Showing posts with label 2013 Simulations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2013 Simulations. Show all posts

Friday, October 25, 2013

Red Sox vs Cardinals - World Series Game Three Simulation Results




                                       Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankRed SoxCardinalsOccurrencesRankRed SoxCardinalsOccurrences
1234294851755988
2123938652475746
3343457953825340
4323443754835065
5213166955704965
6432755856764930
7312597257574921
8132525558814567
9422495459844314
10452328560284309
11242319961074220
12012184862383973
13412050463183933
14141989464853770
15101895365923396
16201840766483313
17521829567933118
18531803068803091
19021786969783048
20541779170862962
21251675071912951
22351621372582838
23301613173942740
24031591174082668
25511474075292637
26151416876392536
27561320777192466
28401271778872355
29041251679682297
30631247580952069
31621218981902041
32641105882492002
332610874831021900
343610684841031839
356110537851011815
36651010886961761
37509662872101657
38469613881041615
3916958989091598
4005930390591591
41728209913101532
42737940921101475
4374745893691314
44717135941051314
45607028951001238
4667686296971230
4727678897891202
48376475984101178
49176343991121149
500663121001131092

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Cardinals vs Red Sox - World Series Game #2 Simulation




                                     Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankCardinalsRed SoxOccurrencesRankCardinalsRed SoxOccurrences
12345545106629
21241575275570
33438035357565
43230295483558
52128105576522
61326295681490
74525965782483
84324915870470
93123925938466
102423806018463
110123266184442
124222786228431
131418646307403
140218556448379
154118056578351
162517366685351
175417146793334
185316906858331
193516846980322
205216577092322
212015417139299
220315237291298
231015167386297
245614977429286
255114477568274
263014177608263
271513617719259
280411867895256
294011537949252
306211528087248
313611498194248
3263113682102213
3326112283103203
3464102984210202
3561102385101198
364610198690193
376598287310179
38169268809177
395092589104175
40728589059171
410585491110170
42738059269169
43677829389155
447175094410150
45277089596150
467468596105146
473768397100135
48476719897126
491765199211123
5060639100510120

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Dodgers vs Cardinals - NLCS Game 6 Simulation Results




                                        Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersCardinalsOccurrencesRankDodgersCardinalsOccurrences
1125564451273958
2234739952173864
3214648753833677
4014089954673640
5323939255373525
6103700856753487
7313555857473011
8203424258912871
9343140159072784
10302974860842772
11412659761762716
12422619462922708
13432489363902676
14132472564282414
15022446765572296
16402278266182281
17241865467932213
18511843868852054
19521779769381993
204517141701011771
21031686071081766
22141656072481679
235016291731001617
24531530574941580
25541325875191513
26611239476781504
272511494771021499
28041137778291447
29621135279861425
30601102880581321
31351082981391283
321510001821031239
3363968983871181
3456820184951105
3571781785091085
3664761686681013
37057334871111009
387071348849925
3972711789110916
4026674590104906
4165639491112875
4236635092210870
4316619993110847
447359849496808
4546548695113770
468150639659711
4774468297310698
4806451198010648
4982450799105603
50804448100410568

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Cardinals vs Dodgers - NLCS Game 5 Simulation Results



                                      Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankCardinalsDodgersOccurrencesRankCardinalsDodgersOccurrences
1234771751605803
2124649152745517
3343673453285216
4213163454185031
5323155655754969
6012897456574517
7132848157384446
8242443358764316
9312407359824254
10432407360704063
11452330061833917
12022309462813825
13142265863083790
14422129264483514
15032081865843485
16101950166293222
17201787867193154
18251787168782988
19411734769852869
20151634870922760
21041634471392751
22351617972582712
23541520073802675
24531511974932551
25301488375912425
26521462576092381
27561296477862377
28511242478492100
29051204179942087
30261153380682072
314011337812101981
32161129982871977
333610786831101916
3462987184951814
3563976085901720
36469252863101691
37649013871021659
38618731881031611
3906864289591537
40658585901011487
4150804391961419
42277781920101393
4317755393691278
44376874941041272
45736445954101264
4672631996891244
47676308972111167
48475914981111150
4971587699971067
500758111003111039

Monday, October 14, 2013

Cardinals vs Dodgers - Simulation Results NLCS Game #4




                                           Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankCardinalsDodgersOccurrencesRankCardinalsDodgersOccurrences
1234759351475743
2124584352705119
3343754653755073
4323288954824861
5213217555574685
6012699356814659
7132624257834645
8312577758284494
9432489759764422
10452371560074222
11242327061184010
12422314862843910
13022016663383894
14142003864483309
15101962865803294
16411942166853151
17201899567923124
18031656468783084
19301654669913048
20521620870932906
21251618571582835
22351618072082710
23531617073292671
24541605574862535
25511454375192514
26151402076392456
27561341377942441
28401338878682209
29041268179902171
30621132880872043
316310590811022034
32261057082492001
33361053783951925
346110135841011837
35509768851031737
36649653862101716
3716942887091704
38059345883101559
39469132891101506
4065888290591484
41727527911041482
4260723592961427
4371713393891369
44737039941001353
4527674995691222
46676682964101202
4706651297971172
48376264981121167
49176150991111128
507461371001051119

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Cardinals vs Dodgers - NLCS Game #3 Simulation Results




                                     Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankCardinalsDodgersOccurrencesRankCardinalsDodgersOccurrences
11255885117409
22348375227402
32143495383386
40141085437375
53236165567366
63132975675365
71032645747356
83432235892321
92030415990320
101326546091319
114225916184304
123025216257286
130225116307285
144324646476261
154123796528253
164020256693251
172420156785248
180318306818227
194518236938220
2051179070101217
2114174671100192
2252168472102184
235315717394174
245014237408169
255414197548162
262512737686160
276112137778158
280412097829156
293511807919151
3015114980103137
3162114281111132
32609988287131
33639788358126
34569578495119
35648138539117
360579486104117
377178887112115
387276988110110
393673189113107
40167259049102
41266729168101
4270670920994
43656339310591
4473606949690
45466059531080
46815579621078
47065369712073
4874497989768
49824629910668
508045110012268

Friday, October 11, 2013

Dodgers vs Cardinals - NLCS Game #1 Simulation Results



Note: Vegas has the Dodgers as 55.6% favorites in Game #1 (ML -130, +120)

                                       Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersCardinalsOccurrencesRankDodgersCardinalsOccurrences
12344025117569
21240595237566
33435315381555
43233765483551
52131925576536
64327495647510
73126955706476
84224855857459
94523845984432
101323526080395
110122636128386
122421096292379
134121076385378
141019416418363
155218376507358
163018216691351
172018196738342
185318166878324
195418016948323
201417457058310
215116807193293
220216297286292
230315277329291
244015167495276
253514577594268
262514457687246
275613227790231
286212347819229
291512297968221
306311978008220
3161118881102219
325011258249215
336410878339211
3404107684101203
3565104085103187
362693286210184
373692487104171
387386988310167
39728658959162
406083090112153
41468039109152
427179592110150
43167889396149
44057649489141
45677329597136
467472096100136
47276359798129
487558698105129
498258399211120
5070573100410116

Wednesday, October 09, 2013

Tigers vs Athletics - Simulation Results ALDS Game #5




Note: Vegas favors the Tigers, with a 50.4% win probability

                              Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankTigersAthleticsOccurrencesRankTigersAthleticsOccurrences
1234785051075421
2124699552755267
3343571753475221
4213506754184650
5323473355284638
6132791156764490
7012776857574434
8432576958824302
9312511659834064
10242285760704026
11452256761814000
12422243962383956
13022185563083590
14102135664843547
15142081165293182
16031951866483170
17201892967853149
18411829368193113
19541633669783068
20531601970922835
21301573371802751
22251553172932720
23521534273912611
24351519974392607
25041435775582586
26151424976862549
27561252477092363
28511221178942206
29401110979682184
30051071380872130
31631027281491965
322610170822101951
33169911831101864
3436966984951860
35629664851021843
3664963086901809
37659223873101759
38468681881011746
39618467891031745
40507984900101552
4106759491591530
4217701792961507
43277004931041421
4467653994891350
45726524954101260
4673622096971240
47376075971001193
4874590098691191
49715778991111175
506057701001051149

Tuesday, October 08, 2013

Pirates vs Cardinals - Simulation Results NLDS Game #5



Note: Vegas gives the Cardinals a 59.92% chance of winning this game.

                                        Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankPiratesCardinalsOccurrences RankPiratesCardinalsOccurrences
1125273 5119476
2234980 5272472
3013661 5338468
4343519 5429463
5133323 5573436
6213175 5671432
7022921 5774409
8322827 5809406
9242639 5960393
10032554 6075377
11142499 6157372
12312140 62110339
13452120 6348338
14102104 6476329
15432073 6539309
16041963 6658299
17251832 67010298
18421832 6882292
19151790 69210291
20201725 7083288
21351578 7170276
22411558 7284275
23051493 7349255
24301326 7481247
25161303 7578242
26521245 76310238
27531213 77211209
28361197 7885201
29261196 7980196
30561195 80011190
31541165 81111189
32061116 8292178
33511015 8359171
3440965 8491170
3517954 8586165
3646857 8693164
3707840 8794160
3827836 88311157
3963813 8968154
4062799 9087154
4137708 91410150
4218695 92212137
4364681 93112125
4465644 9469122
4508630 95012120
4650620 9695116
4761613 9796116
4847609 9889110
4928605 99411103
5067536 100312100

Red Sox vs Rays - ALDS Game #4 Simulation Results




                            Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankRed SoxRaysOccurrencesRankRed SoxRaysOccurrences
12337225147686
23435405276677
31230635384671
43228775457655
54526415505648
64325955681616
74223465717603
82122895885566
92422655993514
103122156070500
111320396192495
125320076206481
135219566338481
145418566494464
154117996528441
163517406686439
171416206748437
185616176878425
192516086991409
206315487058399
215114887195362
226214487207353
230114037380342
246412867468337
252012817587337
260212337618336
2765121877102329
283012097839301
291512087929292
304611678096290
3136116581103284
326111548219272
3310113483104270
347210728449269
3503105385101236
367310498690230
3740103287310222
382610198859222
397497289105221
40679009097202
41718769169196
42048359208191
43508229389189
441680294112185
457579595210183
463776496113180
47277499779163
488373298106163
498270299110158
5060694100410156

Athletics vs Tigers - ALDS Game #4 Simulation Results




                                  Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankAthleticsTigersOccurrencesRankAthleticsTigersOccurrences
12343325129595
23439915276591
31235385378585
44528875440581
53225345548571
61324385661569
72424375708554
84322485872550
92121375919549
101420566073538
113519586139481
122518776258481
1356184463210468
1415170164110449
1503163965310419
164216386650408
175416286709406
183116126849394
190115566968374
200215057083372
210414167171367
225314007282359
232613777384357
243613617485357
254612047587353
261611917659340
274111527786336
2865111778111327
2905110479010315
305210778060312
3167106881311302
3264102982410299
331799083211283
34379738481278
35279728589258
36109688669253
37069188794241
382089488011235
394787889411235
40638339093233
41307879192230
422877492212225
43577679379219
44627619470211
455174695112205
46187319696191
473872297510186
48076839895185
49756449997185
5074606100312182

Monday, October 07, 2013

Braves vs Dodgers - NLDS Game #4 Simulation Results



Notes: I had trouble calibrating what input stats to give Freddie Garcia. Vegas says the Dodgers have a 67.2% chance of winning this game. Best to go with them on this one.


Sunday, October 06, 2013

Braves vs Dodgers - NLDS Game #3 Simulation Results




                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankBravesDodgersOccurrences RankBravesDodgersOccurrences
1125813 5167473
2235395 5273459
3013846 5371449
4343696 5474420
5213611 5538382
6323411 5608355
7133354 5757351
8022885 5875350
9242661 5919307
10142574 6070305
11032564 6182305
12312478 6229303
13102425 6376286
14432402 6448275
15422123 6583271
16452044 6609270
17201974 6781265
18041972 6839255
19251868 6958232
20151775 7084214
21411775 7192213
22351534 72110211
23301531 7385193
24051486 7478186
25531472 7580185
26541342 7693178
27521339 77210170
28161220 7849169
29261216 7991157
30511109 8086140
31401076 8168139
32361063 82310131
33561055 8394130
3406992 84010127
3562824 8587121
3617798 8695117
3727773 8790114
3846770 88011108
3964759 89410107
4063752 90102102
4150677 91211100
4265675 925993
4361661 9311191
4437626 9410191
4507604 956986
4618525 9610486
4747499 9731182
4828488 9810381
4972482 999679
5060474 10021269

Cardinals vs Pirates - NLDS Game #3 Simulation Results




                                       Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankCardinalsPiratesOccurrences RankCardinalsPiratesOccurrences
1234469 5128547
2124389 5274532
3343334 5375494
4013146 5457492
5132992 5538489
6212872 5671476
7322834 5708470
8242659 5860439
9142624 5976427
10022564 6083404
11032480 6182385
12452246 6281361
13432160 6329359
14252131 6419358
15042069 6548341
16312046 6684331
17102007 6758320
18151888 6839317
19421885 6970305
20351750 7009298
21201711 7185295
22051653 7278287
23541398 7392266
24411387 7449238
25531375 7593238
26161366 7668237
27261361 7780230
28521289 7886221
29561251 7987215
30361234 8094210
31061142 81010198
32301072 82110195
33511014 8391191
3417969 8459189
3546967 85210177
3663916 86310168
3764890 87102168
3827877 8895167
3940853 89103153
4065835 9069151
4162815 91410146
4207808 9296139
4337757 9390133
4461724 94101130
4547670 95104125
4667667 96211122
4773638 97011116
4850617 9889111
4918615 99111104
5072606 100112102

Saturday, October 05, 2013

Tigers vs Athletics - ALDS Game #2 Simulation Results




                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Score
RankTigersAthleticsOccurrences RankTigersAthleticsOccurrences
1234683 5107537
2124571 5218510
3343537 5375506
4213498 5447480
5323435 5528478
6012743 5657455
7132720 5776445
8432567 5882435
9312499 5970420
10422389 6083420
11242183 6138416
12452162 6281416
13022159 6308371
14102141 6484370
15142016 6578347
16031933 6619346
17411849 6748329
18201833 6829317
19541567 6985308
20301558 7092304
21351530 7191301
22531520 7293283
23521473 7309282
24151465 7486276
25251456 7539265
26041411 7680261
27561291 77110253
28511164 7858248
29401107 79210242
3063999 8068226
3126997 81102223
3265971 8287208
3364967 83101206
3405960 8449205
3536936 8594204
3662934 8690203
3716921 87010179
3861857 8895178
3946806 89310174
4050761 90211165
4106674 91103165
4217651 9259162
4373646 9396152
4427635 94410150
4572629 95104148
4671618 96113148
4767615 97100138
4837589 98111137
4974588 9989136
5060548 10097128

Rays vs Red Sox - ALDS Game #2 Simulation Results




                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankRaysRed SoxOccurrences RankRaysRed SoxOccurrences
1234099 5176652
2343613 5217622
3123298 5382585
4322790 5483568
5452692 5560561
6432431 5606542
7242373 5728540
8212246 5838534
9132184 5984527
10422150 6078499
11312042 6148478
12561768 6218470
13351745 6358466
14531739 6481463
15141731 6570441
16411719 6685436
17251705 6793434
18541702 6892424
19521693 6907415
20011630 7039393
21021413 7129365
22361361 7286358
23511306 7391345
24641248 7468341
25151234 7587328
26631234 7694320
27031226 7749319
28461215 7819312
29621215 7995301
30201208 8080300
31261137 8108284
32301117 82102284
33651087 8359274
34101080 84310261
35401029 85103255
3604969 86104242
3761966 8796239
3867921 88210231
3972896 8969228
4073868 9089228
4174861 91101209
4216855 92110203
4347841 9390195
4437824 9409194
4527802 95105192
4675734 9679186
4750731 97410181
4857699 98113177
4971689 9997175
5005678 100510171

Friday, October 04, 2013

Tigers vs Athletics - ALDS Game #1 Simulation Results




Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankTigersAthleticsOccurrences RankTigersAthleticsOccurrences
1124703 5182506
2234616 5217493
3213946 5306480
4323764 5437460
5343516 5576431
6313010 5683429
7012825 5747427
8432707 5857405
9132542 5980402
10422490 6084374
11102393 6192357
12202374 6218348
13412262 6307346
14452138 6428338
15242028 6591331
16302002 6685313
17021899 6738309
18141740 6893300
19521739 6929261
20531686 7048260
21541596 7108259
22031564 7278249
23511482 7386242
24401453 7458238
25351346 7594236
26251345 76101236
27621164 7790233
28041102 7819231
29631097 79102226
30561093 80103218
31151048 8187213
32611030 8239204
33501017 8395191
3464941 8468189
3565855 8509169
3636833 86100167
3746817 87210160
3826775 88110158
3960763 89310152
4016754 90112150
4171744 91111147
4272741 92104142
4373704 93113142
4405677 9459140
4567599 9596137
4674594 9649125
4781551 97110125
4827544 98410115
4970520 9989115
5075512 100010113