Dodgers vs Orioles - April 21st Simulation Results

Padres vs Dodgers - April 15th Simulation Results

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores
1. LAN 3-2
2. LAN 2-1
3. LAN 4-3
4. LAN 3-1
5. SD 2-1
6. SD 3-2
7. LAN 1-0
8. LAN 4-2
9. LAN 4-1
10. LAN 2-0
11. LAN 3-0
12. SD 4-3
13. LAN 4-3
14. LAN 4-0
15. LAN 5-1
16. LAN 5-2
17. SD 3-1
18. SD 1-0
19. SD 4-2
20. LAN 5-3

Dodgers vs Padres - April 10th Simulation Results

Once again, another screenshot of today's simulation box score along with the top 20 most likely scores.

Simulator:
Dodgers Win Expectancy: 53.91%
Dodgers RS: 3.43
Padres RS: 2.87

Vegas
Dodgers Win Expectancy: 53.27%
Total Runs: ~ 6.8

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores
1. SD 2-1
2. SD 3-2
3. LAN 2-1
4. LAN 3-2
5. SD 1-0
6. SD 4-3
7. LAN 3-1
8. LAN 1-0
9. SD 3-1
10. LAN 2-0
11. LAN 4-2
12. LAN 4-3
13. LAN 4-1
14. SD 2-0
15. LAN 3-0
16. SD 4-2
17. SD 5-4
18. LAN 4-0
19. LAN 5-2
20. LAN 5-1
.
.
100. LAN 10-6


(Click image for larger size)

 



Chad Billingsley, Handle With Care

Of the six Dodgers starting pitchers I have looked at so far, Billingsley probably has the fourth best set of comparables.  Falling behind Kershaw, Beckett and Capuano and ahead of Harang and probably Lilly.  Billingsley's strikeout rate is right up there with Beckett and Capuano but he walks quite a few more hitters.  Billingsley does however induce the most groundballs of any Dodgers starting pitcher which is a good thing.

Top 50 Most Similar Starting Pitchers

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
NA	Chad Billingsley	7.53	3.28	1.36
1	Jarrod Parker	6.87	3.11	1.44
2	Josh Johnson	7.87	3.05	1.52
3	Ryan Vogelsong	7.33	3.02	1.21
4	C.J. Wilson	7.95	3.63	1.63
5	Vance Worley	7.51	3.10	1.35
6	Matt Garza	8.68	2.83	1.42
7	Ervin Santana	6.85	2.98	1.15
8	Mat Latos	8.18	2.80	1.18
9	Jon Lester	7.74	3.18	1.63
10	Clay Buchholz	6.23	3.12	1.42
11	Wandy Rodriguez	6.67	2.73	1.44
12	Erik Bedard	8.57	3.77	1.23
13	Ivan Nova	7.10	3.02	1.55
14	Philip Humber	6.85	3.02	1.07
15	Edwin Jackson	7.50	2.78	1.35
16	Derek Holland	7.52	2.80	1.18
17	Jeff Niemann	7.33	2.59	1.44
18	Dillon Gee	7.23	3.10	1.57
19	John Danks	6.43	2.93	1.17
20	Gavin Floyd	7.45	2.86	1.29
21	Chris Narveson	6.88	3.67	1.17
22	Luke Hochevar	6.54	2.91	1.35
23	Ryan Dempster	8.18	3.10	1.23
24	Jason Hammel	6.92	3.41	1.58
25	Jake Arrieta	7.55	3.46	1.26
26	Matt Moore	9.07	4.08	0.87
27	Luis Mendoza	5.78	2.97	1.83
28	Clayton Kershaw	9.26	2.34	1.27
29	Johnny Cueto	6.73	2.24	1.70
30	Roy Halladay	8.03	1.73	1.51
31	Justin Verlander	9.01	2.18	1.09
32	Jered Weaver	7.13	2.15	0.76
33	Tim Lincecum	9.17	4.03	1.49
34	Cole Hamels	8.71	2.06	1.36
35	James Shields	8.55	2.32	1.59
36	Doug Fister	6.96	1.84	1.70
37	Ian Kennedy	8.06	2.32	0.92
38	Matt Cain	7.68	2.27	0.96
39	Josh Beckett	7.46	2.62	1.08
40	Ricky Romero	6.57	4.36	1.91
41	Jeremy Hellickson	6.02	3.17	0.97
42	CC Sabathia	8.81	2.12	1.56
43	Hiroki Kuroda	6.97	2.13	1.56
44	Nathan Eovaldi	5.97	3.72	1.40
45	Gio Gonzalez	9.14	3.67	1.52
46	Kyle Kendrick	6.17	2.27	1.32
47	Jordan Zimmermann	7.01	1.90	1.16
48	Madison Bumgarner	8.32	2.09	1.41
49	Ross Detwiler	5.57	2.68	1.59
50	Justin Masterson	6.80	3.39	2.16

Links to other player comparables...

Clayton Kershaw
Josh Beckett
Chris Capuano
Aaron Harang
Ted Lilly

August 24th - Marlins vs Dodgers Simulation Box Score

                   |    Wins     Losses           RS         RA
  Dodgers  +-------------------------------------------------------
                   |    67088    32912        431383   300279

  Vegas Odds:
             Money Line:  Dodgers -210/+200 (or Dodgers have a 67.21% chance of winning)
             Run Total:   Over 7 -107, Under 7 +103

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Bryan Petersen	4.270	1.052	0.742	0.210	0.014	0.085	0.257	0.264	0.371	1.185	0.298
Justin Ruggiano	4.236	1.066	0.713	0.261	0.012	0.080	0.324	0.228	0.228	1.228	0.292
Jose Reyes	4.107	1.254	0.915	0.248	0.037	0.055	0.363	0.247	0.311	0.546	0.344
Carlos Lee	4.010	1.084	0.779	0.228	0.005	0.072	0.464	0.153	0.305	0.596	0.313
Giancarlo Stanton	3.935	0.953	0.559	0.233	0.003	0.158	0.516	0.129	0.302	1.457	0.312
Greg Dobbs	3.946	1.064	0.779	0.213	0.003	0.068	0.366	0.117	0.195	0.848	0.300
John Buck	3.709	0.801	0.548	0.194	0.001	0.057	0.281	0.093	0.299	1.273	0.265
Donovan Solano	3.674	0.897	0.633	0.202	0.010	0.051	0.278	0.115	0.218	0.961	0.281
Pitchers Spot	3.666	0.388	0.315	0.063	0.001	0.009	0.114	0.071	0.126	2.082	0.125
Dodgers
Shane Victorino	4.243	1.282	0.867	0.270	0.056	0.089	0.349	0.410	0.397	0.486	0.358
Mark Ellis	4.157	1.198	0.850	0.260	0.020	0.067	0.451	0.274	0.334	0.628	0.332
Matt Kemp	4.080	1.341	0.878	0.282	0.031	0.150	0.611	0.293	0.360	0.788	0.392
Andre Ethier	3.917	1.205	0.782	0.298	0.008	0.117	0.599	0.233	0.448	0.695	0.375
Hanley Ramirez	3.885	1.216	0.798	0.275	0.026	0.117	0.580	0.251	0.349	0.671	0.373
James Loney	3.802	1.173	0.807	0.276	0.006	0.084	0.545	0.205	0.339	0.435	0.359
Luis Cruz	3.789	1.079	0.711	0.287	0.007	0.073	0.495	0.176	0.218	0.587	0.326
A.J. Ellis	3.553	1.003	0.731	0.203	0.008	0.061	0.427	0.148	0.348	0.706	0.331
Pitchers Spot	3.654	0.575	0.466	0.094	0.004	0.011	0.180	0.113	0.151	1.358	0.177

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Nathan Eovaldi	5.880	3.943	1.888	7.100	0.555	95.167	4.050
Heath Bell	0.364	0.325	0.125	0.371	0.022	5.846	3.225
Steven Cishek	0.408	0.404	0.140	0.407	0.023	6.587	2.992
Mike Dunn	0.581	0.558	0.290	0.613	0.049	9.926	3.882
Ryan Webb	0.294	0.216	0.082	0.330	0.014	4.644	3.173
Carlos Zambrano	0.221	0.179	0.105	0.246	0.016	3.740	3.949
Chris Hatcher	0.559	0.440	0.198	0.657	0.066	9.189	4.226
Chad Gaudin	0.318	0.290	0.115	0.348	0.025	5.224	3.466
Dodgers
Chad Billingsley	6.640	7.212	1.579	6.218	0.474	103.292	2.668
Kenley Jansen	0.466	0.805	0.111	0.293	0.033	7.274	1.390
Brandon League	0.379	0.313	0.103	0.380	0.017	5.881	2.943
Ronald Belisario	0.591	0.604	0.166	0.555	0.032	9.268	2.700
Randy Choate	0.238	0.267	0.082	0.211	0.016	3.802	2.855
Rubby De La Rosa	0.141	0.143	0.040	0.133	0.011	2.215	3.050
Scott Elbert	0.535	0.573	0.170	0.503	0.040	8.542	2.986
Jamey Wright	0.274	0.259	0.104	0.265	0.013	4.420	3.040

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
N.Eovaldi vs C.Billingsley

August 19th - Dodgers vs Braves Simulation Box Score

                  |     Wins    Losses         RS        RA
  Dodgers  +----------------------------------------------------
                  |    51421   48579       453926  411583

  Vegas Odds
             Money Line:  Braves -110/+100 (or Braves have a 51.22% chance of winning)
             Run Totals:    Over 7-1/2 -115, Under 7-1/2 -105

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Shane Victorino	4.520	1.364	0.921	0.251	0.074	0.118	0.428	0.408	0.395	0.713	0.360
Mark Ellis	4.424	1.291	0.902	0.281	0.025	0.083	0.503	0.280	0.350	0.780	0.338
Matt Kemp	4.337	1.440	0.921	0.309	0.038	0.172	0.666	0.284	0.383	0.935	0.399
Andre Ethier	4.264	1.187	0.842	0.219	0.010	0.116	0.561	0.213	0.350	1.186	0.330
Hanley Ramirez	4.111	1.290	0.822	0.311	0.033	0.125	0.591	0.257	0.397	0.831	0.378
Juan Rivera	4.064	1.189	0.796	0.270	0.006	0.117	0.586	0.190	0.324	0.683	0.347
Luis Cruz	4.035	1.179	0.762	0.330	0.008	0.079	0.491	0.193	0.248	0.751	0.336
A.J. Ellis	3.677	1.057	0.775	0.206	0.009	0.066	0.429	0.177	0.501	0.855	0.349
Pitchers Spot	3.916	0.589	0.470	0.102	0.004	0.014	0.203	0.117	0.177	1.681	0.173
Braves
Michael Bourn	4.307	1.345	0.934	0.232	0.116	0.062	0.313	0.421	0.399	1.054	0.365
Martin Prado	4.196	1.311	0.953	0.256	0.030	0.070	0.480	0.288	0.332	0.651	0.353
Jason Heyward	3.975	1.151	0.726	0.229	0.040	0.157	0.600	0.245	0.536	1.043	0.375
Freddie Freeman	3.928	1.228	0.777	0.299	0.015	0.136	0.642	0.201	0.475	0.887	0.387
Dan Uggla	3.779	0.904	0.582	0.203	0.014	0.106	0.472	0.176	0.495	1.261	0.318
Juan Francisco	3.883	1.170	0.786	0.273	0.020	0.090	0.502	0.173	0.296	0.846	0.351
Brian McCann	3.625	1.068	0.705	0.219	0.006	0.139	0.536	0.152	0.447	0.699	0.370
Paul Janish	3.678	0.888	0.629	0.200	0.029	0.030	0.324	0.143	0.254	0.813	0.280
Pitchers Spot	3.681	0.495	0.403	0.078	0.004	0.011	0.157	0.109	0.163	1.800	0.157

Pitching

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Chad Billingsley	5.905	6.099	2.102	6.526	0.574	98.189	3.466
Kenley Jansen	0.451	0.728	0.166	0.337	0.032	7.428	1.985
Brandon League	0.415	0.347	0.148	0.468	0.023	6.800	3.310
Javy Guerra	0.600	0.524	0.297	0.677	0.042	10.297	3.850
Randy Choate	0.311	0.355	0.135	0.303	0.019	5.221	3.006
Ronald Belisario	0.252	0.235	0.102	0.277	0.020	4.209	3.601
Shawn Tolleson	0.568	0.522	0.283	0.657	0.071	9.851	4.488
Jamey Wright	0.275	0.242	0.164	0.315	0.019	4.877	4.148
Braves
Mike Minor	5.902	4.630	1.876	7.204	0.579	96.792	3.860
Craig Kimbrel	0.401	0.708	0.097	0.260	0.020	6.315	1.045
Jonny Venters	0.372	0.487	0.175	0.350	0.037	6.379	3.288
Eric O'Flaherty	0.617	0.596	0.198	0.678	0.045	10.074	3.189
Cristhian Martinez	0.295	0.318	0.071	0.303	0.027	4.678	2.956
Cory Gearrin	0.175	0.170	0.076	0.195	0.020	2.966	4.026
Luis Avilan	0.836	0.868	0.413	0.887	0.067	14.382	3.649
Chad Durbin	0.621	0.636	0.217	0.708	0.094	10.364	4.158

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

August 14th - Dodgers vs Pirates Simulation Box Score

                   |     Wins    Losses         RS         RA
  Dodgers  +-------------------------------------------------
                   |    64080    35920      490991   332332

  Vegas Odds
                       Money Line:  Dodgers -114/+109 or Dodgers have a 52.49% chance of winning
                       Run Total: Over 8.0 -110, Under 8.0 +100 (or around 8.2 total runs)

                                    Starting Pitching - Tale of The Tape

Name	IP	GS	SO	BB	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	HR/9	HR/FB	LOB%	BABIP	LD%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA
Chad Billingsley	131.1	22	118	39	8.09	2.67	1.42	0.69	7.90%	70.30%	0.321	21.50%	3.84	3.29	3.73	3.70
Kevin Correia	116.1	20	57	34	4.41	2.63	1.66	1.24	13.60%	69.40%	0.267	18.90%	4.49	4.83	4.54	4.70

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Shane Victorino	4.564	1.429	0.947	0.277	0.075	0.129	0.451	0.443	0.406	0.618	0.374
Mark Ellis	4.514	1.335	0.945	0.276	0.028	0.086	0.527	0.296	0.300	0.769	0.337
Matt Kemp	4.427	1.499	0.976	0.299	0.041	0.183	0.701	0.323	0.331	0.920	0.401
Andre Ethier	4.262	1.340	0.842	0.337	0.012	0.151	0.688	0.253	0.423	0.883	0.382
Hanley Ramirez	4.214	1.347	0.871	0.303	0.028	0.144	0.646	0.281	0.339	0.820	0.380
James Loney	4.111	1.302	0.888	0.305	0.011	0.098	0.601	0.237	0.347	0.568	0.367
Luis Cruz	4.106	1.174	0.777	0.310	0.032	0.056	0.506	0.205	0.217	0.733	0.323
A.J. Ellis	3.760	1.107	0.810	0.210	0.010	0.077	0.482	0.183	0.466	0.803	0.353
Pitchers Spot	3.982	0.622	0.501	0.103	0.004	0.015	0.212	0.124	0.154	1.630	0.175
Pirates
Starling Marte	4.258	1.105	0.815	0.202	0.000	0.088	0.264	0.270	0.270	1.085	0.298
Travis Snider	4.122	1.083	0.759	0.225	0.005	0.093	0.342	0.224	0.276	1.124	0.307
Andrew McCutchen	3.994	1.202	0.802	0.232	0.044	0.124	0.456	0.245	0.339	0.916	0.361
Garrett Jones	3.955	1.127	0.685	0.285	0.029	0.128	0.544	0.195	0.315	0.848	0.349
Neil Walker	3.821	1.143	0.762	0.291	0.018	0.072	0.456	0.178	0.334	0.870	0.350
Pedro Alvarez	3.723	1.008	0.637	0.254	0.011	0.106	0.468	0.121	0.336	0.990	0.333
Rod Barajas	3.678	0.812	0.582	0.175	0.003	0.052	0.309	0.099	0.238	0.895	0.260
Clint Barmes	3.644	0.893	0.629	0.202	0.015	0.047	0.302	0.109	0.156	0.846	0.275
Pitchers Spot	3.576	0.473	0.382	0.078	0.004	0.009	0.129	0.078	0.130	1.726	0.150

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Chad Billingsley	6.459	6.627	1.590	6.516	0.528	101.647	2.949
Kenley Jansen	0.516	0.866	0.138	0.344	0.036	8.152	1.541
Brandon League	0.389	0.333	0.105	0.407	0.022	6.107	3.042
Javy Guerra	0.543	0.485	0.202	0.564	0.039	8.827	3.454
Randy Choate	0.257	0.279	0.095	0.244	0.018	4.180	3.056
Ronald Belisario	0.202	0.198	0.060	0.203	0.017	3.217	3.194
Shawn Tolleson	0.379	0.365	0.138	0.400	0.049	6.215	4.037
Jamey Wright	0.158	0.146	0.069	0.166	0.011	2.639	3.577
Pirates
Kevin Correia	5.811	4.210	1.759	7.409	0.601	95.306	4.005
Joel Hanrahan	0.355	0.453	0.108	0.323	0.024	5.728	2.428
Jason Grilli	0.397	0.585	0.131	0.339	0.030	6.514	2.228
Tony Watson	0.618	0.658	0.215	0.685	0.068	10.287	3.537
Juan Cruz	0.296	0.324	0.131	0.311	0.027	5.026	3.539
Chad Qualls	0.181	0.137	0.056	0.226	0.022	2.963	4.198
Chris Resop	0.903	0.881	0.308	1.034	0.094	14.979	3.621
Jeff Locke	0.653	0.498	0.274	0.827	0.073	11.131	4.382

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

August 8th - Rockies vs Dodgers Simulation Box Score

                   |    Wins     Losses         RS        RA
  Dodgers  +-----------------------------------------------------------
                   |    62395    37605      404394  312679

  Vegas Odds: Money Line - Dodgers -195/+187 or 65.64% win expectancy
                         Run Total - Over 7-1/2 +108, Under 7-1/2 -118

Hitting

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Eric Young	4.335	1.074	0.809	0.188	0.009	0.068	0.244	0.308	0.321	1.197	0.288
Josh Rutledge	4.293	1.071	0.757	0.249	0.020	0.044	0.319	0.245	0.198	1.052	0.278
Dexter Fowler	4.046	1.080	0.759	0.216	0.045	0.060	0.383	0.239	0.413	1.214	0.322
Carlos Gonzalez	3.996	1.195	0.787	0.248	0.022	0.138	0.561	0.234	0.389	1.085	0.365
Tyler Colvin	3.972	0.967	0.599	0.231	0.017	0.120	0.510	0.185	0.314	1.035	0.306
Ramon Hernandez	3.900	0.931	0.722	0.186	0.001	0.022	0.335	0.119	0.238	1.010	0.265
Jordan Pacheco	3.866	1.026	0.758	0.223	0.006	0.038	0.320	0.118	0.154	0.818	0.287
Jonathan Herrera	3.678	0.922	0.654	0.209	0.012	0.047	0.287	0.123	0.249	0.893	0.290
Pitchers Spot	3.693	0.394	0.323	0.062	0.001	0.008	0.114	0.071	0.129	2.081	0.125
Dodgers
Shane Victorino	4.232	1.258	0.855	0.248	0.060	0.095	0.360	0.387	0.393	0.576	0.354
Mark Ellis	4.139	1.182	0.820	0.275	0.020	0.067	0.446	0.262	0.347	0.658	0.332
Matt Kemp	4.058	1.330	0.858	0.299	0.029	0.144	0.599	0.272	0.377	0.796	0.392
Andre Ethier	3.978	1.117	0.784	0.231	0.008	0.095	0.515	0.203	0.352	0.985	0.333
Hanley Ramirez	3.843	1.193	0.757	0.306	0.018	0.112	0.548	0.243	0.385	0.703	0.375
Juan Rivera	3.794	1.083	0.721	0.260	0.005	0.096	0.527	0.179	0.311	0.573	0.339
Luis Cruz	3.753	1.061	0.686	0.310	0.022	0.042	0.412	0.182	0.245	0.629	0.324
A.J. Ellis	3.509	0.986	0.732	0.203	0.007	0.045	0.383	0.149	0.386	0.751	0.330
Pitchers Spot	3.628	0.562	0.445	0.103	0.003	0.011	0.180	0.109	0.169	1.391	0.178

