Pirates | C.Hamels vs D.McCutchen | Phillies | 65.64% | 62.92% | PIT 3-2 |
| Skinny: D.McCutchen has been terrible at the major league level. Hamels has been lucky with the high LOB% and is prone to the long ball at home. Not much value here, maybe a small play on the Pirates. | ||||||
| Mets | Nationals | J.Santana vs L.Hernandez | Mets | 56.52% | 47.91% | WAS 2-1 |
| Skinny: Santana is no longer a dominate pitcher and is riding an unsustainable (away from home) xFIP. Hernandez has also been lucky this year. Mets are way over priced in this game, take the Nationals at home. | ||||||
| Brewers | Cardinals | R.Wolf vs B.Hawksworth | Cardinals | 55.56% | 59.25% | MIL 4-1 |
| Skinny: Randy Wolf has been terrible this year and the Cardinals and their two RH sluggers (Pujols, Holliday) are likely to pound on him. Hawksworth is not very good either, but the Cardinals should be a more solid favorite. Take the Cardinals. | ||||||
| Giants | Rockies | M.Bumgarner vs A.Cook | Rockies | 58.16% | 56.93% | COL 7-3 |
| Skinny: This game is fairly priced. | ||||||
| Astros | Padres | B.Moehler vs J.Garland | Padres | 70.15% | 61.22% | TBD |
| Skinny: Garland has been moderately lucky this year and Moehler moderately unlucky, making for a rather good opportunity on a heavy underdog. Take the Astros | ||||||
| Blue Jays | Indians | S.Marcum vs J.Masterson | Blue Jays | 59.02% | 52.12% | CLE 6-1 |
| Skinny: Marcum has been a little lucky with the BABIP and xFIP, meanwhile Masterson has been one of the most unlucky pitchers in all of baseball. There is some good value in this game. Take the Indians at home. | ||||||
| Mariners | Yankees | R.Rowland vs C.Sabathia | Yankees | 76.74% | 75.29% | NYA 4-2 |
| Skinny: It's not often you see a game with a favorite of this magnitude and in this case it is a fair price. Nothing here worthwhile. | ||||||
| A's | Orioles | T.Cahill vs J.Arrieta | A's | 57.81% | 56.47% | OAK 8-1 |
| Skinny: Once again another fairly priced game. A's are a solid road favorite with Cahill facing the rookie. Cahill has been quite lucky with the BABIP though. | ||||||
| Rays | Twins | J.Niemann vs C.Pavano | Twins | 53.49% | 55.30% | TB 5-4 |
| Skinny: Not much here. Should be a good game. | ||||||
| Rangers | Angels | C.Wilson vs J.Weaver | Angels | 54.75% | 51.68% | TBD |
| Skinny: Last game of an important four game series. Wilson has been moderately lucky with the BABIP and xFIP, but there still appears to be a little bit of value on the Rangers. Take the Rangers | ||||||
Current ROI: 2.47%
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