Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/30

Notes:
- One million games simulated.
- Dodgers Vegas win expectancy 66.1%

Padres vs Dodgers - April 15th Simulation Results

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores
1. LAN 3-2
2. LAN 2-1
3. LAN 4-3
4. LAN 3-1
5. SD 2-1
6. SD 3-2
7. LAN 1-0
8. LAN 4-2
9. LAN 4-1
10. LAN 2-0
11. LAN 3-0
12. SD 4-3
13. LAN 4-3
14. LAN 4-0
15. LAN 5-1
16. LAN 5-2
17. SD 3-1
18. SD 1-0
19. SD 4-2
20. LAN 5-3

Dodgers vs Padres - April 10th Simulation Results

Once again, another screenshot of today's simulation box score along with the top 20 most likely scores.

Simulator:
Dodgers Win Expectancy: 53.91%
Dodgers RS: 3.43
Padres RS: 2.87

Vegas
Dodgers Win Expectancy: 53.27%
Total Runs: ~ 6.8

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores
1. SD 2-1
2. SD 3-2
3. LAN 2-1
4. LAN 3-2
5. SD 1-0
6. SD 4-3
7. LAN 3-1
8. LAN 1-0
9. SD 3-1
10. LAN 2-0
11. LAN 4-2
12. LAN 4-3
13. LAN 4-1
14. SD 2-0
15. LAN 3-0
16. SD 4-2
17. SD 5-4
18. LAN 4-0
19. LAN 5-2
20. LAN 5-1
.
.
100. LAN 10-6


(Click image for larger size)

 



September 4th - Padres vs Dodgers Simulation Results

                   |    Wins      Losses            RS          RA
  Dodgers  +----------------------------------------------------------
                   |    69489     30511        453637     297944

  Vegas Odds:
          Money Line: Dodgers -235/+225 (or Dodgers have a 69.7% chance of winning)
          Run Total:  Over 6-1/2 -110, Under 6-1/2 +100 (or 6.7 runs being scored)

  Starting Pitchers: Eric Stults vs Clayton Kershaw

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Chris Denorfia	4.319	1.130	0.761	0.264	0.014	0.091	0.309	0.239	0.287	1.051	0.308
Logan Forsythe	4.222	1.073	0.744	0.263	0.015	0.050	0.295	0.200	0.246	0.979	0.290
Chase Headley	4.060	1.049	0.698	0.240	0.005	0.106	0.394	0.175	0.358	1.298	0.317
Carlos Quentin	4.005	0.945	0.562	0.246	0.002	0.136	0.466	0.154	0.311	0.948	0.302
Yasmal Grandal	3.966	0.990	0.716	0.241	0.006	0.028	0.299	0.150	0.247	1.002	0.281
Jesus Guzman	3.836	1.005	0.646	0.257	0.007	0.095	0.379	0.145	0.263	1.047	0.314
Cameron Maybin	3.743	0.943	0.652	0.223	0.015	0.052	0.311	0.159	0.244	0.990	0.292
Everth Cabrera	3.547	0.862	0.601	0.207	0.010	0.044	0.331	0.137	0.329	1.041	0.293
Pitchers Spot	3.661	0.443	0.349	0.083	0.001	0.010	0.152	0.073	0.127	1.864	0.140
Dodgers
Mark Ellis	4.276	1.263	0.872	0.298	0.017	0.076	0.336	0.308	0.367	0.617	0.343
Shane Victorino	4.137	1.256	0.838	0.262	0.053	0.104	0.431	0.370	0.369	0.502	0.361
Adrian Gonzalez	4.137	1.339	0.929	0.265	0.006	0.140	0.645	0.242	0.315	0.709	0.376
Matt Kemp	3.969	1.344	0.832	0.317	0.027	0.167	0.691	0.284	0.380	0.731	0.410
Hanley Ramirez	3.866	1.249	0.785	0.310	0.023	0.131	0.659	0.253	0.379	0.646	0.390
Andre Ethier	3.799	1.104	0.784	0.210	0.007	0.103	0.552	0.183	0.334	0.819	0.343
Luis Cruz	3.780	1.127	0.702	0.336	0.007	0.082	0.501	0.187	0.237	0.571	0.346
A.J. Ellis	3.534	1.045	0.733	0.234	0.007	0.070	0.446	0.154	0.383	0.668	0.351
Pitchers Spot	3.654	0.600	0.472	0.111	0.003	0.014	0.198	0.115	0.164	1.310	0.186

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Eric Stults	5.653	3.712	1.970	7.178	0.625	93.315	4.370
Luke Gregerson	0.346	0.351	0.087	0.352	0.027	5.462	2.956
Dale Thayer	0.396	0.311	0.090	0.459	0.030	6.226	3.300
Brad Brach	0.582	0.667	0.247	0.590	0.063	9.819	3.590
Tom Layne	0.295	0.292	0.091	0.318	0.028	4.789	3.378
Cory Burns	0.236	0.228	0.088	0.256	0.019	3.907	3.438
Joe Thatcher	0.658	0.645	0.231	0.706	0.049	10.799	3.256
Nick Vincent	0.408	0.367	0.124	0.469	0.044	6.641	3.709
Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw	6.728	7.631	1.542	6.130	0.464	104.339	2.515
Brandon League	0.461	0.436	0.125	0.416	0.018	7.089	2.617
Ronald Belisario	0.372	0.407	0.112	0.326	0.020	5.841	2.605
Randy Choate	0.568	0.641	0.201	0.512	0.040	9.149	2.911
Javy Guerra	0.237	0.245	0.094	0.215	0.010	3.840	2.894
Matt Guerrier	0.141	0.127	0.052	0.139	0.009	2.266	3.368
Shawn Tolleson	0.498	0.490	0.190	0.484	0.041	8.086	3.442
Jamey Wright	0.239	0.243	0.097	0.221	0.011	3.881	2.978

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

May 7th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BOS	KC	Felix Doubront vs Jonathan Sanchez	BOS	51.10%	50.78%	TBD
CHA	CLE	Phil Humber vs Zach McAllister	CLE	51.57%	53.71%	TBD
CHA	CLE	Eric Stults vs Josh Tomlin	CLE	56.99%	55.60%	TBD
COL	SD	Drew Pomeranz vs Edinson Volquez	SD	51.10%	50.82%	TBD
SF	LAN	Barry Zito vs Ted Lilly	LAN	NA	60.93%	TBD
NYN	PHI	John Niese vs Roy Halladay	PHI	65.34%	66.71%	TBD
TEX	BAL	Matt Harrison vs Brian Matusz	TEX	58.76%	58.42%	TBD
ATL	CHN	Tommy Hanson vs Jeff Samardzija	ATL	54.65%	57.34%	TBD
FLA	HOU	Carlos Zambrano vs Wandy Rodriguez	HOU	52.04%	41.46%	TBD
LAA	MIN	Jered Weaver vs Francisco Liriano	LAA	63.83%	62.14%	TBD
CIN	MIL	Bronson Arroyo vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	55.06%	60.43%	TBD
STL	ARI	Lance Lynn vs Joe Saunders	STL	52.94%	56.39%	TBD
DET	SEA	Doug Fister vs Blake Beavan	DET	56.04%	62.75%	TBD

Current ROI: 9.02%

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts