Showing posts with label Diamondbacks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Diamondbacks. Show all posts

Sunday, April 20, 2014

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Sunday's Simulation Results


                                                 *** Simulation Results ***

AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteRuns/GameRuns/GameWin %Total R/G
DbacksDodgersJosh CollmenterJosh BeckettDodgers3.436613.9054558.1487.34206

                                  Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDbacksDodgersOccurrencesRankDbacksDodgersOccurrences
12346415175620
23439995276601
31238705307570
43229545471552
51327505528522
64527465618506
72427445783506
84325825838488
92125105960484
101422486084438
114220836182434
122520276258396
133520086348395
143119826485380
150118686581370
160218446608369
170318226778362
185417836829356
195317406970343
205617017019329
211516377186323
224116317239316
235215437393303
240414837468292
253613207587290
262612807649277
2710120677210256
282011807894256
291611487992246
305111358091231
310511258109224
324611018295222
336310878359221
3464108784110214
356510678580208
3662104986310181
373010478796180
382789488103164
396184989102163
40068379089159
411782691104150
423781292410147
43678009369147
444078394105141
454773795010137
46737129679134
477270797101134
48746959897131
49506309998127
5057620100211125

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results (Saturday 4/19)


                                                     *** Simulation Results ***

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFavoriteDbacks RSDodgers RSDodgers %Total Runs
DbacksDodgersMichael BolsingerDan HarenDodgers3.162293.8336460.4176.99593

                                     Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDbacksDodgersOccurrencesRankDbacksDodgersOccurrences
12347365150588
21243335218538
33438895375532
41331505457507
53230755571505
62428135638479
72127215708449
84526025876446
94325455983424
101425146082411
110123646160410
120321766229399
134221246348372
140220996419343
153120546584341
162520196678323
173519446758321
181519046885285
190417736939282
205417567081267
215316297193248
224115747270247
235214637368241
245614547486236
251013477549233
260513437692233
272613357709232
282013227887231
2916131979210222
303612698094210
3146111181110202
325110578295187
3330105283310184
3463102884010173
356410088591173
36659598680170
37279448759168
38069358896139
396292989410134
401792690111133
41408419189132
423779492104131
436172393211129
446771194102128
45476659569124
46736369697122
472861397103118
487260798105116
497460799101113
5007589100311109

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Dbacks vs Dodgers - Friday's Simulation Results


                                         *** Simulation Results ***

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

RankDbacksDodgersOccurrencesRankDbacksDodgersOccurrences
1125180951074922
2235139152474885
3343734653754410
4213568654184161
5323567055824142
6013145356284069
7133092057574015
8312610358703962
9432595959833839
10242531760763798
11022469161813719
12422352862383497
13142295063843253
14452269564082966
15102173765482724
16032072966292588
17201971867852526
18411938668922524
19251695969192512
20301634770802468
21531584771782418
22521579072932298
23351578073582240
24041568074912176
25151533875392112
26541527176861997
27511324777941911
28401230378091907
29561165479681694
30051135580491583
31261060781871566
321610415822101531
336210285831101521
34361000984901489
3563998985951464
36649017861021410
37618984871031292
38508868881011271
3946844189591245
40658121903101209
41067666910101144
4272663892961117
43276591931041071
4417657494211969
4573622095111930
466060219669928
477158619789928
4837577998410910
4967542699112841
50745414100100838

Friday, April 11, 2014

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/12


                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersDbacksOccurrencesRankDodgersDbacksOccurrences
1343461751176575
2233283852846564
3452906453106549
4432393454386505
5322346255826403
6122240256856367
7562147357286237
8541966258486122
9241867159055918
10421854460865846
11531750561505770
12351713062585766
13211651863875412
14131587164685264
15311517665815093
16521492566934814
17251470967184757
18651424768604755
19671395969394720
20641356770924573
21141355371064554
22411317172894546
23631306573944444
24461292274294406
25361268275494344
26621145676954013
27261144977593794
28151111178963765
29511075979703750
3074966980913554
3176962681073433
3273940382693393
33759392831033334
3437904784193329
35478932853103305
3601877586973216
37728652871023132
38618617881043130
39168595894103015
40578541902102984
4127849191792973
4278834692982922
4302807293802797
44037956941052707
45307658955102603
4620750796082592
47047063971012487
48406804981102327
49716804991132241
508367441009102235

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation Results 4/11




                Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores (1 million simualtions)
RankDodgersDbacksOccurrencesRankDodgersDbacksOccurrences
1343414251016435
2453047652206427
3232970853406408
4432395154586365
5562309755026263
6322240556176230
7542073457876201
8121884158036196
9421816659286157
10531786060685914
11241769361045724
12351743662505381
13671552963895214
14651541764105117
15521493365395008
16641447566934990
17251437167944943
18211432468054867
19311430969814744
20131356270494689
21461355871184648
22631342472604580
23361275073924564
24411244374294553
25141209875954438
26621151176594310
27261127477964086
28761043178064002
29511038879693831
30751028080973738
31741019781913505
3215998682703465
33739701833103463
3447967084983426
35789416851033394
36579386861043381
37379363874103320
3872879888793310
3927848389193244
40618465901023212
41168013912103197
42837104925102967
43847061931052948
4448695694072944
45856898959102710
4638683296802647
47306740971062608
48866540986102398
49826523991012371
507165181003112362

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Series Preview


The Dodgers and Diamondbacks face off in a three game series in the desert this weekend, their first meeting since the ridiculous two games played weeks ago in Australia.  While the Dodgers currently fair better than the Diamondbacks in the standings both teams have had their fair share of troubles since returning from down under.  The Diamondbacks have been getting terrible pitching, while the Dodgers have been getting pitchers injured.  Expect a lot of runs to be scored in this series and the Diamondbacks play in a hitters park.

Here is a quick break down of the pitching matchups.

DayDodgers SPDbacks SPSkinny on Dbacks Starter
FridayHyun-Jin RyuBrandon McCarthyDoesn't miss too many bats, trying to re-invent himself as ground ball pitcher but more of a HR pitcher so far.
SaturdayZack GreinkeWade MileyHas been solid so far and also tends to induce ground balls.
SundayDan HarenTrevor CahillPretty extreme GB pitcher has been awful so far, fighting to keep rotation spot.

Bullpen
So, their starting pitching kind of sucks but how about their bullpen?  We should be seeing quite a bit of their bullpen so is it any good?  Well yeah, it is pretty good - at least on paper.  None of their relief pitchers are as good as Kenley Jansen but Addison Reed is a solid closer (don't get fooled by his girl name) and J.J. Putz is a very solid setup man.  Oliver Perez and Joe Thatcher are the lefty specialists who will be called on to deliver against the likes of Crawford, Gonzalez, Gordon and Ethier.  And watch out for Brad Ziegler the submarining right hander that is a double play inducing wizard.  You don't want one of our slow runners up with a man on first base and less than two outs facing this guy.  If you see Ryan Rowland-Smith (the guy too cool to drop his maiden name) or Josh Collmenter in the game you know things have probably gone well for the boys in blue.

What about Defense?
On the defensive side of things the Diamondbacks are pretty solid.  Some metrics may think the Trumbo is a liability in LF but the eye balls see him close to average out there.  On the plus side the Diamondbacks defense is lead by Gerardo Parra who is close to a +10 run right fielder as his throwing accuracy is truly amazing and he knows when and how to hit his cutoff man unlike the Dodgers cannon arm that plays RF when his thumb is healthy.  Next best is first baseman Paul Goldschmidt who truly is an amazing all around player.  The guy belts HRs, steals bases at a great clip for someone who plays his position and he is around a +7 fielder.  Other above average fielders on the team are catcher Miguel Montero and second baseman Aaron Hill.

Offense
Of course the Diamondbacks can hit well, especially playing in their hitter friendly park.  They have the components to mash LH pitchers pretty well in Paul Goldschmidt and the red hot Mark Trumbo.  Gerardo Parra and A.J. Pollock take turns at the top or bottom of the lineup depending on the pitching matchup and provide good speed and will provide a challenge to FedEx/Butera behind the plate.  Eric Chavez is their masher off the bench to mainly pinch hit against RH pitchers and Tony Campana is an excellent late inning pinch running threat.

Here is the typical lineup that the Diamondbacks use against both RH/LH pitchers.

vs RHPvs LHP
1RF-Gerardo ParraCF-A.J. Pollock
22B-Aaron Hill2B-Aaron Hill
31B-Paul Goldschmidt1B-Paul Goldschmidt
43B-Martin Prado3B-Martin Prado
5C-Miguel MonteroC-Miguel Montero
6LF-Mark TrumboLF-Mark Trumbo
7SS-Chris OwingsSS-Chris Owings
8CF-A.J. PollockRF-Gerardo Parra
9P-Pitchers SpotP-Pitchers Spot


Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/17


RankDodgersDbacksOccurences
13430054
22327131
34526857
44321402
55620668
63219537
75418841
81217917
95316711
104216662
112416447
123515302
136514517
146714384
155214090
166414056
171313712
182513491
196313429
202112870
213112676
224612532
231411997
243611942
254111522
266210999
277410560
287510392
292610201
307610089
31739728
32159524
33789442
34519435
35478948
36578636
37378557
38728485
39618068
40277504
41857456
42847430
43167332
44037280
45837131
46026782
47016734
48866673
49486551
50046530

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation Results 9/17



Sunday, September 15, 2013

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/16


RankDodgersDbacksOccurences
13434548
22332749
34528844
44323591
53222969
61222722
75621137
85419385
94218953
102418284
115317730
122116186
133516183
141315772
153115741
165215517
172514373
186413782
194113779
201413737
216513733
226713547
236313507
244612176
253611837
266211355
271511090
282610871
295110838
307410098
31019930
32759397
33739266
34039143
35028940
36768934
37378592
38618396
39728382
40478372
41788084
42308072
43167980
44047957
45207904
46577843
47277811
48406796
49106782
50836668

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation Results 9/16



Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 9/11


RankDbacksDodgersOccurences RankDbacksDodgersOccurences
11255635 51744984
22352368 52474821
33437529 53184266
40137486 54284093
52135655 55754015
63232721 56823909
71331762 57703821
80228109 58813750
93126601 59573662
102425030 60833491
110323687 61383447
121423535 62763243
134323120 63083241
141022876 64842811
154221895 65482724
164521886 66802619
172020214 67192574
184118170 68292526
192517119 69922474
200416635 70852453
213016274 71912337
221515680 72782283
233515518 73932254
245214408 74392213
255314196 75582200
265413428 76092036
275112547 77861847
280512279 78941803
294012035 79901758
305611259 80681738
311610453 81491597
322610256 821011595
33369730 831021551
34629279 841101507
35638862 852101503
36618360 86871457
37068194 87951360
38508120 881031343
39468115 893101246
40647890 90591222
41656796 910101162
42176749 921041120
43276689 93961092
44605888 941001067
45725824 954101029
46375646 9689957
47715630 97112921
48735379 9869907
49675305 99111886
50075187 100211876

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/11



Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Score 9/10


RankDbacksDodgersOccurences
1234350
2343684
3123581
4452765
5322702
6132424
7432385
8212336
9242288
10422012
11311964
12141959
13011811
14351756
15541742
16251712
17561645
18531596
19031570
20411562
21521557
22021426
23151386
24361265
25041230
26631196
27201193
28511167
29261156
30641152
31101120
32651112
33301111
34621092
35461068
3616991
3767960
3861905
3940896
4005881
4173866
4272825
4374806
4427746
4537743
4647736
4717723
4875720
4950699
5071667

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/10



Sunday, September 08, 2013

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores


RankDbacksDodgersOccurences
1235084
2124358
3344154
4133058
5322987
6242737
7452728
8212599
9142499
10432474
11012222
12032071
13252029
14022024
15422008
16311980
17351873
18151777
19541600
20041583
21561569
22531483
23261422
24411402
25161342
26521340
27101323
28361309
29051266
30201237
31461120
32301053
33511039
3463968
3564945
3606935
3727924
3817896
3965888
4062859
4137828
4240785
4367738
4447692
4561664
4607644
4773631
4874628
4972596
5028568

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/9



Tuesday, July 02, 2013

July 3rd, National League West Vegas Odds


Las Vegas odds for each National League West team for games played on Wednesday, July 3rd.  According to the odds, the Dodgers have a good chance to gain ground on the other National League West teams.

AwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFavoriteWin ExpectancyOver/Under
PadresRed SoxEdinson VolquezJon LesterRed Sox64.1%9.8
GiantsRedsBarry ZitoTony CingraniReds63.6%8.9
DbacksMetsRandall DelgadoMatt HarveyMets64.3%6.7
DodgersRockiesZack GreinkeTyler ChatwoodDodgers52.5%9.2