Xizzles

I am debuting my very own projection system. Tonight the cover is off of the Xizzles, my very own baseball projection system. The algorithm for the system will not be made public but it is based off of a system that follows the following guidelines.

1) Keep it as simple as possible.
2) Automation
3) More recent performance weighted heavier.
4) Regression to the mean.
5) Age adjustments.

The system will not focus on opportunity based stats like RBIs, Runs, SB and Saves which are heavily dependent upon how the manager uses the player, where in the lineup a player bats, or the performance of the players hitting in front of him. Instead it will focus on rate stats (like HR/AB) and then borrow playing time projections (number of at bats or innings pitched) from some of the popular forecasting systems available. Since this is the initial roll out of the Xizzles, I will obviously be looking at ways to improve the system and visitor (do I have any visitors?) input is welcome. Here are the 2010 Xizzles for a few of the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers hitters.

2010 Los Angeles Dodgers (last updated 12/17/09)

Name	Pos	AB	Hits	1B	2B	3B	HR	AVE	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	BABIP
Matt Kemp	CF	600.0	176.6	117.0	27.2	5.7	26.7	0.294	0.348	0.492	0.840	0.363	0.341
Andre Ethier	RF	580.0	161.3	87.5	40.9	3.3	29.5	0.278	0.357	0.513	0.870	0.374	0.298
Manny Ramirez	LF	510.0	147.8	86.4	32.7	2.4	26.3	0.290	0.404	0.518	0.921	0.401	0.332
Casey Blake	3B	500.0	137.6	89.4	25.4	5.2	17.6	0.275	0.356	0.452	0.808	0.354	0.331
Rafael Furcal	SS	600.0	164.2	122.1	27.4	5.3	9.4	0.274	0.341	0.384	0.725	0.325	0.306
Blake DeWitt	3B	400.0	103.3	63.7	25.1	2.5	12.0	0.258	0.321	0.424	0.745	0.326	0.281
Russell Martin	C	515.0	131.2	101.3	20.0	0.1	9.7	0.255	0.347	0.351	0.698	0.319	0.284
James Loney	1B	550.0	156.1	114.2	24.8	2.5	14.6	0.284	0.359	0.417	0.776	0.345	0.302
Jamey Carroll	2B	200.0	53.0	44.3	6.4	1.1	1.2	0.265	0.337	0.326	0.662	0.304	0.328
Jason Repko	CF	175.0	40.9	24.9	11.5	1.4	3.0	0.234	0.286	0.367	0.653	0.288	0.275
Xavier Paul	RF	175.0	46.1	30.3	9.1	0.3	6.4	0.263	0.326	0.429	0.755	0.330	0.297

2008 Player Projections

Matt Kemp
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	M.Kemp	.322	.365	.508	.873
CHONE	M.Kemp	.289	.337	.467	.804
ZIPS	M.Kemp	.303	.348	.483	.831
Marcel	M.Kemp	.311	.356	.490	.846
PECOTA	M.Kemp	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Jeff Kent
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Kent	.290	.368	.486	.854
CHONE	J.Kent	.273	.356	.452	.808
ZIPS	J.Kent	.268	.352	.444	.796
Marcel	J.Kent	.281	.362	.464	.826
PECOTA	J.Kent	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andre Ethier
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.Ethier	.304	.371	.477	.847
CHONE	A.Ethier	.279	.348	.436	.784
ZIPS	A.Ethier	.288	.357	.459	.816
Marcel	A.Ethier	.295	.361	.466	.827
PECOTA	A.Ethier	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Russell Martin
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	R.Martin	.292	.379	.456	.835
CHONE	R.Martin	.282	.376	.438	.814
ZIPS	R.Martin	.280	.365	.432	.797
Marcel	R.Martin	.293	.371	.459	.830
PECOTA	R.Martin	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andy LaRoche
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.LaRoche	.275	.367	.458	.825
CHONE	A.LaRoche	.268	.356	.455	.811
ZIPS	A.LaRoche	.256	.343	.431	.774
Marcel	A.LaRoche	.265	.354	.413	.767
PECOTA	A.LaRoche	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
James Loney
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Loney	.302	.359	.465	.823
CHONE	J.Loney	.284	.347	.431	.778
ZIPS	J.Loney	.296	.350	.470	.820
Marcel	J.Loney	.315	.372	.514	.886
PECOTA	J.Loney	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andruw Jones
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.Jones	.253	.343	.491	.834
CHONE	A.Jones	.249	.345	.491	.836
ZIPS	A.Jones	.249	.344	.503	.847
Marcel	A.Jones	.248	.337	.479	.816
PECOTA	A.Jones	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Nomar Garciappara
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	N.Garciappara	.292	.347	.451	.798
CHONE	N.Garciappara	.282	.340	.423	.763
ZIPS	N.Garciappara	.268	.329	.384	.713
Marcel	N.Garciappara	.281	.336	.425	.761
PECOTA	N.Garciappara	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Rafael Furcal
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	R.Furcal	.286	.352	.403	.755
CHONE	R.Furcal	.277	.348	.394	.742
ZIPS	R.Furcal	.276	.346	.387	.733
Marcel	R.Furcal	.281	.348	.407	.755
PECOTA	R.Furcal	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Delwyn Young
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	D.Young	.258	.307	.429	.736
CHONE	D.Young	.258	.307	.429	.736
ZIPS	D.Young	.255	.295	.408	.703
Marcel	D.Young	.286	.350	.464	.815
PECOTA	D.Young	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Tony Abreu
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	T.Abreu	.288	.332	.399	.731
CHONE	T.Abreu	.275	.321	.394	.715
ZIPS	T.Abreu	.267	.313	.362	.675
Marcel	T.Abreu	.280	.337	.433	.770
PECOTA	T.Abreu	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Juan Pierre
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Pierre	.298	.343	.361	.703
CHONE	J.Pierre	.288	.333	.363	.696
ZIPS	J.Pierre	.277	.318	.347	.665
Marcel	J.Pierre	.284	.329	.370	.699
PECOTA	J.Pierre	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD

Pitchers

Brad Penny
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	195	6.42	2.24	0.39	0.74	3.83	1.33
CHONE	195	6.18	1.97	0.34	0.83	4.11	1.38
ZIPS	200	6.39	2.33	0.41	0.72	3.82	1.33
Baseball HQ	203	6.10	1.96	0.33	0.9	3.90	1.36
Derek Lowe
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	212	5.69	1.96	0.34	0.81	3.78	1.31
CHONE	207	5.96	2.21	0.36	0.78	3.70	1.30
ZIPS	210	5.79	2.33	0.37	0.94	3.99	1.30
Baseball HQ	218	5.90	2.31	0.37	0.7	3.84	1.31
Chad Billingsley
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	185	8.66	2.09	0.50	0.88	3.79	1.35
CHONE	147	8.51	2.11	0.50	1.04	3.98	1.37
ZIPS	180	7.70	1.97	0.42	0.95	4.00	1.40
Baseball HQ	189	8.30	2.05	0.47	0.8	3.52	1.32
Jason Schmidt
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	145	8.63	2.48	0.57	0.81	3.41	1.25
CHONE	117	7.54	1.92	0.40	1.08	4.15	1.38
ZIPS	119	8.55	2.26	0.53	0.91	4.08	1.36
Baseball HQ	145	7.8	1.92	0.41	1.20	4.41	1.41
Esteban Loaiza
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	120	6.15	2.41	0.40	1.05	4.35	1.39
CHONE	126	5.93	1.93	0.32	1.14	4.57	1.40
ZIPS	127	6.38	1.48	0.37	1.28	4.89	1.43
Baseball HQ	174	4.80	1.48	0.17	1.20	4.91	1.51
Hiroki Kuroda
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	181	6.81	2.80	0.49	1.04	3.78	1.23
ZIPS	180	5.70	3.08	0.43	1.05	3.92	1.24
Baseball HQ	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
HongZhi Guo
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	66	9.00	2.28	0.56	0.95	4.09	1.38
ZIPS	78	9.23	2.42	0.60	1.04	4.38	1.37
Baseball HQ	73	10.90	2.51	0.73	0.60	4.32	1.35
D.J. Houlton
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	34	6.88	2.00	0.38	1.32	4.76	1.44
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	138	6.37	1.83	0.32	1.50	5.15	1.46
Baseball HQ	44	5.50	1.35	0.16	1.40	5.32	1.84
Eric Stults
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	53	7.30	2.05	0.42	1.02	5.26	1.57
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	147	6.31	1.81	0.31	1.29	5.14	1.50
Baseball HQ	29	6.20	1.54	0.24	0.60	4.34	1.52
Takashi Saito
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	68	9.00	3.78	0.74	0.93	3.31	1.13
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	66	10.91	4.44	0.94	0.68	2.05	1.00
Baseball HQ	58	10.4	4.19	0.88	0.90	2.79	1.03
Jonathon Broxton
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	83	11.17	3.32	0.87	0.54	3.04	1.19
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	96	10.7	3.97	0.90	0.75	2.91	1.14
Baseball HQ	58	10.9	3.89	0.90	0.60	2.64	1.12
Joe Beimel
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	66	5.05	1.37	0.15	0.68	4.09	1.45
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	73	5.18	1.68	0.23	0.62	3.95	1.37
Baseball HQ	44	4.90	1.50	0.18	0.80	4.30	1.36
Eric Hull
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	72	8.25	2.06	0.47	0.88	4.00	1.39
Baseball HQ	29	8.10	1.86	0.41	0.60	3.72	1.72
Rudy Seanez
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	78	9.69	2.33	0.62	1.04	4.15	1.41
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	65	9.28	2.39	0.60	1.11	4.15	1.40
Baseball HQ	44	8.20	2.00	0.45	1.00	3.90	1.36
Scott Proctor
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	80	7.65	2.06	0.44	1.46	4.50	1.38
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	93	8.13	2.15	0.48	1.55	4.65	1.40
Baseball HQ	58	6.80	1.69	0.31	1.40	4.34	1.48
Jonathon Meloan
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	72	9.50	2.38	0.61	1.75	5.00	1.40
Baseball HQ	44	9.80	2.09	0.57	1.00	3.89	1.32

2007 Projection Accuracy Study