Dbacks vs Dodgers - Friday's Simulation Results

                                         *** Simulation Results ***

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	51809		51	0	7	4922
2	2	3	51391		52	4	7	4885
3	3	4	37346		53	7	5	4410
4	2	1	35686		54	1	8	4161
5	3	2	35670		55	8	2	4142
6	0	1	31453		56	2	8	4069
7	1	3	30920		57	5	7	4015
8	3	1	26103		58	7	0	3962
9	4	3	25959		59	8	3	3839
10	2	4	25317		60	7	6	3798
11	0	2	24691		61	8	1	3719
12	4	2	23528		62	3	8	3497
13	1	4	22950		63	8	4	3253
14	4	5	22695		64	0	8	2966
15	1	0	21737		65	4	8	2724
16	0	3	20729		66	2	9	2588
17	2	0	19718		67	8	5	2526
18	4	1	19386		68	9	2	2524
19	2	5	16959		69	1	9	2512
20	3	0	16347		70	8	0	2468
21	5	3	15847		71	7	8	2418
22	5	2	15790		72	9	3	2298
23	3	5	15780		73	5	8	2240
24	0	4	15680		74	9	1	2176
25	1	5	15338		75	3	9	2112
26	5	4	15271		76	8	6	1997
27	5	1	13247		77	9	4	1911
28	4	0	12303		78	0	9	1907
29	5	6	11654		79	6	8	1694
30	0	5	11355		80	4	9	1583
31	2	6	10607		81	8	7	1566
32	1	6	10415		82	2	10	1531
33	6	2	10285		83	1	10	1521
34	3	6	10009		84	9	0	1489
35	6	3	9989		85	9	5	1464
36	6	4	9017		86	10	2	1410
37	6	1	8984		87	10	3	1292
38	5	0	8868		88	10	1	1271
39	4	6	8441		89	5	9	1245
40	6	5	8121		90	3	10	1209
41	0	6	7666		91	0	10	1144
42	7	2	6638		92	9	6	1117
43	2	7	6591		93	10	4	1071
44	1	7	6574		94	2	11	969
45	7	3	6220		95	1	11	930
46	6	0	6021		96	6	9	928
47	7	1	5861		97	8	9	928
48	3	7	5779		98	4	10	910
49	6	7	5426		99	11	2	841
50	7	4	5414		100	10	0	838

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 4/6

                             Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	52839		51	7	4	5130
2	2	3	51453		52	4	7	5049
3	3	4	37005		53	2	8	4671
4	2	1	35829		54	1	8	4606
5	3	2	34064		55	7	5	4153
6	0	1	33119		56	5	7	3903
7	1	3	31010		57	3	8	3811
8	3	1	26146		58	8	2	3752
9	0	2	26014		59	7	0	3729
10	2	4	24733		60	0	8	3674
11	4	3	24388		61	7	6	3510
12	1	4	23220		62	8	3	3430
13	0	3	22384		63	8	1	3388
14	4	2	22305		64	1	9	3094
15	1	0	22104		65	4	8	2981
16	4	5	22023		66	2	9	2915
17	2	0	20215		67	8	4	2881
18	4	1	18551		68	3	9	2385
19	2	5	17154		69	0	9	2358
20	0	4	16496		70	7	8	2355
21	3	0	16192		71	8	5	2321
22	1	5	15956		72	5	8	2320
23	3	5	15348		73	8	0	2303
24	5	2	14746		74	9	2	2185
25	5	3	14713		75	9	1	2124
26	5	4	14423		76	9	3	2023
27	5	1	12571		77	8	6	1913
28	0	5	12096		78	4	9	1908
29	4	0	11756		79	2	10	1893
30	5	6	11511		80	1	10	1884
31	2	6	11025		81	6	8	1707
32	1	6	10871		82	9	4	1696
33	3	6	10274		83	8	7	1541
34	6	2	9445		84	3	10	1517
35	6	3	9424		85	0	10	1490
36	6	1	8463		86	9	0	1398
37	5	0	8385		87	9	5	1385
38	0	6	8353		88	10	2	1308
39	4	6	8331		89	5	9	1293
40	6	4	8278		90	10	3	1182
41	6	5	7489		91	10	1	1167
42	1	7	7369		92	2	11	1136
43	2	7	7247		93	4	10	1110
44	3	7	6226		94	1	11	1093
45	7	2	6080		95	6	9	1058
46	7	3	5838		96	10	4	1008
47	6	0	5742		97	8	9	984
48	0	7	5677		98	9	6	974
49	7	1	5373		99	3	11	916
50	6	7	5307		100	0	11	837

Note: 1 million games simulated.

Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 4/1

                            Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Padres	Count		Rank	Dodgers	Padres	Count
1	1	2	56076		51	8	1	4259
2	2	3	50167		52	6	7	4171
3	2	1	44810		53	0	7	4118
4	3	2	38920		54	8	2	4040
5	0	1	38344		55	4	7	3693
6	3	4	33286		56	7	5	3660
7	1	0	31779		57	8	3	3417
8	3	1	31755		58	8	0	3345
9	1	3	29255		59	1	8	3229
10	2	0	28165		60	2	8	3213
11	0	2	26066		61	7	6	3151
12	4	3	25388		62	5	7	2978
13	4	2	24535		63	3	8	2679
14	2	4	22347		64	9	1	2583
15	3	0	22016		65	8	4	2580
16	4	1	21791		66	0	8	2514
17	0	3	20385		67	9	2	2432
18	1	4	20329		68	4	8	2171
19	4	5	18871		69	9	0	2101
20	4	0	16015		70	8	5	2063
21	5	2	15775		71	9	3	1973
22	5	1	15072		72	1	9	1966
23	5	3	14976		73	2	9	1964
24	0	4	14814		74	7	8	1742
25	2	5	14510		75	3	9	1597
26	5	4	14122		76	8	6	1587
27	1	5	13397		77	5	8	1573
28	3	5	13094		78	9	4	1547
29	5	0	11382		79	10	1	1497
30	6	2	10137		80	10	2	1444
31	6	1	9912		81	0	9	1422
32	0	5	9896		82	8	7	1313
33	5	6	9485		83	6	8	1279
34	6	3	9188		84	10	0	1257
35	2	6	8861		85	10	3	1173
36	1	6	8614		86	4	9	1163
37	3	6	7912		87	2	10	1154
38	6	4	7797		88	9	5	1150
39	6	0	7743		89	1	10	1118
40	6	5	6941		90	3	10	941
41	4	6	6638		91	5	9	911
42	7	1	6478		92	11	1	888
43	0	6	6382		93	0	10	845
44	7	2	6379		94	9	6	835
45	7	3	5638		95	10	4	829
46	2	7	5389		96	11	2	817
47	1	7	5358		97	4	10	759
48	7	0	5114		98	6	9	675
49	3	7	4589		99	1	11	670
50	7	4	4562		100	10	5	663

Notes: 1 million games were simulated.

Zack Greinke, All I Want For Christmas

The Dodgers are a leading candidate to land free agent Zack Greinke, so let me take a look at his comparables.  Remember I am looking at three of the most skill related peripherals, and taking data from both the 2011 and 2012 season with a heavier weight on the 2012 numbers.  The Dodgers would love to have a second starting pitcher who can come close to matching the skillset and results of Clayton Kershaw.  If you are going to spend all this money, you mind as well make sure you've loaded your team to the brink of being a heavy favorite.  A healthy Zach Greinke would do just that.  His peripherals on the K/9 and BB/9 are almost an exact match of those of Kershaw.  Greinke has a better GB/FB ratio than Kershaw which in general is a good thing as less fly balls equals less homeruns.  The only draw back for a ground ball pitcher on the Dodgers might be Hanley Ramirez or Dee Gordon's glove out at SS.  But you can't hang that on the pitcher.  Ho! Ho! Ho!


Top 50 Most Similar Starting Pitchers

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
NA	Zack Greinke	9.17	2.32	1.64
1	Clayton Kershaw	9.26	2.34	1.27
2	Cole Hamels	8.71	2.06	1.36
3	James Shields	8.55	2.32	1.59
4	CC Sabathia	8.81	2.12	1.56
5	Madison Bumgarner	8.32	2.09	1.41
6	Matt Garza	8.68	2.83	1.42
7	Felix Hernandez	8.62	2.33	1.68
8	David Price	8.75	2.52	1.61
9	Anibal Sanchez	8.29	2.49	1.37
10	Chris Sale	9.00	2.36	1.39
11	Jeff Samardzija	9.30	2.89	1.35
12	Adam Wainwright	8.36	2.36	1.93
13	Jarrod Parker	6.87	3.11	1.44
14	Stephen Strasburg	10.97	2.55	1.31
15	Josh Johnson	7.87	3.05	1.52
16	Johnny Cueto	6.73	2.24	1.70
17	Roy Halladay	8.03	1.73	1.51
18	Cliff Lee	8.99	1.37	1.29
19	Justin Verlander	9.01	2.18	1.09
20	Ryan Vogelsong	7.33	3.02	1.21
21	Doug Fister	6.96	1.84	1.70
22	Ian Kennedy	8.06	2.32	0.92
23	Matt Cain	7.68	2.27	0.96
24	Josh Beckett	7.46	2.62	1.08
25	C.J. Wilson	7.95	3.63	1.63
26	Vance Worley	7.51	3.10	1.35
27	Hiroki Kuroda	6.97	2.13	1.56
28	Gio Gonzalez	9.14	3.67	1.52
29	Jordan Zimmermann	7.01	1.90	1.16
30	R.A. Dickey	7.82	2.18	1.43
31	Chris Carpenter	7.15	2.03	1.49
32	Mat Latos	8.18	2.80	1.18
33	Jon Lester	7.74	3.18	1.63
34	Daniel Hudson	6.99	2.12	1.06
35	Wandy Rodriguez	6.67	2.73	1.44
36	Yovani Gallardo	9.00	3.19	1.41
37	Jaime Garcia	7.25	2.27	1.99
38	Ivan Nova	7.10	3.02	1.55
39	Brandon Beachy	9.20	3.07	0.87
40	Roy Oswalt	6.58	2.07	1.31
41	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
42	Edwin Jackson	7.50	2.78	1.35
43	Derek Holland	7.52	2.80	1.18
44	Jeff Niemann	7.33	2.59	1.44
45	Wade Miley	6.75	1.88	1.26
46	Chad Billingsley	7.53	3.28	1.36
47	Felipe Paulino	8.95	3.61	1.23
48	Jon Niese	7.53	2.39	1.66
49	Dillon Gee	7.23	3.10	1.57
50	Gavin Floyd	7.45	2.86	1.29

Links to other player comparables...

Clayton Kershaw
Josh Beckett
Chris Capuano
Aaron Harang
Ted Lilly
Chad Billingsley

May 31st Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

			Vegas	Win Probability
Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas	Simulator	Units Bet
DET	BOS	Max Scherzer vs Josh Beckett	BOS	57.17%	52.62%	---
MIL	LAN	Zach Greinke vs Chad Billingsley	MIL	53.16%	51.06%	---
HOU	COL	Bud Norris vs Jeremy Guthrie	COL	52.94%	57.06%	---

Wednesday's Results: -0.6 units
Current ROI: 5.47%

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April 18th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	CHA	Tommy Hunter vs Jake Peavy	CHA	59.10%	56.77%	TBD
DET	KC	Max Scherzer vs Jonathan Sanchez	DET	55.06%	55.05%	TBD
NYN	ATL	R.A. Dickey vs Jair Jurrjens	ATL	55.65%	56.37%	TBD
OAK	LAA	Bartolo Colon vs Ervin Santana	LAA	61.01%	62.69%	TBD
TEX	BOS	Derek Holland vs Josh Beckett	BOS	53.38%	47.54%	TBD
PIT	ARI	James McDonald vs Daniel Hudson	ARI	62.19%	59.56%	TBD
HOU	WAS	Lucas Harrell vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	65.64%	65.80%	TBD
MIN	NYA	Jason Marquis vs Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	68.75%	66.38%	TBD
TB	TOR	David Price vs Brandon Morrow	TOR	52.27%	50.35%	TBD
CHN	FLA	Matt Garza vs Mark Buehrle	FLA	55.26%	55.46%	TBD
LAN	MIL	Chris Capuano vs Zach Greinke	MIL	61.54%	67.35%	TBD
CIN	STL	Mat Latos vs Jaime Garcia	STL	55.06%	51.27%	TBD
SD	COL	Clayton Richard vs Juan Nicasio	COL	59.10%	64.66%	TBD
CLE	SEA	Derek Lowe vs Jason Vargas	CLE	50.74%	49.46%	TBD
PHI	SF	Cliff Lee vs Matt Cain	SF	50.86%	50.29%	TBD

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August 17th Simulations

Eovaldi Given Tough Task ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Brewers	N.Eovaldi vs Z.Greinke	Brewers	65.46%	69.19%	MIL 3-1
STL	PIT	Kyle Lohse vs Paul Maholm	STL	TBD	55.054	STL 7-2
TOR	SEA	Brandon Morrow vs Blake Beavan	TOR	TBD	57.995	TBD
NYA	KC	Bartolo Colon vs Bruce Chen	NYA	TBD	59.752	TBD
SF	ATL	Matt Cain vs Jair Jurrjens	ATL	TBD	51.988	TBD
NYN	SD	Dillon Gee vs Mat Latos	SD	TBD	61.198	TBD
TB	BOS	David Price vs John Lackey	BOS	TBD	58.813	TBD
FLA	COL	Ricky Nolasco vs Aaron Cook	COL	TBD	61.644	TBD
ARI	PHI	Joe Saunders vs Cliff Lee	PHI	TBD	70.064	TBD
BAL	OAK	Alfredo Simon vs Brandon McCarthy	OAK	TBD	59.63	TBD
CIN	WAS	Johnny Cueto vs Ross Detwiler	CIN	TBD	54.064	TBD
CHN	HOU	Casey Coleman vs Bud Norris	HOU	TBD	53.405	TBD
CLE	CHA	Fausto Carmona vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	TBD	54.314	TBD
MIN	DET	Carl Pavano vs Brad Penny	DET	TBD	53.365	TBD
TEX	LAA	C.J. Wilson vs Ervin Santana	TEX	TBD	57.15	TBD

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