Best Lineup - Cincinnati Reds

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Cincinnati Reds.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible, therefore I didn't attempt to let Joey Votto and Jay Bruce hit back to back.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins

See the results after the jump

Reds vs Pirates - NL WildCard Game Simulation Results

Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Reds	Pirates	Occurrences		Rank	Reds	Pirates	Occurrences
1	1	2	62779		51	4	7	4008
2	0	1	57497		52	1	8	3851
3	2	3	48423		53	0	8	3791
4	2	1	42044		54	6	7	3646
5	0	2	39518		55	7	4	3619
6	1	0	36247		56	2	8	3512
7	1	3	33464		57	8	1	3424
8	3	2	31816		58	8	2	3336
9	3	4	29768		59	7	5	2944
10	0	3	29268		60	5	7	2871
11	2	0	27457		61	8	3	2842
12	3	1	26510		62	8	0	2773
13	1	4	23985		63	3	8	2708
14	2	4	23120		64	1	9	2551
15	0	4	19978		65	0	9	2516
16	4	3	19802		66	7	6	2456
17	4	2	19448		67	8	4	2195
18	3	0	17841		68	9	1	2144
19	4	1	17115		69	2	9	2139
20	4	5	16209		70	9	2	2025
21	2	5	15872		71	4	8	1994
22	1	5	15039		72	5	8	1704
23	0	5	13777		73	3	9	1684
24	4	0	13168		74	9	3	1664
25	3	5	13021		75	8	5	1652
26	5	2	12658		76	9	0	1639
27	5	1	11838		77	1	10	1540
28	5	3	11713		78	0	10	1487
29	5	4	10721		79	7	8	1484
30	1	6	9898		80	9	4	1341
31	0	6	9768		81	8	6	1331
32	5	0	9224		82	2	10	1263
33	2	6	9017		83	6	8	1261
34	3	6	8391		84	10	1	1254
35	6	2	8124		85	4	9	1194
36	5	6	8003		86	10	2	1140
37	6	1	7920		87	3	10	1064
38	6	3	7118		88	10	3	995
39	4	6	6503		89	10	0	986
40	1	7	6362		90	8	7	958
41	6	0	6345		91	9	5	941
42	6	4	6238		92	5	9	924
43	0	7	6204		93	1	11	912
44	2	7	5530		94	0	11	842
45	7	1	5358		95	10	4	790
46	6	5	5312		96	2	11	781
47	7	2	5054		97	4	10	752
48	3	7	4523		98	6	9	736
49	7	3	4389		99	11	1	722
50	7	0	4286		100	9	6	702

Dodgers vs Reds - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/8

Rank	Dodgers	Reds	Occurences
1	1	2	50429
2	2	3	45914
3	2	1	42771
4	3	2	37248
5	0	1	34035
6	3	1	31524
7	3	4	31169
8	1	0	30495
9	2	0	28629
10	1	3	24673
11	4	2	24457
12	4	3	24072
13	3	0	23726
14	4	1	22922
15	0	2	22112
16	2	4	19466
17	4	0	18166
18	4	5	18160
19	5	2	16488
20	1	4	16403
21	5	1	16289
22	0	3	15586
23	5	3	15128
24	5	4	13681
25	5	0	13152
26	2	5	12335
27	3	5	12010
28	6	2	11443
29	6	1	11440
30	0	4	10126
31	1	5	10002
32	6	3	9961
33	6	0	9900
34	5	6	9501
35	6	4	8325
36	7	1	8075
37	7	2	7573
38	2	6	7452
39	3	6	7328
40	7	0	7240
41	6	5	7063
42	4	6	6632
43	0	5	6542
44	7	3	6520
45	1	6	6511
46	8	1	5668
47	7	4	5270
48	8	2	5210
49	8	0	5104
50	6	7	4785

Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation Results 9/8

Dodgers vs Reds - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/7

Rank	Dodgers	Reds	Occurrences
1	2	3	43981
2	1	2	43058
3	3	4	33078
4	3	2	32574
5	2	1	32468
6	1	3	27599
7	0	1	25420
8	4	3	24588
9	3	1	23114
10	2	4	22801
11	4	2	21417
12	0	2	20983
13	1	4	20684
14	4	5	20561
15	0	3	18918
16	1	0	18659
17	2	0	17097
18	4	1	16940
19	2	5	16169
20	5	3	15489
21	5	4	15307
22	3	5	14968
23	5	2	14666
24	1	5	14288
25	0	4	14222
26	3	0	13422
27	5	6	12122
28	5	1	11994
29	2	6	10736
30	3	6	10322
31	0	5	10301
32	6	3	10278
33	4	0	10124
34	1	6	9975
35	6	2	9808
36	6	4	9412
37	4	6	8768
38	6	5	8695
39	6	1	8258
40	0	6	7656
41	1	7	7545
42	2	7	7469
43	5	0	7329
44	3	7	6889
45	7	2	6697
46	7	3	6681
47	6	7	6484
48	4	7	6157
49	7	4	5984
50	7	1	5834

Pitching Matchup: Zack Greinke vs Mat Latos

Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation Results 9/7

Dodgers vs Reds - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Reds	Occurences
1	2	3	37165
2	3	4	34584
3	3	2	30131
4	1	2	28824
5	4	3	26731
6	4	5	25742
7	2	1	23818
8	4	2	22326
9	3	1	20921
10	2	4	19729
11	5	4	19273
12	1	3	18956
13	5	3	18399
14	4	1	17044
15	5	2	17042
16	5	6	16586
17	3	5	16029
18	1	4	14546
19	2	5	14403
20	5	1	13296
21	6	3	13278
22	6	4	12698
23	6	2	12485
24	0	1	12433
25	6	5	12072
26	2	0	11849
27	3	0	11607
28	3	6	11255
29	4	6	11135
30	0	2	10731
31	1	0	10478
32	1	5	10213
33	6	1	10072
34	0	3	9949
35	6	7	9793
36	2	6	9745
37	4	0	9645
38	7	3	9154
39	7	2	9093
40	7	4	8752
41	5	0	7842
42	7	5	7767
43	7	1	7641
44	4	7	7623
45	0	4	7384
46	7	6	7357
47	3	7	7335
48	1	6	7325
49	2	7	6870
50	5	7	6768

Note: 1 Million simulations ran.

Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation Results 9/6

Reds vs Dodgers - Simulation Results July 28th

Reds vs Dodgers - July 27th Simulation Results

Reds vs Dodgers - Simulation Results July 26th

Note: One million games simulated

Reds vs Dodgers - July 25th Simulation Results

Note: 1,000,000 games simulated

Independence Day Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	CLE	Ervin Santana vs Derek Lowe	CLE	50.00%	52.95%	TBD
CHN	ATL	Paul Maholm vs Randall Delgado	ATL	62.12%	64.82%	TBD
CIN	LAN	Mike Leake vs Aaron Harang	CIN	56.90%	54.40%	TBD
NYA	TB	David Phelps vs David Price	TB	59.51%	55.05%	TBD
TEX	CHA	Scott Feldman vs Dylan Axelrod	TEX	52.15%	55.13%	TBD
SF	WAS	Madison Bumgarner vs Edwin Jackson	WAS	TBD	52.67%	TBD
PHI	NYN	Cliff Lee vs Chris Young	PHI	TBD	60.83%	TBD
HOU	PIT	Dallas Keuchel vs Kevin Correia	PIT	TBD	56.11%	TBD
BOS	OAK	Aaron Cook vs A.J. Griffin	OAK	54.13%	51.36%	TBD
BAL	SEA	Chris Tillman vs Hector Noesi	SEA	50.00%	50.04%	TBD
FLA	MIL	Josh Johnson vs Randy Wolf	FLA	55.56%	56.98%	TBD
MIN	DET	Brian Duensing vs Justin Verlander	DET	71.83%	63.66%	TBD
KC	TOR	Luis Mendoza vs Carlos Villanueva	TOR	59.02%	48.93%	TBD
COL	STL	Jeremy Guthrie vs Adam Wainwright	STL	65.81%	62.34%	TBD
SD	ARI	Jason Marquis vs Ian Kennedy	ARI	65.81%	69.64%	TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 3rd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	CLE	Dan Haren vs Zach McAllister	CLE	TBD	52.40%	TBD
CHN	ATL	Chris Volstad vs Jair Jurrjens	ATL	TBD	64.94%	TBD
CIN	LAN	Johnny Cueto vs Chris Capuano	CIN	TBD	54.37%	TBD
NYA	TB	Ivan Nova vs James Shields	NYA	TBD	54.13%	TBD
TEX	CHA	Roy Oswalt vs Chris Sale	CHA	TBD	51.04%	TBD
FLA	MIL	Anibal Sanchez vs Marco Estrada	FLA	TBD	54.04%	TBD
SF	WAS	Tim Lincecum vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	TBD	52.60%	TBD
HOU	PIT	Lucas Harrell vs A.J. Burnett	PIT	TBD	59.12%	TBD
MIN	DET	Nick Blackburn vs Duane Below	DET	TBD	63.21%	TBD
KC	TOR	Vin Mazzaro vs Brett Cecil	TOR	TBD	53.32%	TBD
PHI	NYN	Vance Worley vs John Niese	PHI	TBD	54.40%	TBD
COL	STL	Jeff Francis vs Joe Kelly	STL	TBD	56.09%	TBD
SD	ARI	Andrew Cashner vs Trevor Bauer	ARI	TBD	61.44%	TBD
BOS	OAK	Jon Lester vs Bartolo Colon	BOS	TBD	52.94%	TBD
BAL	SEA	Wei-Yin Chen vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	TBD	59.28%	TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 2nd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	CLE	Jered Weaver vs Ubaldo Jimenez	LAA	57.54%	57.10%	TBD
CHN	ATL	Jeff Samardzija vs Tommy Hanson	ATL	64.35%	62.83%	TBD
CIN	LAN	Homer Bailey vs Chad Billingsley	CIN	54.02%	48.91%	TBD
NYA	TB	Freddy Garcia vs Matt Moore	TB	54.03%	49.34%	TBD
HOU	PIT	Jordan Lyles vs James McDonald	PIT	62.48%	65.54%	TBD
MIN	DET	Liam Hendriks vs Doug Fister	DET	64.22%	65.70%	TBD
KC	TOR	Everett Teaford vs Ricky Romero	TOR	60.86%	55.79%	TBD
FLA	MIL	Carlos Zambrano vs Zach Greinke	MIL	61.32%	61.86%	TBD
COL	STL	Josh Outman vs Kyle Lohse	STL	65.64%	60.22%	TBD
SD	ARI	Clayton Richard vs Trevor Cahill	ARI	60.86%	61.87%	TBD
BOS	OAK	Daisuke Matsuzaka vs Jarrod Parker	BOS	50.74%	49.25%	TBD
BAL	SEA	Jason Hammel vs Hisashi Iwakuma	BAL	54.85%	53.03%	TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Ides Of June Simulation

Not Quite Circling The Drain ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Reds	Dodgers	T.Wood vs C.Billingsley	Reds	TBD	51.91%	CIN 7-2
Brewers	Cubs	C.Narveson vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	TBD	56.60%	MIL 9-5
White Sox	Twins	G.Floyd vs C.Pavano	White Sox	TBD	54.76%	MIN 4-1
Cardinals	Nationals	K.McClellan vs L.Hernandez	Nationals	TBD	53.42%	WAS 10-0
Rangers	Yankees	D.Holland vs I.Nova	Yankees	TBD	56.37%	NYA 12-4
Giants	DBacks	M.Bumgarner vs J.Saunders	Giants	TBD	58.76%	SF 5-2
Indians	Tigers	F.Carmona vs B.Penny	Tigers	TBD	57.13%	CLE 6-4
Marlins	Phillies	E.Villanueva vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	TBD	64.49%	PHI 8-1
Red Sox	Rays	J.Beckett vs J.Hellickson	Red Sox	TBD	55.22%	BOS 3-0
Angels	Mariners	E.Santana vs E.Bedard	Mariners	TBD	56.29%	SEA 3-1
Mets	Braves	D.Gee vs T.Hudson	Braves	TBD	51.51%	NYN 4-0
Orioles	Blue Jays	J.Arrieta vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	TBD	52.92%	TOR 4-1
Padres	Rockies	M.Latos vs J.Chacin	Rockies	TBD	61.06%	COL 6-3
Pirates	Astros	C.Morton vs J.Happ	Astros	TBD	51.29%	PIT 7-3
Royals	Athletics	L.Hochevar vs J.Outman	Athletics	TBD	61.27%	OAK 2-1
Marlins	Phillies	A.Sanchez vs R.Halladay	Phillies	TBD	68.21%	PHI 5-4

Run Total Picks of The Day!
PHI vs FLA, Under 9.5 -112 0.3 units WIN
LAA vs SEA, Over 6.5 -122 2.2 units LOSS
KC vs OAK, Under 8.0 +102 0.9 units WIN
BOS vs TB, Under 7.5 +100 0.6 units WIN
BAL vs TOR, Over 8.0 -110 0.3 units LOSS
CLE vs DET, Over 9.0 +100 1.8 units WIN
TEX vs NYA, Under 9.5 +106 1.0 units LOSS
SF vs ARI, Over 8.0 -125 3.0 units LOSS
PIT vs HOU, Over 7.5 -108 0.2 units WIN
NYN vs ATL, Over 7.0 -105 1.5 units LOSS
FLA vs PHI, Under 7.0 +107 1.2 units LOSS
CIN vs LAN, Under 7.5 -120 3.5 units LOSS
SD vs COL, Over 8.5 +102 0.1 units WIN
MIL vs CHN, Over 8.5 +105 1.3 units WIN
CHA vs MIN, Under 8.0 -110 2.6 units WIN

Daily Profit: -4.9 units

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June 14th Simulations

Johnny Be Bad ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Reds	Dodgers	J.Cueto vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	54.85%	51.91%	CIN 3-2
Marlins	Phillies	C.Volstad vs C.Hamels	Phillies	66.44%	70.26%	PHI 9-1
Pirates	Astros	J.Karstens vs B.Norris	Astros	53.16%	56.00%	PIT 1-0
Royals	Athletics	D.Duffy vs J.Outman	Athletics	61.46%	60.71%	KC 7-4
Red Sox	Rays	T.Wakefield vs J.Shields	Rays	54.02%	51.74%	TB 4-0
Brewers	Cubs	Y.Gallardo vs R.Wells	Brewers	56.99%	51.16%	CHN 5-4
Mets	Braves	J.Niese vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	58.42%	51.23%	NYN 4-3
Giants	DBacks	M.Cain vs J.Collmenter	DBacks	52.49%	50.53%	SF 6-5
Rangers	Yankees	A.Ogando vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	58.07%	62.92%	NYA 12-4
White Sox	Twins	G.Floyd vs C.Pavano	White Sox	55.06%	52.27%	Ppd.
Cardinals	Nationals	J.Garcia vs Y.Maya	Cardinals	57.72%	65.54%	WAS 8-6
Angels	Mariners	J.Weaver vs D.Fister	Mariners	56.04%	50.13%	LAA 4-0
Orioles	Blue Jays	C.Jakubauskas vs C.Villanueva	Blue Jays	58.93%	49.69%	TOR 6-5
Indians	Tigers	J.Masterson vs J.Verlander	Tigers	63.03%	58.11%	DET 2-0
Padres	Rockies	W.LeBlanc vs J.Nicasio	Rockies	59.60%	59.52%	COL 6-5

Run Total Picks of The Day!
FLA vs PHI, Under 8.0 -108 1.1 units LOSS
PIT vs HOU, Over 7.5 +105 0.4 units LOSS
SF vs ARI, Over 7.5 +100 0.4 units WIN
CIN vs LAN, Under 6.5 -105 1.1 units WIN
TEX vs NYA, Under 8.5 -120 1.6 units LOSS
BOS vs TB, Under 9.0 -112 0.8 units WIN
CHA vs MIN, Under 7.5 +100 0.9 units Ppd.
KC vs OAK, Over 7.0 -127 0.4 units WIN
Daily Profit: -0.6 units

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June 13th Simulations

Dodgers Offense Appears Out Of Thin Air ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Reds	Dodgers	B.Arroyo vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	53.38%	50.14%	CIN 6-4
Rays	Tigers	A.Cobb vs P.Coke	Tigers	53.16%	54.35%	DET 2-1
Indians	Yankees	C.Carrasco vs A.Burnett	Yankees	62.48%	59.48%	CLE 1-0
Brewers	Cubs	R.Wolf vs R.Dempster	Brewers	50.62%	38.78%	CHN 1-0
Padres	Rockies	A.Bass vs A.Cook	Rockies	TBD	64.62%	SD 3-1
Braves	Astros	D.Lowe vs W.Rodriguez	Braves	54.85%	45.35%	HOU 8-3
Angels	Mariners	D.Haren vs J.Vargas	Angels	54.85%	52.48%	LAA 6-3
DBacks	Marlins	Z.Duke vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	56.62%	61.95%	ARI 12-9
Mets	Pirates	M.Pelfrey vs P.Maholm	Pirates	52.72%	56.14%	PIT 3-1

Run Total Picks of The Day!
ATL vs HOU, Under 7.5 -113 0.6 units LOSS
CIN vs LAN, Under 7.5 -120 0.6 units LOSS
CLE vs NYA, Under 9.5 +100 0.5 units WIN
LAA vs SEA, Over 6.5 -105 0.3 units WIN
Daily Profit: -0.4 units

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Had a record setting day yesterday for my run total bets. Below is a snapshot of my excel spreadsheet bets. Divide by 10 to get actual unit totals.

June 3rd Simulations

The Anti-Dodgers ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Reds	H.Kuroda vs B.Arroyo	Reds	55.06%	57.63%	CIN 2-1
Brewers	Marlins	R.Wolf vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	53.38%	63.66%	MIL 6-5
Phillies	Pirates	C.Hamels vs J.Karstens	Phillies	59.60%	62.26%	PIT 2-1
Tigers	White Sox	A.Oliver vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	57.36%	56.77%	CHA 6-4
Cubs	Cardinals	R.Dempster vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	62.62%	65.47%	STL 6-1
Nationals	DBacks	Y.Maya vs J.Collmenter	DBacks	62.89%	60.44%	ARI 4-0
Twins	Royals	C.Pavano vs D.Duffy	Royals	57.36%	53.33%	MIN 5-2
Astros	Padres	J.Happ vs D.Moseley	Padres	54.44%	52.44%	SD 3-1
Athletics	Red Sox	J.Outman vs C.Buchholz	Red Sox	64.48%	58.93%	BOS 8-6
Yankees	Angels	I.Nova vs J.Weaver	Angels	60.71%	55.54%	LAA 3-2
Braves	Mets	D.Lowe vs J.Niese	Mets	50.62%	57.70%	ATL 6-3
Rangers	Indians	A.Ogando vs J.Masterson	Rangers	53.38%	50.54%	TEX 11-2
Blue Jays	Orioles	C.Villanueva vs Z.Britton	Orioles	54.44%	62.03%	TOR 8-4
Rays	Mariners	A.Sonnanstine vs J.Vargas	Mariners	52.94%	55.27%	SEA 7-0
Rockies	Giants	J.Nicasio vs M.Cain	Giants	56.43%	57.24%	SF 3-1

Run Total Picks of The Day!
COL vs SF, Over 7.0 +110, 2.0 units LOSS
TEX vs CLE, Under 8.0 +105, 3.2 units LOSS
MIN vs KC, Under 9.5 -105, 2.1 units WIN
NYA vs LAA, Under 7.5 -105, 1.7 units WIN
MIL vs FLA, Over 7.5 -110, 2.7 units WIN
CHN vs STL, Under 7.5 +105, 1.2 units WIN
WAS vs ARI, Over 9.0 -120, 1.7 units LOSS
DET vs CHA, Under 9.0 +105, 2.1 units LOSS
Daily Profit: -1.7 units

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