Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 4/2

Away	Home	Starter	Starter	Favorite	Dodgers Runs	Padres Runs	Win %	Total Runs
Dodgers	Padres	Dan Haren	Tyson Ross	Padres	2.902	3.106	54.6%	6.01

                                Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Padres	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Padres	Occurrences
1	1	2	5697		51	6	7	417
2	2	3	5091		52	7	5	391
3	2	1	4290		53	7	0	385
4	0	1	4086		54	8	2	383
5	3	2	3846		55	1	8	382
6	3	4	3402		56	2	8	379
7	1	3	3280		57	4	7	358
8	0	2	3002		58	8	1	326
9	1	0	2947		59	7	6	319
10	3	1	2811		60	3	8	308
11	4	3	2557		61	8	3	308
12	0	3	2482		62	0	8	296
13	2	4	2392		63	5	7	293
14	2	0	2347		64	8	4	269
15	1	4	2337		65	8	0	231
16	4	2	2319		66	1	9	227
17	4	1	1957		67	4	8	225
18	4	5	1894		68	8	5	211
19	0	4	1858		69	9	1	205
20	3	0	1701		70	2	9	200
21	1	5	1579		71	9	2	196
22	5	3	1531		72	0	9	194
23	2	5	1511		73	7	8	184
24	5	2	1461		74	9	3	182
25	3	5	1406		75	3	9	178
26	5	4	1399		76	8	6	163
27	5	1	1299		77	1	10	154
28	0	5	1283		78	10	2	153
29	4	0	1257		79	5	8	152
30	2	6	1007		80	9	0	152
31	1	6	959		81	9	4	151
32	6	2	958		82	8	7	129
33	5	6	918		83	10	1	129
34	6	3	908		84	4	9	119
35	6	1	850		85	9	5	117
36	5	0	842		86	10	3	112
37	0	6	837		87	6	8	109
38	3	6	835		88	2	10	108
39	6	4	770		89	0	10	95
40	4	6	700		90	3	10	95
41	6	5	691		91	5	9	87
42	1	7	664		92	1	11	82
43	2	7	618		93	9	6	82
44	7	2	589		94	10	0	78
45	6	0	584		95	4	10	71
46	7	1	553		96	10	5	71
47	7	3	550		97	10	4	68
48	0	7	538		98	11	2	66
49	3	7	514		99	2	11	63
50	7	4	494		100	11	1	63

Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 4/1

                            Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Padres	Count		Rank	Dodgers	Padres	Count
1	1	2	56076		51	8	1	4259
2	2	3	50167		52	6	7	4171
3	2	1	44810		53	0	7	4118
4	3	2	38920		54	8	2	4040
5	0	1	38344		55	4	7	3693
6	3	4	33286		56	7	5	3660
7	1	0	31779		57	8	3	3417
8	3	1	31755		58	8	0	3345
9	1	3	29255		59	1	8	3229
10	2	0	28165		60	2	8	3213
11	0	2	26066		61	7	6	3151
12	4	3	25388		62	5	7	2978
13	4	2	24535		63	3	8	2679
14	2	4	22347		64	9	1	2583
15	3	0	22016		65	8	4	2580
16	4	1	21791		66	0	8	2514
17	0	3	20385		67	9	2	2432
18	1	4	20329		68	4	8	2171
19	4	5	18871		69	9	0	2101
20	4	0	16015		70	8	5	2063
21	5	2	15775		71	9	3	1973
22	5	1	15072		72	1	9	1966
23	5	3	14976		73	2	9	1964
24	0	4	14814		74	7	8	1742
25	2	5	14510		75	3	9	1597
26	5	4	14122		76	8	6	1587
27	1	5	13397		77	5	8	1573
28	3	5	13094		78	9	4	1547
29	5	0	11382		79	10	1	1497
30	6	2	10137		80	10	2	1444
31	6	1	9912		81	0	9	1422
32	0	5	9896		82	8	7	1313
33	5	6	9485		83	6	8	1279
34	6	3	9188		84	10	0	1257
35	2	6	8861		85	10	3	1173
36	1	6	8614		86	4	9	1163
37	3	6	7912		87	2	10	1154
38	6	4	7797		88	9	5	1150
39	6	0	7743		89	1	10	1118
40	6	5	6941		90	3	10	941
41	4	6	6638		91	5	9	911
42	7	1	6478		92	11	1	888
43	0	6	6382		93	0	10	845
44	7	2	6379		94	9	6	835
45	7	3	5638		95	10	4	829
46	2	7	5389		96	11	2	817
47	1	7	5358		97	4	10	759
48	7	0	5114		98	6	9	675
49	3	7	4589		99	1	11	670
50	7	4	4562		100	10	5	663

Notes: 1 million games were simulated.

Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 3/30

                                             Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	LAN	SD	Count		Rank	LAN	SD	Count
1	1	2	63372		51	7	4	3538
2	2	3	50442		52	8	1	3329
3	2	1	50127		53	1	8	3232
4	0	1	49629		54	8	2	3187
5	1	0	41080		55	6	7	2959
6	3	2	38846		56	4	7	2914
7	0	2	33625		57	7	5	2820
8	1	3	32681		58	8	0	2766
9	2	0	32648		59	2	8	2751
10	3	1	32492		60	0	8	2678
11	3	4	30468		61	8	3	2662
12	0	3	26056		62	7	6	2331
13	4	3	23522		63	5	7	2247
14	3	0	23089		64	3	8	2153
15	4	2	22796		65	9	1	2023
16	2	4	22177		66	8	4	1957
17	1	4	22148		67	9	2	1851
18	4	1	21139		68	1	9	1736
19	0	4	18623		69	2	9	1640
20	4	5	15670		70	9	0	1617
21	4	0	15404		71	4	8	1561
22	1	5	14530		72	8	5	1548
23	5	2	13876		73	9	3	1539
24	2	5	13777		74	0	9	1518
25	5	1	13404		75	3	9	1242
26	5	3	13113		76	5	8	1175
27	0	5	12291		77	10	1	1170
28	5	4	12112		78	8	6	1130
29	3	5	11725		79	7	8	1114
30	5	0	10538		80	9	4	1075
31	1	6	8849		81	10	2	1071
32	6	2	8717		82	1	10	975
33	6	1	8420		83	8	7	949
34	2	6	8242		84	2	10	929
35	0	6	7868		85	10	0	926
36	6	3	7620		86	0	10	877
37	6	0	7040		87	4	9	870
38	5	6	6993		88	9	5	867
39	3	6	6850		89	6	8	864
40	6	4	6337		90	10	3	848
41	6	5	5554		91	3	10	647
42	4	6	5519		92	9	6	623
43	7	1	5468		93	10	4	617
44	1	7	5440		94	11	1	605
45	7	2	5281		95	5	9	600
46	0	7	4752		96	11	2	567
47	2	7	4733		97	11	0	536
48	7	3	4570		98	1	11	535
49	7	0	4384		99	11	3	531
50	3	7	3839		100	2	11	509

Notes: Game simulated one million times.

Best Lineup - San Diego Padres

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the San Diego Padres.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays
NL: Mets | Cubs

See the results after the jump...

Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 9/22

Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 9/20

Padres vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/1

Rank	Padres	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	70182
2	2	3	60577
3	0	1	48994
4	2	1	40227
5	3	4	38878
6	1	3	36949
7	0	2	34253
8	3	2	33789
9	1	0	28401
10	0	3	27852
11	1	4	26922
12	2	4	26373
13	3	1	25418
14	2	0	22441
15	4	3	21318
16	4	5	20652
17	0	4	20307
18	4	2	18573
19	3	0	17981
20	2	5	17879
21	1	5	17845
22	4	1	16626
23	3	5	14803
24	0	5	14334
25	4	0	11995
26	1	6	11834
27	5	4	11124
28	5	3	10895
29	2	6	10791
30	5	2	10559
31	0	6	10075
32	5	1	9809
33	5	6	9426
34	3	6	9066
35	1	7	7848
36	4	6	7122
37	2	7	6884
38	5	0	6853
39	0	7	6567
40	6	2	6105
41	6	3	5701
42	6	1	5649
43	6	4	5399
44	3	7	5310
45	6	5	5194
46	1	8	4885
47	6	0	4456
48	2	8	4425
49	0	8	4236
50	4	7	4141

Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/1

Padres vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Padres	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	55788
2	1	2	51212
3	3	4	44778
4	3	2	32576
5	1	3	30687
6	2	1	29992
7	4	5	28260
8	0	1	27658
9	2	4	27346
10	4	3	24843
11	1	4	23507
12	0	2	22468
13	3	1	21829
14	4	2	20038
15	0	3	19545
16	2	5	19090
17	3	5	18663
18	4	1	16462
19	1	5	15952
20	5	6	15729
21	1	0	15558
22	5	4	15481
23	0	4	15181
24	2	0	14327
25	5	3	14262
26	3	0	13407
27	5	2	12944
28	2	6	12185
29	3	6	11785
30	0	5	11092
31	1	6	11041
32	5	1	11034
33	4	6	10413
34	4	0	10100
35	6	2	8484
36	6	4	8458
37	6	5	8440
38	6	3	8335
39	2	7	8203
40	0	6	7738
41	1	7	7515
42	6	7	7439
43	3	7	7258
44	6	1	6969
45	5	0	6434
46	4	7	6407
47	2	8	5503
48	7	2	5281
49	0	7	5274
50	7	3	5209

Pitching Matchup: Andrew Cashner vs Chris Capuano

Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/31

Padres vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 8/30

Rank	Padres	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	61605
2	2	3	58593
3	3	4	42281
4	0	1	39083
5	1	3	35723
6	2	1	32364
7	0	2	31376
8	3	2	31309
9	2	4	27827
10	1	4	27289
11	0	3	27192
12	4	5	24845
13	4	3	21571
14	3	1	21226
15	0	4	20705
16	1	0	19541
17	2	5	19382
18	1	5	18799
19	4	2	17739
20	3	5	17020
21	2	0	15908
22	0	5	15362
23	4	1	14752
24	3	0	13197
25	1	6	13139
26	5	4	12646
27	2	6	12384
28	5	6	12182
29	5	3	11590
30	0	6	10731
31	5	2	10656
32	3	6	10651
33	5	1	9332
34	4	0	9317
35	1	7	8857
36	4	6	8739
37	2	7	8133
38	0	7	7530
39	6	2	6731
40	6	4	6449
41	6	5	6417
42	3	7	6391
43	6	3	6376
44	1	8	6005
45	6	7	5738
46	5	0	5644
47	2	8	5548
48	6	1	5449
49	4	7	5044
50	0	8	4914

Pitching Matchup: Eric Stults vs Hyun-Jin Ryu

Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/30

Notes:
- One million games simulated.
- Dodgers Vegas win expectancy 66.1%

July 3rd, National League West Vegas Odds

Las Vegas odds for each National League West team for games played on Wednesday, July 3rd.  According to the odds, the Dodgers have a good chance to gain ground on the other National League West teams.

Away	Home	Away Starter	Home Starter	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Padres	Red Sox	Edinson Volquez	Jon Lester	Red Sox	64.1%	9.8
Giants	Reds	Barry Zito	Tony Cingrani	Reds	63.6%	8.9
Dbacks	Mets	Randall Delgado	Matt Harvey	Mets	64.3%	6.7
Dodgers	Rockies	Zack Greinke	Tyler Chatwood	Dodgers	52.5%	9.2

Padres vs Dodgers - June 5th Simulation Results

The simulator has the Dodgers as a heavy favorite to win the game tonight. Vegas odds are right in line with the simulation results as Vegas gives the Dodgers right around a 67% chance of winning this game.

Padres vs Dodgers - April 17th Simulation Results

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores
1. LAN 2-1
2. LAN 3-2
3. LAN 1-0
4. LAN 2-0
5. LAN 3-0
6. LAN 3-1
7. SD 2-1
8. LAN 4-3
9. LAN 4-0
10. LAN 4-1
11. SD 3-2
12. LAN 4-2
13. SD 1-0
14. LAN 5-0
15. LAN 5-1
16. SD 4-3
17. SD 3-1
18. LAN 5-2
19. LAN 6-0
20. SD 2-0

Padres vs Dodgers - April 16th Simulation Results

Top 25 Most Likely Final Scores
1. LAN 3-2
2. LAN 2-1
3. LAN 4-3
4. SD 3-2
5. SD 2-1
6. LAN 3-1
7. LAN 1-0
8. LAN 4-2
9. SD 4-3
10. LAN 5-4
11. LAN 4-1
12. SD 3-1
13. LAN 2-0
14. SD 4-2
15. LAN 3-0
16. LAN 5-2
17. SD 1-0
18. LAN 5-3
19. LAN 5-1
20.LAN 4-0
21. SD 2-0
22. SD 5-4
23. SD 5-3
24. SD 4-1
25. LAN 6-5

Padres vs Dodgers - April 15th Simulation Results

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores
1. LAN 3-2
2. LAN 2-1
3. LAN 4-3
4. LAN 3-1
5. SD 2-1
6. SD 3-2
7. LAN 1-0
8. LAN 4-2
9. LAN 4-1
10. LAN 2-0
11. LAN 3-0
12. SD 4-3
13. LAN 4-3
14. LAN 4-0
15. LAN 5-1
16. LAN 5-2
17. SD 3-1
18. SD 1-0
19. SD 4-2
20. LAN 5-3

Dodgers vs Padres - April 11th Simulation Results

Simulator:
Dodgers Win Expectancy: 55.35%
Dodgers RS: 3.26
Padres RS: 2.60

Vegas
Dodgers Win Expectancy: 60.86%
Total Runs: ~ 6.8

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores
1. SD 2-1
2. SD 3-2
3. LAN 2-1
4. SD 1-0
5. LAN 3-2
6. LAN 3-1
7. SD 4-3
8. LAN 1-0
9. LAN 2-0
10. LAN 3-0
11. SD 3-1
12. LAN 4-1
13. SD 2-0
14. LAN 4-2
15. LAN 4-3
16. LAN 4-0
17. SD 4-2
18. LAN 5-1
19. SD 5-4
20. LAN 5-2
.
.
100. LAN 9-7

Dodgers vs Padres - April 10th Simulation Results

Once again, another screenshot of today's simulation box score along with the top 20 most likely scores.

Simulator:
Dodgers Win Expectancy: 53.91%
Dodgers RS: 3.43
Padres RS: 2.87

Vegas
Dodgers Win Expectancy: 53.27%
Total Runs: ~ 6.8

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores
1. SD 2-1
2. SD 3-2
3. LAN 2-1
4. LAN 3-2
5. SD 1-0
6. SD 4-3
7. LAN 3-1
8. LAN 1-0
9. SD 3-1
10. LAN 2-0
11. LAN 4-2
12. LAN 4-3
13. LAN 4-1
14. SD 2-0
15. LAN 3-0
16. SD 4-2
17. SD 5-4
18. LAN 4-0
19. LAN 5-2
20. LAN 5-1
.
.
100. LAN 10-6


(Click image for larger size)

 



Dodgers vs Padres - April 9th Simulation Results

Here are the simulation results for the April 9th game between the Dodgers and the Padres

Dodgers vs Padres
Josh Beckett vs Clayton Richards

Record: 4-2 (0.667)
RS: 17
RA: 10
Pythag Win%: 0.725
Pythag Pace: 117.5 - 44.5
Pythag Record: 4.35 - 1.65
Record As Favorites: 4-2
Record As Underdogs: 0-0

Simulation Results Notes:
Dodgers win expectancy is 49.52%
Dodgers on average score 3.315 runs
Padres on average score 3.104 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 6.419

Starting Pitching Lines:
Josh Beckett - 6.4ip, 6.4so, 2.1bb, 5.4hits, 0.58hrs, 100pitches, 3.395fip
Clayton Richard - 6.4ip, 4.7so, 1.8bb, 6.3hits, 0.58hrs, 98pitches, 3.718fip

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Dodgers win expectancy: 57.89%
Over/Under: 6.5 -112o +102u

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Padres 2-1
2. Padres 3-2
3. Dodgers 2-1
4. Padres 4-3
5. Dodgers 3-2
6. Padres 1-0
7. Dodgers 3-1
8. Padres 3-1
9. Dodgers 4-3
10. Dodgers 4-2
11. Dodgers 1-0
12. Padres 4-2
13. Padres 2-0
14. Padres 5-4
15. Dodgers 2-0
16. Dodgers 4-1
17. Padres 4-1
18. Dodgers 3-0
19. Padres 3-0
20. Dodgers 5-2
.
.
99. Dodgers 11-4

Dodgers Box Score (Click Image To Enlarge)