Beat Down In The Bay

July 1st, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Reds	Cubs	T.Wood vs C.Silva	Cubs	58.33%	62.79%	CIN 3-2
Skinny: Reds starter Tim Wood makes his first major league start and second start of any kind since 2006, look for him to get lit up. Silva has been solid over an 87 inning sample size. Take the Cubs.
Phillies	Pirates	C.Hamels vs D.McCutchen	Phillies	65.64%	62.92%	PIT 3-2
Skinny: D.McCutchen has been terrible at the major league level. Hamels has been lucky with the high LOB% and is prone to the long ball at home. Not much value here, maybe a small play on the Pirates.
Mets	Nationals	J.Santana vs L.Hernandez	Mets	56.52%	47.91%	WAS 2-1
Skinny: Santana is no longer a dominate pitcher and is riding an unsustainable (away from home) xFIP. Hernandez has also been lucky this year. Mets are way over priced in this game, take the Nationals at home.
Brewers	Cardinals	R.Wolf vs B.Hawksworth	Cardinals	55.56%	59.25%	MIL 4-1
Skinny: Randy Wolf has been terrible this year and the Cardinals and their two RH sluggers (Pujols, Holliday) are likely to pound on him. Hawksworth is not very good either, but the Cardinals should be a more solid favorite. Take the Cardinals.
Giants	Rockies	M.Bumgarner vs A.Cook	Rockies	58.16%	56.93%	COL 7-3
Skinny: This game is fairly priced.
Astros	Padres	B.Moehler vs J.Garland	Padres	70.15%	61.22%	TBD
Skinny: Garland has been moderately lucky this year and Moehler moderately unlucky, making for a rather good opportunity on a heavy underdog. Take the Astros
Blue Jays	Indians	S.Marcum vs J.Masterson	Blue Jays	59.02%	52.12%	CLE 6-1
Skinny: Marcum has been a little lucky with the BABIP and xFIP, meanwhile Masterson has been one of the most unlucky pitchers in all of baseball. There is some good value in this game. Take the Indians at home.
Mariners	Yankees	R.Rowland vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	76.74%	75.29%	NYA 4-2
Skinny: It's not often you see a game with a favorite of this magnitude and in this case it is a fair price. Nothing here worthwhile.
A's	Orioles	T.Cahill vs J.Arrieta	A's	57.81%	56.47%	OAK 8-1
Skinny: Once again another fairly priced game. A's are a solid road favorite with Cahill facing the rookie. Cahill has been quite lucky with the BABIP though.
Rays	Twins	J.Niemann vs C.Pavano	Twins	53.49%	55.30%	TB 5-4
Skinny: Not much here. Should be a good game.
Rangers	Angels	C.Wilson vs J.Weaver	Angels	54.75%	51.68%	TBD
Skinny: Last game of an important four game series. Wilson has been moderately lucky with the BABIP and xFIP, but there still appears to be a little bit of value on the Rangers. Take the Rangers

Current ROI: 2.47%

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