## Friday, November 30, 2007

### Dodger Pitching Comparables

Depth at starting pitching is a strength of the Dodgers team. There is alot of question as to who the Dodgers should use as a 5th starter, or even a 4th starter if Jason Schmidt is not healthy to start the season. I have put together a matrix listing the most similar Dodger starting pitchers. Keep in mind that I am no Bill James, and this may or may not be of any importance. The three variables I am using to find similarities between starting pitchers are K/9, HR/9 and (K-BB)/IP. I am not taking age or health into consideration, this is a pure statistical analysis, which uses 2008 ZIPS projections as it's input data. I have a utility that calculates the similarity scores for me and I choose these three categories based on what I felt was most important. I could have easily choosen different categories. I am throwing in NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy just to get a fill as to which Dodger pitcher has the closest similarity score as the best National League pitcher. The formula used to compute the similarity scores was the square root of the deltas squared of the three categories summed together. Deltas are measured by the percent difference in each category.
Sqrt((xp1-xp2)^2 + (yp1-yp2)^2 + (zp1-zp2)^2)
Where x=K/9, y=HR/9, z=K-BB/IP, p1=Player1, p2=Player2, p3=Player3
 Dodger Starting Pitcher Similarity Score Matrix Penny Lowe Billingsley Schmidt Loaiza Guo Houlton Stults Kuroda Peavy Penny NA .3403 .3804 .5192 .7853 .7809 1.1192 .8550 .4605 .9946 Lowe .3403 NA .3567 .6444 .3758 .8664 .6239 .4291 .2165 1.2509 Billingsley .3804 .3567 NA .2876 .4263 .4818 .6902 .5500 .2408 .8788 Schmidt .5192 .6444 .2876 NA .6841 .2102 .9839 .8967 .4509 .4811 Loaiza .7853 .3758 .4263 .6841 NA .7995 .2323 .1940 .2691 1.3179 Guo .7809 .8664 .4818 .2102 .7995 NA 1.0784 1.0710 .6094 .4127 Houlton 1.1193 .6239 .6902 .9839 .2323 1.0784 NA .1662 .5451 1.7185 Stults .8550 .4291 .5500 .8967 .1940 1.0710 .1662 NA .4434 1.6733 Kuroda .4605 .2165 .2408 .4509 .2691 .6094 .5451 .4434 NA .9795 Peavy .9946 1.2509 .8788 .4811 1.3179 .4127 1.7185 1.6733 .9795 NA

You will notice that HongZhi Guo and Jason Schmidt have the closest similarity scores to 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and of the most likely top 5 starters, Esteban Loaiza and Derek Lowe are the least similar to Jake Peavy. While Loaiza has a very close similarity score to Houlton and Stults, Loaiza is much more similar than Houlton and Stults to the stronger Dodger pitchers. I may add more NL West starting pitchers at a later date and a possible rundown of Dodger hitter similarity scores. Below is a list of the top 10 similarity scores of Dodger starting pitchers.

 Rank Pitchers Similarity Score 1 Houlton/Stults .1662 2 Loaiza/Stults .1940 3 Schmidt/Guo .2102 4 Lowe/Kuroda .2165 5 Loaiza/Houlton .2323 6 Billingsley/Kuroda .2408 7 Loaiza/Kuroda .2691 8 Billingsley/Schmidt .2876 9 Penny/Lowe .3403 10 Lowe/Billingsley .3567

## Tuesday, November 13, 2007

### 2008 Player Projections

 Matt Kemp System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James M.Kemp .322 .365 .508 .873 CHONE M.Kemp .289 .337 .467 .804 ZIPS M.Kemp .303 .348 .483 .831 Marcel M.Kemp .311 .356 .490 .846 PECOTA M.Kemp TBD TBD TBD TBD Jeff Kent System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James J.Kent .290 .368 .486 .854 CHONE J.Kent .273 .356 .452 .808 ZIPS J.Kent .268 .352 .444 .796 Marcel J.Kent .281 .362 .464 .826 PECOTA J.Kent TBD TBD TBD TBD Andre Ethier System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James A.Ethier .304 .371 .477 .847 CHONE A.Ethier .279 .348 .436 .784 ZIPS A.Ethier .288 .357 .459 .816 Marcel A.Ethier .295 .361 .466 .827 PECOTA A.Ethier TBD TBD TBD TBD Russell Martin System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James R.Martin .292 .379 .456 .835 CHONE R.Martin .282 .376 .438 .814 ZIPS R.Martin .280 .365 .432 .797 Marcel R.Martin .293 .371 .459 .830 PECOTA R.Martin TBD TBD TBD TBD Andy LaRoche System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James A.LaRoche .275 .367 .458 .825 CHONE A.LaRoche .268 .356 .455 .811 ZIPS A.LaRoche .256 .343 .431 .774 Marcel A.LaRoche .265 .354 .413 .767 PECOTA A.LaRoche TBD TBD TBD TBD James Loney System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James J.Loney .302 .359 .465 .823 CHONE J.Loney .284 .347 .431 .778 ZIPS J.Loney .296 .350 .470 .820 Marcel J.Loney .315 .372 .514 .886 PECOTA J.Loney TBD TBD TBD TBD Andruw Jones System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James A.Jones .253 .343 .491 .834 CHONE A.Jones .249 .345 .491 .836 ZIPS A.Jones .249 .344 .503 .847 Marcel A.Jones .248 .337 .479 .816 PECOTA A.Jones TBD TBD TBD TBD Nomar Garciappara System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James N.Garciappara .292 .347 .451 .798 CHONE N.Garciappara .282 .340 .423 .763 ZIPS N.Garciappara .268 .329 .384 .713 Marcel N.Garciappara .281 .336 .425 .761 PECOTA N.Garciappara TBD TBD TBD TBD Rafael Furcal System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James R.Furcal .286 .352 .403 .755 CHONE R.Furcal .277 .348 .394 .742 ZIPS R.Furcal .276 .346 .387 .733 Marcel R.Furcal .281 .348 .407 .755 PECOTA R.Furcal TBD TBD TBD TBD Delwyn Young System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James D.Young .258 .307 .429 .736 CHONE D.Young .258 .307 .429 .736 ZIPS D.Young .255 .295 .408 .703 Marcel D.Young .286 .350 .464 .815 PECOTA D.Young TBD TBD TBD TBD Tony Abreu System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James T.Abreu .288 .332 .399 .731 CHONE T.Abreu .275 .321 .394 .715 ZIPS T.Abreu .267 .313 .362 .675 Marcel T.Abreu .280 .337 .433 .770 PECOTA T.Abreu TBD TBD TBD TBD Juan Pierre System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James J.Pierre .298 .343 .361 .703 CHONE J.Pierre .288 .333 .363 .696 ZIPS J.Pierre .277 .318 .347 .665 Marcel J.Pierre .284 .329 .370 .699 PECOTA J.Pierre TBD TBD TBD TBD

# Pitchers

 Brad Penny System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 195 6.42 2.24 0.39 0.74 3.83 1.33 CHONE 195 6.18 1.97 0.34 0.83 4.11 1.38 ZIPS 200 6.39 2.33 0.41 0.72 3.82 1.33 Baseball HQ 203 6.10 1.96 0.33 0.9 3.90 1.36 Derek Lowe System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 212 5.69 1.96 0.34 0.81 3.78 1.31 CHONE 207 5.96 2.21 0.36 0.78 3.70 1.30 ZIPS 210 5.79 2.33 0.37 0.94 3.99 1.30 Baseball HQ 218 5.90 2.31 0.37 0.7 3.84 1.31 Chad Billingsley System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 185 8.66 2.09 0.50 0.88 3.79 1.35 CHONE 147 8.51 2.11 0.50 1.04 3.98 1.37 ZIPS 180 7.70 1.97 0.42 0.95 4.00 1.40 Baseball HQ 189 8.30 2.05 0.47 0.8 3.52 1.32 Jason Schmidt System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 145 8.63 2.48 0.57 0.81 3.41 1.25 CHONE 117 7.54 1.92 0.40 1.08 4.15 1.38 ZIPS 119 8.55 2.26 0.53 0.91 4.08 1.36 Baseball HQ 145 7.8 1.92 0.41 1.20 4.41 1.41 Esteban Loaiza System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 120 6.15 2.41 0.40 1.05 4.35 1.39 CHONE 126 5.93 1.93 0.32 1.14 4.57 1.40 ZIPS 127 6.38 1.48 0.37 1.28 4.89 1.43 Baseball HQ 174 4.80 1.48 0.17 1.20 4.91 1.51 Hiroki Kuroda System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD CHONE 181 6.81 2.80 0.49 1.04 3.78 1.23 ZIPS 180 5.70 3.08 0.43 1.05 3.92 1.24 Baseball HQ TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD HongZhi Guo System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD CHONE 66 9.00 2.28 0.56 0.95 4.09 1.38 ZIPS 78 9.23 2.42 0.60 1.04 4.38 1.37 Baseball HQ 73 10.90 2.51 0.73 0.60 4.32 1.35 D.J. Houlton System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 34 6.88 2.00 0.38 1.32 4.76 1.44 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 138 6.37 1.83 0.32 1.50 5.15 1.46 Baseball HQ 44 5.50 1.35 0.16 1.40 5.32 1.84 Eric Stults System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 53 7.30 2.05 0.42 1.02 5.26 1.57 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 147 6.31 1.81 0.31 1.29 5.14 1.50 Baseball HQ 29 6.20 1.54 0.24 0.60 4.34 1.52 Takashi Saito System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 68 9.00 3.78 0.74 0.93 3.31 1.13 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 66 10.91 4.44 0.94 0.68 2.05 1.00 Baseball HQ 58 10.4 4.19 0.88 0.90 2.79 1.03 Jonathon Broxton System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 83 11.17 3.32 0.87 0.54 3.04 1.19 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 96 10.7 3.97 0.90 0.75 2.91 1.14 Baseball HQ 58 10.9 3.89 0.90 0.60 2.64 1.12 Joe Beimel System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 66 5.05 1.37 0.15 0.68 4.09 1.45 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 73 5.18 1.68 0.23 0.62 3.95 1.37 Baseball HQ 44 4.90 1.50 0.18 0.80 4.30 1.36 Eric Hull System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 72 8.25 2.06 0.47 0.88 4.00 1.39 Baseball HQ 29 8.10 1.86 0.41 0.60 3.72 1.72 Rudy Seanez System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 78 9.69 2.33 0.62 1.04 4.15 1.41 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 65 9.28 2.39 0.60 1.11 4.15 1.40 Baseball HQ 44 8.20 2.00 0.45 1.00 3.90 1.36 Scott Proctor System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 80 7.65 2.06 0.44 1.46 4.50 1.38 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 93 8.13 2.15 0.48 1.55 4.65 1.40 Baseball HQ 58 6.80 1.69 0.31 1.40 4.34 1.48 Jonathon Meloan System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 72 9.50 2.38 0.61 1.75 5.00 1.40 Baseball HQ 44 9.80 2.09 0.57 1.00 3.89 1.32

2007 Projection Accuracy Study

## Sunday, October 28, 2007

### Simulation picks World Series Champion

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox on winning the 2007 World Series, and congratulations to my simulator for correctly picking (on February 13th) the Red Sox to be the champions.

What's next for the simulator? There will be some improvements made to the simulator and some study done on what statistics to use as input into the simulator as to best compete with the Las Vegas sports books. Las Vegas outperformed the simulator by 1.12% during the regular season. This is a very slim margin, but I hope to narrow that number to as close as zero as I can using sound methodology.

I will be making less frequent posts during the offseason, but will still be running some studies and posting them here when available.

And don't forget to pickup one of the professionally designed Dodger Sims T-Shirts available online.

## Saturday, October 27, 2007

### Simulations for Sunday, October 28th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Log5 Winner Red Sox vs Rockies J.Lester vs A.Cook Rockies 56.81 42.55 56.82 Red Sox Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download

## Thursday, October 25, 2007

### Simulations for Saturday, October 27th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Log5 Winner Red Sox vs Rockies D.Matsuzaka vs J.Fogg Rockies 51.85 43.29 56.82 Red Sox Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Current Odds To Win W.S. Xeifrank's Simulator 48.15 80.43% LV Hilton Odds 56.71 89.23 Log5 Method 43.18 84.11 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

## Wednesday, October 24, 2007

### Simulations for Thursday, October 25th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Log5 Winner Rockies vs Red Sox U.Jimenez vs C.Schilling Rockies 51.85 34.84% 35.33 Red Sox Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Current Odds To Win W.S. Xeifrank's Simulator 48.15 Red Sox 64.20% LV Hilton Odds 65.16 Red Sox 78.45% Log5 Method 64.67 Red Sox 73.24% LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

## Sunday, October 21, 2007

### Simulations for Wednesday, October 24th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Log5 Winner Rockies vs Red Sox J.Francis vs J.Beckett Red Sox 52.10 67.21 64.67 Red Sox Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Current Odds To Win W.S. Xeifrank's Simulator 52.10 Rockies 51.00% LV Hilton Odds 67.21 Red Sox 66.00% Log5 Method 64.67 Red Sox 62.10% LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

## Saturday, October 20, 2007

### Simulations for Sunday, October 21st

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Log5 Winner Indians vs Red Sox J.Westbrook vs D.Matsuzaka Red Sox 51.00 60.78 58.29 Red Sox Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Xeifrank's Simulator 51.00 LV Hilton Odds 60.78 Log5 Method 58.29 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

## Thursday, October 18, 2007

### Simulations for Saturday, October 20th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Log5 Winner Indians vs Red Sox F.Carmona vs C.Schilling Indians 50.77 44.44 41.71 Red Sox Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Xeifrank's Simulator 49.23 LV Hilton Odds 55.56 Log5 Method 58.29 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

## Tuesday, October 16, 2007

### Simulations for Thursday, October 18th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Log5 Winner Red Sox vs Indians J.Beckett vs C.Sabathia Indians 51.48 46.51 58.46 Red Sox Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Xeifrank's Simulator 48.52 LV Hilton Odds 53.49 Log5 Method 41.54 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

## Monday, October 15, 2007

### Simulations for Tuesday, October 16th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Log5 Winner Red Sox vs Indians T.Wakefield vs P.Byrd Red Sox 52.60 50.00 41.54 Indians Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Xeifrank's Simulator 47.40 LV Hilton Odds 50.00 Log5 Method 58.46 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

## Sunday, October 14, 2007

### Simulations for Monday, October 15th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner DBacks vs Rockies M.Owings vs F.Morales Rockies 52.60 62.69 Rockies Red Sox vs Indians D.Matsuzaka vs J.Westbrook Red Sox 50.76 53.49 Indians Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Xeifrank's Simulator 101.84 LV Hilton Odds 109.20 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

## Saturday, October 13, 2007

### Simulations for Sunday, October 14th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner DBacks vs Rockies L.Hernandez vs J.Fogg Rockies 58.40 59.18 TBD Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Xeifrank's Simulator 58.40 LV Hilton Odds 59.18 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

### Simulations for Saturday, October 13th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Indians vs Red Sox F.Carmona vs C.Schilling Indians 51.16 43.48 Indians Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Xeifrank's Simulator 51.16 LV Hilton Odds 43.48 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

## Wednesday, October 10, 2007

### Simulations for Friday, October 12th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Rockies vs DBacks U.Jimenez vs D.Davis Rockies 57.50 48.78 Rockies Indians vs Red Sox C.Sabathia vs J.Beckett Red Sox 52.45 59.51 Red Sox Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Xeifrank's Simulator 109.95 LV Hilton Odds 108.29 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

## Monday, October 08, 2007

### Simulations for Thursday, October 11th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Rockies vs DBacks J.Francis vs B.Webb DBacks 52.08 55.56 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Xeifrank's Simulator 47.92 LV Hilton Odds 44.44 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

### Simulations for Monday, October 8th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Indians vs Yankees P.Byrd vs C.Wang Yankees 61.35 TBD Indians Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 0.00 9052.34 LV Hilton Odds 0.00 9157.33 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

## Thursday, October 04, 2007

### Simulations for Sunday, October 7th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Red Sox vs Angels C.Schilling vs J.Weaver Angels 51.00 TBD Red Sox Indians vs Yankees J.Westbrook vs R.Clemens Yankees 57.70 TBD Yankees Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 0.00 9052.34 LV Hilton Odds 0.00 9157.33 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

### Simulations for Saturday, October 6th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner DBacks vs Cubs L.Hernandez vs R.Hill Cubs 61.20 TBD DBacks Phillies vs Rockies J.Moyer vs U.Jimenez Rockies 61.35 60.00 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 0.00 9052.34 LV Hilton Odds 0.00 9157.33 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

### Simulations for Friday, October 5th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Yankees vs Indians A.Pettitte vs F.Carmona Yankees 53.45 TBD Indians Angels vs Red Sox K.Escobar vs D.Matsuzaka Angels 52.30 40.82 Red Sox Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 0.00 9189.54 LV Hilton Odds 0.00 9292.59 LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

## Wednesday, October 03, 2007

### Simulations for Thursday, October 4th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Rockies vs Phillies F.Morales vs K.Kendrick Phillies 54.90 59.18 Rockies Yankees vs Indians C.Wang vs C.Sabathia Yankees 53.50 50.00 Indians Cubs vs DBacks T.Lilly vs D.Davis Cubs 54.40 55.56 DBacks Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 137.20 9052.34 LV Hilton Odds 135.26 9157.33 LV Hilton leads by 1.16%

## Tuesday, October 02, 2007

### Simulations for Wednesday, October 3rd

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Rockies vs Phillies J.Francis vs C.Hamels Phillies 50.45 58.33 Rockies Angels vs Red Sox J.Lackey vs J.Beckett Red Sox 52.40 60.00 Red Sox Cubs vs DBacks C.Zambrano vs B.Webb DBacks 52.80 56.33 DBacks Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 154.75 8897.59 LV Hilton Odds 158.00 8999.33 LV Hilton leads by 1.14%

## Sunday, September 30, 2007

### Simulations for Monday, October 1st

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Padres vs Rockies J.Peavy vs J.Fogg Rockies 50.65 42.55 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 50.65 8846.94 LV Hilton Odds 42.55 8956.78 LV Hilton leads by 1.24%

### 2007 DodgerSims Awards

Award winners will be announced September 30th, following the last regular season game.
 Award Nominees MVP J.Loney Cy Young T.Saito Best Fielder J.Loney Best Rookie J.Loney Most Improved R.Martin Team Leader R.Martin Biggest Surprise M.Kemp Biggest Disappointment N.Garciappara Biggest Jerk J.Kent Top Hitting Prospect A.LaRoche Top Pitching Prospect C.Kershaw Biggest Money Suck J.Pierre Worst In-Season Move W.Betemit trade Notes: All awards are based on subjectivity on my part.

## Saturday, September 29, 2007

### Simulations for Sunday, September 30th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Giants vs Dodgers B.Zito vs E.Stults Dodgers 61.00 48.78 Giants Padres vs Brewers B.Tomko vs J.Suppan Brewers 60.80 50.00 Brewers DBacks vs Rockies D.Davis vs U.Jimenez Rockies 57.85 68.25 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 157.65 8689.29 LV Hilton Odds 169.47 8787.31 LV Hilton leads by 1.13%

## Friday, September 28, 2007

### Simulations for Saturday, September 29th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Giants vs Dodgers T.Blackley vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 68.70 63.64 Dodgers Padres vs Brewers C.Young vs D.Bush Padres 50.50 59.18 Brewers DBacks vs Rockies E.Gonzalez vs M.Redman DBacks 50.30 40.82 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 167.90 8521.39 LV Hilton Odds 181.94 8605.37 LV Hilton leads by 0.99%

## Thursday, September 27, 2007

### Simulations for Friday, September 28th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Giants vs Dodgers K.Correia vs D.Wells Dodgers 59.85 52.38 TBD Padres vs Brewers G.Maddux vs C.Capuano Brewers 53.30 54.55 Padres DBacks vs Rockies B.Webb vs J.Francis Rockies 51.40 53.49 DBacks Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 0.00 8521.39 LV Hilton Odds 0.00 8605.37 LV Hilton leads by 0.99%

## Wednesday, September 26, 2007

### Simulations for Thursday, September 27th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Rockies vs Dodgers F.Morales vs E.Loaiza Dodgers 55.15 47.62 Rockies Padres vs Brewers J.Cassel vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 64.70 62.26 Padres Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 80.15 8441.24 LV Hilton Odds 90.12 8515.25 LV Hilton leads by 0.84%

## Tuesday, September 25, 2007

### Simulations for Wednesday, September 26th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Rockies vs Dodgers J.Fogg vs D.Lowe Dodgers 58.25 56.71 Rockies Padres vs Giants J.Peavy vs P.Misch Padres 58.80 66.10 Padres DBacks vs Pirates L.Hernandez vs M.Morris Pirates 50.55 46.08 Pirates Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 151.10 8290.14 LV Hilton Odds 155.47 8359.78 LV Hilton leads by 0.84%

## Monday, September 24, 2007

### Simulations for Tuesday, September 25th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Rockies vs Dodgers U.Jimenez vs B.Penny Dodgers 60.40 59.18 Rockies Padres vs Giants B.Tomko vs M.Cain Giants 53.05 42.55 Padres DBacks vs Pirates D.Davis vs I.Snell Pirates 52.60 50.00 Pirates Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 139.15 8150.99 LV Hilton Odds 148.27 8211.51 LV Hilton leads by 0.74%

## Sunday, September 23, 2007

### Simulations for Monday, September 24th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Padres vs Giants C.Young vs B.Zito Padres 57.80 55.95 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 42.20 8108.79 LV Hilton Odds 44.05 8167.46 LV Hilton leads by 0.72%

### Simulations for Sunday, September 23rd

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs DBacks C.Billingsley vs E.Gonzalez Dodgers 53.15 52.38 Dodgers Rockies vs Padres J.Francis vs G.Maddux Padres 52.85 55.56 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 100.30 8008.49 LV Hilton Odds 96.82 8070.64 LV Hilton leads by 0.73%

## Friday, September 21, 2007

### Simulations for Saturday, September 22nd

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs DBacks D.Wells vs B.Webb DBacks 58.80 66.10 DBacks Rockies vs Padres M.Redman vs J.Cassel Padres 59.40 57.45 Rockies Reds vs Giants B.Arroyo vs K.Correia Giants 53.45 48.78 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 152.85 7855.64 LV Hilton Odds 157.43 7913.21 LV Hilton leads by 0.73%

## Thursday, September 20, 2007

### Simulations for Friday, September 21st

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs DBacks E.Loaiza vs L.Hernandez Dodgers 51.60 45.45 DBacks Rockies vs Padres F.Morales vs J.Peavy Padres 62.10 66.67 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 86.30 7769.34 LV Hilton Odds 87.88 7825.33 LV Hilton leads by 0.76%

### Simulations for Thursday, September 20th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Rockies D.Lowe vs U.Jimenez Dodgers 50.07 46.51 Rockies Reds vs Giants H.Bailey vs M.Cain Giants 54.05 60.78 Reds Pirates vs Padres M.Morris vs B.Tomko Padres 56.90 60.78 Padres Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 152.78 7616.56 LV Hilton Odds 153.49 7671.84 LV Hilton leads by 0.90%

## Tuesday, September 18, 2007

### Simulations for Wednesday, September 19th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Rockies B.Penny vs J.Fogg Dodgers 52.10 55.95 Rockies Giants vs DBacks B.Zito vs D.Davis DBacks 55.00 56.52 DBacks Pirates vs Padres I.Snell vs C.Young Padres 66.55 61.54 Padres Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 169.45 7447.11 LV Hilton Odds 162.11 7509.73 LV Hilton leads by 0.90%

## Monday, September 17, 2007

### Simulations for Tuesday, September 18th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Rockies C.Billingsley vs J.Francis Rockies 50.30 53.70 Rockies Dodgers vs Rockies D.Wells vs M.Redman Dodgers 52.50 52.83 Rockies Giants vs DBacks J.Sanchez vs M.Owings DBacks 61.80 60.32 DBacks Pirates vs Padres T.Gorzelanny vs G.Maddux Padres 61.25 57.45 Padres Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 220.85 7226.26 LV Hilton Odds 218.64 7291.09 LV Hilton leads by 0.90%

### Simulations for Monday, September 17th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Giants vs DBacks K. Correia vs B.Webb DBacks 63.65 68.25 Giants Pirates vs Padres J. Van Benschoten vs J.Cassel Padres 59.60 60.78 Padres Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 95.95 7226.26 LV Hilton Odds 92.53 7291.09 LV Hilton leads by 0.90%

## Saturday, September 15, 2007

### Simulations for Sunday, September 16th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner DBacks vs Dodgers E.Gonzalez vs E.Loaiza Dodgers 57.05 57.44 Dodgers Giants vs Padres T.Lincecum vs J.Peavy Padres 63.55 62.96 Padres Marlins vs Rockies S.Olsen vs F.Morales Rockies 51.35 58.33 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 171.95 7054.31 LV Hilton Odds 178.73 7112.36 LV Hilton leads by 0.82%

## Friday, September 14, 2007

### Simulations for Saturday, September 15th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner DBacks vs Dodgers L.Hernandez vs D.Lowe Dodgers 63.60 60.00 Dodgers Giants vs Padres M.Cain vs B.Tomko Padres 53.25 50.00 Padres Marlins vs Rockies S.Mitre vs U.Jimenez Rockies 52.50 60.78 Marlins Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 164.35 6889.96 LV Hilton Odds 149.22 6963.14

## Thursday, September 13, 2007

### Simulations for Friday, September 14th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner DBacks vs Dodgers D.Davis vs B.Penny Dodgers 64.95 60.78 TBD Giants vs Padres B.Zito vs C.Young Padres 61.75 60.78 Padres Marlins vs Rockies D.Willis vs J.Fogg Rockies 53.35 56.90 Marlins Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 0.00 6889.96 LV Hilton Odds 0.00 6963.14

## Wednesday, September 12, 2007

### Simulations for Thursday, September 13th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Padres vs Dodgers G.Maddux vs D.Wells Dodgers 55.20 54.55 Dodgers Rockies vs Phillies J.Francis vs J.Durbin Phillies 50.15 47.62 Phillies Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 105.35 6784.61 LV Hilton Odds 102.17 6860.97

## Tuesday, September 11, 2007

### Simulations for Wednesday, September 12th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Padres vs Dodgers J.Germano vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 62.65 57.45 Dodgers DBacks vs Giants B.Webb vs J.Sanchez DBacks 55.90 59.51 DBacks Rockies vs Phillies D.Bautista vs K.Kendrick Phillies 57.65 62.26 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 160.90 6623.71 LV Hilton Odds 154.70 6706.27

## Monday, September 10, 2007

### Simulations for Tuesday, September 11th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Padres vs Dodgers J.Peavy vs E.Loaiza Dodgers 50.75 40.82 Padres DBacks vs Giants E.Gonzalez vs K.Correia Giants 54.40 55.56 Giants Rockies vs Phillies F.Morales vs A.Eaton Phillies 50.65 56.52 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 153.00 6470.71 LV Hilton Odds 158.22 6548.05

## Sunday, September 09, 2007

### Simulations for Monday, September 10th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner DBacks vs Giants L.Hernandez vs T.Lincecum Giants 56.55 56.90 DBacks Rockies vs Phillies U.Jimenez vs K.Lohse Phillies 55.40 55.16 Phillies Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 98.85 6371.86 LV Hilton Odds 98.26 6449.79

## Saturday, September 08, 2007

### Simulations for Sunday, September 9th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Giants B.Penny vs M.Cain Dodgers 53.75 54.55 Giants Padres vs Rockies C.Young vs J.Fogg Padres 55.15 52.83 Rockies Cardinals vs DBacks B.Thompson vs D.Davis DBacks 53.00 56.90 DBacks Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 144.10 6227.76 LV Hilton Odds 149.52 6300.27

## Friday, September 07, 2007

### Simulations for Saturday, September 8th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Giants D.Wells vs B.Zito Giants 52.10 54.55 Dodgers Padres vs Rockies G.Maddux vs J.Francis Padres 50.15 44.44 Padres Cardinals vs DBacks B.Looper vs M.Owings Cardinals 51.90 50.00 DBacks Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 146.15 6081.61 LV Hilton Odds 139.89 6160.38

## Thursday, September 06, 2007

### Simulations for Friday, September 7th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Giants C.Billingsley vs J.Sanchez Dodgers 56.75 57.08 Giants Padres vs Rockies J.Germano vs E.Dessens Rockies 54.45 51.22 Rockies Cardinals vs DBacks A.Wainwright vs B.Webb DBacks 54.90 60.00 DBacks Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 152.60 5929.01 LV Hilton Odds 154.14 6006.24

## Wednesday, September 05, 2007

### Simulations for Thursday, September 6th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Cubs D.Lowe vs J.Marquis Cubs 52.15 52.38 Dodgers Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 47.85 5881.16 LV Hilton Odds 47.62 5958.62

## Tuesday, September 04, 2007

### Simulations for Wednesday, September 5th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Cubs E.Stults vs T.Lilly Cubs 57.95 60.00 Cubs Giants vs Rockies K.Correia vs U.Jimenez Rockies 58.60 60.78 Giants Padres vs DBacks J.Peavy vs L.Hernandez Padres 60.40 60.94 DBacks Vegas Baseball Odds Simulator Setup File Download
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 138.95 5742.21 LV Hilton Odds 138.28 5820.34

## Monday, September 03, 2007

### Simulations for Tuesday, September 4th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Cubs B.Penny vs S.Trachsel Dodgers 53.00 55.56 Dodgers Giants vs Rockies T.Lincecum vs F.Morales Rockies 51.90 48.31 Rockies Padres vs DBacks C.Young vs D.Davis Padres 54.30 55.16 DBacks Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 150.60 5591.61 LV Hilton Odds 148.71 5671.63

## Sunday, September 02, 2007

### Simulations for Monday, September 3rd

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Cubs E.Loaiza vs C.Zambrano Cubs 57.05 62.96 Dodgers Giants vs Rockies M.Cain vs J.Francis Rockies 54.15 58.33 Rockies Padres vs DBacks G.Maddux vs M.Owings DBacks 52.10 48.78 Padres Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 145.00 5446.61 LV Hilton Odds 146.59 5525.04

## Saturday, September 01, 2007

### Simulations for Sunday, September 2nd

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Padres C.Billingsley vs J.Germano Padres 50.65 50.00 Dodgers Giants vs Nationals B.Zito vs M.Chico Nationals 51.70 46.51 Nationals Rockies vs DBacks J.Fogg vs B.Webb DBacks 58.45 68.25 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 142.60 5304.01 LV Hilton Odds 128.26 5396.78

## Friday, August 31, 2007

### Simulations for Saturday, September 1st

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Padres D.Lowe vs J.Peavy Padres 60.00 60.00 Padres Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 60.00 5244.01 LV Hilton Odds 60.00 5336.78

## Thursday, August 30, 2007

### Simulations for Friday, August 31st

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Rockies vs DBacks U.Jimenez vs L.Hernandez Rockies 51.50 47.62 Rockies Giants vs Nationals K.Correia vs T.Redding Nationals 56.80 52.38 Giants The Dodgers vs Padres game is off the books due to the lack of projection information on Padres starting pitcher Jack Cassel. Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 94.70 5338.71 LV Hilton Odds 95.24 5432.02

## Wednesday, August 29, 2007

### Simulations for Thursday, August 30th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner DBacks vs Padres D.Davis vs C.Young Padres 67.60 63.64 DBacks Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 32.40 5211.61 LV Hilton Odds 36.36 5300.42

## Tuesday, August 28, 2007

### Simulations for Wednesday, August 29th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Nationals vs Dodgers S.Hill vs B.Penny Dodgers 57.05 63.64 Dodgers DBacks vs Padres M.Owings vs G.Maddux Padres 59.30 57.45 Padres Rockies vs Giants J.Francis vs N.Lowry Rockies 50.02 50.00 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 166.37 5045.24 LV Hilton Odds 171.09 5129.33

## Monday, August 27, 2007

### Simulations for Tuesday, August 28th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Nationals vs Dodgers J.Bergman vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 58.70 62.26 Dodgers DBacks vs Padres B.Webb vs J.Germano DBacks 51.70 60.00 Padres Rockies vs Giants F.Morales vs M.Cain Giants 54.65 58.85 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 161.65 4883.59 LV Hilton Odds 161.11 4968.22

## Sunday, August 26, 2007

### Simulations for Monday, August 27th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Nationals vs Dodgers M.Bacsik vs D.Lowe Dodgers 64.80 68.25 Dodgers DBacks vs Padres L.Hernandez vs J.Peavy Padres 66.70 69.23 Padres Rockies vs Giants J.Fogg vs B.Zito Giants 51.85 58.85 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 183.35 4700.24 LV Hilton Odds 196.33 4771.89

## Saturday, August 25, 2007

### Simulations for Sunday, August 26th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Mets D.Wells vs J.Maine Mets 63.30 62.96 Dodgers Padres vs Phillies T.Stauffer vs K.Kendrick Phillies 56.45 58.33 Phillies Nationals vs Rockies J.Hanrahan vs E.Dessens Rockies 60.75 56.52 Rockies Cubs vs DBacks J.Marquis vs Y.Petit DBacks 50.95 47.62 DBacks Brewers vs Giants D.Bush vs T.Lincecum Brewers 51.20 41.67 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 253.65 4446.59 LV Hilton Odds 257.84 4514.05

## Friday, August 24, 2007

### Simulations for Saturday, August 25th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Mets E.Stults vs O.Hernandez Mets 62.70 60.00 Mets Padres vs Phillies C.Hensley vs K.Lohse Phillies 61.40 55.56 Padres Nationals vs Rockies T.Redding vs U.Jimenez Rockies 54.05 57.45 Rockies Brewers vs Giants Y.Gallardo vs K.Correia Brewers 55.25 55.56 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 201.10 4245.49 LV Hilton Odds 206.33 4307.72

## Thursday, August 23, 2007

### Simulations for Friday, August 24th

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Mets B.Penny vs O.Perez Mets 53.10 51.22 Mets Padres vs Phillies G.Maddux vs J.Moyer Phillies 55.10 51.22 Padres Nationals vs Rockies S.Hill vs J.Francis Rockies 50.30 59.18 Rockies Cubs vs DBacks S.Marshall vs M.Owings DBacks 54.85 51.22 Cubs Brewers vs Giants C.Vargas vs N.Lowry Giants 53.25 52.38 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 246.70 3998.79 LV Hilton Odds 260.34 4047.38

## Wednesday, August 22, 2007

### Simulations for Thursday, August 23rd

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Phillies C.Billingsley vs F.Castro Phillies 50.70 47.62 Dodgers Padres vs Mets J.Germano T.Glavine Mets 60.55 60.78 Padres Pirates vs Rockies P.Maholm vs F.Morales Rockies 54.15 57.45 Pirates Cubs vs Giants C.Zambrano vs M.Cain Giants 51.75 46.51 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 186.35 3812.44 LV Hilton Odds 180.66 3866.72

## Tuesday, August 21, 2007

### Simulations for Wednesday, August 22nd

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Phillies D.Lowe vs J.Durbin Dodgers 53.70 48.78 Dodgers Padres vs Mets J.Peavy vs B.Lawrence Padres 50.85 58.33 Padres Pirates vs Rockies T.Gorzelanny vs J.Fogg Rockies 54.95 51.69 Pirates Brewers vs DBacks J.Suppan vs B.Webb DBacks 52.85 66.10 DBacks Cubs vs Giants R.Hill vs B.Zito Cubs 51.35 49.02 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 253.80 3558.64 LV Hilton Odds 270.54 3596.18

## Monday, August 20, 2007

### Simulations for Tuesday, August 21st

 Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Phillies B.Tomko vs K.Kendrick Phillies 56.70 58.33 Phillies Padres vs Mets C.Young vs J.Maine Mets 54.20 51.22 Mets Pirates vs Rockies T.Armas vs E.Dessens Rockies 64.50 56.14 Rockies Brewers vs DBacks D.Bush vs L.Hernandez Brewers 56.00 46.51 Brewers Cubs vs Giants J.Marquis vs T.Lincecum Giants 54.40 56.14 Cubs Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 277.00 3281.64 LV Hilton Odds 256.06 3340.12

## Sunday, August 19, 2007

### Simulations for Monday, August 20th

 Simulations for Monday, August 20th. Current prediction record is 218-176. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Pirates vs Rockies M.Morris vs U.Jimenez Rockies 60.10 59.68 Pirates Brewers vs DBacks Y.Gallardo vs D.Davis Brewers 52.85 46.08 Brewers Giants vs Marlins R.Ortiz vs S.Mitre Marlins 62.65 60.00 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 130.10 3151.54 LV Hilton Odds 126.40 3213.72

### Simulations for Sunday, August 19th

 Simulations for Sunday, August 19th. Current prediction record is 216-176. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Rockies vs Dodgers J.Francis vs B.Penny Dodgers 58.40 55.56 Dodgers Astros vs Padres M.Albers vs G.Maddux Padres 62.70 60.78 Padres Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 121.10 3030.44 LV Hilton Odds 116.34 3097.38

## Saturday, August 18, 2007

### Simulations for Saturday, August 18th

 Simulations for Saturday, August 18th. Current prediction record is 216-172. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Rockies vs Dodgers F.Morales vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 57.45 60.78 Rockies Astros vs Padres R.Oswalt vs J.Germano Padres 53.90 45.05 Astros DBacks vs Braves M.Owings vs B.Carlyle Braves 59.75 57.08 DBacks Giants vs Marlins M.Cain vs R.VanderHulk Marlins 52.15 46.51 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 176.75 2853.69 LV Hilton Odds 190.58 2906.80

## Thursday, August 16, 2007

### Simulations for Friday, August 17th

 Simulations for Friday, August 17th. Current prediction record is 215-169. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Rockies vs Dodgers J.Fogg vs E.Stults Dodgers 51.35 52.38 Dodgers Astros vs Padres W.Williams vs J.Peavy Padres 63.50 68.25 Astros DBacks vs Braves B.Webb vs L.Cormier Braves 52.75 40.82 DBacks Giants vs Marlins B.Zito vs S.Olsen Marlins 58.05 55.56 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 177.05 2676.64 LV Hilton Odds 187.75 2719.05

## Wednesday, August 15, 2007

### Simulations for Thursday, August 16th

 Simulations for Thursday, August 16th. Current prediction record is 214-167. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Astros vs Dodgers W.Rodriguez vs D.Lowe Dodgers 59.65 60.78 Dodgers Rockies vs Padres E.Dessens vs C.Hensley Rockies 53.70 42.74 Padres Giants vs Braves T.Lincecum vs C.James Braves 57.65 58.68 Giants Note: The Arizona/Marlins game is not being simulated due to the lack of projection data available on Marlins pitcher Daniel Barone. Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 148.30 2528.34 LV Hilton Odds 159.36 2559.69

## Tuesday, August 14, 2007

### Simulations for Wednesday, August 15th

 Simulations for Wednesday, August 15th. Current prediction record is 212-165. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Astros vs Dodgers J.Jennings vs B.Penny Dodgers 66.20 63.64 Dodgers Rockies vs Padres U.Jimenez vs C.Young Padres 59.00 65.40 Rockies Giants vs Braves R.Ortiz vs T.Hudson Braves 68.80 70.15 Braves DBacks vs Marlins D.Davis vs S.Mitre Marlins 58.40 54.55 DBacks Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 217.16 2311.18 LV Hilton Odds 213.84 2345.85

## Monday, August 13, 2007

### Simulations for Tuesday, August 14th

 Simulations for Tuesday, August 14th. Current prediction record is 210-163. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Astros vs Dodgers M.Albers vs B.Tomko Dodgers 59.60 57.45 Astros Rockies vs Padres J.Francis vs G.Maddux Rockies 52.55 50.00 Padres Giants vs Braves S.Atchison vs J.Smoltz Braves 65.25 70.15 Braves DBacks vs Marlins B.Kim vs D.Willis Marlins 51.00 55.16 Marlins Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 204.10 2107.08 LV Hilton Odds 217.86 2127.99

## Sunday, August 12, 2007

### Simulations for Monday, August 13th

 Simulations for Monday, August 13th. Current prediction record is 209-161. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Astros vs Dodgers R.Oswalt vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 60.40 52.38 Astros Giants vs Pirates, G1 M.Cain vs P.Maholm Pirates 52.50 48.31 Pirates Giants vs Pirates, G2 N.Lowry vs S.Youman Pirates 50.60 49.26 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 141.50 1965.58 LV Hilton Odds 146.67 1981.32

## Saturday, August 11, 2007

### Simulations for Sunday, August 12th

 Simulations for Sunday, August 12th. Current prediction record is 207-159. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Cardinals M.Hendrickson vs A.Reyes Cardinals 58.70 54.55 Cardinals Padres vs Reds J.Peavy vs B.Arroyo Reds 50.02 41.49 Padres Nationals vs DBacks M.Bacsik vs M.Owings DBacks 55.10 59.51 Nationals Pirates vs Giants T.Gorzelanny vs B.Zito Pirates 54.00 47.23 Pirates Notes: Cubs/Rockies game is not being simulated due to the lack of information about Rockies pitcher Tim Harikkala. Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 207.58 1758.00 LV Hilton Odds 200.78 1780.54

## Friday, August 10, 2007

### Simulations for Saturday, August 11th

 Simulations for Saturday, August 11th. Current prediction record is 204-157. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Cardinals D.Lowe vs B.Looper Cardinals 51.25 48.78 Cardinals Padres vs Reds J.Germano vs B.Livingston Padres 50.05 50.50 Reds Nationals vs DBacks J.Lannan vs B.Webb DBacks 60.35 69.23 DBacks Cubs vs Rockies R.Hill vs J.Fogg Rockies 56.25 49.02 Rockies Pirates vs Giants T.Armas vs T.Lincecum Giants 60.70 66.10 Pirates Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 257.10 1500.90 LV Hilton Odds 250.43 1530.11

## Thursday, August 09, 2007

### Simulations for Friday, August 10th

 Simulations for Friday, August 10th. Current prediction record is 201-155. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Cardinals B.Penny vs A.Wainright Dodgers 52.10 53.49 Dodgers Padres vs Reds W.Ledezma vs M.Belisle Reds 48.45 51.46 Padres Nationals vs DBacks M.Chico vs L.Hernandez DBacks 57.20 59.51 DBacks Cubs vs Rockies J.Marquis vs A.Cook Rockies 62.60 57.45 Cubs Pirates vs Giants M.Morris vs R.Ortiz Giants 51.90 51.69 Pirates Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 236.35 1264.55 LV Hilton Odds 252.40 1277.71

## Wednesday, August 08, 2007

### Simulations for Thursday, August 9th

 Simulations for Thursday, August 9th. Current prediction record is 200-152. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Reds B.Tomko vs P.Dumatrait Reds 51.70 47.62 Dodgers Padres vs Cardinals C.Young vs J.Pineiro Padres 59.25 58.68 Cardinals Pirates vs DBacks I.Snell vs D.Davis DBacks 51.85 57.08 DBacks Cubs vs Rockies T.Lilly vs U.Jimenez Rockies 57.95 48.78 Cubs Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 182.95 1081.60 LV Hilton Odds 202.00 1075.71

## Tuesday, August 07, 2007

### Simulations for Wednesday, August 8th

 Simulations for Wednesday, August 8th. Current prediction record is 197-150. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Reds C.Billingsley vs A.Harang Reds 55.45 53.05 Reds Padres vs Cardinals G.Maddux vs K.Wells Padres 51.20 51.22 Cardinals Nationals vs Giants T.Redding vs M.Cain Giants 52.50 60.00 Giants Pirates vs DBacks P.Maholm vs B.Kim DBacks 54.90 57.45 DBacks Brewers vs Rockies Y.Gallardo vs J.Francis Brewers 53.45 46.95 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 258.20 823.40 LV Hilton Odds 272.33 803.38

## Monday, August 06, 2007

### Simulations for Tuesday, August 7th

 Simulations for Tuesday, August 7th. Current prediction record is 194-148. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Dodgers vs Reds M.Hendrickson vs A.Harang Reds 51.35 50.74 Reds Padres vs Cardinals J.Peavy vs A.Reyes Padres 55.30 60.00 Padres Nationals vs Giants M.Bacsik vs B.Zito Giants 51.60 58.33 Nationals Pirates vs DBacks P.Maholm vs M.Owings DBacks 53.75 56.90 Pirates Brewers vs Rockies C.Capuano vs J.Hirsh Rockies 52.45 52.38 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 253.75 569.65 LV Hilton Odds 247.89 555.49

## Sunday, August 05, 2007

### Simulations for Monday, August 6th

 Simulations for Monday, August 6th. Current prediction record is 192-148. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner Padres vs Cardinals D.Wells vs B.Looper Cardinals 55.70 54.55 Cardinals Brewers vs Rockies C.Vargas vs J.Fogg Rockies 53.00 52.38 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 108.70 460.95 LV Hilton Odds 106.93 448.56

## Saturday, August 04, 2007

### Simulations for Sunday, August 5th

 Simulations for Sunday, August 5th. Current prediction record is 190-147. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner DBacks vs Dodgers B.Webb vs B.Penny Dodgers 57.95 53.5 DBacks Giants vs Padres N.Lowry vs J.Germano Padres 62.65 51.20 Padres Rockies vs Braves A.Cook vs C.James Braves 51.40 55.56 Braves Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 156.10 304.85 LV Hilton Odds 153.26 295.30

### Simulations for Saturday, August 4th

 Simulations for Saturday, August 4th. Current prediction record is 189-145. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner DBacks vs Dodgers L.Hernandez vs D.Lowe Dodgers 62.4 60.8 DBacks Giants vs Padres P.Misch vs C.Hensley Padres 56.50 57.10 Padres Rockies vs Braves U.Jimenez vs T.Hudson Braves 62.90 64.30 Braves Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 157.00 147.85 LV Hilton Odds 160.60 134.70

## Friday, August 03, 2007

### Converting Vegas Odds to an Expected Win Percentage

Now that I am comparing my simulation results to the Las Vegas-Hilton oddsmakers. I need to post the conversion algorithm to go from Vegas odds to an expected win percentage. You will often see a Vegas baseball favorite listed as -155. Well does that mean they are saying the team has a 55%, 60%, 65% etc..., chance of winning? The conversion formula is:

WinExp% = [ABS(Favorite + 5) / 100] / ([ABS(Favorite + 5) / 100] + 1)

The -155 we looked at in the example becomes...

WinExp% = [ABS(-155 + 5) / 100] / ([ABS(-155 + 5) / 100] + 1)

Simplified to...

WinExp% = 1.5 / (1.5 + 1)

Which gives us... 1.5 / 2.5 = 0.6 or a 60% chance of winning.

Note: This algorithm had to strip out the house edge that Vegas add to each line.

Feel free to use my handy Money Line to Win Percentage Calculator, via Google docs.

## Thursday, August 02, 2007

### Simulations for Friday, August 3rd

 Simulations for Friday, August 3rd. Current prediction record is 188-143. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner DBacks vs Dodgers D.Davis vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 56.45 58.3 DBacks Giants vs Padres M.Cain vs G.Maddux Padres 58.50 54.5 Padres Rockies vs Braves J.Francis vs J.Smoltz Braves 54.20 61.5 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds
 Method Daily Points Total Points Xeifrank's Simulator 147.85 0 LV Hilton Odds 134.70 0

## Wednesday, August 01, 2007

### Simulations for Thursday, August 2nd

 Simulations for Thursday, August 2nd. Current prediction record is 186-142. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Favored Team Expected Chance of Winning Outcome Giants vs Dodgers B.Zito vs B.Tomko Dodgers 53.40 Giants DBacks vs Padres Y.Petit vs J.Peavy Padres 61.50 Padres Rockies vs Marlins J.Hirsh vs R.VanderHulk Rockies 60.75 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds

## Tuesday, July 31, 2007

### Simulations for Wednesday, August 1st

 Simulations for Wednesday, August 1st. Current prediction record is 185-140. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Favored Team Expected Chance of Winning Outcome Giants vs Dodgers T.Lincecum vs M.Hendrickson Dodgers 55.65 Dodgers DBacks vs Padres M.Owings vs D.Wells Padres 53.35 DBacks Rockies vs Marlins J.Fogg vs B.Kim Rockies 54.40 Marlins Vegas Baseball Odds

## Sunday, July 29, 2007

### Simulations for Tuesday, July 31st

 Simulations for Tuesday, July 31st. Current prediction record is 184-138. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Favored Team Expected Chance of Winning Outcome Giants vs Dodgers N.Lowry vs B.Penny Dodgers 60.35 Giants DBacks vs Padres B.Webb vs J.Germano Padres 55.30 DBacks Rockies vs Marlins A.Cook vs S.Olsen Rockies 59.60 Rockies Vegas Baseball Odds

## Saturday, July 28, 2007

### Simulations for Sunday, July 29th

 Simulations for Sunday, July 29th. Current prediction record is 181-137. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Favored Team Expected Chance of Winning Outcome Dodgers vs Rockies C.Billingsley vs U.Jimenez Dodgers 54.00 Rockies Braves vs DBacks T.Hudson vs L.Hernandez Braves 58.80 Braves Padres vs Astros C.Young vs J.Jennings Padres 60.35 Padres Marlins vs Giants S.Mitre vs M.Morris Marlins 54.75 Marlins Vegas Baseball Odds

## Friday, July 27, 2007

### Simulations for Saturday, July 28th

 Simulations for Saturday, July 28th. Current prediction record is 179-135. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Favored Team Expected Chance of Winning Outcome Dodgers vs Rockies B.Tomko vs J.Francis Rockies 59.20 Rockies Braves vs DBacks J.Smoltz vs D.Davis Braves 56.50 DBacks Padres vs Astros G.Maddux vs R.Oswalt Padres 54.15 Astros Marlins vs Giants D.Willis vs M.Cain Giants 53.05 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds

## Thursday, July 26, 2007

### Simulations for Friday, July 27th

 Simulations for Friday, July 27th. Current prediction record is 176-135. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Favored Team Expected Chance of Winning Outcome Dodgers vs Rockies B.Tomko vs J.Fogg Rockies 56.60 Rained Out Braves vs DBacks J.Reyes vs Y.Petit DBacks 53.25 DBacks Padres vs Astros J.Peavy vs W.Williams Padres 60.40 Padres Marlins vs Giants R.Vanden Hurk vs B.Zito Giants 53.55 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds

## Wednesday, July 25, 2007

### Simulations for Thursday, July 26th

 Simulations for Thursday, July 26th. Current prediction record is 173-134. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Favored Team Expected Chance of Winning Outcome Dodgers vs Rockies B.Penny vs R.Lopez Dodgers 50.35 Dodgers Braves vs Giants B.Carlyle vs T.Lincecum Braves 50.80 Giants Padres vs Astros D.Wells vs W.Rodriguez Astros 53.10 Astros Marlins vs DBacks B.Kim vs M.Owings DBacks 55.65 DBacks Vegas Baseball Odds

## Tuesday, July 24, 2007

### Simulations for Wednesday, July 25th

 Simulations for Wednesday, July 25th. Current prediction record is 170-133. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Favored Team Expected Chance of Winning Outcome Dodgers vs Astros D.Lowe vs M.Albers Dodgers 58.95 Astros Padres vs Rockies J.Germano vs A.Cook Rockies 55.60 Rockies Marlins vs DBacks S.Olsen vs B.Webb DBacks 58.05 DBacks Braves vs Giants C.James vs N.Lowry Giants 50.90 Giants Vegas Baseball Odds

## Monday, July 23, 2007

### Simulations for Tuesday, July 24th

 Simulations for Tuesday, July 24th. Current prediction record is 168-131. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Favored Team Expected Chance of Winning Outcome Dodgers vs Astros M.Hendrickson vs J.Jennings Dodgers 51.40 Astros Padres vs Rockies C.Young vs U.Jimenez Padres 54.85 Padres Marlins vs DBacks S.Mitre vs L.Hernandez Marlins 53.15 DBacks Braves vs Giants T.Hudson vs M.Morris Braves 55.95 Braves Vegas Baseball Odds

## Sunday, July 22, 2007

### Simulations for Monday, July 23rd

 Simulations for Monday, July 23rd. Current prediction record is 164-131. Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Favored Team Expected Chance of Winning Outcome Dodgers vs Astros C.Billingsley vs C.Sampson Dodgers 52.90 Dodgers Padres vs Rockies G.Maddux vs J.Francis Rockies 51.95 Rockies Marlins vs DBacks D.Willis vs D.Davis DBacks 53.70 DBacks Braves vs Giants J.Smoltz vs M.Cain Braves 51.35 Braves Vegas Baseball Odds