Showing posts with label Aaron Harang. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aaron Harang. Show all posts

Monday, November 26, 2012

Aaron Harang, The Weakest Link


Next up on our journey through the Dodgers starting pitcher comparables is Aaron Harang.  One whiff of his comparables and you get a sense as to why Harang's name is being bandied around as a player who could be traded to make room for a top free agent signing to join the rotation.  Harang moreso than Capuano would be the pitcher you would want to trade from the Capang duet.  Harang strikes out an average amount of hitters but walks a ton of them.  His low GB/FB ratio does not match well with someone who walks so many hitters.  No ground balls to erase them on double plays and extra base runners to trot home on the fly balls that land in the bleachers.

Top 50 Similar Starting Pitchers

RankNameK/9BB/9GB/FB
NAAaron Harang6.573.830.96
1Jeremy Hellickson6.023.170.97
2James McDonald7.773.780.96
3Chris Narveson6.883.671.17
4Brett Cecil6.843.210.85
5Travis Wood6.663.190.77
6Barry Zito5.513.451.02
7John Lackey6.073.151.08
8Matt Moore9.074.080.87
9Jarrod Parker6.873.111.44
10Josh Johnson7.873.051.52
11Ryan Vogelsong7.333.021.21
12Josh Beckett7.462.621.08
13C.J. Wilson7.953.631.63
14Jair Jurrjens4.752.891.07
15Vance Worley7.513.101.35
16Nathan Eovaldi5.973.721.40
17Ervin Santana6.852.981.15
18Mat Latos8.182.801.18
19Jon Lester7.743.181.63
20Clay Buchholz6.233.121.42
21Wandy Rodriguez6.672.731.44
22Shaun Marcum7.512.770.86
23Alexi Ogando6.662.250.95
24Freddy Garcia6.752.951.02
25Tommy Hanson8.793.521.00
26Jhoulys Chacin6.554.091.54
27Erik Bedard8.573.771.23
28Ivan Nova7.103.021.55
29Randy Wolf5.912.891.09
30Philip Humber6.853.021.07
31Bud Norris8.713.481.00
32Bruce Chen6.282.440.74
33Edwin Jackson7.502.781.35
34Derek Holland7.522.801.18
35Ted Lilly6.922.730.82
36Kevin Millwood5.982.831.31
37Jeff Niemann7.332.591.44
38Mike Minor7.532.920.86
39Chad Billingsley7.533.281.36
40Jason Vargas5.852.410.93
41Felipe Paulino8.953.611.23
42Dillon Gee7.233.101.57
43John Danks6.432.931.17
44Gavin Floyd7.452.861.29
45Jeremy Guthrie5.282.641.07
46Wade Davis5.143.080.85
47Chris Capuano7.652.481.04
48Luke Hochevar6.542.911.35
49Ubaldo Jimenez7.814.411.15
50Mike Pelfrey5.062.871.44

Links to other player comparables...

Clayton Kershaw
Josh Beckett
Chris Capuano



Tuesday, September 04, 2012

September 5th - Padres vs Dodgers Simulation Results




                   |     Wins     Losses           RS         RA
  Dodgers  +-----------------------------------------------------------
                   |    57896    42104        439771   384189

Hitters
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIRUNSBBSOwOBA
Will Venable4.4091.2750.8200.2870.0360.1330.4190.3790.3940.9030.352
Everth Cabrera4.3311.1630.8030.3000.0200.0400.3920.2800.3130.9460.308
Chase Headley4.1581.2140.8080.2770.0070.1220.5600.2260.4290.9810.355
Carlos Quentin4.1421.0310.6350.2380.0020.1570.5760.1860.3230.8050.315
Yasmal Grandal4.0761.1010.8050.2580.0060.0310.3520.1980.2960.7680.304
Yonder Alonso3.9161.1750.7480.3310.0030.0940.4540.1810.3570.6450.357
Cameron Maybin3.8911.0390.7390.2220.0190.0590.3660.1940.2540.8400.306
Alexi Amarista3.7791.0440.6980.2540.0210.0710.4580.1760.2850.6430.325
Pitchers Spot3.8120.5440.4410.0890.0020.0110.2040.1000.1351.5900.160
Dodgers           
Mark Ellis4.3211.2590.8690.3010.0180.0710.3280.3030.3620.6520.338
Shane Victorino4.1781.2570.8400.2660.0520.0980.4170.3650.3630.5300.357
Adrian Gonzalez4.1781.3260.9220.2660.0060.1330.6270.2350.3130.7450.368
Matt Kemp4.0071.3360.8320.3180.0280.1580.6670.2780.3780.7630.403
Hanley Ramirez3.9081.2450.7880.3100.0230.1240.6410.2510.3720.6720.383
Andre Ethier3.8341.0880.7730.2100.0070.0980.5320.1760.3320.8650.335
Luis Cruz3.8131.1210.7050.3310.0070.0770.4850.1860.2370.6000.340
A.J. Ellis3.5711.0420.7330.2350.0080.0660.4380.1530.3780.6990.345
Pitchers Spot3.6900.5940.4700.1090.0030.0120.1900.1120.1671.3610.183

