## Friday, November 30, 2007

### Dodger Pitching Comparables

Depth at starting pitching is a strength of the Dodgers team. There is alot of question as to who the Dodgers should use as a 5th starter, or even a 4th starter if Jason Schmidt is not healthy to start the season. I have put together a matrix listing the most similar Dodger starting pitchers. Keep in mind that I am no Bill James, and this may or may not be of any importance. The three variables I am using to find similarities between starting pitchers are K/9, HR/9 and (K-BB)/IP. I am not taking age or health into consideration, this is a pure statistical analysis, which uses 2008 ZIPS projections as it's input data. I have a utility that calculates the similarity scores for me and I choose these three categories based on what I felt was most important. I could have easily choosen different categories. I am throwing in NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy just to get a fill as to which Dodger pitcher has the closest similarity score as the best National League pitcher. The formula used to compute the similarity scores was the square root of the deltas squared of the three categories summed together. Deltas are measured by the percent difference in each category.
Sqrt((xp1-xp2)^2 + (yp1-yp2)^2 + (zp1-zp2)^2)
Where x=K/9, y=HR/9, z=K-BB/IP, p1=Player1, p2=Player2, p3=Player3
 Dodger Starting Pitcher Similarity Score Matrix Penny Lowe Billingsley Schmidt Loaiza Guo Houlton Stults Kuroda Peavy Penny NA .3403 .3804 .5192 .7853 .7809 1.1192 .8550 .4605 .9946 Lowe .3403 NA .3567 .6444 .3758 .8664 .6239 .4291 .2165 1.2509 Billingsley .3804 .3567 NA .2876 .4263 .4818 .6902 .5500 .2408 .8788 Schmidt .5192 .6444 .2876 NA .6841 .2102 .9839 .8967 .4509 .4811 Loaiza .7853 .3758 .4263 .6841 NA .7995 .2323 .1940 .2691 1.3179 Guo .7809 .8664 .4818 .2102 .7995 NA 1.0784 1.0710 .6094 .4127 Houlton 1.1193 .6239 .6902 .9839 .2323 1.0784 NA .1662 .5451 1.7185 Stults .8550 .4291 .5500 .8967 .1940 1.0710 .1662 NA .4434 1.6733 Kuroda .4605 .2165 .2408 .4509 .2691 .6094 .5451 .4434 NA .9795 Peavy .9946 1.2509 .8788 .4811 1.3179 .4127 1.7185 1.6733 .9795 NA

You will notice that HongZhi Guo and Jason Schmidt have the closest similarity scores to 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and of the most likely top 5 starters, Esteban Loaiza and Derek Lowe are the least similar to Jake Peavy. While Loaiza has a very close similarity score to Houlton and Stults, Loaiza is much more similar than Houlton and Stults to the stronger Dodger pitchers. I may add more NL West starting pitchers at a later date and a possible rundown of Dodger hitter similarity scores. Below is a list of the top 10 similarity scores of Dodger starting pitchers.

 Rank Pitchers Similarity Score 1 Houlton/Stults .1662 2 Loaiza/Stults .1940 3 Schmidt/Guo .2102 4 Lowe/Kuroda .2165 5 Loaiza/Houlton .2323 6 Billingsley/Kuroda .2408 7 Loaiza/Kuroda .2691 8 Billingsley/Schmidt .2876 9 Penny/Lowe .3403 10 Lowe/Billingsley .3567

## Tuesday, November 13, 2007

### 2008 Player Projections

 Matt Kemp System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James M.Kemp .322 .365 .508 .873 CHONE M.Kemp .289 .337 .467 .804 ZIPS M.Kemp .303 .348 .483 .831 Marcel M.Kemp .311 .356 .490 .846 PECOTA M.Kemp TBD TBD TBD TBD Jeff Kent System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James J.Kent .290 .368 .486 .854 CHONE J.Kent .273 .356 .452 .808 ZIPS J.Kent .268 .352 .444 .796 Marcel J.Kent .281 .362 .464 .826 PECOTA J.Kent TBD TBD TBD TBD Andre Ethier System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James A.Ethier .304 .371 .477 .847 CHONE A.Ethier .279 .348 .436 .784 ZIPS A.Ethier .288 .357 .459 .816 Marcel A.Ethier .295 .361 .466 .827 PECOTA A.Ethier TBD TBD TBD TBD Russell Martin System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James R.Martin .292 .379 .456 .835 CHONE R.Martin .282 .376 .438 .814 ZIPS R.Martin .280 .365 .432 .797 Marcel R.Martin .293 .371 .459 .830 PECOTA R.Martin TBD TBD TBD TBD Andy LaRoche System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James A.LaRoche .275 .367 .458 .825 CHONE A.LaRoche .268 .356 .455 .811 ZIPS A.LaRoche .256 .343 .431 .774 Marcel A.LaRoche .265 .354 .413 .767 PECOTA A.LaRoche TBD TBD TBD TBD James Loney System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James J.Loney .302 .359 .465 .823 CHONE J.Loney .284 .347 .431 .778 ZIPS J.Loney .296 .350 .470 .820 Marcel J.Loney .315 .372 .514 .886 PECOTA J.Loney TBD TBD TBD TBD Andruw Jones System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James A.Jones .253 .343 .491 .834 CHONE A.Jones .249 .345 .491 .836 ZIPS A.Jones .249 .344 .503 .847 Marcel A.Jones .248 .337 .479 .816 PECOTA A.Jones TBD TBD TBD TBD Nomar Garciappara System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James N.Garciappara .292 .347 .451 .798 CHONE N.Garciappara .282 .340 .423 .763 ZIPS N.Garciappara .268 .329 .384 .713 Marcel N.Garciappara .281 .336 .425 .761 PECOTA N.Garciappara TBD TBD TBD TBD Rafael Furcal System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James R.Furcal .286 .352 .403 .755 CHONE R.Furcal .277 .348 .394 .742 ZIPS R.Furcal .276 .346 .387 .733 Marcel R.Furcal .281 .348 .407 .755 PECOTA R.Furcal TBD TBD TBD TBD Delwyn Young System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James D.Young .258 .307 .429 .736 CHONE D.Young .258 .307 .429 .736 ZIPS D.Young .255 .295 .408 .703 Marcel D.Young .286 .350 .464 .815 PECOTA D.Young TBD TBD TBD TBD Tony Abreu System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James T.Abreu .288 .332 .399 .731 CHONE T.Abreu .275 .321 .394 .715 ZIPS T.Abreu .267 .313 .362 .675 Marcel T.Abreu .280 .337 .433 .770 PECOTA T.Abreu TBD TBD TBD TBD Juan Pierre System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS Bill James J.Pierre .298 .343 .361 .703 CHONE J.Pierre .288 .333 .363 .696 ZIPS J.Pierre .277 .318 .347 .665 Marcel J.Pierre .284 .329 .370 .699 PECOTA J.Pierre TBD TBD TBD TBD

# Pitchers

 Brad Penny System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 195 6.42 2.24 0.39 0.74 3.83 1.33 CHONE 195 6.18 1.97 0.34 0.83 4.11 1.38 ZIPS 200 6.39 2.33 0.41 0.72 3.82 1.33 Baseball HQ 203 6.10 1.96 0.33 0.9 3.90 1.36 Derek Lowe System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 212 5.69 1.96 0.34 0.81 3.78 1.31 CHONE 207 5.96 2.21 0.36 0.78 3.70 1.30 ZIPS 210 5.79 2.33 0.37 0.94 3.99 1.30 Baseball HQ 218 5.90 2.31 0.37 0.7 3.84 1.31 Chad Billingsley System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 185 8.66 2.09 0.50 0.88 3.79 1.35 CHONE 147 8.51 2.11 0.50 1.04 3.98 1.37 ZIPS 180 7.70 1.97 0.42 0.95 4.00 1.40 Baseball HQ 189 8.30 2.05 0.47 0.8 3.52 1.32 Jason Schmidt System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 145 8.63 2.48 0.57 0.81 3.41 1.25 CHONE 117 7.54 1.92 0.40 1.08 4.15 1.38 ZIPS 119 8.55 2.26 0.53 0.91 4.08 1.36 Baseball HQ 145 7.8 1.92 0.41 1.20 4.41 1.41 Esteban Loaiza System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 120 6.15 2.41 0.40 1.05 4.35 1.39 CHONE 126 5.93 1.93 0.32 1.14 4.57 1.40 ZIPS 127 6.38 1.48 0.37 1.28 4.89 1.43 Baseball HQ 174 4.80 1.48 0.17 1.20 4.91 1.51 Hiroki Kuroda System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD CHONE 181 6.81 2.80 0.49 1.04 3.78 1.23 ZIPS 180 5.70 3.08 0.43 1.05 3.92 1.24 Baseball HQ TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD HongZhi Guo System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD CHONE 66 9.00 2.28 0.56 0.95 4.09 1.38 ZIPS 78 9.23 2.42 0.60 1.04 4.38 1.37 Baseball HQ 73 10.90 2.51 0.73 0.60 4.32 1.35 D.J. Houlton System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 34 6.88 2.00 0.38 1.32 4.76 1.44 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 138 6.37 1.83 0.32 1.50 5.15 1.46 Baseball HQ 44 5.50 1.35 0.16 1.40 5.32 1.84 Eric Stults System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 53 7.30 2.05 0.42 1.02 5.26 1.57 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 147 6.31 1.81 0.31 1.29 5.14 1.50 Baseball HQ 29 6.20 1.54 0.24 0.60 4.34 1.52 Takashi Saito System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 68 9.00 3.78 0.74 0.93 3.31 1.13 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 66 10.91 4.44 0.94 0.68 2.05 1.00 Baseball HQ 58 10.4 4.19 0.88 0.90 2.79 1.03 Jonathon Broxton System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 83 11.17 3.32 0.87 0.54 3.04 1.19 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 96 10.7 3.97 0.90 0.75 2.91 1.14 Baseball HQ 58 10.9 3.89 0.90 0.60 2.64 1.12 Joe Beimel System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 66 5.05 1.37 0.15 0.68 4.09 1.45 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 73 5.18 1.68 0.23 0.62 3.95 1.37 Baseball HQ 44 4.90 1.50 0.18 0.80 4.30 1.36 Eric Hull System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 72 8.25 2.06 0.47 0.88 4.00 1.39 Baseball HQ 29 8.10 1.86 0.41 0.60 3.72 1.72 Rudy Seanez System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 78 9.69 2.33 0.62 1.04 4.15 1.41 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 65 9.28 2.39 0.60 1.11 4.15 1.40 Baseball HQ 44 8.20 2.00 0.45 1.00 3.90 1.36 Scott Proctor System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James 80 7.65 2.06 0.44 1.46 4.50 1.38 CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 93 8.13 2.15 0.48 1.55 4.65 1.40 Baseball HQ 58 6.80 1.69 0.31 1.40 4.34 1.48 Jonathon Meloan System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP Bill James TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD ZIPS 72 9.50 2.38 0.61 1.75 5.00 1.40 Baseball HQ 44 9.80 2.09 0.57 1.00 3.89 1.32

2007 Projection Accuracy Study