July 6th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	LAA	Miguel Gonzalez vs C.J. Wilson	LAA	64.91%	64.68%	TBD
CIN	SD	Bronson Arroyo vs Kip Wells	CIN	53.70%	55.79%	TBD
MIN	TEX	Francisco Liriano vs Martin Perez	TEX	59.35%	59.40%	TBD
NYA	BOS	Hiroki Kuroda vs Josh Beckett	NYA	52.15%	46.09%	TBD
TB	CLE	Alex Cobb vs Justin Masterson	CLE	57.81%	61.07%	TBD
TOR	CHA	Aaron Laffey vs Jake Peavy	CHA	59.35%	63.89%	TBD
ATL	PHI	Tim Hudson vs Kyle Kendrick	ATL	53.70%	51.59%	TBD
COL	WAS	Drew Pomeranz vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	67.21%	68.19%	TBD
KC	DET	Jonathan Sanchez vs Drew Smyly	DET	64.91%	62.35%	TBD
SF	PIT	Barry Zito vs Erik Bedard	PIT	58.85%	55.28%	TBD
CHN	NYN	Travis Wood vs Johan Santana	NYN	61.83%	63.77%	TBD
MIL	HOU	Yovanni Gallardo vs J.A. Happ	MIL	56.90%	53.95%	TBD
FLA	STL	Ricky Nolasco vs Jake Westbrook	STL	57.265%	57.261%	TBD
LAN	ARI	Clayton Kershaw vs Josh Collmenter	LAN	51.46%	47.42%	TBD
SEA	OAK	Kevin Millwood vs Tom Milone	OAK	60.78%	55.13%	TBD

Previous Day: No Money Line Bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Trying something new today as I have a little extra time to run simulations and study output data. I am making a few prop bets for fun with some of the house money I have earned. I have been spinning my wheels on money line bets the past month and a half so I am giving this a go. Below are my prop bets for today. (And it turned out to be a dumb thing to try!)
* 4 units (-110) on Josh Willingham to have more total bases than Nelson Cruz. (Loss, -4 units)
* 2.2 units (-115) for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks to have less than 25-1/2 combined runs+hits+errors. (Loss, -2.2 units)
* 1 unit (+150) that the Astros score first against the Brewers. (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+140) that the Diamondbacks score first against the Dodgers (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+140) that the Padres score first against the Reds. (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+120) that no runs are scored in the 1st inning Twins vs Rangers. (Win, +1.2 units)

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard