Miami Marlins - 2015 Most Optimal Lineups

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I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 Miami Marlins (vs RHP).  I started out with 15,000 almost random lineups and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups.  Almost random, because I filtered out some obvious things like batting Stanton 8th or 9th or Dee Gordon cleanup etc...  For the starting nine players, I used the projected starting lineup from MLB Depth Charts The top 50 lineups all came within 0.85 wins per 162 games which is a pretty wide range for a top 50 lineup list.  When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems and the projected lineup from MLB Depth Charts finished 1.65 wins/162 games behind (not good).  You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors, such as rookies not being allowed to hit near the top of the lineup.  The simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups.  The simulator is a program that I wrote in C/C++ and I have back tested it against Vegas odds in the past to make sure it is good.  The program plays actual games, with actual baseball rules and takes pretty much everything you can think of into consideration.  This exercise is NOT trying to project what lineups the Marlins manager might or will actually use it is just outputting what it thinks are the best lineups.  Once down to the top fifty lineups, I simulated each lineup 2 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher.  Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups.

                                                             Top 50 Lineups

Rank	Lineup	Wins/162 Games Behind
1	Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0
2	Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.232
3	Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.250
4	Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher	0.308
5	Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Ozuna-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.359
6	Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher	0.374
7	Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Morse	0.384
8	Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Ozuna-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.386
9	Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.392
10	Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.438
11	Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher	0.443
12	Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Morse	0.448
13	Ozuna-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher	0.491
14	Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Morse-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.498
15	Gordon-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.525
16	Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Morse-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.541
17	Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.543
18	Gordon-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher	0.546
19	Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher	0.553
20	Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Morse	0.574
21	Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.584
22	Gordon-Ozuna-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.584
23	Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Hechavarria-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher	0.594
24	Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.605
25	Gordon-Yelich-Ozuna-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.613
26	Gordon-Prado-Ozuna-Stanton-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.633
27	Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher	0.641
28	Gordon-Yelich-Morse-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.642
29	Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher	0.648
30	Gordon-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.652
31	Ozuna-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher	0.653
32	Prado-Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.659
33	Gordon-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Morse	0.674
34	Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher	0.678
35	Yelich-Gordon-Ozuna-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.685
36	Gordon-Morse-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher	0.688
37	Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Ozuna	0.704
38	Ozuna-Gordon-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.723
39	Ozuna-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Gordon-Morse-Salta-Pitcher	0.725
40	Gordon-Morse-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.727
41	Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher	0.735
42	Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Pitcher-Salta	0.741
43	Gordon-Prado-Morse-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.758
44	Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Ozuna-Prado-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.770
45	Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Stanton-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.771
46	Prado-Gordon-Stanton-Ozuna-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.775
47	Yelich-Gordon-Morse-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.775
48	Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Morse-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.799
49	Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Morse-Ozuna-Stanton-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria	0.810
50	Gordon-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher	0.855
MLBDC	Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Morse-Prado-Ozuna-Salta-Hechavarria-pitcher	1.648
BAD	Salta-Hechavarria-Morse-Gordon-Ozuna-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Pitcher	4.400

                  Batting Order Frequency Table

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
Gordon	27	22	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Yelich	17	15	3	2	12	1	0	0	0
Prado	2	6	29	11	2	0	0	0	0
Stanton	0	0	12	28	8	2	0	0	0
Ozuna	4	1	3	6	20	14	1	0	1
Morse	0	2	3	3	8	22	8	0	4
Salta	0	0	0	0	0	1	33	15	1
Hechavarria	0	4	0	0	0	9	8	0	29
Pitcher	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	35	15

                    Synergy

20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences

Rank	Occurrences	Player 1	Player 2
1	48	Salta	Pitcher
2	29	Pitcher	Hechavarria
3	27	Prado	Stanton
4	23	Morse	Salta
5	19	Gordon	Prado
6	18	Yelich	Gordon
7	17	Stanton	Ozuna
8	16	Gordon	Yelich
9	16	Hechavarria	Gordon
10	13	Ozuna	Morse
11	13	Ozuna	Salta
12	12	Prado	Ozuna
13	11	Stanton	Yelich
14	11	Stanton	Morse
15	11	Hechavarria	Salta
16	10	Hechavarria	Yelich
17	9	Yelich	Prado
18	9	Stanton	Prado
19	9	Ozuna	Hechavarria
20	8	Yelich	Stanton
20	8	Morse	Hechavarria
20	8	Pitcher	Gordon

20 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences

Rank	Occurrences	Player 1	Player 2	Player 3
1	28	Salta	Pitcher	Hechavarria
2	23	Morse	Salta	Pitcher
3	16	Pitcher	Hechavarria	Gordon
4	12	Ozuna	Salta	Pitcher
5	11	Gordon	Prado	Stanton
6	11	Prado	Stanton	Ozuna
7	11	Hechavarria	Salta	Pitcher
8	10	Yelich	Gordon	Prado
9	10	Hechavarria	Yelich	Gordon
10	10	Pitcher	Hechavarria	Yelich
11	9	Gordon	Yelich	Prado
12	9	Prado	Stanton	Yelich
13	8	Stanton	Prado	Ozuna
14	8	Salta	Pitcher	Gordon
15	8	Hechavarria	Gordon	Yelich
16	7	Prado	Stanton	Morse
17	7	Ozuna	Morse	Salta
18	6	Yelich	Prado	Stanton
19	6	Stanton	Yelich	Ozuna
20	6	Stanton	Ozuna	Morse
20	6	Morse	Hechavarria	Salta
20	6	Hechavarria	Gordon	Prado

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Dodgers vs Marlins - Saturday's Simulation Results

Simulation Results...

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
Dodgers	Marlins	Paul Maholm	Jacob Turner	Dodgers	4.88594	4.04291	56.097	8.92885

Box Score...


                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Marlins	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Marlins	Occurrences
1	2	3	2995		51	8	5	708
2	3	4	2896		52	7	8	704
3	4	5	2593		53	3	7	701
4	4	3	2498		54	2	7	675
5	3	2	2459		55	8	1	660
6	1	2	2167		56	6	0	658
7	4	2	2109		57	9	2	650
8	5	4	2086		58	9	3	623
9	2	1	1865		59	0	4	612
10	5	3	1852		60	8	6	562
11	2	4	1826		61	5	8	561
12	5	2	1756		62	9	4	557
13	5	6	1754		63	4	8	553
14	3	1	1752		64	7	0	547
15	3	5	1731		65	8	7	532
16	4	1	1608		66	9	1	531
17	1	3	1535		67	3	8	522
18	6	3	1519		68	1	7	513
19	6	5	1474		69	0	5	486
20	6	4	1448		70	6	8	485
21	2	5	1401		71	9	5	474
22	6	2	1358		72	2	8	468
23	5	1	1321		73	10	2	437
24	1	4	1311		74	8	0	415
25	3	6	1240		75	10	1	414
26	4	6	1212		76	10	3	407
27	7	4	1158		77	10	4	387
28	6	7	1141		78	9	6	375
29	7	3	1108		79	8	9	350
30	7	2	1061		80	3	9	343
31	6	1	1031		81	1	8	342
32	7	5	1002		82	9	7	338
33	2	6	955		83	4	9	337
34	2	0	927		84	0	6	333
35	3	0	923		85	10	5	316
36	0	1	913		86	11	3	311
37	1	5	905		87	11	2	304
38	7	6	895		88	9	0	301
39	4	0	865		89	5	9	297
40	7	1	864		90	6	9	290
41	8	3	841		91	9	8	282
42	8	2	829		92	0	7	273
43	5	7	815		93	10	6	271
44	0	2	806		94	2	9	270
45	1	0	804		95	11	4	253
46	4	7	796		96	11	1	247
47	0	3	779		97	11	5	233
48	8	4	762		98	12	4	230
49	5	0	714		99	7	9	226
50	1	6	712		100	3	10	224

Disclaimer: Based off of 100K simulations with input statistics from Fangraphs Zips(U)

Best Lineup - Miami Marlins

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Miami Marlins.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres

See the results after the jump...

Dodgers vs Marlins - Simulation Results 8/22

Dodgers vs Marlins - Simulation Results 8/21

Dodgers vs Marlins - Simulation Results 8/20

Marlins vs Dodgers - May 10th Simulation Results

August 26th - Marlins vs Dodgers Simulation Box Score

                   |    Wins      Losses            RS          RA
  Dodgers  +------------------------------------------------------------------
                   |   60539      39461         435891    361701

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Bryan Petersen	4.370	1.193	0.838	0.241	0.015	0.099	0.324	0.310	0.404	0.907	0.327
Justin Ruggiano	4.354	1.201	0.807	0.291	0.013	0.091	0.401	0.266	0.240	0.952	0.317
Jose Reyes	4.208	1.331	0.971	0.260	0.038	0.061	0.428	0.277	0.337	0.429	0.356
Carlos Lee	4.108	1.157	0.831	0.238	0.005	0.082	0.534	0.182	0.324	0.471	0.326
Giancarlo Stanton	4.022	1.101	0.651	0.266	0.004	0.181	0.616	0.164	0.324	1.136	0.347
Greg Dobbs	4.045	1.165	0.843	0.237	0.004	0.082	0.436	0.145	0.212	0.664	0.322
John Buck	3.803	0.919	0.633	0.219	0.002	0.065	0.338	0.121	0.320	1.002	0.291
Donovan Solano	3.786	1.001	0.704	0.226	0.012	0.059	0.331	0.146	0.231	0.754	0.302
Pitchers Spot	3.783	0.520	0.425	0.083	0.002	0.010	0.157	0.096	0.134	1.654	0.154
Dodgers
Shane Victorino	4.319	1.314	0.879	0.272	0.056	0.107	0.372	0.400	0.325	0.489	0.357
Mark Ellis	4.197	1.240	0.842	0.300	0.018	0.081	0.467	0.280	0.316	0.569	0.342
Matt Kemp	4.117	1.403	0.866	0.330	0.028	0.179	0.656	0.288	0.343	0.716	0.410
Adrian Gonzalez	4.072	1.316	0.907	0.266	0.005	0.138	0.629	0.210	0.283	0.669	0.374
Hanley Ramirez	3.912	1.271	0.792	0.319	0.023	0.137	0.595	0.242	0.338	0.614	0.389
Andre Ethier	3.827	1.122	0.793	0.217	0.007	0.105	0.529	0.171	0.312	0.789	0.344
Luis Cruz	3.812	1.133	0.704	0.335	0.007	0.087	0.489	0.179	0.212	0.549	0.343
Matt Treanor	3.634	0.953	0.684	0.232	0.003	0.034	0.361	0.147	0.281	0.654	0.300
Pitchers Spot	3.677	0.609	0.482	0.110	0.003	0.014	0.193	0.115	0.144	1.253	0.185

