Best Lineup - Tampa Bay Rays

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Tampa Bay Rays.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest. For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers
NL: Mets | Cubs

See the results after the jump...

Red Sox vs Rays - ALDS Game #4 Simulation Results

                            Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Red Sox	Rays	Occurrences		Rank	Red Sox	Rays	Occurrences
1	2	3	3722		51	4	7	686
2	3	4	3540		52	7	6	677
3	1	2	3063		53	8	4	671
4	3	2	2877		54	5	7	655
5	4	5	2641		55	0	5	648
6	4	3	2595		56	8	1	616
7	4	2	2346		57	1	7	603
8	2	1	2289		58	8	5	566
9	2	4	2265		59	9	3	514
10	3	1	2215		60	7	0	500
11	1	3	2039		61	9	2	495
12	5	3	2007		62	0	6	481
13	5	2	1956		63	3	8	481
14	5	4	1856		64	9	4	464
15	4	1	1799		65	2	8	441
16	3	5	1740		66	8	6	439
17	1	4	1620		67	4	8	437
18	5	6	1617		68	7	8	425
19	2	5	1608		69	9	1	409
20	6	3	1548		70	5	8	399
21	5	1	1488		71	9	5	362
22	6	2	1448		72	0	7	353
23	0	1	1403		73	8	0	342
24	6	4	1286		74	6	8	337
25	2	0	1281		75	8	7	337
26	0	2	1233		76	1	8	336
27	6	5	1218		77	10	2	329
28	3	0	1209		78	3	9	301
29	1	5	1208		79	2	9	292
30	4	6	1167		80	9	6	290
31	3	6	1165		81	10	3	284
32	6	1	1154		82	1	9	272
33	1	0	1134		83	10	4	270
34	7	2	1072		84	4	9	269
35	0	3	1053		85	10	1	236
36	7	3	1049		86	9	0	230
37	4	0	1032		87	3	10	222
38	2	6	1019		88	5	9	222
39	7	4	972		89	10	5	221
40	6	7	900		90	9	7	202
41	7	1	876		91	6	9	196
42	0	4	835		92	0	8	191
43	5	0	822		93	8	9	189
44	1	6	802		94	11	2	185
45	7	5	795		95	2	10	183
46	3	7	764		96	11	3	180
47	2	7	749		97	7	9	163
48	8	3	732		98	10	6	163
49	8	2	702		99	1	10	158
50	6	0	694		100	4	10	156

Rays vs Red Sox - ALDS Game #2 Simulation Results

                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Rays	Red Sox	Occurrences		Rank	Rays	Red Sox	Occurrences
1	2	3	4099		51	7	6	652
2	3	4	3613		52	1	7	622
3	1	2	3298		53	8	2	585
4	3	2	2790		54	8	3	568
5	4	5	2692		55	6	0	561
6	4	3	2431		56	0	6	542
7	2	4	2373		57	2	8	540
8	2	1	2246		58	3	8	534
9	1	3	2184		59	8	4	527
10	4	2	2150		60	7	8	499
11	3	1	2042		61	4	8	478
12	5	6	1768		62	1	8	470
13	3	5	1745		63	5	8	466
14	5	3	1739		64	8	1	463
15	1	4	1731		65	7	0	441
16	4	1	1719		66	8	5	436
17	2	5	1705		67	9	3	434
18	5	4	1702		68	9	2	424
19	5	2	1693		69	0	7	415
20	0	1	1630		70	3	9	393
21	0	2	1413		71	2	9	365
22	3	6	1361		72	8	6	358
23	5	1	1306		73	9	1	345
24	6	4	1248		74	6	8	341
25	1	5	1234		75	8	7	328
26	6	3	1234		76	9	4	320
27	0	3	1226		77	4	9	319
28	4	6	1215		78	1	9	312
29	6	2	1215		79	9	5	301
30	2	0	1208		80	8	0	300
31	2	6	1137		81	0	8	284
32	3	0	1117		82	10	2	284
33	6	5	1087		83	5	9	274
34	1	0	1080		84	3	10	261
35	4	0	1029		85	10	3	255
36	0	4	969		86	10	4	242
37	6	1	966		87	9	6	239
38	6	7	921		88	2	10	231
39	7	2	896		89	6	9	228
40	7	3	868		90	8	9	228
41	7	4	861		91	10	1	209
42	1	6	855		92	1	10	203
43	4	7	841		93	9	0	195
44	3	7	824		94	0	9	194
45	2	7	802		95	10	5	192
46	7	5	734		96	7	9	186
47	5	0	731		97	4	10	181
48	5	7	699		98	11	3	177
49	7	1	689		99	9	7	175
50	0	5	678		100	5	10	171

Rays vs Red Sox - ALDS Game #1 Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Rays	Red Sox	Occurrences		Rank	Rays	Red Sox	Occurrences
1	2	3	37101		51	7	3	6863
2	3	4	35129		52	4	8	6623
3	1	2	30573		53	7	2	6542
4	4	5	27358		54	7	5	6541
5	2	4	22768		55	7	6	6316
6	3	2	22302		56	0	7	6304
7	1	3	22020		57	7	8	6117
8	4	3	20521		58	5	8	6093
9	3	5	18616		59	2	9	5873
10	5	6	18527		60	5	0	5641
11	2	5	18485		61	3	9	5556
12	2	1	18341		62	1	9	5161
13	1	4	18255		63	7	1	5096
14	4	2	17097		64	8	3	4876
15	0	1	16066		65	0	8	4840
16	5	4	15964		66	8	4	4675
17	3	1	15754		67	6	8	4652
18	3	6	14794		68	4	9	4635
19	1	5	14606		69	8	2	4391
20	0	2	14557		70	8	5	4323
21	5	3	14501		71	2	10	4135
22	2	6	13621		72	6	0	4084
23	0	3	13356		73	8	6	4013
24	4	6	13072		74	3	10	3905
25	5	2	12524		75	5	9	3895
26	4	1	12246		76	1	10	3653
27	1	6	11851		77	8	1	3519
28	0	4	11333		78	8	7	3477
29	6	7	10974		79	0	9	3466
30	2	7	10462		80	6	9	3301
31	6	5	10431		81	4	10	3282
32	6	4	10413		82	8	9	3177
33	3	7	10381		83	9	3	3177
34	4	7	10280		84	9	4	3016
35	6	3	10083		85	7	0	3015
36	5	1	9626		86	9	2	2905
37	1	0	9569		87	9	5	2833
38	0	5	9483		88	2	11	2682
39	2	0	9439		89	3	11	2637
40	1	7	9125		90	5	10	2588
41	6	2	9071		91	7	9	2558
42	5	7	8151		92	9	6	2546
43	0	6	8105		93	0	10	2433
44	3	0	8101		94	1	11	2403
45	2	8	8063		95	9	1	2349
46	3	8	7574		96	4	11	2204
47	1	8	7250		97	9	7	2087
48	7	4	7149		98	10	3	2079
49	6	1	7098		99	8	0	2029
50	4	0	7055		100	6	10	1955

Rays vs Indians - AL WildCard Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Rays	Indians	Occurrences		Rank	Rays	Indians	Occurrences
1	1	2	51522		51	7	4	4913
2	2	3	49197		52	1	8	4537
3	2	1	40859		53	4	7	4490
4	3	2	37421		54	2	8	4489
5	3	4	34646		55	7	5	4367
6	0	1	33286		56	7	0	4194
7	3	1	29224		57	7	6	3688
8	1	3	28554		58	5	7	3665
9	1	0	27262		59	8	2	3628
10	4	3	26146		60	0	8	3622
11	0	2	24932		61	3	8	3618
12	4	2	24098		62	8	1	3548
13	2	0	23317		63	8	3	3207
14	2	4	22288		64	4	8	2944
15	1	4	21749		65	2	9	2924
16	0	3	21501		66	1	9	2862
17	4	5	20662		67	8	4	2806
18	4	1	19846		68	8	0	2432
19	3	0	17980		69	0	9	2369
20	0	4	16730		70	8	5	2320
21	5	2	15502		71	7	8	2310
22	5	3	15466		72	3	9	2275
23	5	4	15170		73	9	2	2150
24	1	5	15155		74	5	8	2142
25	2	5	14991		75	9	1	1953
26	3	5	13935		76	8	6	1876
27	5	1	13542		77	9	3	1857
28	4	0	13080		78	1	10	1817
29	0	5	11160		79	4	9	1691
30	5	6	10599		80	2	10	1689
31	2	6	10465		81	6	8	1580
32	1	6	9981		82	8	7	1574
33	6	2	9567		83	9	4	1538
34	6	3	9494		84	0	10	1438
35	5	0	9451		85	9	0	1417
36	6	1	8906		86	3	10	1403
37	3	6	8746		87	5	9	1276
38	6	4	8548		88	9	5	1254
39	0	6	8087		89	10	2	1199
40	6	5	7614		90	4	10	1091
41	4	6	7497		91	1	11	1057
42	1	7	6849		92	2	11	1053
43	2	7	6653		93	10	1	1042
44	6	0	6204		94	9	6	1038
45	7	2	6042		95	10	3	1016
46	3	7	5817		96	10	4	903
47	7	1	5667		97	8	9	900
48	7	3	5553		98	6	9	875
49	0	7	5511		99	3	11	860
50	6	7	5050		100	9	7	819

Rays vs Rangers - AL WildCard Play-In Game Simulation Results

Rays vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/11

Rays vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/10

Rays vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/9

October 4th Simulations

LDS - Yankees and Rays Pushed To The Brink ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Rays	M.Harrison vs J.Hellickson	Rays	52.72%	39.25%	TEX 4-3
Phillies	Cardinals	C.Hamels vs J.Garcia	Phillies	55.85%	40.38%	PHI 3-2
Yankees	Tigers	A.Burnett vs R.Porcello	Tigers	52.83%	52.30%	NYA 10-1
Brewers	DBacks	S.Marcum vs J.Collmenter	Brewers	51.33%	46.21%	ARI 8-1

MLB Scoreboard
Roster Help from MLB Depthcharts
Today's Lineups
Recent Bullpen Usage
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October 3rd Simulations

LDS - American League Takes The Spotlight ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Rays	C.Lewis vs D.Price	Rays	56.52%	50.93%	TEX 4-3
Yankees	Tigers	C.Sabathia vs J.Verlander	Tigers	55.56%	49.49%	DET 5-4

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Today's Lineups
Recent Bullpen Usage
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October 1st Simulations

LDS Full Tilt ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
DBacks	Brewers	I.Kennedy vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	57.36%	57.46%	MIL 4-1
Cardinals	Phillies	K.Lohse vs R.Halladay	Phillies	67.43%	61.07%	PHI 11-6
Rays	Rangers	J.Shields vs D.Holland	Rangers	52.92%	65.23%	TEX 8-6

MLB Scoreboard
Roster Help from MLB Depthcharts
Today's Lineups
Recent Bullpen Usage
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April 7th Simulations

April 7th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Astros	Reds	B.Myers vs S.LeCure	Reds	58.33%	58.15%	HOU 3-2
Red Sox	Indians	J.Lester vs F.Carmona	Red Sox	64.03%	58.77%	CLE 1-0
Braves	Brewers	T.Hanson vs S.Marcum	Braves	53.27%	54.76%	MIL 4-2
Tigers	Orioles	B.Penny vs C.Tillman	Orioles	56.52%	56.73%	BAL 9-5
Rays	White Sox	D.Price vs E.Jackson	White Sox	56.52%	49.88%	CHA 5-1
Rockies	Pirates	E.Rogers vs P.Maholm	Pirates	52.15%	50.96%	COL 7-1
Twins	Yankees	F.Liriano vs A.Burnett	Yankees	59.02%	55.35%	NYA 4-3
Nationals	Marlins	J.Lannan vs J.Johnson	Marlins	64.29%	58.82%	WAS 5-3
Mets	Phillies	J.Niese vs R.Halladay	Phillies	66.10%	62.78%	PHI 11-0
Athletics	Blue Jays	T.Cahill vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	54.55%	49.83%	OAK 2-1

Seasonal ROI: 17.03%

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April 6th, Dodgers vs Rockies Simulation

April 6th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Billingsley vs J.Hammel	Rockies	53.92%	55.30%	COL 7-5
Angels	Rays	D.Haren vs J.Hellickson	Angels	51.46%	53.55%	LAA 5-1

Seasonal ROI: 28.84%

MLB Scoreboard

Simulation contest over at True Blue LA

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April 5th, Dodgers vs Rockies Simulation

April 5th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Kershaw vs J.Chacin	Rockies	50.00%	51.71%	COL 3-0
Angels	Rays	J.Weaver vs J.Niemann	Angels	50.50%	53.55%	LAA 5-3

Seasonal ROI: 32.68%

MLB Scoreboard

Simulation contest over at True Blue LA

Roster help to MLB Depthcharts