Dodger Sims: Pirates

Showing posts with label Pirates. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 04, 2014

Best Lineup - Pittsburgh Pirates

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Pittsburgh Pirates. In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers. I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest. For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections. Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season. In fact, I know that many of the results will not happen due to manager philosophies and veteran favoritism but these are the most optimal lineups that the simulator spit out. In some cases the top couple of lineups had very small differences in results. The starting nine players were taken from MLBDepthCharts website.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics | Astros | Red Sox
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants | Brewers | Dodgers

Pirates 2014 ZIPS Hitting Projections

	K%	BB%	AVE	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Jose Tabata	14.9%	7.4%	0.265	0.329	0.381	0.710	0.312
Starling Marte	23.8%	4.3%	0.265	0.318	0.430	0.748	0.324
Neil Walker	17.7%	8.3%	0.261	0.330	0.418	0.748	0.324
Gaby Sanchez	15.7%	10.0%	0.252	0.333	0.401	0.734	0.322
Andrew McCutchen	17.5%	11.3%	0.288	0.375	0.484	0.859	0.367
Pedro Alvarez	32.0%	8.9%	0.234	0.303	0.465	0.768	0.328
Russell Martin	19.4%	10.5%	0.234	0.326	0.384	0.710	0.315
Jordy Mercer	17.6%	5.7%	0.252	0.302	0.385	0.687	0.295

See the results after the jump

Pirates vs Cardinals - Simulation Results NLDS Game #5

Note: Vegas gives the Cardinals a 59.92% chance of winning this game.

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Pirates	Cardinals	Occurrences	Rank	Pirates	Cardinals	Occurrences
1	1	2	5273	51	1	9	476
2	2	3	4980	52	7	2	472
3	0	1	3661	53	3	8	468
4	3	4	3519	54	2	9	463
5	1	3	3323	55	7	3	436
6	2	1	3175	56	7	1	432
7	0	2	2921	57	7	4	409
8	3	2	2827	58	0	9	406
9	2	4	2639	59	6	0	393
10	0	3	2554	60	7	5	377
11	1	4	2499	61	5	7	372
12	3	1	2140	62	1	10	339
13	4	5	2120	63	4	8	338
14	1	0	2104	64	7	6	329
15	4	3	2073	65	3	9	309
16	0	4	1963	66	5	8	299
17	2	5	1832	67	0	10	298
18	4	2	1832	68	8	2	292
19	1	5	1790	69	2	10	291
20	2	0	1725	70	8	3	288
21	3	5	1578	71	7	0	276
22	4	1	1558	72	8	4	275
23	0	5	1493	73	4	9	255
24	3	0	1326	74	8	1	247
25	1	6	1303	75	7	8	242
26	5	2	1245	76	3	10	238
27	5	3	1213	77	2	11	209
28	3	6	1197	78	8	5	201
29	2	6	1196	79	8	0	196
30	5	6	1195	80	0	11	190
31	5	4	1165	81	1	11	189
32	0	6	1116	82	9	2	178
33	5	1	1015	83	5	9	171
34	4	0	965	84	9	1	170
35	1	7	954	85	8	6	165
36	4	6	857	86	9	3	164
37	0	7	840	87	9	4	160
38	2	7	836	88	3	11	157
39	6	3	813	89	6	8	154
40	6	2	799	90	8	7	154
41	3	7	708	91	4	10	150
42	1	8	695	92	2	12	137
43	6	4	681	93	1	12	125
44	6	5	644	94	6	9	122
45	0	8	630	95	0	12	120
46	5	0	620	96	9	5	116
47	6	1	613	97	9	6	116
48	4	7	609	98	8	9	110
49	2	8	605	99	4	11	103
50	6	7	536	100	3	12	100

Sunday, October 06, 2013

Cardinals vs Pirates - NLDS Game #3 Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Cardinals	Pirates	Occurrences	Rank	Cardinals	Pirates	Occurrences
1	2	3	4469	51	2	8	547
2	1	2	4389	52	7	4	532
3	3	4	3334	53	7	5	494
4	0	1	3146	54	5	7	492
5	1	3	2992	55	3	8	489
6	2	1	2872	56	7	1	476
7	3	2	2834	57	0	8	470
8	2	4	2659	58	6	0	439
9	1	4	2624	59	7	6	427
10	0	2	2564	60	8	3	404
11	0	3	2480	61	8	2	385
12	4	5	2246	62	8	1	361
13	4	3	2160	63	2	9	359
14	2	5	2131	64	1	9	358
15	0	4	2069	65	4	8	341
16	3	1	2046	66	8	4	331
17	1	0	2007	67	5	8	320
18	1	5	1888	68	3	9	317
19	4	2	1885	69	7	0	305
20	3	5	1750	70	0	9	298
21	2	0	1711	71	8	5	295
22	0	5	1653	72	7	8	287
23	5	4	1398	73	9	2	266
24	4	1	1387	74	4	9	238
25	5	3	1375	75	9	3	238
26	1	6	1366	76	6	8	237
27	2	6	1361	77	8	0	230
28	5	2	1289	78	8	6	221
29	5	6	1251	79	8	7	215
30	3	6	1234	80	9	4	210
31	0	6	1142	81	0	10	198
32	3	0	1072	82	1	10	195
33	5	1	1014	83	9	1	191
34	1	7	969	84	5	9	189
35	4	6	967	85	2	10	177
36	6	3	916	86	3	10	168
37	6	4	890	87	10	2	168
38	2	7	877	88	9	5	167
39	4	0	853	89	10	3	153
40	6	5	835	90	6	9	151
41	6	2	815	91	4	10	146
42	0	7	808	92	9	6	139
43	3	7	757	93	9	0	133
44	6	1	724	94	10	1	130
45	4	7	670	95	10	4	125
46	6	7	667	96	2	11	122
47	7	3	638	97	0	11	116
48	5	0	617	98	8	9	111
49	1	8	615	99	1	11	104
50	7	2	606	100	11	2	102

Friday, October 04, 2013

Pirates vs Cardinals - NLDS Game #2 Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Pirates	Cardinals	Occurrences	Rank	Pirates	Cardinals	Occurrences
1	1	2	47488	51	2	8	5936
2	2	3	46126	52	7	4	5384
3	3	4	35998	53	0	8	5198
4	0	1	32110	54	6	0	5095
5	1	3	29872	55	3	8	4935
6	3	2	29245	56	7	1	4809
7	2	1	28892	57	5	7	4800
8	0	2	25235	58	7	5	4586
9	2	4	24689	59	1	9	4335
10	4	5	22910	60	2	9	4154
11	1	4	22583	61	7	6	3966
12	3	1	22562	62	4	8	3705
13	0	3	22119	63	8	3	3535
14	4	3	22065	64	0	9	3485
15	4	2	20544	65	3	9	3433
16	1	0	18798	66	8	2	3430
17	2	5	18428	67	8	4	3271
18	4	1	17354	68	7	0	3129
19	0	4	16930	69	5	8	3073
20	2	0	16766	70	7	8	2901
21	1	5	15985	71	1	10	2899
22	3	5	15804	72	8	1	2862
23	5	2	14615	73	8	5	2804
24	5	3	14508	74	2	10	2764
25	5	4	13940	75	4	9	2484
26	3	0	13796	76	0	10	2378
27	0	5	13208	77	3	10	2377
28	5	6	12807	78	6	8	2185
29	5	1	12093	79	8	6	2112
30	1	6	11997	80	9	3	1933
31	2	6	11739	81	1	11	1884
32	3	6	11565	82	8	0	1842
33	4	0	10818	83	9	4	1824
34	0	6	9723	84	9	2	1819
35	6	2	9685	85	5	9	1803
36	6	3	9509	86	4	10	1793
37	4	6	8974	87	8	7	1793
38	1	7	8696	88	2	11	1767
39	6	4	8569	89	0	11	1600
40	2	7	8301	90	9	5	1598
41	6	5	8033	91	3	11	1533
42	6	1	7929	92	9	1	1519
43	5	0	7886	93	6	9	1404
44	0	7	7182	94	9	6	1268
45	3	7	7084	95	8	9	1206
46	6	7	6503	96	5	10	1204
47	4	7	6251	97	1	12	1202
48	1	8	6063	98	4	11	1148
49	7	3	6053	99	2	12	1116
50	7	2	6018	100	10	3	1023

Wednesday, October 02, 2013

Pirates vs Cardinals - NLDS Game #1 Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Pirates	Cardinals	Occurences	Rank	Pirates	Cardinals	Occurences
1	1	2	52649	51	6	7	5527
2	2	3	47906	52	7	3	5424
3	0	1	37457	53	0	8	5095
4	3	4	33903	54	7	1	4922
5	2	1	32679	55	7	4	4799
6	1	3	30363	56	3	8	4423
7	3	2	29342	57	1	9	4167
8	0	2	28071	58	5	7	4084
9	3	1	24166	59	7	5	4050
10	2	4	24081	60	2	9	3807
11	1	0	23254	61	0	9	3500
12	1	4	23062	62	7	6	3332
13	0	3	22645	63	7	0	3316
14	4	3	20981	64	4	8	3282
15	4	5	20902	65	8	2	3236
16	2	0	20575	66	8	3	3167
17	4	2	20300	67	3	9	3110
18	4	1	18290	68	8	1	2808
19	2	5	17475	69	1	10	2796
20	0	4	17174	70	8	4	2779
21	3	0	16573	71	5	8	2717
22	1	5	16030	72	2	10	2635
23	5	2	14580	73	7	8	2453
24	3	5	14433	74	8	5	2304
25	5	3	13522	75	4	9	2265
26	5	4	12894	76	0	10	2221
27	0	5	12891	77	3	10	2161
28	5	1	12595	78	8	0	1946
29	4	0	12447	79	1	11	1847
30	1	6	11584	80	9	2	1815
31	5	6	11376	81	9	3	1815
32	2	6	10890	82	6	8	1787
33	3	6	10689	83	8	6	1776
34	0	6	9884	84	2	11	1722
35	6	2	8976	85	9	1	1614
36	5	0	8831	86	9	4	1566
37	6	3	8708	87	0	11	1545
38	1	7	8440	88	4	10	1518
39	6	1	8147	89	8	7	1477
40	4	6	8063	90	5	9	1457
41	2	7	8010	91	3	11	1334
42	6	4	7829	92	9	5	1279
43	0	7	7041	93	6	9	1168
44	6	5	6813	94	9	0	1132
45	3	7	6379	95	1	12	1093
46	1	8	6002	96	8	9	1063
47	6	0	5662	97	9	6	1055
48	7	2	5659	98	2	12	1054
49	2	8	5648	99	4	11	1017
50	4	7	5593	100	0	12	981

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Reds vs Pirates - NL WildCard Game Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Reds	Pirates	Occurrences	Rank	Reds	Pirates	Occurrences
1	1	2	62779	51	4	7	4008
2	0	1	57497	52	1	8	3851
3	2	3	48423	53	0	8	3791
4	2	1	42044	54	6	7	3646
5	0	2	39518	55	7	4	3619
6	1	0	36247	56	2	8	3512
7	1	3	33464	57	8	1	3424
8	3	2	31816	58	8	2	3336
9	3	4	29768	59	7	5	2944
10	0	3	29268	60	5	7	2871
11	2	0	27457	61	8	3	2842
12	3	1	26510	62	8	0	2773
13	1	4	23985	63	3	8	2708
14	2	4	23120	64	1	9	2551
15	0	4	19978	65	0	9	2516
16	4	3	19802	66	7	6	2456
17	4	2	19448	67	8	4	2195
18	3	0	17841	68	9	1	2144
19	4	1	17115	69	2	9	2139
20	4	5	16209	70	9	2	2025
21	2	5	15872	71	4	8	1994
22	1	5	15039	72	5	8	1704
23	0	5	13777	73	3	9	1684
24	4	0	13168	74	9	3	1664
25	3	5	13021	75	8	5	1652
26	5	2	12658	76	9	0	1639
27	5	1	11838	77	1	10	1540
28	5	3	11713	78	0	10	1487
29	5	4	10721	79	7	8	1484
30	1	6	9898	80	9	4	1341
31	0	6	9768	81	8	6	1331
32	5	0	9224	82	2	10	1263
33	2	6	9017	83	6	8	1261
34	3	6	8391	84	10	1	1254
35	6	2	8124	85	4	9	1194
36	5	6	8003	86	10	2	1140
37	6	1	7920	87	3	10	1064
38	6	3	7118	88	10	3	995
39	4	6	6503	89	10	0	986
40	1	7	6362	90	8	7	958
41	6	0	6345	91	9	5	941
42	6	4	6238	92	5	9	924
43	0	7	6204	93	1	11	912
44	2	7	5530	94	0	11	842
45	7	1	5358	95	10	4	790
46	6	5	5312	96	2	11	781
47	7	2	5054	97	4	10	752
48	3	7	4523	98	6	9	736
49	7	3	4389	99	11	1	722
50	7	0	4286	100	9	6	702

Saturday, June 15, 2013

Dodgers vs Pirates - June 16th Simulation Results

Friday, June 14, 2013

Dodgers vs Pirates - June 15th Simulation Results

Dodgers vs Pirates - June 14th Simulation Results

Friday, April 05, 2013

Pirates vs Dodgers - April 6th Simulation Results

Here are the simulation results for the April 6th game between the Pirates and the Dodgers.

Pirates vs Dodgers
A.J. Burnett vs Clayton Kershaw

Record: 2-2 (0.500)
RS: 10
RA: 8
Pythag Win%: 0.601
Pythag Pace: 97.3 - 64.7
Pythag Record: 2.40 - 1.60
Record As Favorites: 2-2
Record As Underdogs: 0-0

Simulation Results Notes:
Dodgers win expectancy is 64.84%
Pirates on average score 2.500 runs
Dodgers on average score 3.542 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 6.042

Starting Pitching Lines:
A.J. Burnett - 6.08ip, 6.3so, 2.0bb, 6.0hits, 0.63hrs, 98pitches, 3.454fip
Clayton Kershaw - 6.7ip, 9.1so, 1.8bb, 5.1hits, 0.46hrs, 105pitches, 2.201fip

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Dodgers win expectancy: 69.23%
Over/Under: 6.0 -105o -105u
Notes: Dodgers are the largest Vegas favorite of the day.

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Dodgers 2-1
2. Dodgers 3-2
3. Dodgers 1-0
4. Pirates 2-1
5. Dodgers 4-3
6. Dodgers 3-1
7. Dodgers 2-0
8. Dodgers 3-0
9. Pirates 3-2
10. Dodgers 4-1
11. Dodgers 4-2
12. Pirates 1-0
13. Dodgers 4-0
14. Pirates 3-1
15. Pirates 4-3
16. Dodgers 5-4
17. Pirates 2-0
18. Dodgers 5-1
19. Dodgers 5-2
20. Pirates 4-2
.
.
100. Dodgers 12-0

Pirates vs Dodgers - April 5th Simulation Results

Here are the simulation results for the April 5th game between the Pirates and the Dodgers.

Pirates vs Dodgers
Jonathan Sanchez vs Zack Greinke

Record: 1-2 (0.333)
RS: 7
RA: 8
Pythag Win%: 0.439
Pythag Pace: 71.2 - 90.8
Pythag Record: 1.32 - 1.68
Record As Favorites: 1-2
Record As Underdogs: 0-0

Simulation Results Notes:
Dodgers win expectancy is 67.68%
Pirates on average score 2.728 runs
Dodgers on average score 4.166 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 6.894

Starting Pitching Lines:
Jonathan Sanchez - 5.2ip, 5.2so, 3.3bb, 5.3hits, 0.59hrs, 93pitches, 4.593fip
Zack Greinke - 6.8ip, 8.9so, 1.5bb, 5.4hits, 0.60hrs, 104pitches, 2.381fip

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Dodgers win expectancy: 65.81%
Over/Under: 7.0 +100o -110u
Notes: Dodgers are the largest Vegas favorite of the day.

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Dodgers 3-2
2. Dodgers 2-1
3. Dodgers 4-3
4. Dodgers 3-1
5. Dodgers 1-0
6. Pirates 2-1
7. Pirates 3-2
8. Dodgers 4-2
9. Dodgers 4-1
10. Dodgers 2-0
11. Dodgers 3-0
12. Dodgers 5-4
13. Dodgers 4-0
14. Pirates 4-3
15. Dodgers 5-1
16. Dodgers 5-2
17. Pirates 3-1
18. Pirates 1-0
19. Dodgers 5-3
20. Dodgers 5-0
.
.
99. Dodgers 12-3

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

August 16th - Dodgers vs Pirates Simulation Box Score

                   |    Wins Losses          RS        RA
  Dodgers +-----------------------------------------------------
                   |   53484   46516        395378   341144

Vegas Odds
             Money Line: Pirates -123/+118 or Pirates have a 54.65% chance of winning
             Run Total:      Over 7-1/2 -110, Under 7-1/2 +100

Starting Pitching Matchup

Name	IP	SO	BB	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	HR/9	HR/FB	LOB%	BABIP	LD%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA
A.J. Burnett	138.1	119	42	7.74	2.73	2.20	0.91	13.90%	77.50%	0.273	19.30%	3.32	3.69	3.45	3.50
Joe Blanton	144.1	123	21	7.67	1.31	1.28	1.43	15.00%	66.80%	0.297	22.10%	4.61	3.96	3.45	3.45

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Shane Victorino	4.453	1.299	0.872	0.255	0.069	0.103	0.358	0.385	0.356	0.833	0.346
Mark Ellis	4.39	1.19	0.847	0.248	0.025	0.07	0.429	0.243	0.26	1.028	0.308
Matt Kemp	4.313	1.313	0.863	0.261	0.037	0.151	0.562	0.262	0.288	1.222	0.361
Andre Ethier	4.152	1.191	0.755	0.301	0.01	0.125	0.556	0.212	0.376	1.139	0.35
Hanley Ramirez	4.101	1.202	0.785	0.273	0.025	0.119	0.524	0.235	0.296	1.074	0.348
James Loney	3.994	1.191	0.817	0.282	0.01	0.081	0.497	0.194	0.31	0.733	0.345
Luis Cruz	3.978	1.042	0.701	0.269	0.029	0.043	0.407	0.163	0.192	0.965	0.295
A.J. Ellis	3.655	0.975	0.712	0.191	0.009	0.063	0.393	0.147	0.417	1.052	0.323
Pitchers Spot	3.847	0.457	0.369	0.074	0.003	0.011	0.15	0.086	0.134	2.121	0.137
Pirates
Starling Marte	4.215	1.092	0.793	0.196	0.023	0.103	0.278	0.26	0.289	1.103	0.303
Travis Snider	4.085	1.068	0.732	0.22	0.005	0.11	0.362	0.216	0.286	1.163	0.312
Andrew McCutchen	3.963	1.194	0.782	0.226	0.044	0.142	0.477	0.238	0.353	0.944	0.367
Garrett Jones	3.927	1.122	0.668	0.277	0.029	0.148	0.561	0.186	0.325	0.872	0.356
Neil Walker	3.788	1.127	0.746	0.282	0.019	0.08	0.452	0.174	0.348	0.897	0.352
Pedro Alvarez	3.686	0.993	0.617	0.246	0.011	0.119	0.483	0.116	0.35	1.015	0.337
Rod Barajas	3.651	0.799	0.566	0.168	0.003	0.061	0.314	0.096	0.243	0.928	0.261
Clint Barmes	3.612	0.879	0.614	0.198	0.014	0.053	0.302	0.105	0.161	0.868	0.275
Pitchers Spot	3.541	0.456	0.369	0.073	0.004	0.01	0.126	0.076	0.136	1.767	0.148

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Joe Blanton	6.307	6.826	1.649	6.286	0.624	100.088	3.106
Kenley Jansen	0.483	0.807	0.132	0.320	0.035	7.633	1.612
Brandon League	0.413	0.354	0.110	0.433	0.024	6.482	3.050
Javy Guerra	0.576	0.518	0.211	0.600	0.042	9.369	3.442
Randy Choate	0.256	0.279	0.092	0.245	0.018	4.154	2.992
Ronald Belisario	0.203	0.200	0.060	0.204	0.016	3.227	3.172
Shawn Tolleson	0.418	0.401	0.154	0.445	0.055	6.874	4.080
Jamey Wright	0.189	0.172	0.082	0.196	0.013	3.136	3.577
Pirates
A.J. Burnett	6.310	6.963	1.589	6.678	0.480	101.314	2.736
Joel Hanrahan	0.422	0.538	0.130	0.389	0.029	6.833	2.480
Jason Grilli	0.428	0.631	0.140	0.371	0.034	7.034	2.257
Tony Watson	0.632	0.671	0.215	0.711	0.073	10.530	3.605
Juan Cruz	0.276	0.301	0.122	0.290	0.025	4.683	3.543
Chad Qualls	0.157	0.120	0.048	0.198	0.018	2.579	4.082
Chris Resop	0.690	0.674	0.234	0.781	0.069	11.405	3.567
Jeff Locke	0.349	0.272	0.151	0.442	0.039	5.977	4.387

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

August 15th - Dodgers vs Pirates Simulation Box Score

                  |    Wins   Losses          RS        RA
  Dodgers +-----------------------------------------------------
                   |    60964   39036       452159   324243

Hitting

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Shane Victorino	4.540	1.385	0.921	0.270	0.073	0.121	0.425	0.408	0.355	0.706	0.361
Mark Ellis	4.449	1.307	0.898	0.300	0.024	0.085	0.501	0.278	0.306	0.802	0.337
Matt Kemp	4.367	1.460	0.920	0.327	0.037	0.176	0.671	0.287	0.335	0.965	0.399
Andre Ethier	4.274	1.217	0.843	0.243	0.009	0.122	0.572	0.215	0.324	1.177	0.336
Hanley Ramirez	4.144	1.316	0.819	0.333	0.024	0.140	0.610	0.261	0.349	0.849	0.381
Juan Rivera	4.091	1.200	0.792	0.282	0.005	0.120	0.583	0.191	0.280	0.704	0.345
Luis Cruz	4.043	1.169	0.756	0.333	0.028	0.052	0.437	0.200	0.221	0.759	0.328
A.J. Ellis	3.715	1.081	0.782	0.220	0.009	0.070	0.441	0.171	0.448	0.864	0.348
Pitchers Spot	3.923	0.590	0.466	0.106	0.004	0.014	0.198	0.115	0.153	1.690	0.171
Pirates
Starling Marte	4.208	1.156	0.818	0.238	0.000	0.100	0.290	0.277	0.307	1.037	0.321
Gaby Sanchez	4.078	1.066	0.762	0.213	0.010	0.082	0.338	0.224	0.304	1.023	0.307
Andrew McCutchen	3.951	1.220	0.782	0.262	0.040	0.136	0.505	0.221	0.381	0.889	0.376
Garrett Jones	3.986	1.011	0.680	0.190	0.023	0.118	0.490	0.158	0.254	1.204	0.306
Neil Walker	3.821	1.133	0.751	0.285	0.019	0.078	0.444	0.162	0.317	0.938	0.348
Pedro Alvarez	3.750	0.893	0.614	0.176	0.009	0.094	0.391	0.110	0.272	1.310	0.289
Rod Barajas	3.643	0.828	0.571	0.195	0.003	0.059	0.297	0.108	0.260	0.871	0.273
Clint Barmes	3.611	0.909	0.613	0.230	0.013	0.053	0.300	0.120	0.172	0.820	0.287
Pitchers Spot	3.542	0.486	0.384	0.088	0.003	0.010	0.134	0.086	0.143	1.664	0.158

Pitching

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Clayton Kershaw	6.474	7.173	1.577	6.348	0.538	102.071	2.795
Kenley Jansen	0.504	0.827	0.143	0.345	0.036	8.003	1.702
Brandon League	0.399	0.331	0.112	0.43	0.023	6.308	3.136
Javy Guerra	0.547	0.477	0.216	0.585	0.04	8.999	3.597
Randy Choate	0.255	0.28	0.093	0.238	0.018	4.13	3.004
Ronald Belisario	0.201	0.192	0.061	0.203	0.016	3.197	3.249
Shawn Tolleson	0.367	0.343	0.142	0.398	0.048	6.071	4.18
Jamey Wright	0.148	0.133	0.068	0.156	0.01	2.479	3.676
Pirates
Wandy Rodriguez	6.023	5.124	1.64	7.241	0.573	97.662	3.551
Joel Hanrahan	0.375	0.481	0.11	0.335	0.025	6.008	2.391
Jason Grilli	0.407	0.608	0.129	0.344	0.032	6.652	2.181
Tony Watson	0.619	0.642	0.217	0.694	0.073	10.311	3.713
Juan Cruz	0.286	0.316	0.124	0.3	0.027	4.854	3.533
Chad Qualls	0.175	0.135	0.051	0.214	0.02	2.841	4.037
Chris Resop	0.826	0.815	0.272	0.932	0.087	13.624	3.577
Jeff Locke	0.521	0.395	0.229	0.664	0.064	8.942	4.608

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Dodgers vs Pirates - Most Likely Final Scores

Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Winner	LAN	PIT
1	PIT	2	3
2	LAN	3	2
3	PIT	3	4
4	LAN	4	3
5	PIT	1	2
6	LAN	4	2
7	LAN	2	1
8	LAN	3	1
9	PIT	4	5
10	LAN	5	3
11	LAN	5	2
12	LAN	5	4
13	LAN	4	1
14	LAN	5	1
15	PIT	2	4
16	LAN	6	2
17	PIT	1	3
18	LAN	6	3
19	LAN	2	0
20	LAN	6	1
21	LAN	3	0
22	PIT	5	6
23	LAN	4	0
24	LAN	6	4
25	LAN	7	2
26	LAN	6	5
27	PIT	3	5
28	LAN	5	0
29	LAN	1	0
30	LAN	7	3
31	LAN	7	1
32	PIT	1	4
33	PIT	0	1
34	LAN	6	0
35	PIT	2	5
36	LAN	7	4
37	LAN	8	2
38	LAN	8	1
39	PIT	4	6
40	LAN	8	3
41	LAN	7	5
42	LAN	7	0
43	PIT	0	2
44	PIT	3	6
45	PIT	6	7
46	LAN	7	6
47	PIT	1	5
48	PIT	2	6
49	LAN	9	2
50	LAN	8	4

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Monday, August 13, 2012

August 14th - Dodgers vs Pirates Simulation Box Score

                  |    Wins   Losses         RS        RA
  Dodgers +-------------------------------------------------
                   |    64080    35920      490991   332332

  Vegas Odds
                       Money Line: Dodgers -114/+109 or Dodgers have a 52.49% chance of winning
                       Run Total: Over 8.0 -110, Under 8.0 +100 (or around 8.2 total runs)

                                    Starting Pitching - Tale of The Tape

Name	IP	GS	SO	BB	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	HR/9	HR/FB	LOB%	BABIP	LD%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA
Chad Billingsley	131.1	22	118	39	8.09	2.67	1.42	0.69	7.90%	70.30%	0.321	21.50%	3.84	3.29	3.73	3.70
Kevin Correia	116.1	20	57	34	4.41	2.63	1.66	1.24	13.60%	69.40%	0.267	18.90%	4.49	4.83	4.54	4.70

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Shane Victorino	4.564	1.429	0.947	0.277	0.075	0.129	0.451	0.443	0.406	0.618	0.374
Mark Ellis	4.514	1.335	0.945	0.276	0.028	0.086	0.527	0.296	0.300	0.769	0.337
Matt Kemp	4.427	1.499	0.976	0.299	0.041	0.183	0.701	0.323	0.331	0.920	0.401
Andre Ethier	4.262	1.340	0.842	0.337	0.012	0.151	0.688	0.253	0.423	0.883	0.382
Hanley Ramirez	4.214	1.347	0.871	0.303	0.028	0.144	0.646	0.281	0.339	0.820	0.380
James Loney	4.111	1.302	0.888	0.305	0.011	0.098	0.601	0.237	0.347	0.568	0.367
Luis Cruz	4.106	1.174	0.777	0.310	0.032	0.056	0.506	0.205	0.217	0.733	0.323
A.J. Ellis	3.760	1.107	0.810	0.210	0.010	0.077	0.482	0.183	0.466	0.803	0.353
Pitchers Spot	3.982	0.622	0.501	0.103	0.004	0.015	0.212	0.124	0.154	1.630	0.175
Pirates
Starling Marte	4.258	1.105	0.815	0.202	0.000	0.088	0.264	0.270	0.270	1.085	0.298
Travis Snider	4.122	1.083	0.759	0.225	0.005	0.093	0.342	0.224	0.276	1.124	0.307
Andrew McCutchen	3.994	1.202	0.802	0.232	0.044	0.124	0.456	0.245	0.339	0.916	0.361
Garrett Jones	3.955	1.127	0.685	0.285	0.029	0.128	0.544	0.195	0.315	0.848	0.349
Neil Walker	3.821	1.143	0.762	0.291	0.018	0.072	0.456	0.178	0.334	0.870	0.350
Pedro Alvarez	3.723	1.008	0.637	0.254	0.011	0.106	0.468	0.121	0.336	0.990	0.333
Rod Barajas	3.678	0.812	0.582	0.175	0.003	0.052	0.309	0.099	0.238	0.895	0.260
Clint Barmes	3.644	0.893	0.629	0.202	0.015	0.047	0.302	0.109	0.156	0.846	0.275
Pitchers Spot	3.576	0.473	0.382	0.078	0.004	0.009	0.129	0.078	0.130	1.726	0.150

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Chad Billingsley	6.459	6.627	1.590	6.516	0.528	101.647	2.949
Kenley Jansen	0.516	0.866	0.138	0.344	0.036	8.152	1.541
Brandon League	0.389	0.333	0.105	0.407	0.022	6.107	3.042
Javy Guerra	0.543	0.485	0.202	0.564	0.039	8.827	3.454
Randy Choate	0.257	0.279	0.095	0.244	0.018	4.180	3.056
Ronald Belisario	0.202	0.198	0.060	0.203	0.017	3.217	3.194
Shawn Tolleson	0.379	0.365	0.138	0.400	0.049	6.215	4.037
Jamey Wright	0.158	0.146	0.069	0.166	0.011	2.639	3.577
Pirates
Kevin Correia	5.811	4.210	1.759	7.409	0.601	95.306	4.005
Joel Hanrahan	0.355	0.453	0.108	0.323	0.024	5.728	2.428
Jason Grilli	0.397	0.585	0.131	0.339	0.030	6.514	2.228
Tony Watson	0.618	0.658	0.215	0.685	0.068	10.287	3.537
Juan Cruz	0.296	0.324	0.131	0.311	0.027	5.026	3.539
Chad Qualls	0.181	0.137	0.056	0.226	0.022	2.963	4.198
Chris Resop	0.903	0.881	0.308	1.034	0.094	14.979	3.621
Jeff Locke	0.653	0.498	0.274	0.827	0.073	11.131	4.382

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, August 12, 2012

August 13th - Dodgers vs Pirates Simulation Box Score

                  |     Wins   Losses           RS        RA
  Dodgers +-----------------------------------------------------
                  |    52047    47953       451087   407445

Vegas Odds
                       Money Line: Pirates -123/+118 or 54.65% chance of winning for the Pirates
                       Run Totals: Over 8 -112, Under 8 +102 (approximately 8.2 runs)

Hitters

4.553	1.396	0.936	0.270	0.075	0.115	0.406	0.423	0.344	0.670	0.361
Mark Ellis	4.481	1.293	0.921	0.265	0.028	0.079	0.484	0.278	0.259	0.831	0.325
Matt Kemp	4.401	1.443	0.944	0.292	0.041	0.166	0.640	0.300	0.282	1.003	0.385
Andre Ethier	4.249	1.305	0.825	0.330	0.011	0.140	0.641	0.237	0.364	0.947	0.369
Hanley Ramirez	4.191	1.311	0.856	0.296	0.026	0.133	0.592	0.267	0.290	0.887	0.367
James Loney	4.085	1.273	0.871	0.301	0.010	0.090	0.557	0.221	0.301	0.610	0.357
Luis Cruz	4.068	1.141	0.761	0.297	0.031	0.052	0.467	0.191	0.188	0.790	0.314
A.J. Ellis	3.735	1.078	0.789	0.208	0.010	0.071	0.449	0.170	0.425	0.857	0.343
Pitchers Spot	3.937	0.578	0.468	0.094	0.004	0.012	0.189	0.111	0.131	1.758	0.163
Pirates
Starling Marte	4.309	1.210	0.878	0.213	0.000	0.119	0.338	0.303	0.299	0.863	0.326
Travis Snider	4.171	1.200	0.821	0.243	0.006	0.130	0.440	0.254	0.303	0.896	0.340
Andrew McCutchen	4.039	1.310	0.852	0.245	0.047	0.166	0.567	0.273	0.371	0.735	0.393
Garrett Jones	4.000	1.223	0.720	0.302	0.030	0.171	0.666	0.217	0.343	0.687	0.380
Neil Walker	3.860	1.232	0.811	0.305	0.020	0.095	0.539	0.199	0.368	0.708	0.376
Pedro Alvarez	3.759	1.106	0.684	0.269	0.012	0.141	0.570	0.142	0.372	0.801	0.366
Rod Barajas	3.735	0.887	0.623	0.187	0.004	0.073	0.373	0.117	0.259	0.732	0.282
Clint Barmes	3.713	0.971	0.676	0.220	0.016	0.059	0.352	0.128	0.172	0.692	0.295
Pitchers Spot	3.643	0.569	0.460	0.092	0.005	0.011	0.165	0.099	0.146	1.403	0.175

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Aaron Harang	5.934	4.499	1.713	6.919	0.730	95.112	4.148
Kenley Jansen	0.457	0.727	0.134	0.325	0.036	7.286	1.918
Brandon League	0.398	0.328	0.110	0.421	0.024	6.260	3.155
Javy Guerra	0.580	0.522	0.212	0.591	0.041	9.379	3.408
Randy Choate	0.289	0.324	0.090	0.273	0.019	4.627	2.761
Ronald Belisario	0.232	0.228	0.068	0.236	0.019	3.697	3.158
Shawn Tolleson	0.582	0.585	0.172	0.610	0.075	9.363	3.755
Jamey Wright	0.325	0.305	0.132	0.333	0.022	5.349	3.426
Pirates
Jeff Karstens	6.148	5.077	1.485	7.444	0.557	98.633	3.451
Joel Hanrahan	0.407	0.516	0.125	0.375	0.027	6.576	2.458
Jason Grilli	0.395	0.582	0.129	0.341	0.032	6.484	2.279
Tony Watson	0.612	0.647	0.213	0.683	0.068	10.201	3.574
Juan Cruz	0.281	0.307	0.124	0.295	0.026	4.770	3.544
Chad Qualls	0.171	0.129	0.052	0.218	0.019	2.816	4.082
Chris Resop	0.751	0.735	0.255	0.864	0.076	12.465	3.575
Jeff Locke	0.470	0.360	0.200	0.597	0.053	8.031	4.419

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, September 15, 2011

September 16th Simulations

Dodger Sims is Cruising... No simulations until 9/25 ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Pirates	Dodgers	J.Locke vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	64.09%	59.13%	TBD
Rangers	Mariners	C.Wilson vs B.Beavan	Rangers	65.10%	67.54%	TBD
TB	BOS	James Shields vs Josh Beckett	BOS	TBD	64.227	TBD
SF	COL	Madison Bumgarner vs Alex White	SF	TBD	51.086	TBD
STL	PHI	Jaime Garcia vs Vance Worley	PHI	TBD	50.504	TBD
NYN	ATL	Chris Capuano vs Derek Lowe	ATL	TBD	57.929	TBD
MIL	CIN	Randy Wolf vs Bronson Arroyo	CIN	TBD	57.018	TBD
HOU	CHN	Wandy Rodriguez vs Matt Garza	CHN	TBD	67.369	TBD
CHA	KC	Phil Humber vs Felipe Paulino	KC	TBD	52.213	TBD
NYA	TOR	C.C. Sabathia vs Brett Cecil	NYA	TBD	64.965	TBD
CLE	MIN	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Kevin Slowey	MIN	TBD	51.428	TBD
DET	OAK	Doug Fister vs Trevor Cahill	DET	TBD	53.284	TBD
FLA	WAS	Javier Vazquez vs John Lannan	WAS	TBD	54.959	TBD
LAA	BAL	Dan Haren vs Tommy Hunter	LAA	TBD	54.674	TBD
ARI	SD	Wade Miley vs Tim Stauffer	SD	TBD	50.635	TBD

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September 15th Simulations

Road To Nowhere Game ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Pirates	Dodgers	R.Ohlendorf vs D.Eveland	Dodgers	64.29%	54.10%	PIT 6-2
FLA	PHI	Anibal Sanchez vs Kyle Kendrick	PHI	TBD	54.327	TBD
FLA	PHI	Alex Sanabia vs Cliff Lee	PHI	TBD	76.013	TBD
DET	OAK	Max Scherzer vs Brandon McCarthy	OAK	TBD	55.168	TBD
TB	BOS	Jeremy Hellickson vs Kyle Weiland	BOS	TBD	59.831	TBD
WAS	NYN	Tommy Milone vs Chris Schwinden	NYN	TBD	53.337	TBD
SF	COL	Ryan Vogelsong vs Jhoulys Chacin	COL	TBD	61.087	TBD
CLE	TEX	Fausto Carmona vs Alexi Ogando	TEX	TBD	66.563	TBD
CHA	KC	Mark Buehrle vs Jeff Francis	KC	TBD	51.617	TBD
CHN	CIN	Randy Wells vs Homer Bailey	CIN	TBD	63.294	TBD

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Thursday, September 01, 2011

September 1st Simulations

Dodgers Bus In To Pittsburgh ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Pirates	D.Eveland vs B.Lincoln	Pirates	54.75%	54.06%	LAN 6-4
KC	DET	Danny Duffy vs Jacob Turner	DET	TBD	62.839	TBD
TB	TEX	Jeff Niemann vs C.J. Wilson	TEX	TBD	64.697	TBD
FLA	NYN	Clay Hensley vs Miguel Batista	NYN	TBD	56.989	TBD
PHI	CIN	Vance Worley vs Mike Leake	PHI	TBD	52.137	TBD
STL	MIL	Brandon Dickson vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	TBD	56.231	TBD
NYA	BOS	A.J. Burnett vs Jon Lester	BOS	TBD	60.186	TBD
WAS	ATL	Chien-Ming Wang vs Tim Hudson	ATL	TBD	67.237	TBD
TOR	BAL	Luis Perez vs Tommy Hunter	BAL	TBD	59.567	TBD
LAA	SEA	Ervin Santana vs Charles Furbush	LAA	TBD	54.286	TBD
OAK	CLE	Gio Gonzalez vs Fausto Carmona	OAK	TBD	50.096	TBD

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Wednesday, May 11, 2011

May 12th Simulations

Pi Rates Squared ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Pirates	J.Garland vs C.Morton	Pirates	54.65%	58.24%	TBD
Mets	Rockies	J.Niese vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	63.17%	59.23%	TBD
DBacks	Giants	D.Hudson vs M.Cain	Giants	56.99%	53.57%	TBD
Nationals	Braves	J.Zimmerman vs D.Lowe	Braves	63.70%	60.94%	TBD
Royals	Yankees	S.O'Sullivan vs I.Nova	Yankees	64.85%	72.30%	TBD
Mariners	Orioles	J.Vargas vs Z.Britton	Orioles	59.43%	59.24%	TBD
Cardinals	Cubs	J.Garcia vs C.Coleman	Cardinals	57.72%	64.52%	TBD
Rays	Indians	J.Shields vs J.Masterson	Indians	52.27%	56.41%	TBD

Seasonal Money Line ROI: -3.74%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +8.38%

Pitching Machines

Rank	Winner	LAN	PIT
1	PIT	2	3
2	LAN	3	2
3	PIT	3	4
4	LAN	4	3
5	PIT	1	2
6	LAN	4	2
7	LAN	2	1
8	LAN	3	1
9	PIT	4	5
10	LAN	5	3
11	LAN	5	2
12	LAN	5	4
13	LAN	4	1
14	LAN	5	1
15	PIT	2	4
16	LAN	6	2
17	PIT	1	3
18	LAN	6	3
19	LAN	2	0
20	LAN	6	1
21	LAN	3	0
22	PIT	5	6
23	LAN	4	0
24	LAN	6	4
25	LAN	7	2
26	LAN	6	5
27	PIT	3	5
28	LAN	5	0
29	LAN	1	0
30	LAN	7	3
31	LAN	7	1
32	PIT	1	4
33	PIT	0	1
34	LAN	6	0
35	PIT	2	5
36	LAN	7	4
37	LAN	8	2
38	LAN	8	1
39	PIT	4	6
40	LAN	8	3
41	LAN	7	5
42	LAN	7	0
43	PIT	0	2
44	PIT	3	6
45	PIT	6	7
46	LAN	7	6
47	PIT	1	5
48	PIT	2	6
49	LAN	9	2
50	LAN	8	4

Rank	Winner	LAN	PIT
1	PIT	2	3
2	LAN	3	2
3	PIT	3	4
4	LAN	4	3
5	PIT	1	2
6	LAN	4	2
7	LAN	2	1
8	LAN	3	1
9	PIT	4	5
10	LAN	5	3
11	LAN	5	2
12	LAN	5	4
13	LAN	4	1
14	LAN	5	1
15	PIT	2	4
16	LAN	6	2
17	PIT	1	3
18	LAN	6	3
19	LAN	2	0
20	LAN	6	1
21	LAN	3	0
22	PIT	5	6
23	LAN	4	0
24	LAN	6	4
25	LAN	7	2
26	LAN	6	5
27	PIT	3	5
28	LAN	5	0
29	LAN	1	0
30	LAN	7	3
31	LAN	7	1
32	PIT	1	4
33	PIT	0	1
34	LAN	6	0
35	PIT	2	5
36	LAN	7	4
37	LAN	8	2
38	LAN	8	1
39	PIT	4	6
40	LAN	8	3
41	LAN	7	5
42	LAN	7	0
43	PIT	0	2
44	PIT	3	6
45	PIT	6	7
46	LAN	7	6
47	PIT	1	5
48	PIT	2	6
49	LAN	9	2
50	LAN	8	4

Tuesday, March 04, 2014

Tuesday, October 08, 2013

Sunday, October 06, 2013

Friday, October 04, 2013

Wednesday, October 02, 2013

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Saturday, June 15, 2013

Friday, June 14, 2013

Friday, April 05, 2013

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Monday, August 13, 2012

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Dodger Sims is Cruising... No simulations until 9/25 ...

Road To Nowhere Game ...

Thursday, September 01, 2011

Dodgers Bus In To Pittsburgh ...

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Pi Rates Squared ...

Rank	Winner	LAN	PIT
1	PIT	2	3
2	LAN	3	2
3	PIT	3	4
4	LAN	4	3
5	PIT	1	2
6	LAN	4	2
7	LAN	2	1
8	LAN	3	1
9	PIT	4	5
10	LAN	5	3
11	LAN	5	2
12	LAN	5	4
13	LAN	4	1
14	LAN	5	1
15	PIT	2	4
16	LAN	6	2
17	PIT	1	3
18	LAN	6	3
19	LAN	2	0
20	LAN	6	1
21	LAN	3	0
22	PIT	5	6
23	LAN	4	0
24	LAN	6	4
25	LAN	7	2
26	LAN	6	5
27	PIT	3	5
28	LAN	5	0
29	LAN	1	0
30	LAN	7	3
31	LAN	7	1
32	PIT	1	4
33	PIT	0	1
34	LAN	6	0
35	PIT	2	5
36	LAN	7	4
37	LAN	8	2
38	LAN	8	1
39	PIT	4	6
40	LAN	8	3
41	LAN	7	5
42	LAN	7	0
43	PIT	0	2
44	PIT	3	6
45	PIT	6	7
46	LAN	7	6
47	PIT	1	5
48	PIT	2	6
49	LAN	9	2
50	LAN	8	4