Pitching

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	FIP
Jeff Francis	5.930	4.179	2.011	7.017	0.489	3.880
Rafael Betancourt	0.403	0.499	0.078	0.350	0.024	2.064
Matt Belisle	0.424	0.416	0.073	0.420	0.019	2.328
Rex Brothers	0.590	0.713	0.281	0.551	0.046	3.229
Josh Roenicke	0.282	0.204	0.126	0.314	0.018	3.944
Matt Reynolds	0.222	0.215	0.073	0.244	0.032	4.137
Adam Ottavino	0.538	0.585	0.232	0.547	0.055	3.652
Mike Ekstrom	0.300	0.250	0.093	0.332	0.025	3.525
Dodgers
Chad Billingsley	6.645	7.444	1.581	6.235	0.408	2.471
Kenley Jansen	0.464	0.811	0.116	0.283	0.020	1.032
Brandon League	0.403	0.362	0.103	0.407	0.016	2.687
Javy Guerra	0.594	0.554	0.206	0.596	0.028	2.994
Randy Choate	0.251	0.292	0.081	0.219	0.010	2.368
Ronald Belisario	0.146	0.147	0.039	0.139	0.008	2.672
Shawn Tolleson	0.532	0.538	0.181	0.537	0.044	3.275
Jamey Wright	0.249	0.238	0.097	0.244	0.010	3.005

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
Jeff Francis v Chad Billingsley - Tale of The Tape

August 3rd - Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation Box Score

                  |    Wins  Losses      RS        RA
  Dodgers +------------------------------------------
                  |   63283  36717  373152  286450

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
David DeJesus	4.217	1.152	0.786	0.260	0.037	0.069	0.263	0.236	0.424	0.966	0.329
Starlin Castro	4.309	1.206	0.924	0.187	0.030	0.066	0.309	0.190	0.153	0.979	0.302
Anthony Rizzo	4.100	1.090	0.731	0.238	0.006	0.115	0.421	0.155	0.345	0.879	0.323
Alfonso Soriano	4.103	0.942	0.572	0.231	0.005	0.134	0.457	0.145	0.222	1.338	0.285
Bryan LaHair	3.886	0.942	0.668	0.164	0.004	0.105	0.392	0.141	0.370	1.270	0.302
Steve Clevenger	3.861	0.947	0.702	0.222	0.003	0.019	0.253	0.122	0.269	0.911	0.277
Darwin Barney	3.816	1.032	0.741	0.237	0.015	0.039	0.294	0.122	0.171	0.682	0.297
Luis Valbuena	3.650	0.864	0.571	0.224	0.005	0.065	0.313	0.111	0.252	0.863	0.283
Pitchers Spot	3.659	0.391	0.316	0.064	0.001	0.009	0.116	0.072	0.128	2.064	0.126
Dodgers
Shane Victorino	4.187	1.197	0.829	0.226	0.051	0.091	0.316	0.360	0.358	0.714	0.339
Mark Ellis	4.116	1.112	0.799	0.231	0.021	0.061	0.389	0.239	0.297	0.847	0.311
Matt Kemp	4.042	1.236	0.820	0.250	0.031	0.135	0.532	0.255	0.326	1.011	0.365
Andre Ethier	3.867	1.118	0.710	0.290	0.009	0.108	0.527	0.212	0.429	0.924	0.357
Hanley Ramirez	3.826	1.120	0.739	0.257	0.020	0.104	0.499	0.227	0.339	0.883	0.351
James Loney	3.719	1.101	0.757	0.268	0.008	0.068	0.474	0.187	0.347	0.588	0.346
Luis Cruz	3.712	0.972	0.649	0.257	0.026	0.039	0.403	0.152	0.217	0.777	0.300
A.J. Ellis	3.470	0.905	0.673	0.174	0.008	0.050	0.370	0.125	0.354	0.933	0.310
Pitchers Spot	3.580	0.469	0.379	0.076	0.003	0.010	0.150	0.090	0.150	1.736	0.152

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Jeff Samardzija	6.236	6.181	1.804	6.551	0.457	100.009	3.037
Carlos Marmol	0.388	0.511	0.216	0.316	0.022	6.663	2.970
James Russell	0.410	0.348	0.134	0.469	0.041	6.686	3.782
Shawn Camp	0.614	0.461	0.174	0.715	0.047	9.816	3.539
Jairo Asencio	0.255	0.200	0.111	0.293	0.024	4.273	4.173
Manny Corpas	0.204	0.138	0.075	0.242	0.017	3.336	3.999
Scott Maine	0.416	0.423	0.222	0.441	0.040	7.230	4.025
Casey Coleman	0.175	0.148	0.081	0.204	0.020	2.991	4.381
Dodgers
Chad Billingsley	6.634	7.093	1.549	6.191	0.470	102.796	2.682
Kenley Jansen	0.475	0.802	0.116	0.294	0.025	7.384	1.237
Brandon League	0.411	0.352	0.098	0.402	0.017	6.297	2.739
Javy Guerra	0.598	0.535	0.194	0.577	0.031	9.431	3.057
Randy Choate	0.242	0.285	0.068	0.199	0.011	3.761	2.256
Ronald Belisario	0.135	0.132	0.034	0.127	0.007	2.093	2.725
Shawn Tolleson	0.522	0.506	0.173	0.519	0.050	8.368	3.486
Jamey Wright	0.268	0.247	0.104	0.258	0.012	4.333	3.126

July 28th Simulation Results

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CHA	TEX	Phil Humber vs Matt Harrison	TEX	64.22%	67.05%	TBD
PHI	ATL	Joe Blanton vs Mike Minor	ATL	53.16%	51.30%	TBD
TB	LAA	Matt Moore vs C.J. Wilson	LAA	62.05%	62.99%	TBD
STL	CHN	Joe Kelly vs Jeff Samardzija	STL	52.72%	51.33%	TBD
DET	TOR	Anibal Sanchez vs Henderson Alvarez	DET	55.26%	58.12%	TBD
BOS	NYA	Jon Lester vs C.C. Sabathia	NYA	63.70%	58.70%	TBD
KC	SEA	Bruce Chen vs Kevin Millwood	KC	50.74%	49.27%	TBD
OAK	BAL	Bartolo Colon vs Tommy Hunter	BAL	52.27%	56.90%	TBD
PIT	HOU	Wandy Rodriguez vs Armando Gallaraga	PIT	62.05%	52.19%	TBD
CLE	MIN	Justin Masterson vs Samuel Deduno	CLE	54.44%	52.50%	TBD
SD	FLA	Ross Ohlendorf vs Nathan Eovaldi	FLA	56.24%	55.99%	TBD
WAS	MIL	Jordan Zimmerman vs Randy Wolf	WAS	54.44%	52.77%	TBD
CIN	COL	Johnny Cueto vs Chris Friedrich	CIN	59.92%	54.05%	TBD
NYN	ARI	Chris Young vs Ian Kennedy	ARI	62.89%	60.83%	TBD
LAN	SF	Chad Billingsley vs Barry Zito	SF	51.10%	45.04%	TBD

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 23rd Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	CLE	Tommy Hunter vs Justin Masterson	CLE	TBD	59.78%	TBD
BOS	TEX	Felix Doubront vs Scott Feldman	TEX	TBD	57.06%	TBD
KC	LAA	Bruce Chen vs C.J. Wilson	LAA	TBD	62.87%	TBD
MIN	CHA	Francisco Liriano vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	TBD	51.37%	TBD
CHN	PIT	Jeff Samardzija vs Erik Bedard	PIT	TBD	57.38%	TBD
MIL	PHI	Randy Wolf vs Roy Halladay	PHI	TBD	65.06%	TBD
ATL	FLA	Mike Minor vs Josh Johnson	FLA	TBD	61.06%	TBD
WAS	NYN	Jordan Zimmerman vs Chris Young	WAS	TBD	52.26%	TBD
CIN	HOU	Mat Latos vs Wandy Rodriguez	CIN	TBD	57.89%	TBD
LAN	STL	Chad Billingsley vs Joe Kelly	STL	TBD	53.44%	TBD
COL	ARI	Jonathan Sanchez vs Ian Kennedy	ARI	TBD	61.91%	TBD
NYA	SEA	Hiroki Kuroda vs Kevin Millwood	NYA	TBD	54.34%	TBD
SD	SF	Clayton Richard vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	TBD	55.95%	TBD

Previous Day: NA
Current ML ROI: 2.45%
No bets Today!

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July 15th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	NYA	Jered Weaver vs Ivan Nova	LAA	51.57%	48.08%	TBD
BOS	TB	Josh Beckett vs James Shields	TB	50.74%	51.52%	TBD
CHA	KC	Chris Sale vs Luis Mendoza	CHA	59.27%	56.09%	TBD
NYN	ATL	Johan Santana vs Ben Sheets	ATL	50.25%	51.15%	TBD
SD	LAN	Jason Marquis vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	60.40%	61.71%	TBD
STL	CIN	Jake Westbrook vs Homer Bailey	CIN	52.04%	51.80%	TBD
CLE	TOR	Derek Lowe vs Carlos Villanueva	TOR	57.36%	51.98%	TBD
WAS	FLA	Stephen Strasburg vs Ricky Nolasco	WAS	56.62%	54.60%	TBD
DET	BAL	Justin Verlander vs Miguel Gonzalez	DET	61.69%	57.28%	TBD
OAK	MIN	Jarrod Parker vs Brian Duensing	MIN	51.10%	51.29%	TBD
PIT	MIL	A.J. Burnett vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	57.89%	55.09%	TBD
ARI	CHN	Trevor Cahill vs Matt Garza	CHN	52.04%	55.77%	TBD
PHI	COL	Cole Hamels vs Drew Pomeranz	PHI	54.85%	55.56%	TBD
HOU	SF	Bud Norris vs Matt Cain	SF	68.75%	66.15%	TBD
TEX	SEA	Matt Harrison vs Hisashi Iwakuma	TEX	61.54%	61.05%	TBD

No bets today!

Previous Day: +3.5 Units
Current ML ROI: 3.27%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 7th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bet
BAL	LAA	Jason Hammel vs Jered Weaver	LAA	63.70%	58.99%	BAL, 1.4u
CIN	SD	Homer Bailey vs Clayton Richard	CIN	51.57%	49.91%	- - -
MIN	TEX	Samuel Deduno vs Derek Holland	TEX	66.10%	62.09%	MIN, 0.6u
NYA	BOS	Phil Hughes vs Felix Doubront	BOS	NA	53.71%	- - -
SEA	OAK	Jason Vargas vs Jarrod Parker	OAK	58.76%	57.34%	OAK, 0.8u
TB	CLE	Matt Moore vs Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	52.72%	51.87%	TB, 0.7u
TOR	CHA	Ricky Romero vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	57.72%	56.92%	- - -
FLA	STL	Carlos Zambrano vs Kyle Lohse	STL	59.10%	56.30%	STL, 0.8u
COL	WAS	Jeff Francis vs Gio Gonzalez	WAS	65.93%	63.77%	- - -
SF	PIT	Ryan Vogelsong vs James McDonald	PIT	53.38%	50.74%	PIT, 0.6u
KC	DET	Bruce Chen vs Doug Fister	DET	59.76%	61.69%	DET, 1.4u
MIL	HOU	Zach Greinke vs Wandy Rodriguez	MIL	59.92%	61.06%	- - -
CHN	NYN	Jeff Samardzija vs Dillon Gee	NYN	57.72%	60.28%	NYN, 1.4u
ATL	PHI	Tommy Hanson vs Joe Blanton	PHI	50.25%	53.53%	PHI, 1.1u
LAN	ARI	Chad Billingsley vs Trevor Cahill	ARI	60.08%	58.74%	LAN, 0.2u

Previous Day: No Money Line Bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 2nd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	CLE	Jered Weaver vs Ubaldo Jimenez	LAA	57.54%	57.10%	TBD
CHN	ATL	Jeff Samardzija vs Tommy Hanson	ATL	64.35%	62.83%	TBD
CIN	LAN	Homer Bailey vs Chad Billingsley	CIN	54.02%	48.91%	TBD
NYA	TB	Freddy Garcia vs Matt Moore	TB	54.03%	49.34%	TBD
HOU	PIT	Jordan Lyles vs James McDonald	PIT	62.48%	65.54%	TBD
MIN	DET	Liam Hendriks vs Doug Fister	DET	64.22%	65.70%	TBD
KC	TOR	Everett Teaford vs Ricky Romero	TOR	60.86%	55.79%	TBD
FLA	MIL	Carlos Zambrano vs Zach Greinke	MIL	61.32%	61.86%	TBD
COL	STL	Josh Outman vs Kyle Lohse	STL	65.64%	60.22%	TBD
SD	ARI	Clayton Richard vs Trevor Cahill	ARI	60.86%	61.87%	TBD
BOS	OAK	Daisuke Matsuzaka vs Jarrod Parker	BOS	50.74%	49.25%	TBD
BAL	SEA	Jason Hammel vs Hisashi Iwakuma	BAL	54.85%	53.03%	TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

June 10th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Bet Units
DET	CIN	Drew Smyly vs Homer Bailey	CIN	55.46%	56.44%	---
HOU	CHA	Lucas Harrell vs Phil Humber	CHA	60.08%	57.96%	---
NYN	NYA	John Niese vs Andy Pettitte	NYA	63.03%	61.55%	---
TOR	ATL	Ricky Romero vs Julio Teheran	TOR	50.86%	42.14%	---
WAS	BOS	Jordan Zimmerman vs Jon Lester	BOS	57.17%	52.95%	---
TB	FLA	James Shields vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	52.49%	NA	---
KC	PIT	Bruce Chen vs A.J. Burnett	PIT	54.44%	53.65%	---
PHI	BAL	Cliff Lee vs Jason Hammel	PHI	56.43%	52.44%	---
CHN	MIN	Ryan Dempster vs Francisco Liriano	MIN	56.04%	56.15%	---
SD	MIL	Anthony Bass vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	60.55%	56.43%	---
CLE	STL	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Joe Kelly	STL	50.62%	58.11%	---
LAA	COL	Ervin Santana vs Chris Friedrich	COL	50.86%	51.47%	---
TEX	SF	Alexi Ogando vs Tim Lincecum	TEX	56.24%	47.92%	---
LAN	SEA	Chad Billingsley vs Blake Beavan	LAN	50.62%	52.86%	---
OAK	ARI	Travis Blackley vs Joe Saunders	ARI	58.76%	61.15%	---

Saturday's Results: No bets
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yesterday's Synopsis
No bets yesterday. Would've been a slightly positive day.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

June 5th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Bet Units
BAL	BOS	Jason Hammel vs Jon Lester	BOS	58.93%	56.37%	---
MIN	KC	Francisco Liriano vs Bruce Chen	KC	56.43%	60.24%	---
PIT	CIN	A.J. Burnett vs Homer Bailey	CIN	57.89%	58.31%	---
SEA	LAA	Blake Beavan vs Garrett Richards	LAA	58.59%	58.34%	---
SF	SD	Tim Lincecum vs Anthony Bass	SF	50.86%	48.07%	---
TOR	CHA	Ricky Romero vs Phil Humber	TOR	50.25%	47.32%	---
CLE	DET	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Drew Smyly	DET	58.76%	63.94%	---
LAN	PHI	Chad Billingsley vs Cliff Lee	PHI	62.89%	64.20%	---
NYN	WAS	Chris Young vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	58.93%	65.42%	---
TB	NYA	James Shields vs Andy Pettitte	NYA	54.44%	60.30%	---
ATL	FLA	Tim Hudson vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	54.85%	57.47%	---
STL	HOU	Jaime Garcia vs Lucas Harrell	STL	57.17%	62.62%	---
CHN	MIL	Ryan Dempster vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	59.27%	57.61%	---
COL	ARI	Jeremy Guthrie vs Ian Kennedy	ARI	58.93%	55.23%	---
TEX	OAK	Derek Holland vs Travis Blackley	TEX	60.55%	60.40%	---

Monday's Results: -4.3 units
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yesterday's Synopsis
Mauled!  One run games on big bets killing me of late.  Taking the day off to stretch out what may possibly be the last week of beating Vegas.

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Daily Baseball Lineups

May 31st Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

			Vegas	Win Probability
Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas	Simulator	Units Bet
DET	BOS	Max Scherzer vs Josh Beckett	BOS	57.17%	52.62%	---
MIL	LAN	Zach Greinke vs Chad Billingsley	MIL	53.16%	51.06%	---
HOU	COL	Bud Norris vs Jeremy Guthrie	COL	52.94%	57.06%	---

Wednesday's Results: -0.6 units
Current ROI: 5.47%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

May 26th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CLE	CHA	Derek Lowe vs Jake Peavy	CHA	61.09%	57.69%	TBD
COL	CIN	Jeremy Guthrie vs Mike Leake	CIN	57.26%	55.57%	TBD
HOU	LAN	Bud Norris vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	52.61%	56.58%	TBD
TB	BOS	David Price vs Josh Beckett	BOS	51.92%	50.54%	TBD
TOR	TEX	Henderson Alvarez vs Colby Lewis	TEX	61.98%	65.33%	TBD
WAS	ATL	Stephen Strasburg vs Mike Minor	WAS	52.38%	53.03%	TBD
DET	MIN	Max Scherzer vs Carl Pavano	DET	56.71%	50.91%	TBD
NYA	OAK	C.C. Sabathia vs Bartolo Colon	NYA	61.69%	58.00%	TBD
KC	BAL	Felipe Paulino vs Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	52.83%	57.06%	TBD
SD	NYN	Clayton Richard vs Johan Santana	NYN	60.00%	61.15%	TBD
SF	FLA	Madison Bumgarner vs Mark Buehrle	FLA	51.92%	54.05%	TBD
LAA	SEA	Jerome Williams vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	55.75%	54.97%	TBD
CHN	PIT	Paul Maholm vs Kevin Correia	PIT	53.27%	54.13%	TBD
PHI	STL	Kyle Kendrick vs Jaime Garcia	STL	60.00%	63.75%	TBD
MIL	ARI	Zach Greinke vs Wade Miley	MIL	52.61%	65.07%	TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%

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Daily Baseball Lineups

May 20th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	SD	Ervin Santana vs Anthony Bass	SD	53.60%	49.56%	TBD
ARI	KC	Wade Miley vs Nathan Adcock	KC	52.94%	52.98%	TBD
ATL	TB	Tim Hudson vs David Price	TB	56.80%	56.08%	TBD
FLA	CLE	Josh Johnson vs Derek Lowe	FLA	50.86%	49.91%	TBD
MIN	MIL	Jason Marquis vs Zach Greinke	MIL	68.25%	68.18%	TBD
SEA	COL	Blake Beavan vs Jeremy Guthrie	COL	57.89%	NA	TBD
STL	LAN	Kyle Lohse vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	51.57%	47.80%	TBD
CIN	NYA	Johnny Cueto vs C.C. Sabathia	NYA	60.55%	62.23%	TBD
NYN	TOR	Dillon Gee vs Henderson Alvarez	TOR	61.83%	53.87%	TBD
OAK	SF	Bartolo Colon vs Tim Lincecum	SF	59.76%	58.25%	TBD
PIT	DET	Kevin Correia vs Max Scherzer	DET	62.89%	69.42%	TBD
TEX	HOU	Colby Lewis vs Jordan Lyles	TEX	60.86%	67.22%	TBD
BAL	WAS	Wei-Yin Chen vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	59.92%	55.00%	TBD
BOS	PHI	Josh Beckett vs Cliff Lee	PHI	59.43%	62.19%	TBD
CHA	CHN	Jake Peavy vs Paul Maholm	CHA	53.60%	62.04%	TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%
Notes: No bets for interleague games.

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MLB Depth Charts

May 15th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ARI	LAN	Wade Miley vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	56.99%	55.54%	TBD
CIN	ATL	Johnny Cueto vs Tim Hudson	ATL	52.04%	54.38%	TBD
DET	CHA	Max Scherzer vs Jake Peavy	CHA	55.26%	49.84%	TBD
KC	TEX	Vin Mazzaro vs Colby Lewis	TEX	69.70%	67.58%	TBD
OAK	LAA	Bartolo Colon vs Ervin Santana	LAA	59.76%	59.56%	TBD
SEA	BOS	Blake Beavan vs Josh Beckett	BOS	64.22%	65.65%	TBD
HOU	PHI	Jordan Lyles vs Cliff Lee	PHI	72.41%	72.42%	TBD
SD	WAS	Anthony Bass vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	68.15%	62.23%	TBD
CLE	MIN	Derek Lowe vs Jason Marquis	CLE	56.24%	54.50%	TBD
CHN	STL	Paul Maholm vs Kyle Lohse	STL	63.70%	67.12%	TBD
NYA	BAL	C.C. Sabathia vs Wei-Yin Chen	NYA	59.60%	57.67%	TBD
TB	TOR	David Price vs Henderson Alvarez	TB	50.25%	48.44%	TBD
MIL	NYN	Zach Greinke vs Dillon Gee	MIL	56.99%	55.75%	TBD
PIT	FLA	Kevin Correia vs Josh Johnson	FLA	64.60%	68.15%	TBD
COL	SF	Jeremy Guthrie vs Tim Lincecum	SF	58.76%	NA	TBD

Current ROI: 8.41%

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