Dodger Sims: Hyun-Jin Ryu

Showing posts with label Hyun-Jin Ryu. Show all posts

Monday, October 06, 2014

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total runs
Dodgers	Cardinals	Hyun-Jin Ryu	John Lackey	Dodgers	4.19	3.49	55.46	7.68

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Cardinals	Occurrences	Rank	Dodgers	Cardinals	Occurrences
1	2	3	38820	51	8	3	6124
2	1	2	33765	52	2	7	6086
3	3	4	33268	53	0	5	6039
4	3	2	31617	54	3	7	6034
5	2	1	28810	55	4	7	5888
6	4	3	25660	56	8	4	5319
7	3	1	25175	57	5	7	5116
8	4	2	24109	58	1	7	5106
9	4	5	23843	59	8	0	4806
10	4	1	20331	60	9	2	4778
11	1	3	19012	61	8	5	4552
12	2	4	18768	62	9	1	4522
13	5	2	18291	63	7	8	4397
14	5	3	18225	64	9	3	4183
15	2	0	18029	65	0	6	4139
16	5	4	17716	66	3	8	4125
17	0	1	17041	67	2	8	4077
18	3	0	16492	68	8	6	3729
19	1	0	16369	69	4	8	3644
20	5	1	15884	70	9	4	3557
21	5	6	15075	71	1	8	3431
22	1	4	14840	72	9	0	3281
23	3	5	14150	73	8	7	3256
24	4	0	13818	74	5	8	3254
25	2	5	13560	75	10	2	3213
26	6	3	13178	76	0	7	2988
27	6	2	13141	77	10	1	2982
28	0	2	12817	78	10	3	2861
29	6	1	12129	79	6	8	2841
30	6	4	11978	80	9	5	2827
31	5	0	11394	81	2	9	2720
32	6	5	11017	82	3	9	2704
33	0	3	10364	83	10	4	2451
34	1	5	10148	84	9	6	2374
35	7	2	9872	85	4	9	2336
36	3	6	9756	86	10	0	2267
37	2	6	9130	87	1	9	2175
38	7	3	9129	88	11	2	2070
39	7	1	9116	89	8	9	2067
40	6	0	9003	90	11	1	2027
41	4	6	8921	91	0	8	1987
42	6	7	8511	92	11	3	1876
43	7	4	8319	93	10	5	1872
44	0	4	8032	94	5	9	1863
45	1	6	7350	95	9	7	1842
46	7	5	7211	96	2	10	1802
47	8	2	6870	97	3	10	1752
48	7	0	6788	98	6	9	1752
49	8	1	6642	99	4	10	1545
50	7	6	6213	100	11	4	1544

Note: Based off of 1 million games simulated.
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Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores (1 million simualtions)

Rank	Dodgers	Dbacks	Occurrences	Rank	Dodgers	Dbacks	Occurrences
1	3	4	34142	51	0	1	6435
2	4	5	30476	52	2	0	6427
3	2	3	29708	53	4	0	6408
4	4	3	23951	54	5	8	6365
5	5	6	23097	55	0	2	6263
6	3	2	22405	56	1	7	6230
7	5	4	20734	57	8	7	6201
8	1	2	18841	58	0	3	6196
9	4	2	18166	59	2	8	6157
10	5	3	17860	60	6	8	5914
11	2	4	17693	61	0	4	5724
12	3	5	17436	62	5	0	5381
13	6	7	15529	63	8	9	5214
14	6	5	15417	64	1	0	5117
15	5	2	14933	65	3	9	5008
16	6	4	14475	66	9	3	4990
17	2	5	14371	67	9	4	4943
18	2	1	14324	68	0	5	4867
19	3	1	14309	69	8	1	4744
20	1	3	13562	70	4	9	4689
21	4	6	13558	71	1	8	4648
22	6	3	13424	72	6	0	4580
23	3	6	12750	73	9	2	4564
24	4	1	12443	74	2	9	4553
25	1	4	12098	75	9	5	4438
26	6	2	11511	76	5	9	4310
27	2	6	11274	77	9	6	4086
28	7	6	10431	78	0	6	4002
29	5	1	10388	79	6	9	3831
30	7	5	10280	80	9	7	3738
31	7	4	10197	81	9	1	3505
32	1	5	9986	82	7	0	3465
33	7	3	9701	83	3	10	3463
34	4	7	9670	84	9	8	3426
35	7	8	9416	85	10	3	3394
36	5	7	9386	86	10	4	3381
37	3	7	9363	87	4	10	3320
38	7	2	8798	88	7	9	3310
39	2	7	8483	89	1	9	3244
40	6	1	8465	90	10	2	3212
41	1	6	8013	91	2	10	3197
42	8	3	7104	92	5	10	2967
43	8	4	7061	93	10	5	2948
44	4	8	6956	94	0	7	2944
45	8	5	6898	95	9	10	2710
46	3	8	6832	96	8	0	2647
47	3	0	6740	97	10	6	2608
48	8	6	6540	98	6	10	2398
49	8	2	6523	99	10	1	2371
50	7	1	6518	100	3	11	2362

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Cardinals	Dodgers	Occurrences	Rank	Cardinals	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	5588	51	1	7	409
2	2	3	4837	52	2	7	402
3	2	1	4349	53	8	3	386
4	0	1	4108	54	3	7	375
5	3	2	3616	55	6	7	366
6	3	1	3297	56	7	5	365
7	1	0	3264	57	4	7	356
8	3	4	3223	58	9	2	321
9	2	0	3041	59	9	0	320
10	1	3	2654	60	9	1	319
11	4	2	2591	61	8	4	304
12	3	0	2521	62	5	7	286
13	0	2	2511	63	0	7	285
14	4	3	2464	64	7	6	261
15	4	1	2379	65	2	8	253
16	4	0	2025	66	9	3	251
17	2	4	2015	67	8	5	248
18	0	3	1830	68	1	8	227
19	4	5	1823	69	3	8	220
20	5	1	1790	70	10	1	217
21	1	4	1746	71	10	0	192
22	5	2	1684	72	10	2	184
23	5	3	1571	73	9	4	174
24	5	0	1423	74	0	8	169
25	5	4	1419	75	4	8	162
26	2	5	1273	76	8	6	160
27	6	1	1213	77	7	8	158
28	0	4	1209	78	2	9	156
29	3	5	1180	79	1	9	151
30	1	5	1149	80	10	3	137
31	6	2	1142	81	11	1	132
32	6	0	998	82	8	7	131
33	6	3	978	83	5	8	126
34	5	6	957	84	9	5	119
35	6	4	813	85	3	9	117
36	0	5	794	86	10	4	117
37	7	1	788	87	11	2	115
38	7	2	769	88	11	0	110
39	3	6	731	89	11	3	107
40	1	6	725	90	4	9	102
41	2	6	672	91	6	8	101
42	7	0	670	92	0	9	94
43	6	5	633	93	10	5	91
44	7	3	606	94	9	6	90
45	4	6	605	95	3	10	80
46	8	1	557	96	2	10	78
47	0	6	536	97	12	0	73
48	7	4	497	98	9	7	68
49	8	2	462	99	10	6	68
50	8	0	451	100	12	2	68

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Braves	Dodgers	Occurrences	Rank	Braves	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	5813	51	6	7	473
2	2	3	5395	52	7	3	459
3	0	1	3846	53	7	1	449
4	3	4	3696	54	7	4	420
5	2	1	3611	55	3	8	382
6	3	2	3411	56	0	8	355
7	1	3	3354	57	5	7	351
8	0	2	2885	58	7	5	350
9	2	4	2661	59	1	9	307
10	1	4	2574	60	7	0	305
11	0	3	2564	61	8	2	305
12	3	1	2478	62	2	9	303
13	1	0	2425	63	7	6	286
14	4	3	2402	64	4	8	275
15	4	2	2123	65	8	3	271
16	4	5	2044	66	0	9	270
17	2	0	1974	67	8	1	265
18	0	4	1972	68	3	9	255
19	2	5	1868	69	5	8	232
20	1	5	1775	70	8	4	214
21	4	1	1775	71	9	2	213
22	3	5	1534	72	1	10	211
23	3	0	1531	73	8	5	193
24	0	5	1486	74	7	8	186
25	5	3	1472	75	8	0	185
26	5	4	1342	76	9	3	178
27	5	2	1339	77	2	10	170
28	1	6	1220	78	4	9	169
29	2	6	1216	79	9	1	157
30	5	1	1109	80	8	6	140
31	4	0	1076	81	6	8	139
32	3	6	1063	82	3	10	131
33	5	6	1055	83	9	4	130
34	0	6	992	84	0	10	127
35	6	2	824	85	8	7	121
36	1	7	798	86	9	5	117
37	2	7	773	87	9	0	114
38	4	6	770	88	0	11	108
39	6	4	759	89	4	10	107
40	6	3	752	90	10	2	102
41	5	0	677	91	2	11	100
42	6	5	675	92	5	9	93
43	6	1	661	93	1	11	91
44	3	7	626	94	10	1	91
45	0	7	604	95	6	9	86
46	1	8	525	96	10	4	86
47	4	7	499	97	3	11	82
48	2	8	488	98	10	3	81
49	7	2	482	99	9	6	79
50	6	0	474	100	2	12	69

Notes:
- One million games simulated.
- Dodgers Vegas win expectancy 66.1%

Series Results...

Day	Away	Home	Away Starter	Home Starter	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win Probability	Total RS
Friday	Red Sox	Dodgers	John Lackey	Ricky Nolasco	Dodgers	3.648	3.777	54.130	7.425
Saturday	Red Sox	Dodgers	Jon Lester	Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	3.210	3.859	59.861	7.069
Sunday	Red Sox	Dodgers	Jake Peavy	Chris Capuano	Dodgers	3.516	3.818	56.365	7.334