Brewers vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/15

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Fave Win%	Total RS
Brewers	Dodgers	Jimmy Nelson	Zach Greinke	Dodgers	2.998	3.533	59.25%	6.531

                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Brewers	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Brewers	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	5314		51	4	7	510
2	1	2	5247		52	6	0	496
3	3	4	3925		53	1	8	491
4	2	1	3377		54	7	1	486
5	3	2	3332		55	7	5	436
6	1	3	3266		56	0	8	428
7	0	1	3186		57	5	7	421
8	2	4	2690		58	8	2	386
9	0	2	2506		59	3	8	383
10	1	4	2462		60	8	3	367
11	4	3	2420		61	7	6	362
12	0	3	2381		62	2	9	356
13	4	5	2346		63	1	9	350
14	3	1	2329		64	7	0	322
15	4	2	2074		65	8	1	311
16	1	0	1918		66	8	4	303
17	2	5	1893		67	0	9	275
18	0	4	1802		68	3	9	274
19	4	1	1755		69	4	8	248
20	2	0	1740		70	8	5	248
21	3	5	1715		71	5	8	242
22	1	5	1650		72	7	8	233
23	5	3	1496		73	9	2	224
24	5	4	1495		74	8	0	214
25	3	0	1439		75	1	10	210
26	5	2	1379		76	2	10	209
27	0	5	1203		77	4	9	208
28	5	1	1176		78	9	1	207
29	2	6	1163		79	9	3	185
30	1	6	1131		80	3	10	183
31	5	6	1125		81	0	10	176
32	3	6	1071		82	8	6	176
33	4	0	984		83	6	8	162
34	4	6	909		84	9	4	159
35	6	3	903		85	8	7	153
36	6	2	890		86	4	10	137
37	0	6	814		87	9	5	136
38	6	4	814		88	2	11	135
39	2	7	792		89	1	11	131
40	6	1	769		90	5	9	130
41	1	7	767		91	9	0	126
42	6	5	743		92	10	2	120
43	5	0	711		93	10	3	117
44	0	7	593		94	3	11	116
45	3	7	592		95	10	1	112
46	7	2	587		96	10	4	106
47	7	3	550		97	6	9	103
48	6	7	541		98	9	6	102
49	2	8	524		99	8	9	94
50	7	4	518		100	2	12	88

.
Miscellaneous Notes:

1) The best defensive players on the Brewers are CF-Carlos Gomez, SS-Jean Segura and C-Jonathon Lucroy

2) Brewers 2B-Scooter Gennett can not hit left-handed pitching to save his life.  Rickie Weeks will hit for him if a LHP comes in to face him.

3) The Brewers have three former starting pitchers in their bullpen... Zach Duke (169 GS), Tom Gorzelanny (121 GS) and Marco Estrada (71 GS).

4) The Brewers have three holes in their bullpen... Marco Estrada, Jeremy Jeffress and Brandon Kintzler.

5) Brewers hitters do not draw very many walks... Lucroy and Reynolds are the only two who draw an average amount of walks.

6) Brewers starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson is probably better than projection systems currently give him credit for.

Best Lineup - Milwaukee Brewers

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Milwaukee Brewers.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants

See the results after the jump

Dodgers vs Brewers - Simulation Results May 22nd

Dodgers vs Brewers - May 21st Simulation Results

Dodgers vs Brewers Simulation Results - May 20th

Brewers vs Dodgers - April 28th Simulation Results

Brewers vs Dodgers - April 27th Simulation Results

Brewers vs Dodgers - April 25th Simulation Results

Brewers vs Dodgers - May 31st Simulation Results

Here is a peak into some of the output capabilities of my simulator. This is the box score output from today's (5/31) Brewers vs Dodgers game. This simulation was done a couple of hours before the lineups were known, but it shouldn't make too big of a difference.

Pitching

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Zach Greinke	6.599	6.958	1.687	6.336	0.271	103.43	2.393
John Axford	0.487	0.625	0.156	0.395	0.014	7.741	1.965
Francisco Rodriguez	0.423	0.419	0.152	0.414	0.023	6.837	3.015
Jose Veras	0.567	0.575	0.243	0.552	0.029	9.379	3.127
Kameron Loe	0.244	0.190	0.072	0.260	0.014	3.845	3.26
Manny Parra	0.176	0.177	0.065	0.170	0.009	2.852	2.961
Tim Dillard	0.301	0.244	0.106	0.323	0.020	4.852	3.488
Wily Peralta	0.097	0.072	0.041	0.108	0.007	1.602	3.970
Chad Billingsley	6.543	5.930	1.444	6.670	0.476	101.041	2.995
Kenley Jansen	0.446	0.800	0.115	0.263	0.027	7.002	1.183
Josh Lindblom	0.444	0.506	0.117	0.405	0.040	6.970	2.871
Javy Guerra	0.617	0.620	0.214	0.581	0.029	9.868	2.834
Scott Elbert	0.261	0.301	0.073	0.235	0.022	4.117	2.835
Ronald Belisario	0.136	0.131	0.052	0.131	0.009	2.198	3.252
Todd Coffey	0.582	0.573	0.202	0.565	0.041	9.346	3.182
Jamey Wright	0.305	0.335	0.119	0.286	0.021	4.991	3.078

Hitting

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Corey Hart	4.407	1.177	0.740	0.288	0.010	0.139	0.385	0.286	1.145	0.323
Norichika Aoki	4.254	1.149	0.796	0.24	0.021	0.092	0.351	0.329	0.883	0.319
Ryan Braun	4.220	1.268	0.860	0.242	0.014	0.152	0.536	0.275	0.948	0.354
Aramis Ramirez	4.158	1.118	0.732	0.290	0.011	0.085	0.453	0.239	0.785	0.312
George Kottaras	3.987	0.977	0.723	0.222	0.005	0.027	0.303	0.342	0.838	0.285
Ricky Weeks	3.892	0.954	0.637	0.229	0.015	0.073	0.380	0.290	1.131	0.295
Cody Ransom	3.901	0.925	0.658	0.213	0.015	0.038	0.328	0.174	0.968	0.265
Nyjer Morgan	3.704	1.091	0.789	0.235	0.019	0.048	0.364	0.279	0.711	0.333
Pitchers Spot	3.747	0.475	0.389	0.076	0.002	0.009	0.157	0.122	1.786	0.143
Tony Gwynn	4.248	1.118	0.764	0.257	0.066	0.031	0.271	0.281	0.901	0.303
Bobby Abreu	3.939	1.054	0.710	0.259	0.015	0.070	0.345	0.454	1.048	0.329
Andre Ethier	3.957	1.091	0.710	0.276	0.012	0.094	0.424	0.389	1.03	0.337
Jerry Hairston Jr.	3.998	0.981	0.691	0.235	0.011	0.044	0.342	0.212	0.936	0.311
James Loney	3.785	1.067	0.711	0.285	0.009	0.063	0.406	0.356	0.731	0.334
A.J. Ellis	3.721	0.922	0.693	0.192	0.009	0.028	0.318	0.271	0.983	0.282
Elian Herrera	3.676	0.967	0.664	0.247	0.029	0.027	0.306	0.216	0.870	0.297
Dee Gordon	3.575	0.968	0.687	0.229	0.029	0.023	0.352	0.217	0.750	0.303
Pitchers Spot	3.556	0.389	0.316	0.063	0.003	0.007	0.161	0.127	2.009	0.128

May 31st Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

			Vegas	Win Probability
Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas	Simulator	Units Bet
DET	BOS	Max Scherzer vs Josh Beckett	BOS	57.17%	52.62%	---
MIL	LAN	Zach Greinke vs Chad Billingsley	MIL	53.16%	51.06%	---
HOU	COL	Bud Norris vs Jeremy Guthrie	COL	52.94%	57.06%	---

Wednesday's Results: -0.6 units
Current ROI: 5.47%

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MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

May 30th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

			Vegas	Win Probability
Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas	Simulator	Units Bet
CHA	TB	Jose Quintana vs Alex Cobb	TB	58.07%	55.66%	CHA, 0.3
DET	BOS	Drew Smyly vs Jon Lester	BOS	57.89%	52.94%	DET, 0.8
KC	CLE	Bruce Chen vs Jeanmar Gomez	CLE	54.02%	49.63%	KC, 0.7
MIL	LAN	Yovanni Gallardo vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	59.76%	58.41%	---
NYA	LAA	Ivan Nova vs Ervin Santana	LAA	52.04%	49.01%	NYA, 0.5
SEA	TEX	Blake Beavan vs Derek Holland	TEX	69.70%	73.59%	TEX, 1.4
STL	ATL	Kyle Lohse vs Tim Hudson	ATL	52.94%	56.42%	ATL, 0.6
WAS	FLA	ChienMing Wang vs Josh Johnson	FLA	61.83%	61.59%	---
OAK	MIN	Tyson Ross vs Francisco Liriano	MIN	52.49%	57.24%	MIN, 0.9
SD	CHN	Anthony Bass vs Ryan Dempster	CHN	55.85%	56.33%	---
CIN	PIT	Johnny Cueto vs A.J. Burnett	CIN	54.85%	51.69%	PIT, 0.5
BAL	TOR	Jason Hammel vs Brandon Morrow	TOR	56.62%	50.00%	BAL, 0.9
PHI	NYN	Cliff Lee vs Dillon Gee	PHI	56.62%	54.76%	NYN, 0.3
HOU	COL	Lucas Harrell vs Chris Friedrich	COL	59.10%	62.58%	COL, 0.7
ARI	SF	Ian Kennedy vs Tim Lincecum	SF	54.65%	64.55%	SF, 1.4

Tuesday's Results: +5.6 units
Current ROI: 5.72%

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May 29th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Units
CHA	TB	Phil Humber vs James Shields	TB	60.55%	57.24%	1.0
DET	BOS	Justin Verlander vs Daniel Bard	DET	59.60%	56.25%	1.0
KC	CLE	Wil Smith vs Justin Masterson	CLE	59.60%	55.81%	1.1
MIL	LAN	Michael Fiers vs Nathan Eovaldi	LAN	52.94%	56.08%	1.1
NYA	LAA	Andy Pettitte vs Dan Haren	LAA	55.85%	53.84%	0.5
SEA	TEX	Jason Vargas vs Scott Feldman	TEX	64.85%	65.77%	0.3
STL	ATL	Jake Westbrook vs Randall Delgado	STL	51.10%	48.50%	0.8
SD	CHN	Eric Stults vs Jeff Samardzija	CHN	60.24%	59.77%	0.9
CIN	PIT	Homer Bailey vs Charlie Morton	CIN	53.60%	56.22%	---
BAL	TOR	Jake Arrieta vs Ricky Romero	TOR	57.36%	52.18%	1.7
PHI	NYN	Joe Blanton vs Jeremy Hefner	PHI	51.10%	50.28%	---
WAS	FLA	Edwin Jackson vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	57.36%	59.46%	0.8
OAK	MIN	Jarrod Parker vs Cole DeVries	OAK	50.74%	48.64%	0.3
ARI	SF	Joe Saunders vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	54.02%	60.64%	2.7

Current ROI: 4.65%

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April 19th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	CHA	Jason Hammel vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	56.43%	53.85%	TBD
OAK	LAA	Tom Milone vs C.J. Wilson	LAA	65.64%	69.68%	TBD
PHI	SD	Vance Worley vs Joe Wieland	PHI	53.81%	54.13%	TBD
CHN	FLA	Jeff Samardzija vs Ricky Nolasco	FLA	59.10%	65.47%	TBD
LAN	MIL	Aaron Harang vs Randy Wolf	MIL	55.65%	57.03%	TBD
CIN	STL	Bronson Arroyo vs Adam Wainwright	STL	60.08%	55.52%	TBD
HOU	WAS	Bud Norris vs Edwin Jackson	WAS	60.08%	62.10%	TBD
MIN	NYA	Anthony Swarzak vs Phil Hughes	NYA	67.21%	64.01%	TBD
TEX	DET	Yu Darvish vs Adam Wilk	TEX	52.27%	56.90%	TBD
TB	TOR	Jeremy Hellickson vs Henderson Alvarez	TOR	52.27%	55.03%	TBD
ATL	ARI	Mike Minor vs Josh Collmenter	ATL	52.27%	53.00%	TBD
CLE	SEA	Josh Tomlin vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	58.93%	56.10%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Dodgers vs Brewers - April 17th Simulation Box Score

