Best Lineup - New York Mets

Next up on my look at most efficient lineups is the New York Mets.  I used my baseball simulator to run millions of games through various different possible lineup scenarios to see which lineup it spit out as the most likely to win a game vs a RH and LH pitcher.  I tried my best to not stack left handed hitters and I always batted the pitcher 9th because no MLB manager will bat his pitcher 8th which is where most should hit.

Please keep in mind that 2014 Steamer Projections were used as input, so if you don't like some of the results take it up with them.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels
NL: None

See the results after the break.

Mets vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/14

Mets vs Dodgers - Most Likely Final Scores

Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Mets	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Mets	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	74616		26	5	0	11636
2	0	1	64231		27	5	3	11074
3	2	3	57117		28	0	5	11031
4	2	1	46377		29	3	5	10966
5	1	0	41118		30	5	4	9651
6	0	2	36331		31	6	1	8315
7	3	2	34618		32	1	6	8242
8	3	4	33740		33	6	2	7873
9	2	0	33030		34	2	6	7671
10	3	1	31089		35	6	0	7591
11	1	3	30919		36	5	6	7535
12	0	3	25181		37	0	6	7229
13	3	0	24867		38	3	6	6676
14	1	4	21508		39	6	3	6558
15	2	4	21065		40	7	1	5341
16	4	2	20424		41	6	4	5199
17	4	1	19970		42	4	6	5064
18	4	3	19429		43	1	7	5027
19	4	5	17299		44	7	0	4966
20	4	0	16745		45	7	2	4724
21	0	4	16575		46	2	7	4590
22	2	5	13614		47	6	5	4367
23	1	5	13138		48	0	7	4316
24	5	1	13033		49	7	3	3946
25	5	2	12846		50	3	7	3763

Pitching Matchup: Matt Harvey vs Hyun-Jin Ryu
Games Simulated: 1 Million

Mets vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/13

Mets vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/12

Dodgers vs Mets - April 25th Simulation Results

Dodgers vs Mets - April 24th Simulation Results

July 22nd Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
BAL	CLE	Zach Britton vs Josh Tomlin	CLE	56.43%	51.82%	- - -
COL	SD	Chris Friedrich vs Ross Ohlendorf	COL	50.25%	49.19%	- - -
MIL	CIN	Michael Fiers vs Johnny Cueto	CIN	57.17%	56.08%	- - -
MIN	KC	Samuel Deduno vs Jeremy Guthrie	KC	56.04%	56.26%	- - -
SEA	TB	Blake Beavan vs Matt Moore	TB	63.96%	59.24%	- - -
SF	PHI	Barry Zito vs Joe Blanton	PHI	58.07%	60.12%	- - -
TEX	LAA	Matt Harrison vs Dan Haren	TEX	50.25%	49.97%	- - -
TOR	BOS	Henderson Alvarez vs Jon Lester	BOS	62.62%	65.84%	- - -
CHA	DET	Phil Humber vs Jacob Turner	DET	52.27%	57.64%	- - -
LAN	NYN	Nathan Eovaldi vs John Niese	NYN	59.43%	64.66%	- - -
ATL	WAS	Jair Jurrjens vs Ross Detwiler	WAS	55.46%	57.77%	- - -
FLA	PIT	Anibal Sanchez vs Jeff Karstens	PIT	53.60%	52.03%	- - -
CHN	STL	Travis Wood vs Lance Lynn	STL	65.64%	73.59%	- - -
NYA	OAK	C.C. Sabathia vs Bartolo Colon	NYA	62.89%	58.60%	- - -
HOU	ARI	Jordan Lyles vs Josh Collmenter	ARI	67.21%	66.49%	- - -

Today's Pitching Matchups

Previous Day: -2.8 units on ML
Current ML ROI: 2.45%
No bets Today!

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 21st Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
BAL	CLE	Chris Tillman vs Zach McAllister	CLE	59.27%	60.0%	- - -
COL	SD	Jeff Francis vs Kip Wells	COL	51.81%	46.5%	SD, 0.7
MIL	CIN	Yovanni Gallardo vs Bronson Arroyo	CIN	50.86%	53.0%	- - -
MIN	KC	Scott Diamond vs Luis Mendoza	KC	54.65%	50.0%	MIN, 0.7
SEA	TB	Jason Vargas vs Alex Cobb	TB	58.93%	61.5%	TB, 0.7
TEX	LAA	Yu Darvish vs Ervin Santana	TEX	54.23%	49.5%	LAA, 0.7
TOR	BOS	Carlos Villanueva vs Aaron Cook	BOS	55.46%	59.0%	BOS, 0.7
LAN	NYN	Chris Capuano vs Miguel Batista	LAN	53.81%	51.5%	- - -
CHN	STL	Matt Garza vs Jake Westbrook	STL	57.36%	56.5%	- - -
SF	PHI	Matt Cain vs Cole Hamels	PHI	56.04%	54.0%	- - -
ATL	WAS	Ben Sheets vs Edwin Jackson	WAS	52.94%	56.0%	WAS, 0.7
ATL	WAS	Randall Delgado vs John Lannan	WAS	52.49%	53.5%	- - -
CHA	DET	Chris Sale vs Rick Porcello	CHA	53.16%	50.5%	DET, 0.7
FLA	PIT	Carlos Zambrano vs A.J. Burnett	PIT	56.04%	60.0%	PIT, 0.7
HOU	ARI	Dallas Keuchel vs Wade Miley	ARI	63.03%	63.0%	- - -
NYA	OAK	Phil Hughes vs Jarrod Parker	NYA	55.06%	53.05%	- - -

Previous Day: -5.3 units (risked 9.3u) ML and +0.7 units (risked 2.4u) on Run Totals

Current ML ROI: 2.95%
ML ROI Last 50 Bets:  -0.01%
ML ROI Last 25 Bets:  +9.07%

Notes:  Tough day yesterday mostly due to the Nationals amazing failure last night of holding a 9-0 lead in a game that Stephen Strasburg started. The failure was not his fault but it was a truly amazing comeback by the Braves. Today, I am trying something a little bit new. I am going to just make flat ML bets on games that meet a certain threshold. I may return to the Kelly Criterion for betting at a later time, but it is time to try something different that a few readers have suggested trying.  I am also rounding of the sim output to the nearest half.
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 20th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	CLE	Miguel Gonzalez vs Derek Lowe	CLE	56.04%	55.96%	- - -
COL	SD	Drew Pomeranz vs Jason Marquis	SD	50.25%	54.62%	SD, 1.6u
MIL	CIN	Marco Estrada vs Homer Bailey	CIN	56.04%	48.98%	MIL, 2.4u
MIN	KC	Nick Blackburn vs Luke Hochevar	KC	57.89%	58.54%	- - -
SEA	TB	Hisashi Iwakuma vs James Shields	TB	63.17%	62.81%	- - -
TEX	LAA	Derek Holland vs Jered Weaver	LAA	58.76%	57.32%	TEX, 0.3u
TOR	BOS	Aaron Laffey vs Josh Beckett	BOS	62.76%	62.38%	- - -
ATL	WAS	Tommy Hanson vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	58.93%	63.80%	WAS, 2.2u
CHA	DET	Jake Peavy vs Justin Verlander	DET	62.76%	59.82%	CHA, 0.8u
FLA	PIT	Ricky Nolasco vs Kevin Correia	PIT	50.74%	50.80%	- - -
SF	PHI	Tim Lincecum vs Vance Worley	PHI	55.06%	56.41%	PHI, 0.4u
LAN	NYN	Aaron Harang vs Johan Santana	NYN	58.25%	58.08%	- - -
CHN	STL	Ryan Dempster vs Kyle Lohse	STL	59.27%	57.63%	CHN, 0.4u
HOU	ARI	Bud Norris vs Trevor Cahill	ARI	64.73%	61.67%	HOU, 0.8u
NYA	OAK	Ivan Nova vs Tom Milone	NYA	54.23%	52.68%	OAK, 0.4u

Today's Run Total Bets:
LAN vs NYN, Over 7.5 -110, 0.8 units
CHN vs STL, Over 8.0 -105, 0.8 units
HOU vs ARI, Over 9.0 +105, 0.8 units

Previous Day: +1.9 units (risked 4.4u) ML and -4.4 units (risked 4.4u) on Run Totals

Current ML ROI: 3.94%
ML ROI Last 50 Bets: 9.7%
ML ROI Last 25 Bets: 26.0%

Notes:  A good day on the ML bets going 5-2, but a bad day on the Run Totals going 0-3.  Going to tone down the Run Total bets until I start doing a little better there.  Today's biggest bet will be on the Brewers, who have Marco Estrada pitching.  He may only have 47 innings of starting pitching so far this year but his peripherals have been amazing.  They are sure to regress, but he is much better than his ERA and W/L 0-3 record suggest.  Other decent size bets are with the Nationals and Strasburg along with the Padres facing a shaky Colorado Rockies team.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 1st Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CHA	NYA	Gavin Floyd vs Phil Hughes	NYA	59.02%	62.89%	TBD
DET	TB	Drew Smyly vs Alex Cobb	TB	53.05%	47.23%	TBD
NYN	LAN	Dillon Gee vs Clayton Kershaw	LAN	57.81%	54.62%	TBD
OAK	TEX	Travis Blackley vs Yu Darvish	TEX	66.67%	68.62%	TBD
WAS	ATL	Gio Gonzalez vs Tim Hudson	ATL	51.46%	51.80%	TBD
PHI	FLA	Joe Blanton vs Ricky Nolasco	FLA	51.46%	52.15%	TBD
CLE	BAL	Justin Masterson vs Brian Matusz	CLE	51.46%	48.00%	TBD
ARI	MIL	Josh Collmenter vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	57.45%	55.47%	TBD
KC	MIN	Bruce Chen vs Francisco Liriano	MIN	55.95%	52.00%	TBD
PIT	STL	Erik Bedard vs Jake Westbrook	STL	62.12%	61.11%	TBD
HOU	CHN	Wandy Rodriguez vs Travis Wood	CHN	51.92%	51.69%	TBD
LAA	TOR	C.J. Wilson vs Aaron Laffey	LAA	59.02%	60.67%	TBD
SD	COL	Kip Wells vs Drew Pomeranz	COL	60.16%	63.16%	TBD
CIN	SF	Bronson Arroyo vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	57.45%	55.20%	TBD
BOS	SEA	Felix Doubront vs Jason Vargas	BOS	55.16%	55.73%	TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 7th Simulations

Kershaw Hoping To Avoid Area 52 Losses ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Mets	Dodgers	D.Gee vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	58.76%	64.96%	LAN 6-0
Reds	Brewers	H.Bailey vs C.Narveson	Brewers	52.04%	49.88%	TBD
Athletics	Rangers	R.Harden vs D.Holland	Rangers	55.65%	63.47%	TBD
Tigers	Royals	M.Scherzer vs D.Duffy	Tigers	55.06%	60.95%	TBD
DBacks	Cardinals	J.Saunders vs K.McClellan	Cardinals	57.36%	65.69%	TBD
Rockies	Braves	J.Nicasio vs T.Hudson	Braves	TBD	58.79%	ATL 6-3
BAL	BOS	Jake Arrieta vs Andrew Miller	BOS	TBD	58.809	TBD
SD	SF	Cory Luebke vs Barry Zito	SF	TBD	53.069	TBD
HOU	FLA	J.A. Happ vs Brad Hand	FLA	TBD	54.909	TBD
MIN	CHA	Carl Pavano vs Phil Humber	CHA	TBD	56.915	TBD
TOR	CLE	Carlos Villanueva vs Zach McAllister	TOR	TBD	52.34	TBD
SEA	LAA	Doug Fister vs Jered Weaver	LAA	TBD	58.55	TBD
CHN	WAS	Matt Garza vs Livan Hernandez	WAS	TBD	55.314	TBD
TB	NYA	Jeff Niemann vs Bartolo Colon	NYA	TBD	70.682	TBD

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Derek Jeter 3,000th Hit Prop Bets

July 6th Simulations

50 Ways To Lose Your Game ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Mets	Dodgers	J.Niese vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	54.23%	50.97%	TBD
Rockies	Braves	A.Cook vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	64.85%	58.69%	TBD
Reds	Cardinals	B.Arroyo vs J.Westbrook	Cardinals	54.85%	59.93%	TBD
Rays	Twins	W.Davis vs F.Liriano	Twins	54.23%	58.82%	TB 12-5
DBacks	Brewers	J.Collmenter vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	60.08%	57.43%	MIL 3-1
Orioles	Rangers	J.Guthrie vs A.Ogando	Rangers	63.83%	64.67%	TBD
Blue Jays	Red Sox	R.Romero vs T.Wakefield	Red Sox	52.49%	53.17%	TBD
Phillies	Marlins	K.Kendrick vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	55.06%	58.89%	TBD
Padres	Giants	D.Moseley vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	60.71%	66.01%	TBD
Mariners	Athletics	J.Vargas vs G.Moscoso	Athletics	54.02%	50.56%	OAK 2-0
Cubs	Nationals	R.Wells vs T.Gorzelanny	Nationals	56.24%	54.23%	TBD
Astros	Pirates	B.Norris vs C.Morton	Pirates	53.16%	51.37%	TBD
Royals	White Sox	B.Chen vs E.Jackson	White Sox	58.59%	64.62%	KC 4-1
Yankees	Indians	P.Hughes vs J.Masterson	Indians	50.62%	53.98%	TBD
Tigers	Angels	B.Penny vs T.Chatwood	Angels	52.72%	50.52%	DET 5-4

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July 5th Simulations

Blogger Night! ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Mets	Dodgers	M.Pelfrey vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	54.44%	55.30%	NYN 6-0
Astros	Pirates	W.Rodriguez vs J.Karstens	Pirates	53.81%	48.66%	PIT 5-1
Orioles	Rangers	M.Atkins vs M.Harrison	Rangers	61.90%	61.92%	TEX 4-2
Rays	Twins	J.Shields vs S.Baker	Rays	51.81%	47.46%	MIN 3-2
Cubs	Nationals	R.Ortiz vs R.Detwiler	Nationals	56.43%	56.42%	WAS 3-2
Phillies	Marlins	C.Hamels vs C.Volstad	Phillies	60.71%	66.46%	PHI 14-2
Tigers	Angels	J.Verlander vs D.Haren	Tigers	52.94%	52.35%	LAA 1-0
KC	CHA	Felipe Paulino vs Jake Peavy	CHA	TBD	56.98%	KC 5-3
CIN	STL	Edinson Volquez vs Jaime Garcia	STL	TBD	60.47%	STL 8-1
SEA	OAK	Felx Hernandez vs Trevor Cahill	OAK	TBD	51.59%	SEA 4-2
ARI	MIL	Zach Duke vs Randy Wolf	MIL	TBD	53.78%	ARI 7-3
NYA	CLE	C.C. Sabathia vs Carlos Carrasco	NYA	TBD	61.48%	NYA 9-2
COL	ATL	Jhoulys Chacin vs Derek Lowe	ATL	TBD	51.06%	ATL 5-3
Padres	Giants	T.Stauffer vs M.Cain	Giants	60.24%	55.63%	SD 5-3
Blue Jays	Red Sox	B.Cecil vs J.Lester	Red Sox	67.21%	66.92%	BOS 3-2

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May 8th Simulations

Can Kershaw Stop The Bleeding ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Mets	C.Kershaw vs R.Dickey	Mets	53.70%	55.93%	LAN 4-2
Braves	Phillies	J.Jurrjens vs C.Hamels	Phillies	57.81%	64.24%	ATL 5-2
Tigers	Blue Jays	B.Penny vs J.Reyes	Blue Jays	TBD	53.53%	DET 5-2
Yankees	Rangers	C.Sabathia vs A.Ogando	Yankees	60.94%	60.79%	NYA 12-5
Reds	Cubs	J.Cueto vs R.Dempster	Cubs	50.00%	51.00%	CIN 2-0
Twins	Red Sox	C.Pavano vs D.Matsuzaka	Red Sox	TBD	64.54%	BOA 9-5
Rockies	Giants	J.de la Rosa vs R.Vogelsong	Rockies	55.75%	56.18%	SF 3-0
Nationals	Marlins	L.Hernandez vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	61.39%	58.79%	FLA 8-0
Indians	Angels	F.Carmona vs D.Haren	Angels	60.00%	62.24%	LAA 6-5
Athletics	Royals	T.Ross vs J.Francis	Athletics	52.38%	54.27%	OAK 5-2
Brewers	Cardinals	C.Narveson vs K.McClellan	Cardinals	56.14%	61.28%	Stl 3-1
Astros	Pirates	J.Happ vs J.McDonald	Pirates	56.33%	55.02%	PIT 5-4
DBacks	Padres	J.Saunders vs A.Harang	Padres	53.70%	54.23%	SD 4-3
Rays	Orioles	W.Davis vs B.Bergesen	Orioles	TBD	53.94%	TB 5-3
White Sox	Mariners	M.Buehrle vs E.Bedard	Mariners	53.27%	51.33%	CHA 5-2

Seasonal Money Line ROI: -3.52%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +9.57%

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May 7th Simulations

Dodgers 3 Under For The Day ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Mets	J.Garland vs C.Young	Mets	55.46%	59.39%	NYN 4-2
OAK	KC	Brandon McCarthy vs Luke Hochevar	OAK	TBD	61.77	KC 4-3
DET	TOR	Justin Verlander vs Ricky Romero	TOR	TBD	52.333	DET 9-0
CLE	LAA	Alex White vs Jered Weaver	LAA	TBD	68.056	CLE 4-3
TB	BAL	Jeremy Hellickson vs Jeremy Guthrie	BAL	TBD	61.241	TB 8-2
MIN	BOS	Brian Duensing vs Clay Buchholz	BOS	TBD	56.885	BOS 4-0
NYA	TEX	Bartolo Colon vs Derek Holland	NYA	TBD	50.253	TEX 7-5
COL	SF	Clay Mortensen vs Madison Bumgarner	SF	TBD	61.051	SF 3-2
CHA	SEA	Gavin Floyd vs Doug Fister	SEA	TBD	58.182	CHA 6-0
CIN	CHN	Bronson Arroyo vs Casey Coleman	CIN	TBD	51.916	CHN 3-2
ATL	PHI	Julio Teheren vs Kyle Kendrick	PHI	TBD	55.991	PHI 3-0
WAS	FLA	Tom Gorzelanny vs Chris Volstad	WAS	TBD	50.334	WAS 5-2
HOU	PIT	Bud Norris vs Charlie Morton	HOU	TBD	50.042	PIT 6-1
ARI	SD	Daniel Hudson vs Dustin Moseley	ARI	TBD	53.524	ARI 6-0
MIL	STL	Yovanni Gallardo vs Kyle Lohse	STL	TBD	63.783	MIL 4-0

Seasonal Money Line ROI: -1.93%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +9.48%

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May 6th Simulations

Troubled Franchises On Paper, Battle It Out On Field ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Mets	H.Kuroda vs J.Niese	Mets	53.81%	57.26%	NYN 6-3
Astros	Pirates	W.Rodriguez vs P.Maholm	Pirates	52.94%	55.89%	HOU 3-2
Yankees	Rangers	I.Nova vs M.Harrison	Yankees	51.10%	45.58%	NYA 4-1
Athletics	Royals	G.Gonzalez vs S.O'Sullivan	Athletics	52.72%	60.71%	OAK 3-2
White Sox	Mariners	P.Humber vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	62.19%	62.04%	SEA 3-2
Nationals	Marlins	J.Zimmerman vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	60.08%	54.21%	WAS 4-2
Brewers	Cardinals	R.Wolf vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	58.59%	70.69%	STL 6-0
Braves	Phillies	D.Lowe vs C.Lee	Phillies	60.24%	62.95%	ATL 5-0
Twins	Red Sox	S.Baker vs T.Wakefield	Red Sox	57.72%	59.58%	MIN 9-2
Rockies	Giants	U.Jimenez vs M.Cain	Giants	52.27%	51.42%	SF 4-3
Indians	Angels	J.Masterson vs T.Chatwood	Indians	52.04%	54.62%	LAA 2-1
Rays	Orioles	J.Shields vs Z.Britton	Orioles	52.27%	57.05%	TB 6-2
Reds	Cubs	E.Volquez vs M.Garza	Cubs	54.44%	57.95%	CIN 5-4
Tigers	Blue Jays	P.Coke vs J.Litsch	Blue Jays	52.04%	50.97%	TOR 7-4
DBacks	Padres	A.Galarraga vs T.Stauffer	Padres	57.17%	63.09%	SD 4-3

Vegas Daily Total Runs: 126 -110

Seasonal Money Line ROI: -3.32%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +8.56%

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April 9th, Dodgers vs Padres Simulation

April 9th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Padres	H.Kuroda vs D.Moseley	Dodgers	53.05%	51.34%	LAN 4-0
Nationals	Mets	T.Gorzelanny vs C.Capuano	Mets	56.33%	47.34%	NYN 8-4

Seasonal ROI: 6.44%

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