Phillies vs Dodgers - Monday's Simulation Results

                                           *** Simulation Results ***

Away	Home	Away SP	Home SP	Favorite	Away RS/G	Home RS/G	Win %	Total Runs
Phillies	Dodgers	Cliff Lee	Paul Maholm	Dodgers	3.40	3.45	52.96	6.85

                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Phillies	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Phillies	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	4880		51	4	7	571
2	1	2	4516		52	7	5	514
3	3	4	3700		53	8	2	489
4	3	2	3414		54	5	7	480
5	2	1	3284		55	2	8	471
6	0	1	2770		56	8	1	452
7	4	3	2691		57	7	0	436
8	1	3	2594		58	0	7	423
9	3	1	2532		59	8	4	422
10	2	4	2385		60	7	6	417
11	4	5	2361		61	8	3	412
12	4	2	2358		62	1	8	388
13	0	2	2165		63	3	8	377
14	4	1	2016		64	4	8	326
15	1	4	1972		65	8	5	325
16	1	0	1803		66	7	8	320
17	2	0	1782		67	9	2	299
18	5	3	1773		68	2	9	292
19	0	3	1718		69	5	8	289
20	2	5	1718		70	0	8	288
21	5	2	1691		71	9	3	288
22	3	5	1631		72	1	9	283
23	5	4	1629		73	9	1	277
24	3	0	1569		74	8	0	256
25	1	5	1387		75	3	9	248
26	5	1	1346		76	8	6	241
27	0	4	1343		77	9	4	231
28	5	6	1321		78	6	8	219
29	4	0	1223		79	4	9	216
30	6	2	1174		80	10	2	195
31	6	3	1124		81	8	7	188
32	3	6	1066		82	0	9	183
33	2	6	1044		83	9	0	177
34	6	4	971		84	10	1	168
35	6	1	966		85	1	10	166
36	4	6	959		86	9	5	166
37	5	0	953		87	5	9	160
38	0	5	928		88	2	10	159
39	6	5	902		89	3	10	158
40	1	6	893		90	9	6	149
41	7	2	752		91	4	10	147
42	7	3	708		92	10	4	138
43	6	7	671		93	6	9	132
44	7	4	671		94	8	9	130
45	7	1	665		95	10	3	129
46	6	0	661		96	9	7	114
47	2	7	656		97	11	2	114
48	3	7	645		98	0	10	112
49	0	6	636		99	11	1	108
50	1	7	583		100	10	0	101

Notes: Based off of 100K simulations

Dodgers vs Phillies - Simulation Results 8/16

Note: 1 Million games simulated
Vegas Odds: Dodgers win expectancy 52.0%

Phillies vs Dodgers Simulation Results - June 29th

July 18th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
ARI	CIN	Ian Kennedy vs Mat Latos	CIN	57.72%	55.33%	ARI, 0.7u
CHA	BOS	Pedro Hernandez vs Felix Doubront	BOS	62.05%	61.36%	- - -
CLE	TB	Justin Masterson vs Jeremy Hellickson	CLE	50.62%	49.63%	- - -
HOU	SD	Wandy Rodriguez vs Clayton Richard	SD	56.99%	54.21%	- - -
PHI	LAN	Cliff Lee vs Clayton Kershaw	LAN	51.22%	51.31%	- - -
SEA	KC	Kevin Millwood vs Bruce Chen	KC	55.85%	55.40%	- - -
SF	ATL	Ryan Vogelsong vs Mike Minor	ATL	52.72%	54.74%	ATL, 0.6u
TOR	NYA	Ricky Romero vs Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	63.17%	63.02%	- - -
STL	MIL	Adam Wainwright vs Tyler Thornburg	STL	57.72%	54.91%	MIL, 0.8u
PIT	COL	James McDonald vs Jeremy Guthrie	PIT	54.44%	51.72%	COL, 0.8u
TEX	OAK	Colby Lewis vs Travis Blackley	TEX	55.65%	55.70%	- - -
LAA	DET	C.J. Wilson vs Doug Fister	LAA	50.86%	44.27%	DET, 2.4u
NYN	WAS	Chris Young vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	59.60%	59.56%	- - -
FLA	CHN	Josh Johnson vs Jeff Samardzija	FLA	55.26%	50.52%	CHN, 1.5u
BAL	MIN	Tommy Hunter vs Francisco Liriano	MIN	58.07%	59.09%	MIN, 0.3u

Today's Run Total Bets:
LAA vs DET, Under 9 +104, 3.0 units
SEA vs KC, Under 9 +110, 1.5 units

Previous Day: +2.7 units on 9.1 units risked
Current ML ROI: 2.85%

Notes: The simulator thinks that the Vegas odds are off on the Angels vs Tigers game. The simulator thinks Fister is a stronger pitcher and Wilson a weaker pitcher than Vegas does and also believes that the game will be much lower scoring than Vegas does. The main disagreement appears to be from Fister.

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June 5th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Bet Units
BAL	BOS	Jason Hammel vs Jon Lester	BOS	58.93%	56.37%	---
MIN	KC	Francisco Liriano vs Bruce Chen	KC	56.43%	60.24%	---
PIT	CIN	A.J. Burnett vs Homer Bailey	CIN	57.89%	58.31%	---
SEA	LAA	Blake Beavan vs Garrett Richards	LAA	58.59%	58.34%	---
SF	SD	Tim Lincecum vs Anthony Bass	SF	50.86%	48.07%	---
TOR	CHA	Ricky Romero vs Phil Humber	TOR	50.25%	47.32%	---
CLE	DET	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Drew Smyly	DET	58.76%	63.94%	---
LAN	PHI	Chad Billingsley vs Cliff Lee	PHI	62.89%	64.20%	---
NYN	WAS	Chris Young vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	58.93%	65.42%	---
TB	NYA	James Shields vs Andy Pettitte	NYA	54.44%	60.30%	---
ATL	FLA	Tim Hudson vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	54.85%	57.47%	---
STL	HOU	Jaime Garcia vs Lucas Harrell	STL	57.17%	62.62%	---
CHN	MIL	Ryan Dempster vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	59.27%	57.61%	---
COL	ARI	Jeremy Guthrie vs Ian Kennedy	ARI	58.93%	55.23%	---
TEX	OAK	Derek Holland vs Travis Blackley	TEX	60.55%	60.40%	---

Monday's Results: -4.3 units
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yesterday's Synopsis
Mauled!  One run games on big bets killing me of late.  Taking the day off to stretch out what may possibly be the last week of beating Vegas.

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May 9th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BOS	KC	Jon Lester vs Bruce Chen	BOS	TBD	53.10%	TBD
CHA	CLE	Jake Peavy vs Jeanmar Gomez	CHA	TBD	50.08%	TBD
COL	SD	Chris Friedrich vs Anthony Bass	COL	TBD	51.93%	TBD
SF	LAN	Tim Lincecum vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	TBD	53.50%	TBD
CIN	MIL	Johnny Cueto vs Zach Greinke	MIL	TBD	56.80%	TBD
FLA	HOU	Josh Johnson vs Lucas Harrell	FLA	TBD	65.75%	TBD
ATL	CHN	Tim Hudson vs Paul Maholm	ATL	TBD	55.62%	TBD
TOR	OAK	Brandon Morrow vs Tyson Ross	TOR	TBD	50.56%	TBD
STL	ARI	Kyle Lohse vs Wade Miley	STL	TBD	51.32%	TBD
NYN	PHI	Dillon Gee vs Cliff Lee	PHI	TBD	69.90%	TBD
TB	NYA	Jeff Niemann vs David Phelps	NYA	TBD	54.27%	TBD
TEX	BAL	Colby Lewis vs Wei-Yin Chen	TEX	TBD	53.97%	TBD
WAS	PIT	Ross Detwiler vs Erik Bedard	PIT	TBD	57.65%	TBD
LAA	MIN	Ervin Santana vs Carl Pavano	LAA	TBD	51.92%	TBD
DET	SEA	Drew Smyly vs Jason Vargas	DET	TBD	56.98%	TBD

Current ROI: 8.33%

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August 9th Simulations

One Of These Things Doesn't Belong With The Other (Cliff Lee, Ted Lilly) ...

Phillies vs Dodgers
Cliff Lee vs Ted Lilly
Favorite: Phillies	ML: -170 +163, 62.48%	Simulator: 64.43%
Vegas Over/Under: 6.5	Over +110	Under -120
Simulator Over/Under: 7.30	Over: 54.65%	Under: 45.35%	Result: UNDER
Final Score: #4 PHI 2-1

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
SD	NYN	Wade LeBlanc vs Chris Capuano	NYN	TBD	59.877	TBD
CHA	BAL	Gavin Floyd vs Jo-Jo Reyes	BAL	TBD	54.234	TBD
WAS	CHN	Ross Detwiler vs Rodrigo Lopez	CHN	TBD	54.482	TBD
KC	TB	Jeff Francis vs James Shields	TB	TBD	59.571	TBD
PIT	SF	James McDonald vs Madison Bumgarner	SF	TBD	71.006	TBD
LAA	NYA	Dan Haren vs A.J. Burnett	NYA	TBD	55.868	TBD
COL	CIN	Esmil Rogers vs Dontrelle Willis	CIN	TBD	50.929	TBD
SEA	TEX	Michael Pineda vs Alexi Ogando	TEX	TBD	64.797	TBD
DET	CLE	Doug Fister vs Justin Masterson	CLE	TBD	53.247	TBD
HOU	ARI	Jordan Lyles vs Jason Marquis	ARI	TBD	66.976	TBD
ATL	FLA	Brandon Beachy vs Clay Hensley	ATL	TBD	51.435	TBD
BOS	MIN	Erik Bedard vs Francisco Liriano	BOS	TBD	53.634	TBD
MIL	STL	Shaun Marcum vs Edwin Jackson	STL	TBD	63.942	TBD
OAK	TOR	Rich Harden vs Brett Cecil	TOR	TBD	57.668	TBD

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June 6th Simulations

Moving Up In Class ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Phillies	T.Lilly vs C.Lee	Phillies	64.22%	71.79%	PHI 3-1
Mariners	White Sox	M.Pineda vs J.Danks	White Sox	50.62%	46.54%	CHA 3-1
Twins	Indians	S.Baker vs J.Tomlin	Indians	58.59%	57.14%	MIN 6-4
Rays	Angels	D.Price vs T.Chatwood	Rays	56.80%	59.01%	TB 5-1
Cubs	Reds	M.Garza vs C.Reineke	Reds	56.24%	53.42%	CIN 8-2
Tigers	Rangers	M.Scherzer vs C.Lewis	Rangers	58.25%	58.59%	DET 13-7
Brewers	Marlins	Z.Greinke vs J.Vazquez	Brewers	55.65%	53.15%	MIL 7-2
Nationals	Giants	J.Lannan vs T.Lincecum	Giants	65.64%	68.00%	SF 5-4
Rockies	Padres	C.Mortensen vs C.Richard	Padres	50.62%	47.30%	COL 3-0
Blue Jays	Royals	B.Morrow vs F.Paulino	Blue Jays	54.65%	57.51%	KC 3-2
Athletics	Orioles	G.Gonzalez vs B.Matusz	Orioles	51.34%	47.47%	BAL 4-2

Run Total Picks of The Day!
CHN vs CIN, Under 9.0 +103, 2.4 units LOSS
MIN vs CLE, Under 9.0 -118, 2.6 units LOSS
TOR vs KC, Under 9.0 -115, 1.6 units WIN
TB vs LAA, Under 7.5 -115, 1.3 units WIN
MIL vs FLA, Over 8.5 +108, 1.8 units WIN
COL vs SD, Over 7.0 +110, 1.0 units LOSS
WAS vs SF, Over 6.0 -108, 1.3 units WIN
Daily Profit: -0.3 units

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