Team	RS	RA	Sim Win %	Vegas Win %
Dodgers	3.191	3.665	41.636%	45.767%
Brewers	3.665	3.191	58.364%	54.233%

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Dee Gordon	4.406	1.072	0.780	0.215	0.035	0.042	0.184	0.164	1.084	0.268
Mark Ellis	4.253	1.049	0.719	0.225	0.013	0.093	0.346	0.181	1.033	0.283
Matt Kemp	4.073	1.015	0.554	0.169	0.024	0.269	0.575	0.316	1.662	0.341
Andre Ethier	3.923	1.025	0.614	0.247	0.006	0.159	0.466	0.397	1.103	0.339
Juan Rivera	3.939	0.948	0.620	0.186	0.008	0.134	0.406	0.250	1.046	0.296
James Loney	3.799	1.051	0.647	0.264	0.014	0.127	0.412	0.302	0.719	0.340
Juan Uribe	3.790	0.853	0.539	0.204	0.008	0.102	0.369	0.176	1.114	0.272
A.J. Ellis	3.636	0.841	0.581	0.178	0.008	0.074	0.301	0.221	1.062	0.274
Pitchers Spot	3.642	0.331	0.259	0.054	0.002	0.015	0.098	0.114	2.270	0.111
Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Ricky Weeks	4.078	1.104	0.690	0.267	0.028	0.120	0.371	0.463	0.979	0.344
Nyjer Morgan	4.065	1.201	0.820	0.256	0.079	0.047	0.359	0.368	0.667	0.346
Ryan Braun	3.937	1.230	0.768	0.261	0.034	0.167	0.632	0.415	0.727	0.389
Aramis Ramirez	3.894	1.118	0.734	0.233	0.010	0.141	0.579	0.354	0.585	0.352
Mat Gamel	3.785	0.999	0.676	0.223	0.016	0.084	0.424	0.365	0.760	0.322
Alex Gonzalez	3.836	0.917	0.603	0.218	0.012	0.083	0.402	0.196	0.876	0.282
Jonathan Lucroy	3.610	0.923	0.690	0.168	0.007	0.058	0.326	0.316	0.819	0.301
Carlos Gomez	3.552	0.877	0.573	0.208	0.038	0.057	0.333	0.253	0.775	0.296
Pitchers Spot	3.537	0.473	0.380	0.079	0.004	0.010	0.172	0.178	1.539	0.160

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Chad Billingsley	6.064	5.052	2.082	6.303	0.563	97.138	3.771
Javy Guerra	0.432	0.435	0.110	0.383	0.027	6.631	2.763
Kenley Jansen	0.408	0.644	0.123	0.275	0.024	6.467	1.704
Matt Guerrier	0.610	0.482	0.156	0.635	0.057	9.455	3.598
Scott Elbert	0.264	0.236	0.109	0.260	0.023	4.302	3.803
Mike MacDougal	0.206	0.164	0.078	0.209	0.016	3.308	3.721
Josh Lindblom	0.521	0.510	0.157	0.484	0.029	8.168	2.873
Jamey Wright	0.268	0.205	0.094	0.291	0.027	4.313	4.036
Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Yovanni Gallardo	6.542	7.951	1.364	5.779	0.787	101.045	2.958
John Axford	0.476	0.626	0.112	0.351	0.024	7.264	1.925
Francisco Rodriguez	0.414	0.504	0.110	0.337	0.026	6.429	2.387
Jose Veras	0.584	0.694	0.211	0.493	0.050	9.376	3.015
Kameron Loe	0.248	0.244	0.049	0.225	0.016	3.741	2.678
Manny Parra	0.127	0.128	0.051	0.121	0.017	2.070	4.127
Tim Dillard	0.585	0.560	0.131	0.559	0.057	8.972	3.232
Marco Estrada	0.346	0.385	0.093	0.319	0.038	5.443	3.219

Top 150 Most Likely Final Scores

1 MIL 3-2		51 MIL 8-2		101 MIL 9-6
2 MIL 2-1		52 MIL 7-5		102 MIL 9-7
3 MIL 4-3		53 MIL 8-1		103 LAN 10-5
4 LAN 3-2		54 MIL 7-0		104 MIL 11-0
5 LAN 2-1		55 LAN 7-5		105 MIL 11-4
6 MIL 3-1		56 LAN 6-0		106 LAN 10-0
7 MIL 4-2		57 MIL 8-3		107 LAN 11-4
8 MIL 1-0		58 LAN 7-6		108 LAN 9-8
9 MIL 5-4		59 LAN 8-2		109 MIL 12-3
10 LAN 4-3		60 MIL 8-4		110 LAN 10-6
11 LAN 3-1		61 LAN 8-3		111 MIL 12-2
12 MIL 4-1		62 MIL 8-0		112 MIL 12-1
13 MIL 2-0		63 LAN 8-4		113 MIL 10-6
14 LAN 4-2		64 MIL 9-2		114 LAN 10-7
15 MIL 3-0		65 LAN 8-1		115 MIL 11-5
16 MIL 5-2		66 MIL 8-5		116 LAN 11-5
17 MIL 5-3		67 MIL 9-1		117 LAN 11-1
18 LAN 4-1		68 LAN 7-0		118 LAN 11-2
19 LAN 1-0		69 MIL 8-7		119 MIL 10-9
20 LAN 5-4		70 MIL 9-3		120 LAN 11-3
21 LAN 2-0		71 LAN 8-5		121 MIL 12-4
22 MIL 5-1		72 LAN 9-3		122 MIL 10-7
23 LAN 5-3		73 LAN 9-2		123 LAN 12-3
24 MIL 6-5		74 MIL 8-6		124 MIL 13-2
25 LAN 5-2		75 MIL 9-4		125 MIL 11-6
26 MIL 4-0		76 LAN 8-6		126 MIL 13-3
27 LAN 3-0		77 MIL 9-0		127 LAN 12-2
28 MIL 6-3		78 MIL 10-1		128 MIL 12-0
29 MIL 6-2		79 LAN 9-1		129 MIL 12-5
30 LAN 5-1		80 MIL 10-2		130 MIL 10-8
31 MIL 6-1		81 LAN 9-4		131 LAN 10-9
32 MIL 5-0		82 LAN 8-7		132 LAN 11-0
33 MIL 6-4		83 LAN 8-0		133 LAN 10-8
34 LAN 6-4		84 LAN 9-5		134 LAN 12-1
35 LAN 6-3		85 MIL 10-3		135 LAN 12-4
36 LAN 6-2		86 MIL 9-5		136 MIL 13-4
37 LAN 4-0		87 MIL 10-0		137 LAN 13-2
38 LAN 6-5		88 LAN 10-3		138 LAN 11-6
39 LAN 6-1		89 LAN 10-2		139 MIL 14-3
40 MIL 7-2		90 MIL 11-2		140 LAN 13-3
41 MIL 7-1		91 MIL 10-4		141 LAN 12-5
42 MIL 6-0		92 MIL 11-3		142 MIL 11-7
43 MIL 7-6		93 LAN 9-0		143 MIL 14-1
44 MIL 7-3		94 MIL 9-8		144 MIL 13-0
45 LAN 5-0		95 LAN 9-6		145 MIL 14-0
46 MIL 7-4		96 LAN 10-1		146 LAN 11-8
47 LAN 7-2		97 MIL 11-1		147 MIL 13-5
48 LAN 7-3		98 LAN 9-7		148 LAN 13-1
49 LAN 7-4		99 LAN 10-4		149 LAN 11-9
50 LAN 7-1		100 MIL 10-5		150 LAN 12-6

October 16th Simulations

Brewers Looking To Hold Serve ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Brewers	E.Jackson vs S.Marcum	Brewers	55.06%	46.65%	STL 12-6

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October 14th Simulations

All Tied At Two ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Brewers	Cardinals	Z.Greinke vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	51.22%	61.04%	STL 7-1

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October 13th Simulations

Tigers On The Brink ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Tigers	C.Wilson vs J.Verlander	Tigers	60.24%	49.06%	DET 7-5
Brewers	Cardinals	R.Wolf vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	56.62%	64.06%	MIL 4-2

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October 12th Simulations

Double Your LCS Pleasure! ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Tigers	M.Harrison vs R.Porcello	Rangers	52.38%	54.12%	TEX 7-3
Brewers	Cardinals	Y.Gallardo vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	59.27%	63.67%	STL 4-3

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Cardinals vs Brewers Game #2 Simulation Box Score

Hitting

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Rafael Furcal	4.52	1.313	0.82	0.344	0.028	0.121	0.406	0.307	0.766	0.345
Jon Jay	4.484	1.34	0.9	0.311	0.038	0.091	0.408	0.261	0.947	0.341
Albert Pujols	4.28	1.372	0.826	0.273	0.002	0.27	0.715	0.334	0.582	0.402
Matt Holliday	4.186	1.277	0.722	0.352	0.004	0.2	0.667	0.336	0.993	0.381
Lance Berkman	3.925	1.157	0.698	0.229	0.016	0.215	0.659	0.504	0.906	0.388
Yadier Molina	4.087	1.235	0.844	0.277	0.006	0.108	0.524	0.215	0.566	0.344
David Freese	4.001	1.175	0.787	0.27	0.012	0.107	0.494	0.202	0.981	0.337
Nick Punto	3.78	0.999	0.625	0.26	0.029	0.086	0.433	0.329	0.902	0.325
Pitchers Spot	3.881	0.489	0.39	0.082	0.003	0.014	0.163	0.121	1.943	0.143
Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Corey Hart	4.211	1.175	0.712	0.236	0.031	0.197	0.44	0.358	0.998	0.355
Nyjer Morgan	4.195	1.218	0.817	0.263	0.081	0.057	0.311	0.291	0.752	0.336
Ryan Braun	4.046	1.295	0.791	0.264	0.034	0.206	0.613	0.324	0.725	0.395
Prince Fielder	3.608	1.051	0.592	0.235	0.008	0.216	0.633	0.712	0.768	0.41
Ricky Weeks	3.838	1.064	0.638	0.257	0.025	0.143	0.575	0.339	0.907	0.348
Jerry Hairston Jr.	3.778	0.981	0.63	0.257	0.012	0.082	0.442	0.278	0.577	0.312
Yunieskey Betancourt	3.825	0.995	0.676	0.202	0.025	0.092	0.426	0.12	0.504	0.295
Jonathan Lucroy	3.597	0.926	0.684	0.165	0.007	0.07	0.341	0.241	0.806	0.297
Pitchers Spot	3.597	0.483	0.39	0.078	0.004	0.011	0.137	0.142	1.552	0.155

Pitching

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Edwin Jackson	6.04	4.912	1.87	6.471	0.741	96.136	4.097
Fernando Salas	0.47	0.515	0.121	0.425	0.056	7.318	3.324
Kyle McClellan	0.403	0.268	0.125	0.469	0.074	6.437	5.195
Jason Motte	0.686	0.666	0.18	0.655	0.058	10.672	3.141
Octavio Dotel	0.355	0.41	0.127	0.334	0.054	5.782	3.92
Marc Rzepczynski	0.555	0.567	0.275	0.532	0.061	9.355	4.069
Mitchell Boggs	0.278	0.237	0.1	0.284	0.03	4.469	3.954
Arthur Rhodes	0.016	0.012	0.006	0.017	0.003	0.256	5.567
Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Shaun Marcum	5.845	5.098	1.613	6.858	0.884	94.537	4.249
John Axford	0.41	0.535	0.115	0.347	0.028	6.501	2.325
Francisco Rodriguez	0.45	0.546	0.146	0.422	0.039	7.299	2.866
Kameron Loe	0.785	0.762	0.175	0.836	0.075	12.336	3.165
LaTroy Hawkins	0.451	0.355	0.128	0.509	0.035	7.181	3.492
Takashi Saito	0.951	0.975	0.336	1.005	0.102	15.636	3.601
Tim Dillard	0.328	0.307	0.093	0.372	0.047	5.31	4.06
Marco Estrada	0.007	0.008	0.002	0.007	0.001	0.118	3.872

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 MIL 4-3		51 STL 8-4		101 MIL 10-2
2 MIL 3-2		52 MIL 7-2		102 MIL 10-5
3 MIL 5-4		53 MIL 4-0		103 STL 11-5
4 STL 3-2		54 STL 8-5		104 STL 12-3
5 STL 4-3		55 STL 8-1		105 MIL 8-0
6 MIL 2-1		56 MIL 8-7		106 STL 10-0
7 STL 4-2		57 STL 6-0		107 STL 10-7
8 STL 5-4		58 STL 9-2		108 STL 12-4
9 MIL 4-2		59 MIL 8-3		109 MIL 10-7
10 STL 5-3		60 MIL 8-4		110 MIL 10-9
11 MIL 6-5		61 MIL 8-5		111 STL 12-2
12 STL 2-1		62 STL 9-3		112 MIL 10-1
13 MIL 5-3		63 MIL 5-0		113 STL 10-8
14 STL 3-1		64 STL 9-4		114 MIL 9-0
15 STL 5-2		65 STL 7-0		115 MIL 10-6
16 MIL 3-1		66 STL 8-6		116 MIL 11-3
17 STL 4-1		67 MIL 8-6		117 STL 11-6
18 MIL 5-2		68 MIL 7-1		118 STL 12-5
19 MIL 4-1		69 MIL 8-2		119 MIL 11-4
20 STL 6-3		70 STL 8-7		120 MIL 11-2
21 STL 6-4		71 STL 9-1		121 STL 11-7
22 STL 5-1		72 MIL 6-0		122 MIL 10-8
23 STL 6-5		73 STL 9-5		123 STL 12-1
24 MIL 6-4		74 MIL 8-1		124 MIL 11-5
25 STL 6-2		75 STL 9-6		125 STL 11-0
26 MIL 7-6		76 STL 10-2		126 STL 13-3
27 MIL 6-3		77 STL 8-0		127 STL 10-9
28 STL 6-1		78 STL 10-3		128 STL 13-2
29 MIL 1-0		79 STL 10-4		129 MIL 11-6
30 STL 7-3		80 MIL 9-3		130 STL 13-4
31 STL 7-4		81 MIL 9-8		131 STL 13-1
32 STL 7-2		82 MIL 9-2		132 STL 11-8
33 STL 3-0		83 MIL 9-4		133 MIL 12-3
34 MIL 5-1		84 STL 10-5		134 MIL 10-0
35 MIL 6-2		85 MIL 9-5		135 STL 13-5
36 STL 2-0		86 STL 10-1		136 STL 13-6
37 STL 4-0		87 MIL 7-0		137 MIL 11-10
38 STL 7-5		88 STL 9-7		138 STL 12-6
39 MIL 2-0		89 STL 9-8		139 MIL 11-1
40 MIL 3-0		90 MIL 9-6		140 MIL 12-2
41 STL 7-1		91 STL 10-6		141 MIL 12-5
42 STL 5-0		92 STL 9-0		142 STL 12-0
43 STL 7-6		93 STL 11-3		143 MIL 11-8
44 MIL 7-4		94 STL 11-4		144 MIL 11-7
45 MIL 7-5		95 MIL 9-7		145 STL 11-9
46 STL 1-0		96 MIL 9-1		146 STL 12-7
47 STL 8-2		97 STL 11-2		147 STL 14-3
48 MIL 7-3		98 STL 11-1		148 MIL 12-6
49 MIL 6-1		99 MIL 10-4		149 STL 14-5
50 STL 8-3		100 MIL 10-3		150 MIL 12-4

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October 10th Simulations

Cardinals and Tigers Need A Win ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Tigers	Rangers	M.Scherzer vs D.Holland	Rangers	58.25%	62.30%	TEX 7-3
Cardinals	Brewers	E.Jackson vs S.Marcum	Cardinals	56.99%	49.53%	STL 12-3

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