Giants vs Dodgers - Thursday's Simulation Results

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
Giants	Dodgers	Ryan Vogelsong	Josh Beckett	Dodgers	3.28815	4.06382	61.104	7.35197

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	4723		51	7	4	618
2	3	4	4028		52	5	7	590
3	1	2	3963		53	3	8	576
4	3	2	2855		54	7	5	560
5	1	3	2775		55	5	0	550
6	2	4	2727		56	7	1	479
7	4	5	2519		57	7	6	471
8	2	1	2466		58	4	8	455
9	4	3	2432		59	2	9	427
10	1	4	2350		60	0	8	416
11	2	5	2069		61	8	2	414
12	4	2	2050		62	8	4	409
13	0	1	2017		63	6	0	404
14	3	1	1952		64	1	9	390
15	0	2	1936		65	7	8	390
16	0	3	1907		66	3	9	379
17	3	5	1838		67	5	8	378
18	1	5	1732		68	8	3	374
19	5	4	1670		69	8	5	332
20	0	4	1588		70	8	1	308
21	5	3	1556		71	0	9	307
22	5	6	1547		72	4	9	304
23	4	1	1450		73	8	6	292
24	5	2	1415		74	6	8	288
25	3	6	1356		75	2	10	284
26	2	6	1351		76	1	10	267
27	1	6	1287		77	9	4	257
28	1	0	1239		78	7	0	248
29	0	5	1217		79	9	3	247
30	2	0	1171		80	9	2	236
31	4	6	1142		81	3	10	234
32	6	3	1080		82	5	9	230
33	6	5	1073		83	8	7	219
34	5	1	1040		84	9	1	197
35	2	7	1012		85	4	10	191
36	6	4	1012		86	2	11	189
37	3	0	982		87	0	10	185
38	0	6	937		88	1	11	185
39	6	2	926		89	8	9	184
40	1	7	924		90	9	5	183
41	3	7	860		91	6	9	177
42	6	7	849		92	9	6	161
43	4	7	775		93	10	3	161
44	4	0	762		94	3	11	157
45	6	1	712		95	9	7	151
46	7	3	704		96	10	2	144
47	1	8	662		97	5	10	140
48	7	2	660		98	10	4	138
49	0	7	659		99	8	0	134
50	2	8	647		100	6	10	128

Disclaimer: Game simulated 100K times.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Sunday's Simulation Results

                                                 *** Simulation Results ***

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Runs/Game	Runs/Game	Win %	Total R/G
Dbacks	Dodgers	Josh Collmenter	Josh Beckett	Dodgers	3.43661	3.90545	58.148	7.34206

                                  Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	4641		51	7	5	620
2	3	4	3999		52	7	6	601
3	1	2	3870		53	0	7	570
4	3	2	2954		54	7	1	552
5	1	3	2750		55	2	8	522
6	4	5	2746		56	1	8	506
7	2	4	2744		57	8	3	506
8	4	3	2582		58	3	8	488
9	2	1	2510		59	6	0	484
10	1	4	2248		60	8	4	438
11	4	2	2083		61	8	2	434
12	2	5	2027		62	5	8	396
13	3	5	2008		63	4	8	395
14	3	1	1982		64	8	5	380
15	0	1	1868		65	8	1	370
16	0	2	1844		66	0	8	369
17	0	3	1822		67	7	8	362
18	5	4	1783		68	2	9	356
19	5	3	1740		69	7	0	343
20	5	6	1701		70	1	9	329
21	1	5	1637		71	8	6	323
22	4	1	1631		72	3	9	316
23	5	2	1543		73	9	3	303
24	0	4	1483		74	6	8	292
25	3	6	1320		75	8	7	290
26	2	6	1280		76	4	9	277
27	1	0	1206		77	2	10	256
28	2	0	1180		78	9	4	256
29	1	6	1148		79	9	2	246
30	5	1	1135		80	9	1	231
31	0	5	1125		81	0	9	224
32	4	6	1101		82	9	5	222
33	6	3	1087		83	5	9	221
34	6	4	1087		84	1	10	214
35	6	5	1067		85	8	0	208
36	6	2	1049		86	3	10	181
37	3	0	1047		87	9	6	180
38	2	7	894		88	10	3	164
39	6	1	849		89	10	2	163
40	0	6	837		90	8	9	159
41	1	7	826		91	10	4	150
42	3	7	812		92	4	10	147
43	6	7	800		93	6	9	147
44	4	0	783		94	10	5	141
45	4	7	737		95	0	10	137
46	7	3	712		96	7	9	134
47	7	2	707		97	10	1	134
48	7	4	695		98	9	7	131
49	5	0	630		99	9	8	127
50	5	7	620		100	2	11	125

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/15

                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences
1	2	3	4983		51	0	7	530
2	1	2	4825		52	7	5	502
3	3	4	3594		53	7	4	499
4	2	1	3495		54	2	8	495
5	3	2	3477		55	1	8	448
6	1	3	3078		56	5	7	444
7	0	1	2873		57	8	2	435
8	2	4	2574		58	3	8	398
9	4	3	2572		59	7	6	389
10	3	1	2564		60	8	3	369
11	0	2	2414		61	7	0	363
12	4	2	2373		62	0	8	353
13	1	4	2338		63	4	8	353
14	4	5	2156		64	8	1	343
15	1	0	2155		65	8	4	302
16	0	3	2048		66	2	9	298
17	2	0	1988		67	1	9	268
18	2	5	1849		68	7	8	265
19	4	1	1835		69	8	0	250
20	1	5	1687		70	3	9	242
21	3	5	1618		71	8	5	240
22	3	0	1584		72	5	8	237
23	0	4	1577		73	0	9	234
24	5	2	1554		74	9	1	231
25	5	3	1489		75	9	2	220
26	5	4	1478		76	9	3	219
27	0	5	1215		77	8	6	215
28	5	6	1200		78	6	8	203
29	5	1	1194		79	9	4	198
30	2	6	1178		80	4	9	190
31	1	6	1154		81	8	7	180
32	4	0	1130		82	1	10	167
33	3	6	1107		83	9	5	164
34	6	3	1027		84	2	10	157
35	6	2	949		85	10	3	154
36	6	4	886		86	3	10	152
37	4	6	831		87	9	0	148
38	6	1	801		88	10	1	147
39	6	5	792		89	5	9	140
40	0	6	781		90	10	2	133
41	5	0	776		91	4	10	132
42	2	7	685		92	2	11	131
43	1	7	683		93	0	10	127
44	7	2	661		94	9	6	120
45	3	7	643		95	10	4	117
46	6	0	597		96	8	9	104
47	4	7	596		97	1	11	99
48	7	3	586		98	9	7	95
49	6	7	571		99	6	9	92
50	7	1	540		100	3	11	86

Disclaimer: 100K simulations.

Tigers vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/9

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Tigers	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Tigers	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	47257		51	1	7	5750
2	1	2	42579		52	0	6	5728
3	3	4	38070		53	8	2	5455
4	3	2	33824		54	8	3	5137
5	2	1	30881		55	7	6	5116
6	4	3	26697		56	5	7	5089
7	1	3	25711		57	7	0	5039
8	3	1	25550		58	8	1	4961
9	4	5	25331		59	8	4	4356
10	4	2	23971		60	2	8	4175
11	2	4	23770		61	3	8	3891
12	0	1	22718		62	0	7	3789
13	4	1	19590		63	1	8	3780
14	1	4	19130		64	8	5	3532
15	0	2	18203		65	7	8	3453
16	5	3	17740		66	9	2	3415
17	5	4	17599		67	4	8	3377
18	5	2	17236		68	8	0	3217
19	2	0	16920		69	9	3	3189
20	1	0	16441		70	9	1	3016
21	2	5	16405		71	5	8	2963
22	3	5	16317		72	8	6	2891
23	3	0	15502		73	9	4	2672
24	0	3	15314		74	2	9	2568
25	5	1	14729		75	8	7	2426
26	5	6	14623		76	0	8	2418
27	1	5	13349		77	6	8	2406
28	4	0	12850		78	1	9	2399
29	6	2	12128		79	3	9	2312
30	6	3	11869		80	9	5	2094
31	0	4	11737		81	9	0	2076
32	6	1	10692		82	4	9	2053
33	6	4	10617		83	10	2	1993
34	2	6	10561		84	10	3	1975
35	3	6	10516		85	10	1	1892
36	5	0	9848		86	10	4	1618
37	4	6	9717		87	2	10	1601
38	6	5	9638		88	3	10	1570
39	1	6	8934		89	5	9	1539
40	0	5	8367		90	9	6	1538
41	7	2	8319		91	8	9	1480
42	7	3	7775		92	0	9	1424
43	6	7	7415		93	1	10	1391
44	7	1	7362		94	6	9	1306
45	6	0	7203		95	10	0	1253
46	7	4	6756		96	9	7	1249
47	2	7	6677		97	10	5	1240
48	3	7	6353		98	11	2	1193
49	4	7	5948		99	4	10	1186
50	7	5	5861		100	11	3	1058

Note: One million games simulated.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - May 7th Simulation Results

Brewers vs Dodgers - April 25th Simulation Results

Dodgers vs Orioles - April 20th Simulation Results

Dodgers vs Padres - April 9th Simulation Results

Here are the simulation results for the April 9th game between the Dodgers and the Padres

Dodgers vs Padres
Josh Beckett vs Clayton Richards

Record: 4-2 (0.667)
RS: 17
RA: 10
Pythag Win%: 0.725
Pythag Pace: 117.5 - 44.5
Pythag Record: 4.35 - 1.65
Record As Favorites: 4-2
Record As Underdogs: 0-0

Simulation Results Notes:
Dodgers win expectancy is 49.52%
Dodgers on average score 3.315 runs
Padres on average score 3.104 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 6.419

Starting Pitching Lines:
Josh Beckett - 6.4ip, 6.4so, 2.1bb, 5.4hits, 0.58hrs, 100pitches, 3.395fip
Clayton Richard - 6.4ip, 4.7so, 1.8bb, 6.3hits, 0.58hrs, 98pitches, 3.718fip

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Dodgers win expectancy: 57.89%
Over/Under: 6.5 -112o +102u

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Padres 2-1
2. Padres 3-2
3. Dodgers 2-1
4. Padres 4-3
5. Dodgers 3-2
6. Padres 1-0
7. Dodgers 3-1
8. Padres 3-1
9. Dodgers 4-3
10. Dodgers 4-2
11. Dodgers 1-0
12. Padres 4-2
13. Padres 2-0
14. Padres 5-4
15. Dodgers 2-0
16. Dodgers 4-1
17. Padres 4-1
18. Dodgers 3-0
19. Padres 3-0
20. Dodgers 5-2
.
.
99. Dodgers 11-4

Dodgers Box Score (Click Image To Enlarge)

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results April 3

Here are the simulation results for the April 2nd game between the Giants and the Dodgers.

Giants vs Dodgers
Tim Lincecum vs Josh Beckett

Record: 1-1 (0.500)
RS: 4
RA: 3
Pythag Record: 1.28 - 0.72 (0.640)
Record As Favorites: 1-1
Record As Underdogs: 0-0

Simulation Results Notes:
Dodgers win expectancy is 49.44%
Giants on average score 3.572 runs
Dodgers on average score 3.371 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 6.943

Starting Pitching Lines:
Tim Lincecum - 6.0ip, 6.9so, 2.5bb, 5.5hits, 0.55hrs, 99pitches, 3.351fip
Josh Beckett - 6.2ip, 6.2so, 2.0bb, 6.1hits, 0.59hrs, 99pitches, 3.390fip

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Dodgers win expectancy: 54.65%
Over/Under: 6.5 -110o +100u

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Dodgers 3-2
2. Dodgers 2-1
3. Dodgers 4-3
4. Giants 3-2
5. Giants 2-1
6. Giants 3-1
7. Giants 4-3
8. Giants 4-2
9. Dodgers 1-0
10. Dodgers 3-1
11. Dodgers 5-4
12. Dodgers 4-2
13. Giants 2-0
14. Giants 4-1
15. Giants 1-0
16. Dodgers 2-0
17. Dodgers 4-1
18. Giants 5-4
19. Giants 5-3
20. Giants 3-0
.
.
100. Dodgers 9-7

Who Is Similar To Josh Beckett?

Well, next up on the Dodgers starting pitcher depth chart is Josh Beckett who came over to the Dodgers in their much belliehood trade with the Red Sox last year.  Below, are the Top 50 most similar pitchers "peripheral-wise", based on K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB over the past two seasons.

So are you impressed that his number one comparable pitcher is Jered Weaver who has gone 38-13 for the Angels over the past two seasons?  The big difference being that Weaver has outpitched his FIP/xFIP by quite a bit while Beckett has not.  Could be some luck involved there for Weaver or perhaps pitching in a ballpark that turns fly balls in to outs.  The two pitchers are at different points on the aging curve, but over the past two years their peripherals have been highly comparable.

2012 Top 50 Similar Starting Pitchers

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
NA	Josh Beckett	7.46	2.62	1.08
1	Jered Weaver	7.13	2.15	0.76
2	Ryan Vogelsong	7.33	3.02	1.21
3	Ian Kennedy	8.06	2.32	0.92
4	Matt Cain	7.68	2.27	0.96
5	Vance Worley	7.51	3.10	1.35
6	Jordan Zimmermann	7.01	1.90	1.16
7	R.A. Dickey	7.82	2.18	1.43
8	Ervin Santana	6.85	2.98	1.15
9	Mat Latos	8.18	2.80	1.18
10	Daniel Hudson	6.99	2.12	1.06
11	Wandy Rodriguez	6.67	2.73	1.44
12	Shaun Marcum	7.51	2.77	0.86
13	Alexi Ogando	6.66	2.25	0.95
14	Freddy Garcia	6.75	2.95	1.02
15	Anibal Sanchez	8.29	2.49	1.37
16	Philip Humber	6.85	3.02	1.07
17	Javier Vazquez	7.59	2.34	0.74
18	Edwin Jackson	7.50	2.78	1.35
19	Derek Holland	7.52	2.80	1.18
20	Ted Lilly	6.92	2.73	0.82
21	Jeff Niemann	7.33	2.59	1.44
22	Mike Minor	7.53	2.92	0.86
23	John Danks	6.43	2.93	1.17
24	Gavin Floyd	7.45	2.86	1.29
25	Homer Bailey	7.26	2.25	1.20
26	Brett Myers	6.60	2.40	1.42
27	Chris Capuano	7.65	2.48	1.04
28	Luke Hochevar	6.54	2.91	1.35
29	Brett Cecil	6.84	3.21	0.85
30	Ryan Dempster	8.18	3.10	1.23
31	Jake Peavy	7.84	2.01	0.86
32	Carlos Villanueva	7.37	2.29	0.75
33	Brian Duensing	6.13	2.48	1.21
34	Phil Hughes	7.39	2.30	0.69
35	Wei-Yin Chen	7.21	2.67	0.88
36	Jarrod Parker	6.87	3.11	1.44
37	Josh Johnson	7.87	3.05	1.52
38	Clayton Kershaw	9.26	2.34	1.27
39	Johnny Cueto	6.73	2.24	1.70
40	Roy Halladay	8.03	1.73	1.51
41	Cliff Lee	8.99	1.37	1.29
42	Justin Verlander	9.01	2.18	1.09
43	Cole Hamels	8.71	2.06	1.36
44	James Shields	8.55	2.32	1.59
45	Doug Fister	6.96	1.84	1.70
46	C.J. Wilson	7.95	3.63	1.63
47	Jeremy Hellickson	6.02	3.17	0.97
48	Jair Jurrjens	4.75	2.89	1.07
49	CC Sabathia	8.81	2.12	1.56
50	Hiroki Kuroda	6.97	2.13	1.56

September 7th - Dodgers vs Giants Simulation Results

                   |    Wins     Losses           RS         RA
  Dodgers  +------------------------------------------------------------------
                   |   44864    55136        385623    410117

