Pirates vs Cardinals - NLDS Game #1 Simulation Results

                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Pirates	Cardinals	Occurences		Rank	Pirates	Cardinals	Occurences
1	1	2	52649		51	6	7	5527
2	2	3	47906		52	7	3	5424
3	0	1	37457		53	0	8	5095
4	3	4	33903		54	7	1	4922
5	2	1	32679		55	7	4	4799
6	1	3	30363		56	3	8	4423
7	3	2	29342		57	1	9	4167
8	0	2	28071		58	5	7	4084
9	3	1	24166		59	7	5	4050
10	2	4	24081		60	2	9	3807
11	1	0	23254		61	0	9	3500
12	1	4	23062		62	7	6	3332
13	0	3	22645		63	7	0	3316
14	4	3	20981		64	4	8	3282
15	4	5	20902		65	8	2	3236
16	2	0	20575		66	8	3	3167
17	4	2	20300		67	3	9	3110
18	4	1	18290		68	8	1	2808
19	2	5	17475		69	1	10	2796
20	0	4	17174		70	8	4	2779
21	3	0	16573		71	5	8	2717
22	1	5	16030		72	2	10	2635
23	5	2	14580		73	7	8	2453
24	3	5	14433		74	8	5	2304
25	5	3	13522		75	4	9	2265
26	5	4	12894		76	0	10	2221
27	0	5	12891		77	3	10	2161
28	5	1	12595		78	8	0	1946
29	4	0	12447		79	1	11	1847
30	1	6	11584		80	9	2	1815
31	5	6	11376		81	9	3	1815
32	2	6	10890		82	6	8	1787
33	3	6	10689		83	8	6	1776
34	0	6	9884		84	2	11	1722
35	6	2	8976		85	9	1	1614
36	5	0	8831		86	9	4	1566
37	6	3	8708		87	0	11	1545
38	1	7	8440		88	4	10	1518
39	6	1	8147		89	8	7	1477
40	4	6	8063		90	5	9	1457
41	2	7	8010		91	3	11	1334
42	6	4	7829		92	9	5	1279
43	0	7	7041		93	6	9	1168
44	6	5	6813		94	9	0	1132
45	3	7	6379		95	1	12	1093
46	1	8	6002		96	8	9	1063
47	6	0	5662		97	9	6	1055
48	7	2	5659		98	2	12	1054
49	2	8	5648		99	4	11	1017
50	4	7	5593		100	0	12	981

Pirates vs Dodgers - April 6th Simulation Results

Here are the simulation results for the April 6th game between the Pirates and the Dodgers.

Pirates vs Dodgers
A.J. Burnett vs Clayton Kershaw

Record: 2-2 (0.500)
RS: 10
RA: 8
Pythag Win%: 0.601
Pythag Pace: 97.3 - 64.7
Pythag Record: 2.40 - 1.60
Record As Favorites: 2-2
Record As Underdogs: 0-0

Simulation Results Notes:
Dodgers win expectancy is 64.84%
Pirates on average score 2.500 runs
Dodgers on average score 3.542 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 6.042

Starting Pitching Lines:
A.J. Burnett - 6.08ip, 6.3so, 2.0bb, 6.0hits, 0.63hrs, 98pitches, 3.454fip
Clayton Kershaw - 6.7ip, 9.1so, 1.8bb, 5.1hits, 0.46hrs, 105pitches, 2.201fip

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Dodgers win expectancy: 69.23%
Over/Under: 6.0 -105o -105u
Notes: Dodgers are the largest Vegas favorite of the day.

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Dodgers 2-1
2. Dodgers 3-2
3. Dodgers 1-0
4. Pirates 2-1
5. Dodgers 4-3
6. Dodgers 3-1
7. Dodgers 2-0
8. Dodgers 3-0
9. Pirates 3-2
10. Dodgers 4-1
11. Dodgers 4-2
12. Pirates 1-0
13. Dodgers 4-0
14. Pirates 3-1
15. Pirates 4-3
16. Dodgers 5-4
17. Pirates 2-0
18. Dodgers 5-1
19. Dodgers 5-2
20. Pirates 4-2
.
.
100. Dodgers 12-0

August 16th - Dodgers vs Pirates Simulation Box Score

                   |    Wins    Losses          RS         RA
  Dodgers  +-----------------------------------------------------
                   |   53484   46516        395378   341144

  Vegas Odds
             Money Line:  Pirates -123/+118 or Pirates have a 54.65% chance of winning
             Run Total:      Over 7-1/2 -110, Under 7-1/2 +100

Starting Pitching Matchup

Name	IP	SO	BB	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	HR/9	HR/FB	LOB%	BABIP	LD%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA
A.J. Burnett	138.1	119	42	7.74	2.73	2.20	0.91	13.90%	77.50%	0.273	19.30%	3.32	3.69	3.45	3.50
Joe Blanton	144.1	123	21	7.67	1.31	1.28	1.43	15.00%	66.80%	0.297	22.10%	4.61	3.96	3.45	3.45

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Shane Victorino	4.453	1.299	0.872	0.255	0.069	0.103	0.358	0.385	0.356	0.833	0.346
Mark Ellis	4.39	1.19	0.847	0.248	0.025	0.07	0.429	0.243	0.26	1.028	0.308
Matt Kemp	4.313	1.313	0.863	0.261	0.037	0.151	0.562	0.262	0.288	1.222	0.361
Andre Ethier	4.152	1.191	0.755	0.301	0.01	0.125	0.556	0.212	0.376	1.139	0.35
Hanley Ramirez	4.101	1.202	0.785	0.273	0.025	0.119	0.524	0.235	0.296	1.074	0.348
James Loney	3.994	1.191	0.817	0.282	0.01	0.081	0.497	0.194	0.31	0.733	0.345
Luis Cruz	3.978	1.042	0.701	0.269	0.029	0.043	0.407	0.163	0.192	0.965	0.295
A.J. Ellis	3.655	0.975	0.712	0.191	0.009	0.063	0.393	0.147	0.417	1.052	0.323
Pitchers Spot	3.847	0.457	0.369	0.074	0.003	0.011	0.15	0.086	0.134	2.121	0.137
Pirates
Starling Marte	4.215	1.092	0.793	0.196	0.023	0.103	0.278	0.26	0.289	1.103	0.303
Travis Snider	4.085	1.068	0.732	0.22	0.005	0.11	0.362	0.216	0.286	1.163	0.312
Andrew McCutchen	3.963	1.194	0.782	0.226	0.044	0.142	0.477	0.238	0.353	0.944	0.367
Garrett Jones	3.927	1.122	0.668	0.277	0.029	0.148	0.561	0.186	0.325	0.872	0.356
Neil Walker	3.788	1.127	0.746	0.282	0.019	0.08	0.452	0.174	0.348	0.897	0.352
Pedro Alvarez	3.686	0.993	0.617	0.246	0.011	0.119	0.483	0.116	0.35	1.015	0.337
Rod Barajas	3.651	0.799	0.566	0.168	0.003	0.061	0.314	0.096	0.243	0.928	0.261
Clint Barmes	3.612	0.879	0.614	0.198	0.014	0.053	0.302	0.105	0.161	0.868	0.275
Pitchers Spot	3.541	0.456	0.369	0.073	0.004	0.01	0.126	0.076	0.136	1.767	0.148

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Joe Blanton	6.307	6.826	1.649	6.286	0.624	100.088	3.106
Kenley Jansen	0.483	0.807	0.132	0.320	0.035	7.633	1.612
Brandon League	0.413	0.354	0.110	0.433	0.024	6.482	3.050
Javy Guerra	0.576	0.518	0.211	0.600	0.042	9.369	3.442
Randy Choate	0.256	0.279	0.092	0.245	0.018	4.154	2.992
Ronald Belisario	0.203	0.200	0.060	0.204	0.016	3.227	3.172
Shawn Tolleson	0.418	0.401	0.154	0.445	0.055	6.874	4.080
Jamey Wright	0.189	0.172	0.082	0.196	0.013	3.136	3.577
Pirates
A.J. Burnett	6.310	6.963	1.589	6.678	0.480	101.314	2.736
Joel Hanrahan	0.422	0.538	0.130	0.389	0.029	6.833	2.480
Jason Grilli	0.428	0.631	0.140	0.371	0.034	7.034	2.257
Tony Watson	0.632	0.671	0.215	0.711	0.073	10.530	3.605
Juan Cruz	0.276	0.301	0.122	0.290	0.025	4.683	3.543
Chad Qualls	0.157	0.120	0.048	0.198	0.018	2.579	4.082
Chris Resop	0.690	0.674	0.234	0.781	0.069	11.405	3.567
Jeff Locke	0.349	0.272	0.151	0.442	0.039	5.977	4.387

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