Thursday, March 31, 2011

April 1st, Baseball Simulations

April 1st Simulations ...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Units Bet Final Score
Giants Dodgers J.Sanchez vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 54.55% 57.97% LAN, 0.9 LAN 4-3
Mariners Athletics F.Hernandez vs T.Cahill Athletics 52.83% 53.06% 0.0 SEA 6-2
Astros Phillies B.Myers vs R.Halladay Phillies 71.43% 64.32% HOU, 1.0 PHI 5-4
Twins Blue Jays C.Pavano vs R.Romero Blue Jays 55.75% 54.23% 0.0 TOR 13-3
Mets Marlins M.Pelfrey vs J.Johnson Marlins 62.83% 56.14% NYN, 1.1 FLA 6-2
White Sox Indians M.Buehrle vs F.Carmona Indians 50.00% 53.15% CLE, 0.5 CHA 15-10
Orioles Rays J.Guthrie vs D.Price Rays 65.16% 55.06% BAL, 1.6 BAL 4-1
Red Sox Rangers J.Lester vs C.Wilson Red Sox 54.34% 45.36% TEX, 1.6 TEX 9-5
Pirates Cubs K.Correia vs R.Dempster Cubs 63.24% 62.97% 0.0 PIT 6-3
Angels Royals D.Haren vs J.Francis Angels 57.81% 55.36% 0.0 KC 2-1
DBacks Rockies I.Kennedy vs U.Jimenez Rockies 65.52% 72.36% COL, 2.5 ARI 7-6

Seasonal ROI: -12.00%

MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Opening Day Simulation

March 31st Opening Day Simulations ...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Units Bet Final Score
Giants Dodgers T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 50.50% 54.59% LAN/0.8 LAN 2-1
Tigers Yankees J.Verlander vs C.Sabathia Yankees 59.35% 58.91% 0.0 NYA 6-3
Royals Angels L.Hochevar vs J.Weaver Angels 58.51% 57.60% 0.0 LAA 4-2
Braves Nationals D.Lowe vs L.Hernandez Braves 58.33% 41.10% WAS/3.4 ATL 2-0
Padres Cardinals T.Stauffer vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 65.52% 60.79% SD/0.6 SD 5-3
Brewers Reds Y.Gallardo vs E.Volquez Reds 53.27% 56.88% CIN/1.0 CIN 7-6

Seasonal ROI: 0.00%

Dodgers simulation details/contest at True Blue LA

MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Organizational Rankings

Inspired by the second annual MLB Organization Rankings done by Fangraphs, I have decided to calculate my own. Last year famously, Fangraphs took a lot of deserved heat for ranking the Seattle Mariners, the laughing stock of baseball in 2010, as the #6Org. There was much uproar about the validity of a system that could rank them so high. While the 2011 list from Fangraphs is just underway, they have already raised my eyebrows by ranking the Dodgers as the #23Org. So I took it upon myself to see how difficult it would be do come up with a more sensible organizational ranking system. Not only that, but I've made my spreadsheet used to come up with my rankings a public google document.

Of course I don't have the hoards of databases and "expert" writers at my disposal to create such a ranking, but I feel I have done as good of job in the 60 minutes time it took me to slap together this ranking system. Below are the inputs and weightings used.

1. Recent success and future forecasted success (winning games, making playoffs). This takes into consideration the number of games the team won over the past three years, along with their expected win total from Vegas for the 2011 season, plus a multiplier for number of times the team has made the playoffs over the past three years.
2. Minor league system (Baseball Prospectus)
3. Market Cap / Value of team (Forbes)
4. $Win efficiency (2011 Expected Wins above replacment per millions in projected payroll). The number of wins above 48 that the team is expected to have in the 2011 season (Vegas over/under) divided by its expected 2011 payroll.

1. 50%
2. 25%
3. 10%
4. 15%

With that, here is the list...

TeamRecent SuccessMinorsMarket CapEfficiency RankWeighted Final AverageFinal Rank

Baseball Prosectus
MLB Contracts

Friday, March 18, 2011

2011 MLB Schedule In Text Ascii Format

I began looking for an online MLB schedule in text ascii format. I couldn't find one anywhere, so I decided to make my own. After scraping the schedules off of and writing a program to parse the data, I have come up with my own text ascii (csv) 2011 MLB Schedule.

The format is the following:

Game Number,Year,Month,Day,Away,Home

The game number is just a counter from 1 to 2431 of all the scheduled games. It is easy enough to change or ignore the game counter if need be, but I use it. I have uploaded this text ascii csv file as a shared Google document, one that anyone with the link can view or download.

Note: Second version (3/19) of file is currently loaded as first version listed FLA for all Seattle games.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Diamondbacks vs Rockies, Opening Day Simulation

Here is a simulation of the Diamondbacks and Rockies opening day game. Both teams starting pitchers for their first game of the season are locks. I have used starting lineups from the wonderful site MLBDepthCharts.Com. Below are the box scores from the simulation along with the results.

PlayerPos PlayerPos
Stephen DrewSS Dexter FowlerCF
Justin UptonRF Seth SmithRF
Kelly Johnson2B Carlos GonzalezLF
Chris YoungCF Troy TulowitzkiSS
Miguel MonteroC Todd Helton1B
Xavier NadyLF Ian Stewart3B
Melvin Mora3B Jose Lopez2B
Juan Miranda1B Chris IannettaC
Ian KennedyP Ubaldo JimenezP

... And now the results!

AwayHome  FavoriteWin/Prob
ARICOLIan KennedyUbaldo JimenezCOL71.79%

It looks like the Rockies will be big favorites to win their opening day game against the Diamondbacks. This is not a big surprise as the Rockies are the stronger of the two teams, the starting pitching matchup is clearly not even and the game is being played in Denver. Besides Putz, the Diamondbacks bullpen gets hammered.

Here is the hitter(s) boxscores
Stephen Drew4.3371.2070.7220.3090.0950.0810.3470.4351.070.346
Justin Upton4.1961.1760.7710.2660.0170.1230.4330.3921.4010.343
Kelly Johnson4.1171.1090.650.3030.0470.1090.4540.451.2080.344
Chris Young4.0461.0110.610.2670.0180.1160.4970.3741.2370.318
Miguel Montero3.9621.0520.6670.2870.020.0770.450.41.1050.327
Xavier Nady3.9241.0690.7040.2480.0060.1110.480.2841.1230.326
Melvin Mora3.8181.1230.7480.2680.0230.0840.4390.2770.8740.343
Juan Miranda3.791.1480.7910.2610.0140.0820.4470.2350.6470.344
Ian Kennedy3.7550.4270.3460.0680.0030.010.1440.1432.150.134
Dexter Fowler4.3121.4290.8350.3570.1290.1070.4720.4690.930.406
Seth Smith4.1951.3730.7720.3450.0440.2120.6790.5010.8840.419
Carlos Gonzalez4.1881.5510.8590.3430.0880.2610.8660.440.9850.467
Troy Tulowitzki4.1141.4370.8060.3610.0570.2130.8550.3570.7670.433
Todd Helton3.8121.3670.8350.350.0270.1550.7540.6050.7330.445
Ian Stewart3.8641.2350.6980.3260.0370.1750.760.4360.9070.406
Jose Lopez3.9461.2690.8190.3170.020.1130.6340.1970.5540.368
Chris Iannetta3.6561.0990.6850.2790.0160.1190.5630.3820.7750.37
Ubaldo Jimenez3.7840.5930.4740.0980.0060.0150.2160.1621.6940.178

And the pitchers boxscore
Ubaldo Jimenez6.2017.3872.2456.1950.435102.7762.816
Huston Street0.4110.5070.0760.3990.0366.4292.416
Matt Belisle0.390.4420.0620.4040.0396.072.718
Rafael Betancourt0.7281.0730.1350.6740.10211.5652.634
Matt Lindstrom0.380.3610.1280.4410.0456.33.857
Matt Reynolds0.770.7810.2540.9170.10412.8983.918
Matt Daley0.2530.2610.0880.2870.0324.2193.834
Franklin Morales0.0040.0040.0020.0050.0010.0684.607
Ian Kennedy5.2145.0882.0347.0620.83991.3674.51
J.J. Putz0.3260.4110.0990.3510.035.4242.796
Juan Gutierrez0.4250.4070.1580.570.0767.3724.722
David Hernandez0.7240.7160.3540.9760.13813.0565.172
Esmerling Vasquez0.4760.4840.3120.610.078.9095.058
Aaron Heilman0.8130.7420.3681.1320.14514.5225.049
Joe Paterson0.4490.3680.2170.6290.0698.0324.999
Mike Hampton0.0170.0130.0070.0240.0020.3034.634

Friday, March 11, 2011

Simulated 2011 NL West Projected Wins

Using my simulator to play out the 2011 schedules for NL West teams. Each game of each team's actual schedule was simulated 10,000 times. There is obviously some margin of error in these numbers. But they should be as good as anything anybody else puts out there.


Notes: My simulator uses a proprietary set of player projections as input. It also takes into consideration defense, home field advantage, park factors, splits, bullpens, speed, among many other things.

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

NL Centra/East, Saves Over/Under

On the heels of the NL West saves over/under numbers, here are the saves over/unders for the NL Central and East. Once again, feel free to provide any feedback on numbers you feel are too high or low.

NL Centra/East
PlayerTeamSaves Over/Under
Brandon LyonHOU31.5
Wilton LopezHOU2.5
Mark MelanconHOU2.5
Craig KimbrelATL21.5
Jonny VentersATL9.5
John AxfordMIL24.5
Takashi SaitoMIL4.5
Ryan FranklinSTL34.5
Jason MotteSTL3.5
Carlos MarmolCHC40.5
Kerry WoodCHC2.5
Leo NunezFLA32.5
Clay HensleyFLA4.5
Francisco RodriguezNYM34.5
Bobby ParnellNYM3.5
Drew StorenWAS22.5
Sean BurnettWAS3.5
Tyler ClippardWAS3.5
Brad LidgePHI36.5
Ryan MadsonPHI3.5
Joel HanrahanPIT20.5
Evan MeekPIT9.5
Francisco CorderoCIN24.5
Ardolis ChapmanCIN7.5
Nick MassetCIN2.5

NL West Over/Under On Saves

There is a science behind baseball player projections. But one of the more difficult stats to project is one of the more important one for fantasy baseball enthusiasts and that is saves. Saves by itself is not a great indicator of a pitchers talent, but nonetheless it is important for this niche of fantasy baseball managers to have a good swag on how many saves a closer or closer in waiting will likely get. There is obviously a large margin of error on any projection of saves but a good over/under (or mean average) number shouldn't be too difficult to publish. I am beginning publishing some save over/under numbers, starting with the NL West. I would like to get as much feedback as possible, so these numbers can be as representative as possible of a "Vegas type" over/under number. Please provide your thoughts below.

NL West
PlayerTeamSaves Over/Under