  Vegas Results:
      Money Line:  Giants -114/+109  (Giants have a 52.72% win expectancy)
      Run Totals:    Over 7 -105, Under 7 -105

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Mark Ellis	4.451	1.154	0.795	0.264	0.022	0.073	0.291	0.254	0.313	1.081	0.303
Shane Victorino	4.272	1.170	0.784	0.232	0.072	0.083	0.345	0.329	0.359	0.820	0.329
Adrian Gonzalez	4.238	1.291	0.818	0.312	0.006	0.155	0.616	0.198	0.355	0.924	0.368
Matt Kemp	4.138	1.170	0.753	0.244	0.031	0.142	0.551	0.219	0.330	1.278	0.345
Hanley Ramirez	4.045	1.119	0.710	0.244	0.027	0.138	0.558	0.206	0.320	1.131	0.340
Andre Ethier	3.890	1.067	0.685	0.253	0.009	0.121	0.519	0.148	0.388	1.064	0.341
Luis Cruz	3.941	1.026	0.685	0.263	0.007	0.071	0.406	0.142	0.193	0.927	0.298
A.J. Ellis	3.517	0.899	0.634	0.184	0.008	0.072	0.364	0.136	0.521	1.032	0.329
Pitchers Spot	3.808	0.414	0.331	0.067	0.003	0.012	0.137	0.077	0.142	2.171	0.130
Dodgers
Angel Pagan	4.310	1.323	0.868	0.311	0.088	0.057	0.346	0.399	0.339	0.643	0.357
Marco Scutaro	4.250	1.308	0.982	0.251	0.023	0.052	0.423	0.286	0.242	0.412	0.336
Pablo Sandoval	4.150	1.303	0.835	0.341	0.034	0.093	0.516	0.245	0.303	0.623	0.366
Buster Posey	3.944	1.261	0.866	0.281	0.004	0.110	0.558	0.220	0.394	0.689	0.376
Hunter Pence	3.954	1.146	0.794	0.220	0.020	0.112	0.530	0.223	0.287	0.862	0.341
Brandon Belt	3.728	1.076	0.683	0.271	0.034	0.088	0.506	0.204	0.422	0.721	0.356
Gregor Blanco	3.631	1.038	0.727	0.183	0.040	0.088	0.474	0.208	0.412	0.770	0.349
Brandon Crawford	3.647	0.984	0.648	0.241	0.046	0.050	0.443	0.190	0.285	0.608	0.319
Pitchers Spot	3.676	0.556	0.450	0.092	0.005	0.010	0.208	0.120	0.136	1.440	0.169

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Josh Beckett	6.070	4.302	1.783	7.211	0.488	97.389	3.710
Brandon League	0.432	0.373	0.134	0.440	0.015	6.832	2.842
Ronald Belisario	0.400	0.375	0.138	0.413	0.020	6.471	2.999
Randy Choate	0.598	0.630	0.215	0.584	0.038	9.721	2.988
Javy Guerra	0.274	0.236	0.124	0.290	0.013	4.571	3.475
Matt Guerrier	0.218	0.173	0.086	0.247	0.019	3.605	3.958
Shawn Tolleson	0.490	0.469	0.226	0.530	0.052	8.319	4.059
Jamey Wright	0.253	0.210	0.114	0.282	0.014	4.251	3.608
Dodgers
Tim Lincecum	6.167	7.066	1.929	6.189	0.599	100.277	3.109
Sergio Romo	0.444	0.632	0.079	0.367	0.034	6.857	1.898
Javier Lopez	0.394	0.377	0.131	0.410	0.019	6.366	2.894
Santiago Casilla	0.624	0.675	0.203	0.650	0.066	10.196	3.386
Jeremy Affeldt	0.269	0.265	0.105	0.274	0.014	4.422	3.070
Jose Mijares	0.159	0.162	0.065	0.165	0.013	2.646	3.419
Guillermo Mota	0.713	0.737	0.276	0.761	0.079	11.876	3.737
George Kontos	0.479	0.514	0.131	0.493	0.044	7.675	3.067

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard