San Francisco Giants - 2015 Most Optimal Lineup

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I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 San Francisco Giants.  I started out with over 2,000 permutations of lineups, a group that was filtered to remove such things as left handed hitters hitting back to back or the pitcher not hitting 8th or 9th etc... and I slowly widdled it down to the top 25 lineups.  I also compared the best lineup against the lineup that MLB Depth Charts (0.40 wins/162 games worse) shows as a likely lineup and also one of the worst lineups to see what kind of spread there is.  The top 25 lineups all came within a half of a win per 162 games so really anything in that range is pretty good.  When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems.  You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors.  It is not like Joe Panik's mom is going to be calling up Giants management in tears asking for Joe not to bat 4th because he is going to have to change his approach at the plate.  The simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups.  Sure, the Giants manager won't use many of these lineups because they might not be prototypical but that is not part of the exercise.  I typically simulated each lineup over 1 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher.  Below are a list of the top 25 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups.

                                          Top 25 Optimal Lineups

Rank	Lineup	Wins behind/162 games
1	Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Panik-Pence-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford	0.000
2	Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Belt-Pence-Panik-McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford	0.027
3	Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Belt-Pence-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher-Panik	0.060
4	Aoki-Pagan-Panik-Posey-Belt-Pence-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher	0.116
5	Crawford-Pagan-Belt-Posey-Aoki-Pence-Panik-McGeHee-Pitcher	0.239
6	Pence-Aoki-Posey-Belt-Pagan-Panik-McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford	0.247
7	Aoki-Pagan-Belt-Posey-Panik-Pence-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher	0.258
8	Aoki-Pagan-Belt-Posey-Crawford-Pence-Panik-McGeHee-Pitcher	0.263
9	Belt-Pagan-Panik-Posey-Aoki-Pence-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher	0.277
10	Pence-Aoki-Posey-Panik-Pagan-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford	0.286
11	Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Panik-Pence-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher-Belt	0.294
12	Aoki-Pagan-Panik-Posey-Crawford-Pence-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher	0.296
13	Crawford-Pagan-Panik-Posey-Aoki-Pence-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher	0.301
14	Aoki-Pence-Panik-Posey-Belt-Pagan-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher	0.321
15	Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Crawford-Pence-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher-Panik	0.325
16	Pagan-Aoki-Pence-Panik-Posey-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford	0.327
17	Pagan-Panik-Posey-Belt-Pence-Aoki-McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford	0.357
18	Belt-Pence-Crawford-Posey-Aoki-Pagan-Panik-McGeHee-Pitcher	0.360
19	Aoki-Pagan-Panik-Pence-Belt-Posey-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher	0.361
20	Crawford-Pagan-Panik-Pence-Aoki-Posey-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher	0.393
21	Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Belt-Pence-Panik-McGeHee-Crawford-Pitcher	0.400
22	Pence-Aoki-Posey-Belt-Pagan-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher-Panik	0.407
23	Pagan-Panik-Posey-Belt-Pence-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher-Aoki	0.428
24	Crawford-Pence-Panik-Posey-Aoki-Pagan-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher	0.442
25	Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Belt-Pence-Panik-McGeHee-Crawford-Pitcher	0.442
..
Bad	McGeHee-Belt-Pagan-Aoki-Pence-Panik-Crawford-Posey-Pitcher	2.438

             Batting Order Frequency Table

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
Pagan	19	17	0	0	5	9	0	0	0
Aoki	17	17	0	1	9	3	1	0	2
Posey	0	3	24	17	2	4	0	0	0
Belt	3	1	8	14	10	8	4	0	2
Pence	4	7	2	8	18	11	0	0	0
Panik	0	5	14	7	2	8	8	0	6
McGeHee	0	0	0	1	0	3	24	21	1
Crawford	7	0	2	2	4	4	13	8	10
Pitcher	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21	29

Synergy
20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences in Lineup:

Rank	Occurrences	Player 1	Player 2
1	37	McGeHee	Pitcher
2	22	Pagan	Panik
3	22	Posey	Belt
4	19	Aoki	Posey
5	18	Pitcher	Aoki
6	17	Aoki	Pagan
7	17	Belt	Pence
8	17	Pitcher	Crawford
9	16	Pence	Belt
10	16	Panik	McGeHee
11	15	Pagan	Aoki
12	15	Panik	Posey
13	13	Belt	McGeHee
14	13	Crawford	Pagan
15	13	Crawford	Pitcher
16	12	Pence	Panik
17	12	Panik	Pence
18	12	Crawford	McGeHee
19	11	McGeHee	Crawford
20	10	Aoki	Pence
20	10	Posey	Panik
20	10	Belt	Pagan
20	10	Belt	Posey

10 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences in Lineup:

Rank	Occurrences	Player 1	Player 2	Player 3
1	17	McGeHee	Pitcher	Crawford
2	15	Posey	Belt	Pence
3	12	Pagan	Aoki	Posey
4	12	Panik	McGeHee	Pitcher
5	12	McGeHee	Pitcher	Aoki
6	12	Crawford	McGeHee	Pitcher
7	12	Pitcher	Aoki	Pagan
8	11	Pagan	Panik	Posey
9	11	Aoki	Pagan	Panik
10	11	McGeHee	Crawford	Pitcher
10	11	Pitcher	Crawford	Pagan

                                      Analysis

Pagan:  The simulator likes the switch hitting Pagan batting first or second in the lineup.  There are a couple of permutations where the simulator likes Pagan batting sixth but he seems best suited for the top of the lineup which is where he is likely to bat in reality.

Aoki:  Like Pagan, the simulator pegs Aoki at one of the first two spots in the lineup with the occasional drop to fifth.  There are even two appearances in the top 50 lineups with Aoki batting 9th.

Posey:  The Giants will get the most bang for their buck with Posey hitting third or fourth which is really the only two spots the Giants would ever hit him in.

Belt:  Shows up in many different lineup spots with second thru sixth being the best spots for him.  Belt finds himself paired either in front of or immediately after Pence in the lineup in 33 of the top 50 lineups.  The threesome of Posey-Belt-Pence show up as the second most likely consecutive trio in the top lineups.

Pence:  Finds himself all over the radar on the first six lineup spots with fifth and sixth being his best spots.  Which is pretty much in line where Pence expects to bat in the 2015 lineup.

Panik:  Appears all over the place in the top 50 lineups.  The only two spots he doesn't appear in is leadoff and eighth.  Panik makes more than a few surprise appearances in the middle of the lineup in the top list which may come as a surprise.  The Giants won't likely bat him in the middle of the lineup but the simulator does not take into account psychological reasons (like experience) for not batting a player in a certain spot.  With the L-R-L requirement Panik ends up all over the place.

McGeHee:  Looks to be a solid fit at the seventh and eighth spots as a late source of power in the lineup before the black hole of the pitcher bats.  McGeHee-Pitcher is the number one most common consecutive batting duo in the lineup and McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford is the number one most common threesome.

Crawford:  He shows up all over the place but is a best fit hitting seventh, eighth, ninth or leadoff.

Pitcher: The pitcher shows up hitting eighth in 42% of the top lineups.  Most MLB managers will not hit the pitcher eighth for psychological reasons but if done correctly with the right personnel and lineup construction it is a good thing.

Giants vs Cardinals - NLCS Game 1 Simulation Results

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
Giants	Cardinals	Madison Bumgarner	Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	3.23	3.31	53.97	6.54

                                        Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Giants	Cardinals	Occurences		Rank	Giants	Cardinals	Occurences
1	1	2	51984		51	0	7	5049
2	2	3	50320		52	7	5	4734
3	3	4	37246		53	4	7	4615
4	2	1	35587		54	7	0	4435
5	3	2	34541		55	8	2	4376
6	0	1	32271		56	1	8	4193
7	1	3	29215		57	7	6	4147
8	3	1	25493		58	2	8	4038
9	4	3	25184		59	8	1	4010
10	0	2	23776		60	8	3	3931
11	1	0	23609		61	5	7	3809
12	2	4	23466		62	3	8	3513
13	4	5	22704		63	8	4	3331
14	4	2	21990		64	0	8	3204
15	1	4	21599		65	8	0	2960
16	2	0	21129		66	9	2	2800
17	0	3	20184		67	4	8	2727
18	4	1	17931		68	8	5	2682
19	3	0	16465		69	7	8	2668
20	0	4	15865		70	9	3	2550
21	5	3	15630		71	1	9	2523
22	2	5	15629		72	9	1	2518
23	5	4	15317		73	2	9	2498
24	1	5	15007		74	8	6	2225
25	5	2	14922		75	5	8	2223
26	3	5	14872		76	3	9	2169
27	5	1	13014		77	9	4	2044
28	4	0	12785		78	0	9	2016
29	5	6	12400		79	9	0	1902
30	0	5	11196		80	8	7	1814
31	6	2	10140		81	10	2	1755
32	2	6	10126		82	6	8	1728
33	1	6	9963		83	4	9	1639
34	6	3	9545		84	10	1	1635
35	5	0	9207		85	9	5	1633
36	3	6	9180		86	2	10	1542
37	6	4	9084		87	1	10	1521
38	6	1	8977		88	10	3	1498
39	6	5	8413		89	10	4	1292
40	4	6	7885		90	3	10	1269
41	0	6	7762		91	5	9	1249
42	1	7	6557		92	9	6	1221
43	6	0	6550		93	10	0	1151
44	7	2	6505		94	0	10	1148
45	2	7	6297		95	8	9	1096
46	7	3	6227		96	11	2	1046
47	7	1	6142		97	4	10	1022
48	6	7	5924		98	11	3	988
49	3	7	5468		99	6	9	985
50	7	4	5384		100	10	5	961

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Note: Based off of 1 millions games simulated.
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Giants vs Dodgers - Friday's Simulation Results

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
Giants	Dodgers	Madison Bumgarner	Paul Maholm	Giants	4.00408	3.28917	55.448	7.29325

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	4259		51	4	7	586
2	1	2	3706		52	0	5	572
3	3	4	3699		53	3	7	563
4	3	2	3406		54	5	7	559
5	2	1	2928		55	7	6	533
6	4	3	2693		56	2	7	506
7	3	1	2688		57	8	4	504
8	4	2	2568		58	8	0	467
9	4	5	2500		59	9	3	462
10	4	1	2287		60	9	2	454
11	1	3	2200		61	9	1	445
12	5	3	1959		62	1	7	421
13	0	1	1958		63	0	6	400
14	2	4	1958		64	8	5	388
15	5	2	1935		65	3	8	375
16	5	1	1797		66	7	8	372
17	5	4	1779		67	2	8	345
18	3	0	1713		68	8	6	320
19	2	0	1608		69	9	4	316
20	1	0	1573		70	4	8	287
21	3	5	1538		71	9	0	287
22	1	4	1529		72	1	8	280
23	5	6	1481		73	10	2	276
24	0	2	1461		74	10	1	273
25	6	3	1451		75	6	8	266
26	6	2	1437		76	9	5	264
27	4	0	1433		77	10	3	260
28	2	5	1395		78	5	8	256
29	6	1	1329		79	0	7	252
30	5	0	1222		80	8	7	249
31	6	4	1212		81	3	9	243
32	0	3	1136		82	10	4	230
33	6	5	1088		83	2	9	214
34	7	2	1084		84	10	0	212
35	7	1	1017		85	9	6	199
36	1	5	980		86	1	9	175
37	4	6	973		87	4	9	173
38	6	0	966		88	0	8	167
39	7	3	938		89	11	1	166
40	3	6	917		90	8	9	164
41	2	6	873		91	10	5	154
42	0	4	820		92	5	9	152
43	7	4	806		93	11	2	150
44	6	7	739		94	11	3	146
45	8	2	719		95	6	9	144
46	8	1	709		96	9	7	142
47	7	0	677		97	11	0	142
48	1	6	676		98	3	10	140
49	8	3	673		99	2	10	131
50	7	5	661		100	11	4	119

Giants vs Dodgers - Thursday's Simulation Results

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
Giants	Dodgers	Ryan Vogelsong	Josh Beckett	Dodgers	3.28815	4.06382	61.104	7.35197

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	4723		51	7	4	618
2	3	4	4028		52	5	7	590
3	1	2	3963		53	3	8	576
4	3	2	2855		54	7	5	560
5	1	3	2775		55	5	0	550
6	2	4	2727		56	7	1	479
7	4	5	2519		57	7	6	471
8	2	1	2466		58	4	8	455
9	4	3	2432		59	2	9	427
10	1	4	2350		60	0	8	416
11	2	5	2069		61	8	2	414
12	4	2	2050		62	8	4	409
13	0	1	2017		63	6	0	404
14	3	1	1952		64	1	9	390
15	0	2	1936		65	7	8	390
16	0	3	1907		66	3	9	379
17	3	5	1838		67	5	8	378
18	1	5	1732		68	8	3	374
19	5	4	1670		69	8	5	332
20	0	4	1588		70	8	1	308
21	5	3	1556		71	0	9	307
22	5	6	1547		72	4	9	304
23	4	1	1450		73	8	6	292
24	5	2	1415		74	6	8	288
25	3	6	1356		75	2	10	284
26	2	6	1351		76	1	10	267
27	1	6	1287		77	9	4	257
28	1	0	1239		78	7	0	248
29	0	5	1217		79	9	3	247
30	2	0	1171		80	9	2	236
31	4	6	1142		81	3	10	234
32	6	3	1080		82	5	9	230
33	6	5	1073		83	8	7	219
34	5	1	1040		84	9	1	197
35	2	7	1012		85	4	10	191
36	6	4	1012		86	2	11	189
37	3	0	982		87	0	10	185
38	0	6	937		88	1	11	185
39	6	2	926		89	8	9	184
40	1	7	924		90	9	5	183
41	3	7	860		91	6	9	177
42	6	7	849		92	9	6	161
43	4	7	775		93	10	3	161
44	4	0	762		94	3	11	157
45	6	1	712		95	9	7	151
46	7	3	704		96	10	2	144
47	1	8	662		97	5	10	140
48	7	2	660		98	10	4	138
49	0	7	659		99	8	0	134
50	2	8	647		100	6	10	128

Disclaimer: Game simulated 100K times.

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/16

                                            *** Simulation Results ***

                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences
1	2	3	4428		51	7	5	603
2	1	2	3966		52	7	6	573
3	3	4	3739		53	8	2	572
4	3	2	3445		54	0	6	553
5	2	1	3058		55	5	7	552
6	4	3	2824		56	8	3	496
7	3	1	2595		57	7	0	475
8	1	3	2522		58	2	8	458
9	4	2	2467		59	8	1	434
10	4	5	2386		60	3	8	422
11	2	4	2382		61	8	4	421
12	0	1	2065		62	8	5	378
13	4	1	2029		63	9	2	373
14	1	4	1882		64	0	7	350
15	5	4	1837		65	1	8	349
16	5	2	1781		66	4	8	339
17	5	3	1766		67	7	8	339
18	2	5	1752		68	9	3	338
19	3	5	1744		69	8	0	328
20	1	0	1725		70	5	8	303
21	0	2	1699		71	8	6	295
22	2	0	1665		72	9	1	286
23	3	0	1541		73	8	7	282
24	5	6	1474		74	2	9	258
25	0	3	1466		75	3	9	254
26	1	5	1375		76	0	8	250
27	5	1	1373		77	6	8	247
28	6	3	1226		78	9	4	246
29	4	0	1211		79	9	5	233
30	3	6	1182		80	1	9	231
31	6	2	1148		81	4	9	227
32	2	6	1142		82	5	9	219
33	0	4	1103		83	10	2	211
34	6	4	1098		84	10	3	199
35	6	5	1076		85	10	1	196
36	4	6	1013		86	9	0	193
37	6	1	977		87	10	4	174
38	1	6	895		88	2	10	166
39	5	0	888		89	9	6	161
40	7	3	823		90	3	10	159
41	0	5	820		91	6	9	146
42	7	2	801		92	1	10	143
43	2	7	733		93	10	0	134
44	7	4	721		94	10	5	134
45	3	7	716		95	0	9	132
46	7	1	712		96	11	3	132
47	6	7	706		97	8	9	131
48	6	0	693		98	5	10	128
49	4	7	657		99	9	7	128
50	1	7	621		100	11	1	121

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/15

                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences
1	2	3	4983		51	0	7	530
2	1	2	4825		52	7	5	502
3	3	4	3594		53	7	4	499
4	2	1	3495		54	2	8	495
5	3	2	3477		55	1	8	448
6	1	3	3078		56	5	7	444
7	0	1	2873		57	8	2	435
8	2	4	2574		58	3	8	398
9	4	3	2572		59	7	6	389
10	3	1	2564		60	8	3	369
11	0	2	2414		61	7	0	363
12	4	2	2373		62	0	8	353
13	1	4	2338		63	4	8	353
14	4	5	2156		64	8	1	343
15	1	0	2155		65	8	4	302
16	0	3	2048		66	2	9	298
17	2	0	1988		67	1	9	268
18	2	5	1849		68	7	8	265
19	4	1	1835		69	8	0	250
20	1	5	1687		70	3	9	242
21	3	5	1618		71	8	5	240
22	3	0	1584		72	5	8	237
23	0	4	1577		73	0	9	234
24	5	2	1554		74	9	1	231
25	5	3	1489		75	9	2	220
26	5	4	1478		76	9	3	219
27	0	5	1215		77	8	6	215
28	5	6	1200		78	6	8	203
29	5	1	1194		79	9	4	198
30	2	6	1178		80	4	9	190
31	1	6	1154		81	8	7	180
32	4	0	1130		82	1	10	167
33	3	6	1107		83	9	5	164
34	6	3	1027		84	2	10	157
35	6	2	949		85	10	3	154
36	6	4	886		86	3	10	152
37	4	6	831		87	9	0	148
38	6	1	801		88	10	1	147
39	6	5	792		89	5	9	140
40	0	6	781		90	10	2	133
41	5	0	776		91	4	10	132
42	2	7	685		92	2	11	131
43	1	7	683		93	0	10	127
44	7	2	661		94	9	6	120
45	3	7	643		95	10	4	117
46	6	0	597		96	8	9	104
47	4	7	596		97	1	11	99
48	7	3	586		98	9	7	95
49	6	7	571		99	6	9	92
50	7	1	540		100	3	11	86

Disclaimer: 100K simulations.

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/6

                             Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	52839		51	7	4	5130
2	2	3	51453		52	4	7	5049
3	3	4	37005		53	2	8	4671
4	2	1	35829		54	1	8	4606
5	3	2	34064		55	7	5	4153
6	0	1	33119		56	5	7	3903
7	1	3	31010		57	3	8	3811
8	3	1	26146		58	8	2	3752
9	0	2	26014		59	7	0	3729
10	2	4	24733		60	0	8	3674
11	4	3	24388		61	7	6	3510
12	1	4	23220		62	8	3	3430
13	0	3	22384		63	8	1	3388
14	4	2	22305		64	1	9	3094
15	1	0	22104		65	4	8	2981
16	4	5	22023		66	2	9	2915
17	2	0	20215		67	8	4	2881
18	4	1	18551		68	3	9	2385
19	2	5	17154		69	0	9	2358
20	0	4	16496		70	7	8	2355
21	3	0	16192		71	8	5	2321
22	1	5	15956		72	5	8	2320
23	3	5	15348		73	8	0	2303
24	5	2	14746		74	9	2	2185
25	5	3	14713		75	9	1	2124
26	5	4	14423		76	9	3	2023
27	5	1	12571		77	8	6	1913
28	0	5	12096		78	4	9	1908
29	4	0	11756		79	2	10	1893
30	5	6	11511		80	1	10	1884
31	2	6	11025		81	6	8	1707
32	1	6	10871		82	9	4	1696
33	3	6	10274		83	8	7	1541
34	6	2	9445		84	3	10	1517
35	6	3	9424		85	0	10	1490
36	6	1	8463		86	9	0	1398
37	5	0	8385		87	9	5	1385
38	0	6	8353		88	10	2	1308
39	4	6	8331		89	5	9	1293
40	6	4	8278		90	10	3	1182
41	6	5	7489		91	10	1	1167
42	1	7	7369		92	2	11	1136
43	2	7	7247		93	4	10	1110
44	3	7	6226		94	1	11	1093
45	7	2	6080		95	6	9	1058
46	7	3	5838		96	10	4	1008
47	6	0	5742		97	8	9	984
48	0	7	5677		98	9	6	974
49	7	1	5373		99	3	11	916
50	6	7	5307		100	0	11	837

Note: 1 million games simulated.

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/5

                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	47994		51	4	7	5272
2	1	2	47935		52	7	0	4953
3	3	4	36343		53	8	2	4695
4	2	1	35710		54	7	5	4624
5	3	2	35507		55	8	1	4419
6	0	1	28997		56	5	7	4326
7	3	1	28394		57	0	7	4297
8	1	3	26786		58	2	8	4254
9	4	3	25616		59	8	3	4075
10	4	2	24350		60	7	6	4070
11	2	4	22646		61	1	8	3933
12	4	5	22516		62	3	8	3796
13	1	0	22011		63	8	4	3432
14	0	2	21569		64	8	0	3236
15	4	1	21268		65	4	8	3024
16	2	0	20832		66	0	8	2868
17	1	4	19469		67	9	2	2837
18	3	0	18253		68	8	5	2798
19	0	3	17072		69	7	8	2790
20	5	2	16690		70	2	9	2729
21	5	3	16041		71	1	9	2689
22	2	5	15620		72	9	1	2636
23	5	4	15364		73	5	8	2547
24	3	5	15115		74	9	3	2482
25	5	1	15105		75	3	9	2420
26	4	0	14164		76	8	6	2276
27	1	5	13045		77	6	8	1997
28	0	4	12419		78	9	4	1984
29	5	6	12340		79	4	9	1970
30	6	2	11145		80	9	0	1936
31	6	3	10798		81	8	7	1816
32	5	0	10606		82	0	9	1773
33	6	1	10404		83	2	10	1707
34	3	6	9847		84	10	2	1686
35	2	6	9647		85	1	10	1676
36	6	4	9198		86	10	1	1580
37	0	5	9117		87	9	5	1542
38	1	6	8995		88	3	10	1531
39	4	6	8648		89	5	9	1489
40	6	5	8262		90	10	3	1440
41	7	2	7503		91	4	10	1241
42	6	0	7486		92	9	6	1217
43	7	1	7039		93	10	4	1166
44	7	3	6767		94	8	9	1146
45	2	7	6564		95	6	9	1137
46	0	6	6129		96	2	11	1125
47	1	7	6110		97	10	0	1118
48	6	7	6068		98	0	10	1103
49	7	4	5893		99	1	11	998
50	3	7	5870		100	3	11	979

Note: 1 million games simulated.

Best Lineup - San Francisco Giants

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the San Francisco Giants.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds

See the results after the jump

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences
1	2	3	48604		51	6	0	5232
2	1	2	45598		52	7	1	5184
3	3	4	37888		53	1	8	5137
4	3	2	36676		54	2	8	4970
5	2	1	35611		55	7	5	4792
6	1	3	29105		56	3	8	4351
7	4	3	28068		57	7	6	4307
8	3	1	26208		58	5	7	4306
9	0	1	25157		59	0	8	3697
10	2	4	24378		60	8	2	3580
11	4	2	23848		61	2	9	3515
12	4	5	23614		62	4	8	3461
13	1	4	22556		63	8	3	3422
14	0	2	20594		64	1	9	3404
15	1	0	19987		65	7	0	3253
16	0	3	19513		66	8	4	3093
17	4	1	18756		67	8	1	2982
18	2	0	18238		68	3	9	2894
19	2	5	17482		69	8	5	2676
20	5	4	17323		70	7	8	2668
21	5	3	16343		71	5	8	2585
22	3	5	15970		72	0	9	2534
23	1	5	15917		73	1	10	2396
24	5	2	15610		74	2	10	2384
25	0	4	15202		75	4	9	2346
26	3	0	15192		76	8	6	2201
27	5	1	12995		77	3	10	2076
28	5	6	12596		78	9	2	2045
29	2	6	11862		79	9	3	2008
30	4	0	11590		80	8	0	1979
31	3	6	10694		81	6	8	1942
32	1	6	10533		82	8	7	1865
33	0	5	10404		83	9	4	1785
34	6	3	10029		84	0	10	1731
35	6	2	9908		85	9	1	1665
36	6	4	9485		86	5	9	1606
37	6	5	9077		87	2	11	1584
38	4	6	8863		88	1	11	1538
39	6	1	8417		89	9	5	1426
40	5	0	8162		90	4	10	1407
41	0	6	7538		91	3	11	1377
42	2	7	7512		92	9	6	1203
43	1	7	7383		93	0	11	1145
44	3	7	6956		94	8	9	1126
45	7	3	6120		95	6	9	1120
46	6	7	6119		96	9	0	1078
47	7	2	6119		97	10	2	1070
48	4	7	5561		98	2	12	1046
49	7	4	5401		99	10	3	1017
50	0	7	5370		100	5	10	1009

Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation Results 9/26

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 9/25

Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurences		Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurences
1	2	3	44324		51	0	5	5874
2	3	4	39783		52	8	3	5838
3	1	2	35929		53	8	2	5742
4	3	2	35098		54	5	7	5477
5	4	3	30421		55	8	1	5078
6	2	1	28783		56	1	7	5008
7	4	5	27704		57	8	4	5001
8	4	2	26086		58	7	0	4972
9	3	1	25107		59	8	5	4162
10	1	3	22149		60	0	6	4150
11	2	4	21456		61	3	8	4143
12	4	1	20909		62	2	8	4125
13	5	4	20535		63	7	8	4032
14	5	3	20245		64	4	8	3830
15	5	2	19323		65	9	2	3568
16	0	1	16813		66	1	8	3515
17	5	6	16608		67	9	3	3362
18	1	4	16418		68	8	6	3289
19	3	5	16266		69	5	8	3251
20	5	1	16144		70	8	0	3090
21	2	0	15135		71	9	1	3037
22	2	5	14783		72	9	4	2937
23	3	0	14609		73	0	7	2925
24	1	0	13852		74	3	9	2777
25	6	2	13723		75	2	9	2771
26	6	3	13611		76	8	7	2758
27	0	2	13046		77	6	8	2560
28	4	0	13037		78	4	9	2457
29	6	4	12661		79	9	5	2450
30	6	5	11796		80	1	9	2374
31	6	1	11731		81	0	8	1956
32	0	3	11727		82	10	2	1955
33	1	5	11330		83	5	9	1920
34	3	6	10492		84	9	6	1904
35	5	0	10407		85	10	3	1889
36	4	6	10167		86	2	10	1871
37	2	6	9751		87	9	0	1863
38	7	2	9322		88	3	10	1820
39	7	3	9231		89	10	4	1763
40	0	4	8627		90	8	9	1713
41	6	7	8590		91	10	1	1686
42	7	4	8196		92	6	9	1544
43	7	1	7954		93	1	10	1537
44	6	0	7541		94	4	10	1535
45	1	6	7306		95	9	7	1467
46	7	5	6929		96	0	9	1384
47	3	7	6406		97	10	5	1380
48	2	7	6273		98	3	11	1262
49	4	7	6054		99	9	8	1260
50	7	6	5993		100	7	9	1250

Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation Results 9/25

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurences		Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurences
1	2	3	4836		51	4	7	526
2	1	2	4460		52	7	6	493
3	3	4	3818		53	2	8	469
4	3	2	3688		54	7	5	463
5	2	1	3485		55	0	7	457
6	4	3	2750		56	8	2	451
7	3	1	2740		57	3	8	425
8	0	1	2694		58	5	7	409
9	1	3	2660		59	1	8	406
10	4	5	2449		60	7	0	402
11	4	2	2443		61	8	1	398
12	2	4	2240		62	8	3	372
13	1	0	2037		63	8	4	327
14	4	1	2028		64	4	8	318
15	1	4	1993		65	0	8	288
16	0	2	1970		66	7	8	284
17	2	0	1946		67	3	9	280
18	0	3	1730		68	2	9	274
19	3	0	1719		69	1	9	272
20	5	3	1707		70	8	5	264
21	5	2	1678		71	9	3	261
22	5	4	1641		72	5	8	256
23	2	5	1586		73	8	0	242
24	3	5	1478		74	9	2	229
25	5	1	1466		75	0	9	228
26	4	0	1378		76	9	4	227
27	1	5	1364		77	4	9	222
28	5	6	1307		78	8	6	219
29	0	4	1289		79	1	10	217
30	6	2	1121		80	8	7	217
31	6	3	1116		81	9	1	215
32	2	6	1032		82	2	10	202
33	6	1	1020		83	6	8	183
34	6	4	1013		84	3	10	181
35	3	6	997		85	2	11	159
36	5	0	986		86	9	5	154
37	1	6	936		87	10	2	149
38	6	5	926		88	9	0	148
39	4	6	888		89	4	10	142
40	0	5	849		90	5	9	142
41	7	3	700		91	0	10	138
42	7	2	687		92	10	3	134
43	6	0	680		93	9	6	122
44	2	7	663		94	10	4	122
45	7	1	662		95	1	11	120
46	3	7	654		96	8	9	117
47	6	7	627		97	6	9	115
48	0	6	622		98	3	11	110
49	1	7	622		99	10	1	106
50	7	4	611		100	9	7	100

Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation Results 9/24

Giants vs Dodgers - Ides of September Simulation Results

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/14

Giants vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/13

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurences
1	1	2	63299
2	2	3	52536
3	0	1	50326
4	2	1	41940
5	3	4	33962
6	3	2	33754
7	1	0	33173
8	0	2	32807
9	1	3	31662
10	3	1	27540
11	2	0	26626
12	0	3	26284
13	1	4	23742
14	2	4	22838
15	4	3	21664
16	3	0	20132
17	4	2	20101
18	0	4	19701
19	4	1	18379
20	4	5	18303
21	1	5	16011
22	2	5	15827
23	4	0	13916
24	0	5	13366
25	3	5	13000
26	5	2	12842
27	5	3	12185
28	5	1	12170
29	5	4	11487
30	1	6	10093
31	2	6	9637
32	0	6	9113
33	5	0	8828
34	5	6	8712
35	3	6	8378
36	6	2	7897
37	6	1	7513
38	6	3	7149
39	1	7	6512
40	6	4	6427
41	4	6	6241
42	6	0	6058
43	0	7	6011
44	2	7	5937
45	6	5	5528
46	3	7	4871
47	7	1	4848
48	7	2	4718
49	7	3	4394
50	1	8	4304

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/13

Giants vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/12

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurences
1	2	3	49062
2	1	2	44716
3	3	4	39692
4	3	2	29432
5	1	3	28923
6	2	1	26815
7	2	4	25889
8	4	5	25782
9	0	1	24716
10	1	4	24574
11	4	3	23729
12	0	2	21391
13	0	3	20853
14	3	1	19975
15	2	5	19550
16	4	2	19440
17	1	5	17824
18	3	5	17500
19	0	4	17450
20	5	4	15485
21	4	1	14909
22	5	6	14672
23	5	3	14606
24	1	0	14332
25	5	2	13627
26	2	0	13048
27	2	6	12720
28	3	6	12229
29	0	5	12228
30	1	6	11703
31	3	0	10989
32	5	1	10501
33	4	6	10238
34	6	3	9828
35	6	4	9562
36	6	2	9241
37	6	5	9083
38	0	6	8996
39	4	0	8304
40	2	7	8255
41	1	7	8207
42	6	7	7497
43	3	7	7418
44	6	1	7288
45	4	7	6553
46	7	2	6313
47	7	3	6274
48	0	7	6139
49	5	0	5961
50	7	4	5888