Minnesota Twins - 2015 Most Optimal Lineups

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I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 Minnesota Twins.  I started out with 25,000 almost random lineups and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups.  Almost random, because I filtered out some obvious things like batting Joe Mauer 8th or 9th etc...  For the starting nine players, I used the projected starting lineup from MLB Depth Charts The top 50 lineups all came within 0.35 wins per 162 games so really anything in that range is pretty good.  When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems and the projected lineup from MLB Depth Charts finished 0.59 wins/162 games behind (not bad).  You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors, such as rookies not being allowed to hit near the top of the lineup.  The simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups. This exercise is NOT trying to project what lineups the Twins manager might or will actually use it is just outputting what it thinks are the best lineups.  I typically simulated each lineup over 1 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher.  Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups.  The Twins have two left handed batters in the starting nine that I used.  For this exercise, I assumed that there was no restriction on batting the two left handed batters (Mauer, Arcia) back to back.  Obviously, if you add that restriction then 33 of these 50 lineups would be different.

                                               Top 50 Lineups (vs RHP)

Rank	Lineup	Wins/162 Games Behind
1	Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier	0
2	Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier	0.013
3	Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks	0.018
4	Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks-Hunter	0.027
5	Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier	0.033
6	Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter	0.048
7	Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki	0.055
8	Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Hicks-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki	0.061
9	Hunter-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks	0.087
10	Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Hicks-Plouffe-Suzuki-Dozier	0.097
11	Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe	0.101
12	Hicks-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki	0.105
13	Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki	0.106
14	Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hunter-Suzuki-Hicks	0.109
15	Dozier-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Santana-Suzuki-Hunter-Plouffe	0.113
16	Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks-Hunter	0.117
17	Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe-Dozier-Hunter	0.119
18	Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hunter	0.120
19	Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks	0.123
20	Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks	0.136
21	Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Hunter-Dozier-Hicks	0.143
22	Hunter-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hicks-Dozier-Suzuki	0.147
23	Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki	0.151
24	Hunter-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier	0.155
25	Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Suzuki-Hunter-Plouffe-Dozier	0.160
26	Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter	0.161
27	Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks	0.183
28	Hicks-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Santana-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter	0.186
29	Hunter-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks-Dozier	0.193
30	Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe-Hunter	0.197
31	Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Hicks-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki	0.200
32	Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Hunter-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe	0.209
33	Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Hunter-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks	0.211
34	Hicks-Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe	0.222
35	Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Plouffe-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki	0.226
36	Dozier-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hunter-Hicks	0.229
37	Santana-Vargas-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki	0.230
38	Arcia-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Dozier-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe	0.231
39	Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki	0.236
40	Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Dozier-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks	0.242
41	Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Suzuki	0.242
42	Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Vargas-Hunter-Dozier-Hicks	0.247
43	Santana-Hunter-Arcia-Mauer-Vargas-Plouffe-Dozier-Hicks-Suzuki	0.254
44	Santana-Dozier-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki	0.263
45	Hunter-Dozier-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Santana-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks	0.272
46	Dozier-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Santana-Hunter-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks	0.277
47	Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Vargas-Hicks-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Hunter	0.282
48	Dozier-Hicks-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Santana-Hunter-Suzuki-Plouffe	0.290
49	Hicks-Dozier-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Santana-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki	0.299
50	Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Vargas-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe	0.345
..	..	..
MLB	Santana-Dozier-Mauer-Vargas-Hunter-Plouffe-Arcia-Suzuki-Hicks	0.587
BAD	Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks-Dozier-Santana-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Mauer	1.714

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           Batting Order Frequency Table

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
Santana	32	12	0	0	1	5	0	0	0
Mauer	0	18	20	12	0	0	0	0	0
Arcia	1	0	9	23	16	1	0	0	0
Vargas	0	6	19	13	8	4	0	0	0
Hunter	5	7	2	1	5	9	10	2	9
Plouffe	0	0	0	0	4	13	14	12	7
Hicks	4	1	0	0	7	7	9	9	13
Suzuki	0	3	0	0	0	4	12	17	14
Dozier	8	3	0	1	9	7	5	10	7

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Synergy

20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences

Rank	Occurrences	Player 1	Player 2
1	33	Mauer	Arcia
2	22	Santana	Mauer
3	16	Mauer	Vargas
4	16	Arcia	Vargas
5	15	Dozier	Suzuki
6	14	Vargas	Mauer
7	14	Plouffe	Dozier
8	14	Suzuki	Hicks
9	13	Plouffe	Hicks
10	13	Hicks	Suzuki
11	12	Vargas	Arcia
12	12	Suzuki	Plouffe
13	11	Santana	Hunter
14	11	Hunter	Santana
15	11	Hunter	Plouffe
16	11	Plouffe	Suzuki
17	11	Hicks	Santana
18	11	Dozier	Santana
19	10	Santana	Vargas
20	10	Arcia	Plouffe
20	10	Suzuki	Santana

20 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences

Rank	Occurrences	Player 1	Player 2	Player 3
1	16	Mauer	Arcia	Vargas
2	13	Vargas	Mauer	Arcia
3	12	Mauer	Vargas	Arcia
4	11	Santana	Mauer	Arcia
5	11	Santana	Mauer	Vargas
6	9	Santana	Vargas	Mauer
7	8	Hunter	Santana	Mauer
8	8	Dozier	Santana	Mauer
9	7	Plouffe	Dozier	Suzuki
10	6	Mauer	Arcia	Dozier
11	6	Plouffe	Hicks	Suzuki
12	6	Plouffe	Suzuki	Hicks
13	6	Suzuki	Hicks	Santana
14	5	Mauer	Arcia	Plouffe
15	5	Hunter	Mauer	Arcia
16	5	Suzuki	Plouffe	Hicks
17	5	Suzuki	Dozier	Santana
18	5	Dozier	Suzuki	Hicks
19	4	Santana	Hunter	Mauer
20	4	Arcia	Vargas	Hunter

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Tuesday's Dodgers vs Twins Simulation Results

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Fave	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
Dodgers	Twins	Zach Greinke	Kyle Gibson	Dodgers	4.23266	3.17716	59.507	7.40982

                              Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Twins	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Twins	Occurrences
1	2	3	3792		51	8	4	602
2	1	2	3506		52	7	6	568
3	3	2	3270		53	8	0	560
4	3	4	3241		54	9	1	557
5	2	1	2978		55	0	5	542
6	4	3	2665		56	4	7	535
7	3	1	2664		57	3	7	531
8	4	2	2520		58	9	2	513
9	4	1	2342		59	8	5	480
10	4	5	2162		60	5	7	465
11	5	2	2014		61	9	3	463
12	5	3	1965		62	2	7	448
13	5	1	1936		63	9	0	386
14	1	3	1903		64	10	2	380
15	5	4	1853		65	9	4	379
16	3	0	1806		66	1	7	368
17	2	4	1787		67	7	8	364
18	2	0	1779		68	0	6	357
19	0	1	1754		69	8	6	326
20	4	0	1745		70	10	3	326
21	1	0	1614		71	2	8	323
22	6	2	1594		72	10	1	308
23	6	1	1531		73	9	5	306
24	5	0	1502		74	3	8	299
25	6	3	1451		75	4	8	299
26	1	4	1447		76	8	7	290
27	3	5	1354		77	5	8	276
28	5	6	1348		78	1	8	266
29	0	2	1324		79	6	8	246
30	2	5	1265		80	10	4	234
31	6	4	1213		81	10	0	233
32	7	2	1179		82	0	7	231
33	6	0	1083		83	11	1	227
34	7	1	1080		84	9	6	222
35	7	3	1046		85	11	2	199
36	6	5	1030		86	11	3	195
37	0	3	971		87	2	9	190
38	1	5	934		88	3	9	180
39	3	6	898		89	10	5	180
40	4	6	879		90	8	9	167
41	7	4	857		91	4	9	163
42	8	2	829		92	1	9	156
43	7	0	817		93	6	9	152
44	2	6	807		94	11	4	149
45	8	1	778		95	12	1	144
46	0	4	777		96	11	0	143
47	8	3	742		97	9	7	142
48	6	7	739		98	0	8	140
49	7	5	717		99	10	6	134
50	1	6	603		100	5	9	133

Best Lineup - Minnesota Twins

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Minnesota Twins.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres

See the results after the jump...

June 29th Simulations

Rubby Game Of The Series ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Twins	R.DeLaRosa vs S.Baker	Twins	57.72%	63.29%	MIN 1-0
Nationals	Angels	J.Zimmerman vs D.Haren	Angels	57.17%	55.37%	LAA 1-0
NYN	DET	Chris Capuano vs Phil Coke	DET	TBD	62.344	NYN 16-9
MIL	NYA	Shaun Marcum vs A.J. Burnett	NYA	TBD	65.171	NYA 5-2
KC	SD	Bruce Chen vs Tim Stauffer	SD	TBD	64.141	SD 4-1
CIN	TB	Edinson Volquez vs James Shields	TB	TBD	54.555	CIN 4-3
Indians	DBacks	C.Carrasco vs Z.Duke	ARI	TBD	52.787	CLE 6-2
PIT	TOR	Paul Maholm vs Brandon Morrow	TOR	TBD	65.03%	TOR 2-1
FLA	OAK	Ricky Nolasco vs Guillermo Moscoso	OAK	TBD	53.75%	FLA 3-0
BOS	PHI	John Lackey vs Vance Worley	PHI	TBD	52.41%	PHI 2-1
CHA	COL	Mark Buehrle vs Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	TBD	60.20%	CHA 3-2
TEX	HOU	Colby Lewis vs Brett Myers	TEX	TBD	58.86%	TEX 3-2
SF	CHN	Tim Lincecum vs Ryan Dempster	SF	TBD	50.88%	CHN 2-1
STL	BAL	Chris Carpenter vs Chris Jakubauskas	BAL	TBD	50.86%	STL 5-1
ATL	SEA	Derek Lowe vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	TBD	61.70%	ATL 5-3

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June 28th Simulations

Realilly Check ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Twins	T.Lilly vs B.Duensing	Twins	51.57%	65.22%	MIN 6-4
Nationals	Angels	J.Marquis vs J.Pineiro	Angels	54.85%	51.76%	LAA 11-5
Indians	DBacks	J.Tomlin vs D.Hudson	DBacks	TBD	60.58%	ARI 6-4
Cardinals	Orioles	K.Lohse vs Z.Britton	Orioles	TBD	60.39%	STL 6-2
Giants	Cubs	R.Vogelsong vs D.Davis	Giants	TBD	53.83%	SF 13-7
Giants	Cubs	B.Zito vs R.Lopez	Cubs	50.62%	52.20%	SF 6-3
Red Sox	Phillies	J.Beckett vs C.Lee	Phillies	TBD	60.84%	PHI 5-0
Pirates	Blue Jays	K.Correia vs J.Reyes	Blue Jays	TBD	59.48%	PIT 7-6
Mets	Tigers	R.Dickey vs R.Porcello	Tigers	TBD	61.13%	NYN 14-3
Marlins	Athletics	J.Vazquez vs G.Gonzalez	Athletics	TBD	68.04%	OAK 1-0
Rangers	Astros	C.Wilson vs J.Lyles	Rangers	TBD	66.36%	TEX 7-3
Royals	Padres	F.Paulino vs C.Richard	Padres	TBD	59.25%	SD 4-2
White Sox	Rockies	G.Floyd vs J.Hammel	Rockies	TBD	56.73%	COL 3-2
Reds	Rays	J.Cueto vs D.Price	Rays	TBD	56.76%	TB 4-3
Braves	Mariners	T.Hanson vs M.Pineda	Mariners	TBD	56.91%	ATL 5-4
Brewers	Yankees	Z.Greinke vs F.Garcia	Yankees	TBD	61.52%	NYA 12-2

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June 27th Simulations

Kershaw Kemp: Help Wanted! ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Twins	C.Billingsley vs N.Blackburn	Twins	52.49%	52.71%	LAN 15-0
Rockies	Cubs	J.Chacin vs M.Garza	Cubs	53.60%	51.28%	CHN 7-3
Blue Jays	Tigers	Z.Stewart vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	61.17%	66.59%	DET 4-2
Royals	Padres	J.Francis vs M.Latos	Padres	56.99%	58.19%	SD 4-3
Braves	Mariners	B.Beachy vs E.Bedard	Mariners	52.27%	61.87%	ATL 3-1
Indians	DBacks	M.Talbot vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	63.17%	62.20%	CLE 5-4
Nationals	Angels	J.Lannan vs E.Santana	Angels	56.04%	53.92%	LAA 4-3
Reds	Rays	M.Leake vs J.Hellickson	Rays	51.34%	49.84%	CIN 5-0

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April 7th Simulations

April 7th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Astros	Reds	B.Myers vs S.LeCure	Reds	58.33%	58.15%	HOU 3-2
Red Sox	Indians	J.Lester vs F.Carmona	Red Sox	64.03%	58.77%	CLE 1-0
Braves	Brewers	T.Hanson vs S.Marcum	Braves	53.27%	54.76%	MIL 4-2
Tigers	Orioles	B.Penny vs C.Tillman	Orioles	56.52%	56.73%	BAL 9-5
Rays	White Sox	D.Price vs E.Jackson	White Sox	56.52%	49.88%	CHA 5-1
Rockies	Pirates	E.Rogers vs P.Maholm	Pirates	52.15%	50.96%	COL 7-1
Twins	Yankees	F.Liriano vs A.Burnett	Yankees	59.02%	55.35%	NYA 4-3
Nationals	Marlins	J.Lannan vs J.Johnson	Marlins	64.29%	58.82%	WAS 5-3
Mets	Phillies	J.Niese vs R.Halladay	Phillies	66.10%	62.78%	PHI 11-0
Athletics	Blue Jays	T.Cahill vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	54.55%	49.83%	OAK 2-1

Seasonal ROI: 17.03%

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