Pitchers
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Clayton Richard5.8534.0891.8567.2240.58495.3944.050
Luke Gregerson0.4250.4670.0990.4090.0306.6462.630
Dale Thayer0.4140.3410.0840.4640.0306.4353.087
Brad Brach0.5870.6710.2550.5960.0669.9333.673
Tom Layne0.2830.2650.1210.3090.0294.7493.925
Cory Burns0.2270.2080.1110.2500.0203.8873.984
Joe Thatcher0.5970.5690.2460.6380.0449.9453.496
Nick Vincent0.3230.2760.1290.3790.0365.4184.153
Dodgers       
Aaron Harang6.2374.9791.8016.7940.54298.8153.599
Brandon League0.4320.3930.1240.4080.0166.7182.737
Ronald Belisario0.3800.4160.1140.3410.0195.9902.567
Randy Choate0.6050.7280.1910.5130.0379.5962.543
Javy Guerra0.2490.2610.0910.2260.0113.9992.750
Matt Guerrier0.1510.1420.0450.1490.0102.3853.071
Shawn Tolleson0.7130.7160.2360.6970.05811.4323.244
Jamey Wright0.4820.4870.1870.4580.0237.8312.973

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, August 30, 2012

August 31st - Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Simulation Box Score



                   |    Wins      Losses           RS          RA
  Dodgers  +-----------------------------------------------------------
                   |    49630     50370        366556    382863

Hitters
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIRUNSBBSOwOBA
Chris Young4.4481.1130.7040.3090.0090.0910.3350.2570.3451.0080.304
Aaron Hill4.3871.1710.7790.2730.0140.1060.3910.2290.2580.6940.313
Jason Kubel4.2231.210.7330.2760.0130.1890.5470.2060.4031.0470.363
Paul Goldschmidt4.1931.2120.7520.3240.0040.1320.5140.2090.2961.0040.346
Justin Upton4.0441.160.8390.2180.0110.0910.450.2270.3420.9850.335
Miguel Montero3.8181.1140.7690.2420.0090.0930.4770.1830.4820.8390.357
Chris Johnson3.9691.1340.7850.2510.0090.0880.4840.1490.21.0110.323
Jake Elmore3.7890.9970.7180.220.0110.0490.3920.1520.2790.7560.303
Pitchers Spot3.8390.5280.4340.0820.0020.010.1850.0870.1341.7020.154
Dodgers           
Mark Ellis4.3161.1990.8730.2520.0210.0530.2550.2920.2780.7520.312
Shane Victorino4.1561.2170.8240.2720.0590.0620.3330.3760.3140.5250.34
Adrian Gonzalez4.1011.3480.8620.3580.0060.1220.630.2290.340.6210.386
Hanley Ramirez4.011.2070.8090.2790.0260.0940.5260.2360.2960.7840.351
Andre Ethier3.8641.1520.760.2920.0090.0910.5290.1790.3750.7550.356
Luis Cruz3.9011.0710.7130.290.0070.060.4280.1630.1840.6940.309
Juan Rivera3.7541.0010.7210.1960.0050.0790.4170.1320.2230.6870.306
A.J. Ellis3.5810.9750.7210.1970.0080.050.3380.130.2890.80.313
Pitchers Spot3.6480.5250.4260.0860.0030.0090.1450.10.1281.5520.16

Pitchers
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Trevor Cahill6.2884.7481.6247.1080.4699.0363.415
J.J. Putz0.4810.580.0850.4230.0287.3352.088
David Hernandez0.4040.5110.1320.3520.0246.5022.412
Brad Ziegler0.5940.4320.1720.6450.0169.342.975
Matt Lindstrom0.2610.2020.0890.2810.0154.1833.448
Matt Albers0.1950.1670.0770.2120.0193.2143.934
Bryan Shaw0.4260.360.1570.4620.0356.9483.689
Mike Zagurski0.1880.170.0910.2110.0223.2194.396
Dodgers       
Aaron Harang6.1215.1951.7136.7920.63197.6093.683
Ronald Belisario0.4280.4970.1260.370.0256.7372.518
Randy Choate0.4080.5270.1390.3580.0316.6262.631
Brandon League0.6240.6020.1920.6320.0339.9662.876
Shawn Tolleson0.2660.2810.0880.2640.0254.2973.309
Josh Wall0.1510.150.0380.1570.0142.393.196
Jamey Wright0.7350.7840.2910.7010.0412.0492.968
Kenley Jansen0.5561.0120.1520.3650.0498.921.535

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Saturday, August 25, 2012

August 26th - Marlins vs Dodgers Simulation Box Score



                   |    Wins      Losses            RS          RA
  Dodgers  +------------------------------------------------------------------
                   |   60539      39461         435891    361701

Hitters
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIRUNSBBSOwOBA
Bryan Petersen4.3701.1930.8380.2410.0150.0990.3240.3100.4040.9070.327
Justin Ruggiano4.3541.2010.8070.2910.0130.0910.4010.2660.2400.9520.317
Jose Reyes4.2081.3310.9710.2600.0380.0610.4280.2770.3370.4290.356
Carlos Lee4.1081.1570.8310.2380.0050.0820.5340.1820.3240.4710.326
Giancarlo Stanton4.0221.1010.6510.2660.0040.1810.6160.1640.3241.1360.347
Greg Dobbs4.0451.1650.8430.2370.0040.0820.4360.1450.2120.6640.322
John Buck3.8030.9190.6330.2190.0020.0650.3380.1210.3201.0020.291
Donovan Solano3.7861.0010.7040.2260.0120.0590.3310.1460.2310.7540.302
Pitchers Spot3.7830.5200.4250.0830.0020.0100.1570.0960.1341.6540.154
Dodgers           
Shane Victorino4.3191.3140.8790.2720.0560.1070.3720.4000.3250.4890.357
Mark Ellis4.1971.2400.8420.3000.0180.0810.4670.2800.3160.5690.342
Matt Kemp4.1171.4030.8660.3300.0280.1790.6560.2880.3430.7160.410
Adrian Gonzalez4.0721.3160.9070.2660.0050.1380.6290.2100.2830.6690.374
Hanley Ramirez3.9121.2710.7920.3190.0230.1370.5950.2420.3380.6140.389
Andre Ethier3.8271.1220.7930.2170.0070.1050.5290.1710.3120.7890.344
Luis Cruz3.8121.1330.7040.3350.0070.0870.4890.1790.2120.5490.343
Matt Treanor3.6340.9530.6840.2320.0030.0340.3610.1470.2810.6540.300
Pitchers Spot3.6770.6090.4820.1100.0030.0140.1930.1150.1441.2530.185

Pitchers
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Mark Buehrle5.9903.9111.4627.4620.66795.1574.074
Heath Bell0.4040.3640.1370.4070.0246.4673.192
Steven Cishek0.4060.4190.1290.3970.0216.5042.776
Mike Dunn0.5680.5560.2820.5930.0489.6883.823
Ryan Webb0.2930.2110.0920.3240.0144.6523.296
Carlos Zambrano0.2200.1760.1060.2420.0163.7154.008
Chris Hatcher0.5150.3910.2260.6090.0678.6824.690
Chad Gaudin0.3010.2730.1190.3280.0254.9833.636
Dodgers       
Aaron Harang6.3284.7931.6616.9190.54999.0653.600
Kenley Jansen0.4430.7260.1140.2960.0336.9541.670
Brandon League0.3740.3170.1020.3730.0175.8142.912
Ronald Belisario0.5960.6180.1640.5450.0319.2952.640
Randy Choate0.2500.2880.0750.2160.0153.9332.565
Scott Elbert0.1480.1560.0480.1420.0112.3743.037
Shawn Tolleson0.6700.6330.1990.6650.05310.5923.227
Jamey Wright0.4520.4360.1610.4330.0217.2532.952

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Saturday, August 18, 2012

August 18th - Dodgers vs Braves Simulation Box Score



                  |      Wins    Losses         RS         RA
  Dodgers  +---------------------------------------------------
                  |     42828    57172     413954   454756

  Vegas Odds:
             Money Line:   Braves -147/+137 or (Braves have a 58.68% chance of winning)
             Run Total:       Over 8-1/2 -105,  Under 8-1/2 -115

Hitters
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIRUNSBBSOwOBA
Shane Victorino4.4781.3270.8980.2460.0720.1110.3830.3960.3650.7190.352
Mark Ellis4.4031.2260.8840.2450.0260.0700.4450.2590.2810.8780.316
Matt Kemp4.3251.3640.9080.2680.0410.1460.5870.2740.3021.0390.371
Andre Ethier4.1731.2180.7930.2890.0110.1240.5760.2180.3791.0230.352
Hanley Ramirez4.1051.2220.8110.2680.0360.1060.5250.2440.3180.9250.352
James Loney4.0221.2000.8410.2670.0100.0810.5080.1980.3100.6690.343
Luis Cruz4.0041.0870.7340.2760.0090.0680.4610.1670.1990.8280.308
A.J. Ellis3.6621.0050.7440.1900.0090.0620.4050.1580.4440.9110.331
Pitchers Spot3.8710.5240.4270.0810.0040.0120.1730.0980.1421.8590.154
Braves
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIRUNSBBSOwOBA
Michael Bourn4.3391.4481.0050.2480.1230.0710.3620.4720.4160.8180.387
Martin Prado4.2381.3740.9960.2680.0320.0790.5400.3250.3400.5070.366
Jason Heyward4.0101.2520.7840.2450.0440.1800.6910.2790.5510.8180.400
Chipper Jones4.0291.2660.8200.3210.0110.1140.6500.2360.4010.5910.375
Freddie Freeman3.8621.2800.8040.3110.0150.1500.6900.2100.4820.6820.408
Dan Uggla3.7030.9770.6210.2190.0140.1220.5280.1810.4940.9590.345
David Ross3.7631.1070.8430.2150.0040.0450.4160.1760.3300.7880.331
Paul Janish3.7160.9500.6740.2130.0300.0330.3740.1620.2660.6330.295
Pitchers Spot3.7250.5960.4840.0950.0050.0120.1960.1340.1641.4270.181

Pitchers
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Aaron Harang5.6124.1002.1447.0270.59093.9614.251
Kenley Jansen0.4020.6120.1580.3100.0286.6422.230
Brandon League0.4090.3340.1480.4610.0226.7013.338
Javy Guerra0.6040.5300.2920.6670.03710.2853.683
Randy Choate0.3200.3610.1230.3100.0165.2782.730
Ronald Belisario0.2550.2450.1010.2770.0184.2533.375
Shawn Tolleson0.6800.6720.2630.7600.07211.3913.755
Jamey Wright0.4000.3700.2150.4390.0236.9463.724
Braves
Ben Sheets6.2365.3881.6207.1740.51699.7983.326
Craig Kimbrel0.4310.7530.1080.2870.0226.8281.124
Jonny Venters0.3660.4810.1680.3400.0356.2393.189
Eric O'Flaherty0.6140.5990.1950.6640.0449.9803.127
Cristhian Martinez0.2790.2970.0720.2900.0274.4563.096
Cory Gearrin0.1630.1540.0750.1820.0172.7794.047
Luis Avilan0.7010.7410.3430.7430.05612.0623.588
Chad Durbin0.4310.4370.1590.4930.0657.2344.244

Note: Simulation ran with actual lineups.
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, August 12, 2012

August 13th - Dodgers vs Pirates Simulation Box Score



                  |     Wins    Losses           RS         RA
  Dodgers  +-----------------------------------------------------
                  |    52047    47953        451087   407445

  Vegas Odds
                       Money Line: Pirates  -123/+118 or 54.65% chance of winning for the Pirates
                       Run Totals:  Over 8 -112, Under 8 +102 (approximately 8.2 runs)

Hitters
4.5531.3960.9360.2700.0750.1150.4060.4230.3440.6700.361
Mark Ellis4.4811.2930.9210.2650.0280.0790.4840.2780.2590.8310.325
Matt Kemp4.4011.4430.9440.2920.0410.1660.6400.3000.2821.0030.385
Andre Ethier4.2491.3050.8250.3300.0110.1400.6410.2370.3640.9470.369
Hanley Ramirez4.1911.3110.8560.2960.0260.1330.5920.2670.2900.8870.367
James Loney4.0851.2730.8710.3010.0100.0900.5570.2210.3010.6100.357
Luis Cruz4.0681.1410.7610.2970.0310.0520.4670.1910.1880.7900.314
A.J. Ellis3.7351.0780.7890.2080.0100.0710.4490.1700.4250.8570.343
Pitchers Spot3.9370.5780.4680.0940.0040.0120.1890.1110.1311.7580.163
Pirates
Starling Marte4.3091.2100.8780.2130.0000.1190.3380.3030.2990.8630.326
Travis Snider4.1711.2000.8210.2430.0060.1300.4400.2540.3030.8960.340
Andrew McCutchen4.0391.3100.8520.2450.0470.1660.5670.2730.3710.7350.393
Garrett Jones4.0001.2230.7200.3020.0300.1710.6660.2170.3430.6870.380
Neil Walker3.8601.2320.8110.3050.0200.0950.5390.1990.3680.7080.376
Pedro Alvarez3.7591.1060.6840.2690.0120.1410.5700.1420.3720.8010.366
Rod Barajas3.7350.8870.6230.1870.0040.0730.3730.1170.2590.7320.282
Clint Barmes3.7130.9710.6760.2200.0160.0590.3520.1280.1720.6920.295
Pitchers Spot3.6430.5690.4600.0920.0050.0110.1650.0990.1461.4030.175

Pitchers
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Aaron Harang5.9344.4991.7136.9190.73095.1124.148
Kenley Jansen0.4570.7270.1340.3250.0367.2861.918
Brandon League0.3980.3280.1100.4210.0246.2603.155
Javy Guerra0.5800.5220.2120.5910.0419.3793.408
Randy Choate0.2890.3240.0900.2730.0194.6272.761
Ronald Belisario0.2320.2280.0680.2360.0193.6973.158
Shawn Tolleson0.5820.5850.1720.6100.0759.3633.755
Jamey Wright0.3250.3050.1320.3330.0225.3493.426
Pirates
Jeff Karstens6.1485.0771.4857.4440.55798.6333.451
Joel Hanrahan0.4070.5160.1250.3750.0276.5762.458
Jason Grilli0.3950.5820.1290.3410.0326.4842.279
Tony Watson0.6120.6470.2130.6830.06810.2013.574
Juan Cruz0.2810.3070.1240.2950.0264.7703.544
Chad Qualls0.1710.1290.0520.2180.0192.8164.082
Chris Resop0.7510.7350.2550.8640.07612.4653.575
Jeff Locke0.4700.3600.2000.5970.0538.0314.419

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Monday, August 06, 2012

August 7th - Rockies vs Dodgers Simulation Box Score




                                   Simulator Output
                   |   Wins      Losses       RS           RA
  Dodgers  +---------------------------------------------------
                   |   57865     42135     408570    359697

Vegas Odds: Money Line... Dodgers -164/+158 or 61.69% win expectancy
                       Run Totals ... Over 7-1/2 -105, Under 7-1/2 +105

Hitting
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIRUNSBBSOwOBA
Eric Young4.3721.1410.8570.1980.0100.0760.2820.3480.3951.0360.307
Josh Rutledge4.3571.1350.8010.2630.0220.0490.3670.2800.2420.9240.294
Dexter Fowler4.0641.1450.8040.2280.0470.0670.4390.2720.4971.0620.344
Carlos Gonzalez4.0181.2580.8220.2590.0230.1550.6440.2560.4670.9540.387
Tyler Colvin4.0081.0150.6240.2420.0170.1310.5820.2090.3760.9080.323
Ramon Hernandez3.9470.9790.7550.1980.0010.0250.3900.1360.2890.8850.279
Jordan Pacheco3.9341.0710.7920.2310.0080.0400.3560.1360.1850.7110.297
Jonathan Herrera3.7320.9720.6870.2190.0130.0540.3280.1430.3010.7820.305
Pitchers Spot3.7720.4710.3840.0760.0020.0090.1460.0880.1571.8400.146
Dodgers
Shane Victorino4.2411.2630.8610.2490.0600.0920.3430.4040.4080.5530.355
Mark Ellis4.1911.1870.8520.2440.0230.0680.4370.2650.3050.6880.324
Matt Kemp4.1131.3240.8820.2690.0320.1410.5810.2870.3320.8370.380
Andre Ethier3.9311.1870.7520.3090.0090.1160.5830.2260.4370.7880.370
Hanley Ramirez3.8961.1940.7890.2750.0210.1100.5530.2480.3400.7330.364
James Loney3.7971.1460.7850.2800.0080.0730.5170.2040.3500.5090.352
Luis Cruz3.7921.0330.6940.2720.0240.0420.4350.1700.2180.6540.309
A.J. Ellis3.5670.9770.7460.1790.0070.0450.3880.1410.3430.7910.317
Pitchers Spot3.6620.5550.4530.0900.0030.0100.1700.1060.1491.4510.171

Pitching
NameIPSOBBHitsHRFIP
Alex White5.9584.1451.9707.0670.4833.855
Rafael Betancourt0.4250.4780.0950.3920.0262.424
Matt Belisle0.4210.3970.0810.4320.0192.478
Rex Brothers0.5860.7120.2740.5440.0453.160
Josh Roenicke0.2760.2010.1190.3170.0183.875
Matt Reynolds0.2250.2250.0610.2430.0313.797
Adam Ottavino0.5330.5840.2110.5330.0523.461
Mike Ekstrom0.3030.2620.0690.3390.0233.149
Dodgers
Aaron Harang6.3045.8561.9676.4670.4463.199
Kenley Jansen0.4460.7810.1120.2690.0211.052
Brandon League0.3930.3520.1000.3900.0142.648
Javy Guerra0.6080.5630.2100.6020.0292.997
Randy Choate0.2600.3030.0820.2250.0112.358
Ronald Belisario0.1530.1550.0420.1430.0082.656
Shawn Tolleson0.6820.6840.2320.6760.0583.313
Jamey Wright0.4230.4080.1650.4150.0182.980

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Alex White vs Aaron Harang - Tale of The Tape

Monday, July 30, 2012

July 30th Simulation Results



VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAATEXErvin Santana vs Roy OswaltTEX58.42%62.20%TBD
ARILANTrevor Cahill vs Aaron HarangLAN56.43%55.18%TBD
DETBOSMax Scherzer vs Clay BuchholzBOS53.38%43.95%TBD
FLAATLMark Buehrle vs Tommy HansonATL58.59%54.32%TBD
SDCINEdinson Volquez vs Mike LeakeCIN60.55%55.98%TBD
BALNYAMiguel Gonzalez vs Freddy GarciaNYA63.17%56.24%TBD
PITCHNErik Bedard vs Justin GermanoPIT56.80%53.49%TBD
CHAMINJose Quintana vs Cole DeVriesCHA56.99%50.25%TBD
HOUMILBud Norris vs Marco EstradaMIL63.30%62.77%TBD
TBOAKDavid Price vs A.J. GriffinTB54.02%53.44%TBD
TORSEARicky Romero vs Hisashi IwakumaSEA50.74%51.92%TBD
NYNSFJeremy Hefner vs Madison BumgarnerSF65.64%60.08%TBD

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

July 25th Simulation Results



VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BOSTEXJosh Beckett vs Derek HollandTEXTBD57.52%TBD
DETCLEMax Scherzer vs Derek LoweDETTBD56.52%TBD
KCLAALuke Hochevar vs Dan HarenLAATBD67.88%TBD
MINCHANick Blackburn vs Jake PeavyCHATBD61.75%TBD
WASNYNStephen Strasburg vs Jeremy HefnerWASTBD58.24%TBD
CHNPITRyan Dempster vs Kevin CorreiaCHNTBD50.88%TBD
ATLFLATommy Hanson vs Ricky NolascoFLATBD52.47%TBD
MILPHIMarco Estrada vs Vance WorleyPHITBD59.74%TBD
COLARIJeff Francis vs Trevor CahillARITBD54.99%TBD
NYASEAIvan Nova vs Hisashi IwakumaNYATBD54.88%TBD
SDSFJason Marquis vs Tim LincecumSFTBD62.13%TBD
TBBALDavid Price vs Miguel GonzalezTBTBD50.93%TBD
OAKTORA.J. Griffin vs Ricky RomeroTORTBD52.95%TBD
CINHOUHomer Bailey vs Bud NorrisCINTBD51.47%TBD
LANSTLAaron Harang vs Kyle LohseSTLTBD62.00%TBD

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Friday, July 20, 2012

July 20th Simulation Results



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALCLEMiguel Gonzalez vs Derek LoweCLE56.04%55.96%- - -
COLSDDrew Pomeranz vs Jason MarquisSD50.25%54.62%SD, 1.6u
MILCINMarco Estrada vs Homer BaileyCIN56.04%48.98%MIL, 2.4u
MINKCNick Blackburn vs Luke HochevarKC57.89%58.54%- - -
SEATBHisashi Iwakuma vs James ShieldsTB63.17%62.81%- - -
TEXLAADerek Holland vs Jered WeaverLAA58.76%57.32%TEX, 0.3u
TORBOSAaron Laffey vs Josh BeckettBOS62.76%62.38%- - -
ATLWASTommy Hanson vs Stephen StrasburgWAS58.93%63.80%WAS, 2.2u
CHADETJake Peavy vs Justin VerlanderDET62.76%59.82%CHA, 0.8u
FLAPITRicky Nolasco vs Kevin CorreiaPIT50.74%50.80%- - -
SFPHITim Lincecum vs Vance WorleyPHI55.06%56.41%PHI, 0.4u
LANNYNAaron Harang vs Johan SantanaNYN58.25%58.08%- - -
CHNSTLRyan Dempster vs Kyle LohseSTL59.27%57.63%CHN, 0.4u
HOUARIBud Norris vs Trevor CahillARI64.73%61.67%HOU, 0.8u
NYAOAKIvan Nova vs Tom MiloneNYA54.23%52.68%OAK, 0.4u

Today's Run Total Bets:
LAN vs NYN, Over 7.5 -110, 0.8 units
CHN vs STL, Over 8.0 -105, 0.8 units
HOU vs ARI, Over 9.0 +105, 0.8 units

Previous Day: +1.9 units (risked 4.4u) ML and -4.4 units (risked 4.4u) on Run Totals

Current ML ROI: 3.94%
ML ROI Last 50 Bets: 9.7%
ML ROI Last 25 Bets: 26.0%

Notes:  A good day on the ML bets going 5-2, but a bad day on the Run Totals going 0-3.  Going to tone down the Run Total bets until I start doing a little better there.  Today's biggest bet will be on the Brewers, who have Marco Estrada pitching.  He may only have 47 innings of starting pitching so far this year but his peripherals have been amazing.  They are sure to regress, but he is much better than his ERA and W/L 0-3 record suggest.  Other decent size bets are with the Nationals and Strasburg along with the Padres facing a shaky Colorado Rockies team.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Saturday, July 14, 2012

July 14th Simulation Results




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbML Bets
BOSTBClay Buchholz vs David PriceTB60.08%57.15%BOS, 0.8u
CHAKCJake Peavy vs Luke HochevarCHA54.44%55.08%- - -
NYNATLR.A. Dickey vs Tommy HansonATL51.34%52.09%- - -
PHICOLVance Worley vs Jeremy GuthriePHI54.44%52.00%- - -
SDLANEdinson Volquez vs Aaron HarangLAN56.43%58.91%LAN, 0.8u
STLCINKyle Lohse vs Mike LeakeCIN52.26%56.11%CIN, 1.1u
LAANYAJerome Williams vs Freddy GarciaNYA56.80%56.12%- - -
CLETORUbaldo Jimenez vs Aaron LaffeyTOR53.38%58.22%TOR, 1.5u
ARICHNJoe Saunders vs Ryan DempsterCHN54.85%55.94%CHN, 0.2u
DETBALMax Scherzer vs Wei-Yin ChenDET52.49%50.07%BAL, 0.6u
OAKMINTom Milone vs Cole DeVriesMIN52.72%52.13%- - -
PITMILKevin Correia vs Marco EstradaMIL57.17%57.10%- - -
WASFLAGio Gonzalez vs Mark BuehrleFLA50.74%47.12%WAS, 0.9u
HOUSFLucas Harrell vs Tim LincecumSF62.26%59.05%- - -
TEXSEAYu Darvish vs Felx HernandezTEX52.27%52.89%- - -

Run Total Bets:
Pirates vs Brewers, Risking 2.0 units to win 2.0 units, Over 9 runs
Nationals vs Marlins, Risking 1.0 unit to win 1.0 unit, Under 7-1/2 runs

Previous Day: 5.8 units of Run Total bets; 3.1 units won
Current ML ROI: 3.21%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Independence Day Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAACLEErvin Santana vs Derek LoweCLE50.00%52.95%TBD
CHNATLPaul Maholm vs Randall DelgadoATL62.12%64.82%TBD
CINLANMike Leake vs Aaron HarangCIN56.90%54.40%TBD
NYATBDavid Phelps vs David PriceTB59.51%55.05%TBD
TEXCHAScott Feldman vs Dylan AxelrodTEX52.15%55.13%TBD
SFWASMadison Bumgarner vs Edwin JacksonWASTBD52.67%TBD
PHINYNCliff Lee vs Chris YoungPHITBD60.83%TBD
HOUPITDallas Keuchel vs Kevin CorreiaPITTBD56.11%TBD
BOSOAKAaron Cook vs A.J. GriffinOAK54.13%51.36%TBD
BALSEAChris Tillman vs Hector NoesiSEA50.00%50.04%TBD
FLAMILJosh Johnson vs Randy WolfFLA55.56%56.98%TBD
MINDETBrian Duensing vs Justin VerlanderDET71.83%63.66%TBD
KCTORLuis Mendoza vs Carlos VillanuevaTOR59.02%48.93%TBD
COLSTLJeremy Guthrie vs Adam WainwrightSTL65.81%62.34%TBD
SDARIJason Marquis vs Ian KennedyARI65.81%69.64%TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

June 12th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAALANJerome Williams vs Aaron HarangLANTBD52.63%TBD
ARITEXIan Kennedy vs Colby LewisTEXTBD62.71%TBD
CLECINJeanmar Gomez vs Johnny CuetoCINTBD62.68%TBD
MILKCZach Greinke vs Luis MendozaMILTBD58.58%TBD
NYAATLC.C. Sabathia vs Mike MinorNYATBD53.27%TBD
NYNTBChris Young vs Alex CobbTBTBD58.38%TBD
PITBALBrad Lincoln vs Wei-Yin ChenBALTBD62.80%TBD
WASTORChienMing Wang vs Henderson AlvarezTORTBDNATBD
BOSFLAClay Buchholz vs Mark BuehrleFLATBD58.37%TBD
DETCHNMax Scherzer vs Paul MaholmDETTBD56.47%TBD
PHIMINKyle Kendrick vs Nick BlackburnPHITBD50.73%TBD
CHASTLJose Quintana vs Adam WainwrightSTLTBD65.65%TBD
OAKCOLBartolo Colon vs Jeremy GuthrieCOLTBD55.79%TBD
SDSEAClayton Richard vs Felx HernandezSEATBD53.87%TBD
HOUSFBud Norris vs Madison BumgarnerSFTBD63.13%TBD

Previous Day: No bets.
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, June 06, 2012

June 7th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbBet Units
BALBOSBrian Matusz vs Clay BuchholzBOS58.25%52.95%---
PITCINKevin Correia vs Mike LeakeCIN60.40%63.15%---
SFSDMatt Cain vs Jason MarquisSF57.54%57.10%---
TORCHAHenderson Alvarez vs Jake PeavyCHA58.59%63.03%---
CLEDETDerek Lowe vs Casey CrosbyDET52.49%49.64%---
LANPHIAaron Harang vs Cole HamelsPHI63.03%63.09%---
NYNWASR.A. Dickey vs ChienMing WangNYN53.60%52.21%---
CHNMILMatt Garza vs Randy WolfMIL52.04%55.20%---
TEXOAKYu Darvish vs Brandon McCarthyTEX60.40%58.20%---
TBNYADavid Price vs C.C. SabathiaNYA58.42%61.06%---
ATLFLAMike Minor vs Mark BuehrleFLA56.62%58.35%---
STLHOULance Lynn vs J.A. HappSTL59.60%58.62%---

Wednesday's Results: No bets
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yesterday's Synopsis
No bets yesterday. Would've been a slight down day had I done so.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Saturday, June 02, 2012

June 2nd Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbUnits Bet
ARISDDaniel Hudson vs Edinson VolquezSD50.74%57.57%SD, 1.5
BALTBBrian Matusz vs Jeremy HellicksonTB60.24%52.92%BAL, 1.0
LANCOLAaron Harang vs Juan NicasioCOL57.17%57.53%---
MINCLEP.J. Walters vs Josh TomlinCLE56.04%60.13%CLE, 0.9
OAKKCBrandon McCarthy vs Luke HochevarKC54.23%57.29%KC, 0.6
SEACHAHector Noesi vs Gavin FloydCHA59.76%61.33%CHA, 0.3
TEXLAAYu Darvish vs C.J. WilsonLAA50.25%50.21%---
BOSTORFelix Doubront vs Kyle DrabekBOS52.94%51.20%TOR, 0.2
ATLWASBrandon Beachy vs Stephen StrasburgWAS58.07%57.98%---
FLAPHIRicky Nolasco vs Cole HamelsPHI59.10%58.95%---
CINHOUMat Latos vs Wandy RodriguezCIN54.65%52.46%HOU, 0.3
NYADETHiroki Kuroda vs Rick PorcelloNYA53.16%47.99%DET, 1.0
PITMILErik Bedard vs Shaun MarcumMIL58.25%59.68%MIL, 0.3
STLNYNLance Lynn vs R.A. DickeySTL52.94%50.44%NYN, 0.4
CHNSFMatt Garza vs Matt CainSF60.08%63.19%SF, 0.7

Friday's Results: +0.5 units
Current ROI: 5.48%
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Monday, May 21, 2012

May 22nd Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
ATLCINBrandon Beachy vs Mat LatosATL52.94%52.49%TBD
DETCLERick Porcello vs Ubaldo JimenezCLE52.27%55.24%TBD
MINCHAP.J. Walters vs Gavin FloydCHA62.19%58.23%TBD
TORTBDrew Hutchison vs Matt MooreTB55.85%53.14%TBD
BOSBALFelix Doubront vs Brian MatuszBOS54.23%42.79%TBD
KCNYALuke Hochevar vs Phil HughesNYA63.17%56.14%TBD
NYNPITR.A. Dickey vs James McDonaldPIT55.06%52.15%TBD
WASPHIJordan Zimmerman vs Roy HalladayPHI59.10%60.63%TBD
COLFLAJuan Nicasio vs Ricky NolascoFLA55.26%NATBD
CHNHOUTravis Wood vs J.A. HappHOU54,44%52.81%TBD
SFMILMatt Cain vs Shaun MarcumMIL50.25%53.57%TBD
SDSTLEdinson Volquez vs Adam WainwrightSTL60.40%56.07%TBD
LANARIAaron Harang vs Trevor CahillARI57.72%48.63%TBD
LAAOAKC.J. Wilson vs Graham GodfreyLAA60.24%56.18%TBD
TEXSEAMatt Harrison vs Hector NoesiTEX61.94%63.66%TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%
Notes: No bets today.

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Thursday, May 17, 2012

May 17th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations

VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALKCBrian Matusz vs Luke HochevarKC55.06%53.34%TBD
BOSTBFelix Doubront vs Matt MooreTB54.65%54.14%TBD
CHALAAChris Sale vs C.J. WilsonLAA60.40%64.26%TBD
LANSDAaron Harang vs Edinson VolquezSD54.02%55.64%TBD
FLAATLRicky Nolasco vs Brandon BeachyATL59.60%57.47%TBD
OAKTEXBrandon McCarthy vs Matt HarrisonTEX64.09%68.46%TBD
SEACLEHector Noesi vs Zach McAllisterCLE59.92%66.11%TBD
MINDETP.J. Walters vs Doug FisterDET69.23%68.47%TBD
CINNYNMat Latos vs R.A. DickeyCIN51.34%55.24%TBD
ARICOLTrevor Cahill vs Juan NicasioCOL51.34%NATBD
STLSFAdam Wainwright vs Matt CainSF53.16%52.56%TBD
PITWASJames McDonald vs Jordan ZimmermanWAS58.59%59.93%TBD
NYATORPhil Hughes vs Drew HutchisonNYA50.62%49.79%TBD
MILHOUShaun Marcum vs J.A. HappMIL57.54%64.35%TBD
PHICHNRoy Halladay vs Chris VolstadPHI62.62%64.05%TBD

Current ROI: 10.19%
MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Saturday, May 12, 2012

May 12th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations

VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAATEXC.J. Wilson vs Matt HarrisonTEX60.00%56.28%TBD
CHNMILChris Volstad vs Shaun MarcumMIL64.09%66.38%TBD
CLEBOSJosh Tomlin vs Felix DoubrontBOS56.24%55.66%TBD
COLLANJuan Nicasio vs Aaron HarangLAN55.85%NATBD
KCCHALuke Hochevar vs Jake PeavyCHA57.98%60.51%TBD
WASCINJordan Zimmerman vs Mat LatosCIN54.02%60.67%TBD
SEANYAHector Noesi vs Phil HughesNYA64.35%69.52%TBD
HOUPITJ.A. Happ vs Charlie MortonPIT55.65%63.29%TBD
SDPHIEdinson Volquez vs Roy HalladayPHI65.93%63.47%TBD
TBBALMatt Moore vs Brian MatuszTB53.81%49.22%TBD
NYNFLAR.A. Dickey vs Ricky NolascoFLA55.65%62.94%TBD
TORMINDrew Hutchison vs P.J. WaltersTOR55.26%NATBD
ATLSTLBrandon Beachy vs Adam WainwrightSTL54.95%51.35%TBD
DETOAKDoug Fister vs Brandon McCarthyDET55.85%55.29%TBD
SFARIMatt Cain vs Trevor CahillSF50.62%50.14%TBD

Current ROI: 8.97%

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Sunday, May 06, 2012

May 6th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALBOSTommy Hunter vs Clay BuchholzBOS58.42%55.96%TBD
FLASDRicky Nolasco vs Joe WielandFLA54.23%56.80%TBD
NYAKCPhil Hughes vs Luke HochevarNYA53.60%51.32%TBD
OAKTBTom Milone vs Matt MooreTB60.86%60.40%TBD
TEXCLEYu Darvish vs Ubaldo JimenezTEX61.69%56.36%TBD
TORLAADrew Hutchison vs Jerome WilliamsLAA55.65%60.15%TBD
CHADETDylan Axelrod vs Rick PorcelloDET58.25%62.22%TBD
ARINYNTrevor Cahill vs R.A. DickeyNYN50.62%53.86%TBD
CINPITMat Latos vs Charlie MortonCIN54.02%54.94%TBD
PHIWASCole Hamels vs Jordan ZimmermanWAS52.49%51.29%TBD
STLHOUAdam Wainwright vs J.A. HappSTL58.93%63.32%TBD
LANCHNAaron Harang vs Travis WoodLAN52.04%52.11%TBD
ATLCOLBrandon Beachy vs Juan NicasioATL53.60%NATBD
MILSFShaun Marcum vs Matt CainSF57.89%54.34%TBD
MINSEANick Blackburn vs Hector NoesiSEA54.65%NATBD

Current ROI: 6.89%

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Sunday, April 29, 2012

April 30th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
MILSDRandy Wolf vs Joe WielandSD51.81%51.28%TBD
MINLAANick Blackburn vs C.J. WilsonLAA69.23%70.55%TBD
OAKBOSTom Milone vs Clay BuchholzBOS60.86%56.07%TBD
PITATLJames McDonald vs Mike MinorATL62.62%64.68%TBD
SEATBFelx Hernandez vs Jeremy HellicksonTB54.02%56.87%TBD
ARIFLAPat Corbin vs Mark BuehrleFLA61.01%61.88%TBD
BALNYAJason Hammel vs Hiroki KurodaNYA61.90%64.67%TBD
CHNPHIChris Volstad vs Vance WorleyPHI61.32%64.59%TBD
KCDETLuke Hochevar vs Duane BelowDET58.59%63.18%TBD
TEXTORYu Darvish vs Kyle DrabekTEX58.76%57.25%TBD
NYNHOUR.A. Dickey vs Bud NorrisNYN51.81%53.63%TBD
LANCOLAaron Harang vs Juan NicasioCOL57.17%64.04%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard