July 20th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	CLE	Miguel Gonzalez vs Derek Lowe	CLE	56.04%	55.96%	- - -
COL	SD	Drew Pomeranz vs Jason Marquis	SD	50.25%	54.62%	SD, 1.6u
MIL	CIN	Marco Estrada vs Homer Bailey	CIN	56.04%	48.98%	MIL, 2.4u
MIN	KC	Nick Blackburn vs Luke Hochevar	KC	57.89%	58.54%	- - -
SEA	TB	Hisashi Iwakuma vs James Shields	TB	63.17%	62.81%	- - -
TEX	LAA	Derek Holland vs Jered Weaver	LAA	58.76%	57.32%	TEX, 0.3u
TOR	BOS	Aaron Laffey vs Josh Beckett	BOS	62.76%	62.38%	- - -
ATL	WAS	Tommy Hanson vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	58.93%	63.80%	WAS, 2.2u
CHA	DET	Jake Peavy vs Justin Verlander	DET	62.76%	59.82%	CHA, 0.8u
FLA	PIT	Ricky Nolasco vs Kevin Correia	PIT	50.74%	50.80%	- - -
SF	PHI	Tim Lincecum vs Vance Worley	PHI	55.06%	56.41%	PHI, 0.4u
LAN	NYN	Aaron Harang vs Johan Santana	NYN	58.25%	58.08%	- - -
CHN	STL	Ryan Dempster vs Kyle Lohse	STL	59.27%	57.63%	CHN, 0.4u
HOU	ARI	Bud Norris vs Trevor Cahill	ARI	64.73%	61.67%	HOU, 0.8u
NYA	OAK	Ivan Nova vs Tom Milone	NYA	54.23%	52.68%	OAK, 0.4u

Today's Run Total Bets:
LAN vs NYN, Over 7.5 -110, 0.8 units
CHN vs STL, Over 8.0 -105, 0.8 units
HOU vs ARI, Over 9.0 +105, 0.8 units

Previous Day: +1.9 units (risked 4.4u) ML and -4.4 units (risked 4.4u) on Run Totals

Current ML ROI: 3.94%
ML ROI Last 50 Bets: 9.7%
ML ROI Last 25 Bets: 26.0%

Notes:  A good day on the ML bets going 5-2, but a bad day on the Run Totals going 0-3.  Going to tone down the Run Total bets until I start doing a little better there.  Today's biggest bet will be on the Brewers, who have Marco Estrada pitching.  He may only have 47 innings of starting pitching so far this year but his peripherals have been amazing.  They are sure to regress, but he is much better than his ERA and W/L 0-3 record suggest.  Other decent size bets are with the Nationals and Strasburg along with the Padres facing a shaky Colorado Rockies team.

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