Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Diamondbacks vs Rockies, Opening Day Simulation

Here is a simulation of the Diamondbacks and Rockies opening day game. Both teams starting pitchers for their first game of the season are locks. I have used starting lineups from the wonderful site MLBDepthCharts.Com. Below are the box scores from the simulation along with the results.

Lineups
PlayerPos PlayerPos
Stephen DrewSS Dexter FowlerCF
Justin UptonRF Seth SmithRF
Kelly Johnson2B Carlos GonzalezLF
Chris YoungCF Troy TulowitzkiSS
Miguel MonteroC Todd Helton1B
Xavier NadyLF Ian Stewart3B
Melvin Mora3B Jose Lopez2B
Juan Miranda1B Chris IannettaC
Ian KennedyP Ubaldo JimenezP


... And now the results!

AwayHome  FavoriteWin/Prob
ARICOLIan KennedyUbaldo JimenezCOL71.79%


It looks like the Rockies will be big favorites to win their opening day game against the Diamondbacks. This is not a big surprise as the Rockies are the stronger of the two teams, the starting pitching matchup is clearly not even and the game is being played in Denver. Besides Putz, the Diamondbacks bullpen gets hammered.

Here is the hitter(s) boxscores
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBA
Stephen Drew4.3371.2070.7220.3090.0950.0810.3470.4351.070.346
Justin Upton4.1961.1760.7710.2660.0170.1230.4330.3921.4010.343
Kelly Johnson4.1171.1090.650.3030.0470.1090.4540.451.2080.344
Chris Young4.0461.0110.610.2670.0180.1160.4970.3741.2370.318
Miguel Montero3.9621.0520.6670.2870.020.0770.450.41.1050.327
Xavier Nady3.9241.0690.7040.2480.0060.1110.480.2841.1230.326
Melvin Mora3.8181.1230.7480.2680.0230.0840.4390.2770.8740.343
Juan Miranda3.791.1480.7910.2610.0140.0820.4470.2350.6470.344
Ian Kennedy3.7550.4270.3460.0680.0030.010.1440.1432.150.134
 
Dexter Fowler4.3121.4290.8350.3570.1290.1070.4720.4690.930.406
Seth Smith4.1951.3730.7720.3450.0440.2120.6790.5010.8840.419
Carlos Gonzalez4.1881.5510.8590.3430.0880.2610.8660.440.9850.467
Troy Tulowitzki4.1141.4370.8060.3610.0570.2130.8550.3570.7670.433
Todd Helton3.8121.3670.8350.350.0270.1550.7540.6050.7330.445
Ian Stewart3.8641.2350.6980.3260.0370.1750.760.4360.9070.406
Jose Lopez3.9461.2690.8190.3170.020.1130.6340.1970.5540.368
Chris Iannetta3.6561.0990.6850.2790.0160.1190.5630.3820.7750.37
Ubaldo Jimenez3.7840.5930.4740.0980.0060.0150.2160.1621.6940.178


And the pitchers boxscore
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Ubaldo Jimenez6.2017.3872.2456.1950.435102.7762.816
Huston Street0.4110.5070.0760.3990.0366.4292.416
Matt Belisle0.390.4420.0620.4040.0396.072.718
Rafael Betancourt0.7281.0730.1350.6740.10211.5652.634
Matt Lindstrom0.380.3610.1280.4410.0456.33.857
Matt Reynolds0.770.7810.2540.9170.10412.8983.918
Matt Daley0.2530.2610.0880.2870.0324.2193.834
Franklin Morales0.0040.0040.0020.0050.0010.0684.607
 
Ian Kennedy5.2145.0882.0347.0620.83991.3674.51
J.J. Putz0.3260.4110.0990.3510.035.4242.796
Juan Gutierrez0.4250.4070.1580.570.0767.3724.722
David Hernandez0.7240.7160.3540.9760.13813.0565.172
Esmerling Vasquez0.4760.4840.3120.610.078.9095.058
Aaron Heilman0.8130.7420.3681.1320.14514.5225.049
Joe Paterson0.4490.3680.2170.6290.0698.0324.999
Mike Hampton0.0170.0130.0070.0240.0020.3034.634


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