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Mark Buehrle	5.990	3.911	1.462	7.462	0.667	95.157	4.074
Heath Bell	0.404	0.364	0.137	0.407	0.024	6.467	3.192
Steven Cishek	0.406	0.419	0.129	0.397	0.021	6.504	2.776
Mike Dunn	0.568	0.556	0.282	0.593	0.048	9.688	3.823
Ryan Webb	0.293	0.211	0.092	0.324	0.014	4.652	3.296
Carlos Zambrano	0.220	0.176	0.106	0.242	0.016	3.715	4.008
Chris Hatcher	0.515	0.391	0.226	0.609	0.067	8.682	4.690
Chad Gaudin	0.301	0.273	0.119	0.328	0.025	4.983	3.636
Dodgers
Aaron Harang	6.328	4.793	1.661	6.919	0.549	99.065	3.600
Kenley Jansen	0.443	0.726	0.114	0.296	0.033	6.954	1.670
Brandon League	0.374	0.317	0.102	0.373	0.017	5.814	2.912
Ronald Belisario	0.596	0.618	0.164	0.545	0.031	9.295	2.640
Randy Choate	0.250	0.288	0.075	0.216	0.015	3.933	2.565
Scott Elbert	0.148	0.156	0.048	0.142	0.011	2.374	3.037
Shawn Tolleson	0.670	0.633	0.199	0.665	0.053	10.592	3.227
Jamey Wright	0.452	0.436	0.161	0.433	0.021	7.253	2.952

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

August 25th - Marlins vs Dodgers Simulation Box Score

                   |    Wins     Losses           RS         RA
  Dodgers  +------------------------------------------------------------
                   |    59829    40171        359013   300848

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Bryan Petersen	4.357	0.939	0.719	0.143	0.011	0.066	0.216	0.229	0.269	1.544	0.252
Justin Ruggiano	4.249	1.119	0.716	0.311	0.011	0.081	0.317	0.243	0.238	1.157	0.307
Jose Reyes	4.153	1.265	0.925	0.249	0.037	0.054	0.349	0.254	0.272	0.575	0.339
Carlos Lee	4.023	1.118	0.776	0.264	0.004	0.074	0.470	0.169	0.315	0.566	0.323
Giancarlo Stanton	3.940	0.993	0.558	0.272	0.003	0.160	0.531	0.146	0.312	1.377	0.325
Donnie Murphy	3.940	0.997	0.662	0.273	0.006	0.056	0.356	0.131	0.189	0.972	0.288
John Buck	3.716	0.835	0.551	0.225	0.001	0.058	0.305	0.101	0.306	1.208	0.276
Donovan Solano	3.694	0.928	0.645	0.226	0.010	0.047	0.294	0.115	0.205	0.977	0.286
Pitchers Spot	3.675	0.422	0.334	0.077	0.001	0.009	0.125	0.071	0.129	1.969	0.134
Dodgers
Shane Victorino	4.174	1.190	0.812	0.253	0.051	0.075	0.285	0.366	0.378	0.638	0.338
Mark Ellis	4.093	1.094	0.779	0.239	0.019	0.058	0.387	0.230	0.313	0.821	0.310
Matt Kemp	4.014	1.211	0.793	0.259	0.028	0.130	0.520	0.245	0.348	1.012	0.363
Andre Ethier	3.861	1.109	0.722	0.277	0.008	0.103	0.516	0.195	0.429	0.878	0.353
Hanley Ramirez	3.819	1.109	0.734	0.252	0.022	0.100	0.488	0.206	0.339	0.862	0.348
Luis Cruz	3.823	1.016	0.673	0.271	0.007	0.065	0.446	0.154	0.211	0.779	0.305
Juan Rivera	3.666	0.974	0.680	0.205	0.006	0.083	0.426	0.126	0.255	0.689	0.311
A.J. Ellis	3.477	0.908	0.666	0.183	0.007	0.051	0.327	0.124	0.330	0.894	0.309
Pitchers Spot	3.575	0.463	0.376	0.075	0.003	0.010	0.131	0.089	0.144	1.731	0.150

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Josh Johnson	6.289	6.124	1.761	6.484	0.485	99.978	3.094
Heath Bell	0.420	0.380	0.142	0.415	0.026	6.696	3.191
Steven Cishek	0.429	0.445	0.136	0.416	0.022	6.865	2.751
Mike Dunn	0.574	0.540	0.296	0.605	0.051	9.831	4.021
Ryan Webb	0.269	0.196	0.083	0.292	0.013	4.253	3.312
Carlos Zambrano	0.196	0.156	0.092	0.212	0.015	3.281	4.008
Chris Hatcher	0.393	0.298	0.168	0.456	0.049	6.572	4.584
Chad Gaudin	0.182	0.165	0.069	0.193	0.014	2.979	3.558
Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw	6.661	7.333	1.457	6.252	0.445	103.174	2.522
Kenley Jansen	0.475	0.828	0.110	0.288	0.032	7.374	1.276
Brandon League	0.417	0.353	0.112	0.419	0.018	6.486	2.874
Ronald Belisario	0.604	0.629	0.164	0.565	0.032	9.450	2.629
Randy Choate	0.237	0.264	0.086	0.215	0.015	3.821	2.875
Rubby De La Rosa	0.133	0.136	0.039	0.124	0.010	2.088	3.011
Scott Elbert	0.525	0.560	0.171	0.508	0.041	8.442	3.053
Jamey Wright	0.254	0.245	0.096	0.247	0.012	4.116	3.017

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

August 24th - Marlins vs Dodgers Simulation Box Score

                   |    Wins     Losses           RS         RA
  Dodgers  +-------------------------------------------------------
                   |    67088    32912        431383   300279

  Vegas Odds:
             Money Line:  Dodgers -210/+200 (or Dodgers have a 67.21% chance of winning)
             Run Total:   Over 7 -107, Under 7 +103

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Bryan Petersen	4.270	1.052	0.742	0.210	0.014	0.085	0.257	0.264	0.371	1.185	0.298
Justin Ruggiano	4.236	1.066	0.713	0.261	0.012	0.080	0.324	0.228	0.228	1.228	0.292
Jose Reyes	4.107	1.254	0.915	0.248	0.037	0.055	0.363	0.247	0.311	0.546	0.344
Carlos Lee	4.010	1.084	0.779	0.228	0.005	0.072	0.464	0.153	0.305	0.596	0.313
Giancarlo Stanton	3.935	0.953	0.559	0.233	0.003	0.158	0.516	0.129	0.302	1.457	0.312
Greg Dobbs	3.946	1.064	0.779	0.213	0.003	0.068	0.366	0.117	0.195	0.848	0.300
John Buck	3.709	0.801	0.548	0.194	0.001	0.057	0.281	0.093	0.299	1.273	0.265
Donovan Solano	3.674	0.897	0.633	0.202	0.010	0.051	0.278	0.115	0.218	0.961	0.281
Pitchers Spot	3.666	0.388	0.315	0.063	0.001	0.009	0.114	0.071	0.126	2.082	0.125
Dodgers
Shane Victorino	4.243	1.282	0.867	0.270	0.056	0.089	0.349	0.410	0.397	0.486	0.358
Mark Ellis	4.157	1.198	0.850	0.260	0.020	0.067	0.451	0.274	0.334	0.628	0.332
Matt Kemp	4.080	1.341	0.878	0.282	0.031	0.150	0.611	0.293	0.360	0.788	0.392
Andre Ethier	3.917	1.205	0.782	0.298	0.008	0.117	0.599	0.233	0.448	0.695	0.375
Hanley Ramirez	3.885	1.216	0.798	0.275	0.026	0.117	0.580	0.251	0.349	0.671	0.373
James Loney	3.802	1.173	0.807	0.276	0.006	0.084	0.545	0.205	0.339	0.435	0.359
Luis Cruz	3.789	1.079	0.711	0.287	0.007	0.073	0.495	0.176	0.218	0.587	0.326
A.J. Ellis	3.553	1.003	0.731	0.203	0.008	0.061	0.427	0.148	0.348	0.706	0.331
Pitchers Spot	3.654	0.575	0.466	0.094	0.004	0.011	0.180	0.113	0.151	1.358	0.177

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Nathan Eovaldi	5.880	3.943	1.888	7.100	0.555	95.167	4.050
Heath Bell	0.364	0.325	0.125	0.371	0.022	5.846	3.225
Steven Cishek	0.408	0.404	0.140	0.407	0.023	6.587	2.992
Mike Dunn	0.581	0.558	0.290	0.613	0.049	9.926	3.882
Ryan Webb	0.294	0.216	0.082	0.330	0.014	4.644	3.173
Carlos Zambrano	0.221	0.179	0.105	0.246	0.016	3.740	3.949
Chris Hatcher	0.559	0.440	0.198	0.657	0.066	9.189	4.226
Chad Gaudin	0.318	0.290	0.115	0.348	0.025	5.224	3.466
Dodgers
Chad Billingsley	6.640	7.212	1.579	6.218	0.474	103.292	2.668
Kenley Jansen	0.466	0.805	0.111	0.293	0.033	7.274	1.390
Brandon League	0.379	0.313	0.103	0.380	0.017	5.881	2.943
Ronald Belisario	0.591	0.604	0.166	0.555	0.032	9.268	2.700
Randy Choate	0.238	0.267	0.082	0.211	0.016	3.802	2.855
Rubby De La Rosa	0.141	0.143	0.040	0.133	0.011	2.215	3.050
Scott Elbert	0.535	0.573	0.170	0.503	0.040	8.542	2.986
Jamey Wright	0.274	0.259	0.104	0.265	0.013	4.420	3.040

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
N.Eovaldi vs C.Billingsley

August 12th - Dodgers vs Marlins Simulation Box Score

                   |      Wins    Losses        RS        RA
  Dodgers  +------------------------------------------------
                   |     53448   46552      483133  426763

  Vegas Odds
                       Money Line: Dodgers -124/+119 or 54.85% chance of winning
                       Run Total: Over 8 -112, Under 8 +102

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Shane Victorino	4.526	1.391	0.878	0.277	0.113	0.123	0.460	0.440	0.427	0.654	0.375
Mark Ellis	4.444	1.304	0.882	0.301	0.037	0.084	0.536	0.301	0.368	0.752	0.343
Matt Kemp	4.361	1.468	0.900	0.334	0.056	0.178	0.707	0.310	0.396	0.903	0.409
Andre Ethier	4.257	1.235	0.834	0.262	0.015	0.123	0.613	0.236	0.404	1.081	0.350
Hanley Ramirez	4.144	1.325	0.811	0.341	0.035	0.138	0.644	0.277	0.409	0.798	0.389
Juan Rivera	4.097	1.199	0.785	0.287	0.011	0.117	0.608	0.207	0.333	0.659	0.349
Luis Cruz	4.052	1.174	0.735	0.343	0.043	0.054	0.472	0.217	0.268	0.714	0.336
A.J. Ellis	3.662	1.071	0.760	0.228	0.013	0.070	0.466	0.195	0.557	0.797	0.361
Pitchers Spot	3.951	0.615	0.485	0.111	0.006	0.013	0.220	0.125	0.182	1.591	0.179
Marlins
Jose Reyes	4.260	1.384	0.895	0.292	0.111	0.085	0.373	0.425	0.419	0.524	0.387
Donovan Solano	4.226	1.214	0.763	0.327	0.053	0.071	0.499	0.276	0.320	0.830	0.340
Carlos Lee	4.034	1.211	0.798	0.281	0.014	0.118	0.567	0.220	0.444	0.482	0.366
Giancarlo Stanton	3.917	1.168	0.637	0.299	0.012	0.220	0.715	0.195	0.470	1.067	0.394
Austin Kearns	3.886	1.120	0.762	0.223	0.010	0.125	0.529	0.186	0.395	0.951	0.352
Greg Dobbs	3.921	1.090	0.813	0.188	0.013	0.076	0.429	0.162	0.241	0.842	0.314
Justin Ruggiano	3.749	1.120	0.674	0.310	0.038	0.098	0.476	0.188	0.305	0.768	0.360
John Buck	3.526	0.909	0.620	0.202	0.005	0.082	0.413	0.148	0.423	0.894	0.324
Pitchers Spot	3.669	0.534	0.422	0.094	0.004	0.014	0.179	0.115	0.184	1.596	0.172

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Chris Capuano	5.810	5.062	2.017	6.697	0.685	95.700	4.031
Kenley Jansen	0.464	0.726	0.147	0.338	0.028	7.457	1.800
Brandon League	0.402	0.322	0.123	0.438	0.020	6.409	3.149
Javy Guerra	0.599	0.497	0.249	0.651	0.035	9.912	3.559
Randy Choate	0.296	0.282	0.140	0.303	0.019	4.984	3.531
Ronald Belisario	0.250	0.226	0.086	0.266	0.016	4.055	3.284
Shawn Tolleson	0.616	0.548	0.265	0.679	0.066	10.328	4.103
Jamey Wright	0.342	0.290	0.174	0.376	0.020	5.842	3.798
Marlins
Wade LeBlanc	5.874	4.609	1.914	7.182	0.576	96.617	3.882
Heath Bell	0.384	0.394	0.154	0.386	0.027	6.341	3.274
Steven Cishek	0.391	0.441	0.139	0.382	0.024	6.396	2.801
Mike Dunn	0.604	0.666	0.309	0.611	0.041	10.406	3.406
Ryan Webb	0.302	0.264	0.104	0.333	0.017	4.926	3.220
Carlos Zambrano	0.186	0.169	0.095	0.210	0.016	3.223	4.009
Chris Thatcher	0.804	0.748	0.388	0.962	0.135	13.994	4.975
Chad Gaudin	0.656	0.657	0.241	0.717	0.063	10.888	3.549

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores

August 11th, Dodgers vs Marlins

Rank	Winner	Dodgers	Marlins	Rank	Winner	Dodgers	Marlins
1	MIA	2	3	26	LAN	3	0
2	MIA	3	4	27	MIA	0	1
3	LAN	3	2	28	LAN	6	1
4	MIA	1	2	29	LAN	1	0
5	LAN	4	3	30	LAN	7	2
6	MIA	4	5	31	LAN	7	3
7	LAN	2	1	32	LAN	4	0
8	LAN	4	2	33	LAN	7	4
9	LAN	3	1	34	MIA	6	7
10	LAN	5	4	35	LAN	7	1
11	LAN	5	3	36	MIA	3	6
12	LAN	5	2	37	MIA	4	6
13	MIA	2	4	38	LAN	5	0
14	LAN	4	1	39	MIA	1	5
15	MIA	5	6	40	LAN	7	5
16	MIA	1	3	41	MIA	0	2
17	LAN	5	1	42	MIA	2	6
18	LAN	6	3	43	LAN	8	2
19	MIA	3	5	44	LAN	6	0
20	LAN	6	2	45	LAN	7	6
21	LAN	6	4	46	LAN	8	3
22	LAN	6	5	47	MIA	0	3
23	MIA	1	4	48	LAN	8	1
24	MIA	2	5	49	LAN	8	4
25	LAN	2	0	50	MIA	0	4

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

August 11th - Dodgers vs Marlins Simulation Box Score

                                 Simulation Results
                  |    Wins     Losses          RS        RA
  Dodgers  +-----------------------------------------------
                  |    57362    42638       468359  376082

  Vegas Results:
                      Money Line: Dodgers -125/+120 or 55.05% chance of winning
                      Run Total: Over 8 -115, Under 8 +105 (or around 8.3 runs)

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Shane Victorino	4.509	1.371	0.864	0.272	0.113	0.122	0.438	0.441	0.426	0.648	0.372
Mark Ellis	4.46	1.275	0.894	0.264	0.041	0.076	0.503	0.293	0.317	0.813	0.329
Matt Kemp	4.378	1.418	0.901	0.291	0.065	0.162	0.658	0.316	0.342	0.981	0.388
Andre Ethier	4.193	1.285	0.789	0.341	0.017	0.137	0.655	0.252	0.458	0.906	0.378
Hanley Ramirez	4.164	1.287	0.822	0.298	0.039	0.127	0.608	0.272	0.355	0.864	0.371
James Loney	4.054	1.249	0.837	0.311	0.015	0.086	0.571	0.233	0.374	0.585	0.361
Luis Cruz	4.065	1.122	0.726	0.3	0.047	0.049	0.487	0.198	0.229	0.769	0.317
A.J. Ellis	3.675	1.039	0.751	0.206	0.014	0.069	0.452	0.18	0.518	0.839	0.348
Pitchers Spot	3.945	0.579	0.467	0.093	0.006	0.012	0.201	0.118	0.159	1.717	0.167
Marlins
Bryan Petersen	4.153	1.138	0.767	0.227	0.034	0.11	0.336	0.326	0.492	0.992	0.343
Donovan Solano	4.197	1.113	0.728	0.275	0.055	0.054	0.35	0.292	0.275	0.954	0.31
Jose Reyes	4.012	1.288	0.843	0.275	0.106	0.065	0.47	0.307	0.414	0.512	0.381
Carlos Lee	3.93	1.122	0.781	0.238	0.016	0.086	0.562	0.196	0.381	0.532	0.34
Giancarlo Stanton	3.822	1.042	0.617	0.25	0.012	0.164	0.596	0.174	0.402	1.19	0.353
Greg Dobbs	3.845	1.113	0.783	0.245	0.014	0.072	0.442	0.157	0.281	0.713	0.332
Justin Ruggiano	3.723	1.038	0.659	0.264	0.039	0.075	0.415	0.153	0.265	0.871	0.331
John Buck	3.512	0.839	0.6	0.17	0.005	0.063	0.355	0.12	0.371	1.017	0.296
Pitchers Spot	3.628	0.468	0.376	0.077	0.005	0.011	0.148	0.095	0.161	1.795	0.153

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Joe Blanton	6.172	5.987	1.963	6.463	0.519	99.61	3.307
Kenley Jansen	0.487	0.75	0.163	0.359	0.031	7.867	1.949
Brandon League	0.403	0.311	0.13	0.434	0.019	6.422	3.233
Javy Guerra	0.582	0.463	0.253	0.638	0.035	9.674	3.685
Randy Choate	0.274	0.27	0.126	0.274	0.016	4.587	3.382
Ronald Belisario	0.227	0.2	0.081	0.24	0.015	3.679	3.392
Shawn Tolleson	0.478	0.417	0.212	0.524	0.052	8.018	4.211
Jamey Wright	0.213	0.178	0.115	0.23	0.012	3.659	3.893
Marlins
Ricky Nolasco	6.017	4.933	1.761	7.151	0.541	97.618	3.607
Heath Bell	0.376	0.379	0.157	0.383	0.026	6.25	3.33
Steven Cishek	0.404	0.452	0.149	0.4	0.025	6.648	2.858
Mike Dunn	0.625	0.701	0.312	0.628	0.04	10.74	3.285
Ryan Webb	0.31	0.267	0.113	0.345	0.017	5.093	3.287
Carlos Zambrano	0.18	0.159	0.098	0.202	0.014	3.134	4.113
Chris Thatcher	0.754	0.69	0.376	0.908	0.125	13.192	5.015
Chad Gaudin	0.549	0.542	0.211	0.608	0.053	9.168	3.645

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

August 10th - Dodgers vs Marlins Simulation Box Score

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Shane Victorino	4.561	1.409	0.887	0.278	0.116	0.128	0.458	0.437	0.366	0.629	0.373
Mark Ellis	4.474	1.325	0.895	0.306	0.037	0.086	0.537	0.294	0.313	0.724	0.342
Matt Kemp	4.392	1.500	0.916	0.341	0.059	0.185	0.714	0.307	0.339	0.875	0.411
Andre Ethier	4.279	1.250	0.847	0.262	0.015	0.126	0.605	0.231	0.356	1.048	0.348
Hanley Ramirez	4.175	1.346	0.822	0.342	0.036	0.146	0.636	0.272	0.353	0.776	0.389
Juan Rivera	4.116	1.215	0.796	0.289	0.011	0.120	0.595	0.205	0.290	0.641	0.348
Luis Cruz	4.071	1.193	0.743	0.349	0.044	0.056	0.469	0.216	0.226	0.694	0.336
A.J. Ellis	3.704	1.098	0.780	0.233	0.013	0.072	0.460	0.189	0.490	0.771	0.359
Pitchers Spot	3.945	0.627	0.490	0.116	0.006	0.015	0.215	0.125	0.160	1.541	0.180
Marlins
Jose Reyes	4.239	1.354	0.894	0.290	0.109	0.062	0.326	0.417	0.391	0.565	0.375
Donovan Solano	4.198	1.169	0.739	0.327	0.052	0.052	0.452	0.270	0.303	0.891	0.326
Carlos Lee	4.021	1.177	0.796	0.281	0.015	0.085	0.508	0.214	0.416	0.512	0.350
Giancarlo Stanton	3.905	1.093	0.624	0.294	0.011	0.164	0.606	0.185	0.439	1.146	0.364
Austin Kearns	3.876	1.075	0.748	0.222	0.009	0.096	0.465	0.178	0.366	1.022	0.333
Greg Dobbs	3.897	1.052	0.802	0.181	0.013	0.057	0.378	0.156	0.223	0.911	0.300
Justin Ruggiano	3.719	1.076	0.661	0.304	0.036	0.074	0.422	0.180	0.291	0.820	0.345
John Buck	3.511	0.866	0.605	0.195	0.005	0.062	0.367	0.138	0.397	0.963	0.307
Pitchers Spot	3.642	0.502	0.397	0.091	0.004	0.010	0.160	0.108	0.171	1.700	0.163

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Clayton Kershaw	6.173	5.880	1.952	6.640	0.479	99.969	3.252
Kenley Jansen	0.490	0.765	0.156	0.358	0.030	7.877	1.823
Brandon League	0.401	0.318	0.123	0.438	0.019	6.392	3.151
Javy Guerra	0.583	0.485	0.246	0.634	0.035	9.667	3.573
Randy Choate	0.277	0.269	0.134	0.287	0.017	4.696	3.529
Ronald Belisario	0.230	0.208	0.079	0.245	0.016	3.727	3.322
Shawn Tolleson	0.478	0.426	0.203	0.532	0.053	8.014	4.132
Jamey Wright	0.211	0.179	0.107	0.230	0.013	3.599	3.794
Marlins
Mark Buehrle	5.999	4.464	1.500	7.494	0.631	96.454	3.828
Heath Bell	0.370	0.376	0.152	0.372	0.026	6.123	3.327
Steven Cishek	0.402	0.454	0.145	0.394	0.025	6.597	2.834
Mike Dunn	0.606	0.671	0.314	0.616	0.040	10.484	3.386
Ryan Webb	0.308	0.270	0.107	0.336	0.016	5.017	3.172
Carlos Zambrano	0.181	0.164	0.094	0.202	0.015	3.134	4.000
Chris Thatcher	0.756	0.703	0.365	0.905	0.125	13.158	4.941
Chad Gaudin	0.590	0.595	0.216	0.645	0.056	9.799	3.524

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
Kershaw vs Buehrle - Tale of The Pitching Tape

April 4th Simulations

Cardinals VS Marlins

Away	Home	Away SP	Home SP	Vegas Fave	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Sim Win Prob	Sim Away Runs	Sim Home Runs	Sim O/U	Most Likely Score
STL	MIA	K.Lohse	J.Johnson	Miami	62.05%	6.9	57.10%	4.38	4.88	9.26	MIA 3-2
Skinny: Simulator sees this as a much higher scoring game than Vegas does. In fact after you adjust for home park, the simulator has these two offenses as the NL's two best. Josh Johnson is a tough pitcher, but coming off of an injury riddled season. Lohse is a bit of an enigma as one could easily argue that his good ERA and FIP were luck driven in 2011. At -160 on the ML there looks to be decent value on the Cardinals and with a run total of 7 +100 (Over) an over looks to be the smart play.

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Kyle Lohse	5.84	4.41	1.68	7.47	0.58	95.73	3.845
Jason Motte	0.41	0.46	0.10	0.41	0.02	6.51	2.448
Fernando Salas	0.41	0.45	0.13	0.44	0.04	6.71	3.317
Marc Rzepczynski	0.59	0.60	0.32	0.65	0.06	10.28	4.038
Scott Linebrink	0.29	0.26	0.13	0.35	0.04	5.02	4.506
Kyle McClellan	0.24	0.17	0.09	0.32	0.04	4.10	4.858
J.C. Romero	0.54	0.46	0.38	0.65	0.05	9.99	4.886
Mitchell Boggs	0.32	0.28	0.14	0.38	0.03	5.49	3.910
Josh Johnson	6.00	6.25	1.95	6.67	0.60	99.05	3.393
Heath Bell	0.41	0.45	0.13	0.40	0.03	6.61	2.865
Edward Mujica	0.38	0.39	0.08	0.43	0.05	6.07	3.376
Michael Dunn	0.58	0.63	0.30	0.64	0.08	10.13	4.430
Ryan Webb	0.28	0.22	0.12	0.33	0.01	4.68	3.471
Randy Choate	0.17	0.17	0.09	0.19	0.02	2.94	4.345
Steven Cishek	0.83	0.90	0.34	0.87	0.05	13.99	2.992
Chad Gaudin	0.52	0.50	0.27	0.63	0.09	9.18	5.000

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Rafael Furcal	4.517	1.296	0.856	0.328	0.024	0.089	0.375	0.353	0.837	0.337
Carlos Beltran	4.245	1.286	0.755	0.334	0.041	0.156	0.560	0.491	0.949	0.383
Matt Holliday	4.247	1.255	0.737	0.344	0.003	0.171	0.624	0.421	1.144	0.371
Lance Berkman	3.959	1.149	0.725	0.233	0.016	0.175	0.621	0.616	0.946	0.383
David Freese	4.201	1.213	0.837	0.271	0.011	0.093	0.515	0.257	1.153	0.331
Yadier Molina	4.071	1.230	0.858	0.276	0.005	0.090	0.510	0.263	0.637	0.343
Jon Jay	3.982	1.227	0.838	0.277	0.035	0.077	0.475	0.277	0.843	0.353
Daniel Descalso	3.701	1.036	0.683	0.259	0.030	0.064	0.452	0.447	0.868	0.345
Pitchers Spot	3.896	0.453	0.363	0.076	0.003	0.011	0.175	0.149	2.137	0.137
Jose Reyes	4.403	1.515	1.043	0.289	0.117	0.066	0.370	0.324	0.397	0.390
Emilio Bonifacio	4.233	1.342	0.994	0.239	0.064	0.045	0.490	0.369	0.815	0.357
Hanley Ramirez	4.182	1.370	0.939	0.313	0.011	0.107	0.720	0.346	0.723	0.377
Giancarlo Stanton	3.996	1.172	0.657	0.276	0.030	0.208	0.785	0.431	1.107	0.383
Logan Morrison	3.892	1.189	0.688	0.282	0.056	0.163	0.653	0.445	0.718	0.391
Gaby Sanchez	3.801	1.158	0.760	0.288	0.006	0.104	0.549	0.391	0.613	0.366
Omar Infante	3.882	1.294	0.958	0.217	0.059	0.060	0.511	0.204	0.476	0.364
John Buck	3.668	1.033	0.743	0.188	0.006	0.096	0.494	0.319	0.821	0.333
Pitchers Spot	3.743	0.596	0.481	0.099	0.005	0.011	0.196	0.147	1.429	0.178

>

April 27th Simulations

Pitching Wins Championships, Shitty Defense Loses Games ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	C.Billingsley vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	53.92%	57.76%	LAN 5-4
Blue Jays	Rangers	J.Reyes vs D.Holland	Rangers	63.24%	63.01%	TEX 7-6
Mets	Nationals	R.Dickey vs T.Gorzelanny	Nationals	51.92%	48.29%	NYN 6-3
Mariners	Tigers	E.Bedard vs J.Verlander	Tigers	66.10%	63.60%	SEA 10-1
Rays	Twins	J.Niemann vs F.Liriano	Twins	56.90%	59.46%	TB 8-2
Braves	Padres	T.Hanson vs M.Latos	Braves	50.98%	48.79%	ATL 7-0
Cardinals	Astros	K.Lohse vs J.Happ	Cardinals	56.71%	64.05%	STL 6-5
Athletics	Angels	T.Ross vs D.Haren	Angels	62.12%	59.64%	OAK 2-1
Reds	Brewers	S.LeCure vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	59.51%	57.02%	CIN 7-6
Red Sox	Orioles	J.Beckett vs J.Guthrie	Red Sox	59.68%	50.95%	BAL 5-4
Giants	Pirates	M.Bumgarner vs J.McDonald	Giants	54.75%	54.04%	PIT 2-0
Rockies	Cubs	J.Chacin vs C.Coleman	Rockies	57.45%	56.62%	Ppd.
White Sox	Yankees	M.Buehrle vs B.Colon	Yankees	59.68%	59.40%	NYA 3-1
Phillies	DBacks	C.Hamels vs J.Saunders	Phillies	60.16%	59.23%	PHI 8-4
Royals	Indians	J.Francis vs J.Tomlin	Indians	57.26%	55.32%	CLE 7-2

Seasonal ROI: -2.10%

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April 26th Simulations

Hook, Line and Sinker Ball ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	C.Kershaw vs C.Volstad	Dodgers	57.08%	51.13%	FLA 4-2
Rockies	Cubs	J.delaRosa vs J.Russell	Rockies	57.63%	52.85%	COL 4-3
Braves	Padres	J.Jurrjens vs A.Harang	Braves	52.38%	40.41%	ATL 8-2
Rays	Twins	W.Davis vs F.Liriano	Twins	56.71%	56.84%	Ppd.
Royals	Indians	L.Hochevar vs J.Masterson	Indians	59.84%	63.99%	CLE 9-4
Phillies	DBacks	R.Oswalt vs D.Hudson	Phillies	54.55%	51.95%	ARI 7-5
Mets	Nationals	C.Young vs J.Zimmerman	Nationals	53.70%	56.06%	NYN 6-4
Athletics	Angels	B.McCarthy vs T.Chatwood	Athletics	53.92%	57.70%	LAA 8-3
White Sox	Yankees	G.Floyd vs I.Nova	Yankees	55.56%	62.48%	CHA 3-2
Mariners	Tigers	F.Hernandez vs P.Coke	Mariners	53.05%	51.86%	SEA 7-3
Cardinals	Astros	J.Garcia vs B.Norris	Cardinals	56.33%	61.14%	HOU 6-5
Red Sox	Orioles	C.Buchholz vs Z.Britton	Orioles	55.75%	42.48%	BAL 4-1
Giants	Pirates	M.Cain vs C.Morton	Giants	57.08%	57.46%	SF 3-2
Reds	Brewers	M.Leake vs M.Estrada	Brewers	52.83%	44.46%	MIL 3-2
Blue Jays	Rangers	J.Litsch vs M.Harrison	Rangers	62.41%	60.01%	TOR 10-3

Seasonal ROI: -0.08%

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April 25th Simulations

Dodgers Look To Reel In For Real Marlins ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	J.Garland vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	57.63%	61.42%	FLA 5-4
White Sox	Yankees	P.Humber vs I.Nova	Yankees	65.03%	67.87%	CHA 2-0
Braves	Padres	D.Lowe vs D.Moseley	Braves	55.16%	50.82%	SD 5-3
Blue Jays	Rangers	K.Drabek vs C.Lewis	Rangers	59.02%	58.42%	TOR 6-4
Athletics	Angels	G.Gonzalez vs J.Weaver	Angels	59.35%	57.45%	LAA 5-0
Reds	Brewers	B.Arroyo vs C.Narveson	Brewers	54.55%	51.14%	CIN 9-5
Phillies	DBacks	C.Lee vs I.Kennedy	Phillies	59.68%	58.31%	ARI 4-0
Rockies	Cubs	E.Rogers vs M.Garza	Cubs	55.56%	57.37%	COL 5-3
Nationals	Pirates	J.Lannan vs P.Maholm	Pirates	53.70%	54.02%	PIT 4-2

Below are the results from the simulation of Monday's Dodgers/Marlins game. Keep in mind it is nearly impossible to correctly project out the exact lineups this far out in advance, but they should hopefully be pretty close.

Dodgers Hitting Results
Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA	BABIP
Jamey Carroll	4.4	1.25	0.826	0.301	0.046	0.076	0.289	0.261	0.896	0.327	0.342
Casey Blake	4.28	1.169	0.695	0.314	0.02	0.139	0.418	0.248	1.054	0.331	0.334
Andre Ethier	4.157	1.221	0.715	0.313	0.012	0.181	0.527	0.365	0.94	0.368	0.343
Matt Kemp	4.094	1.19	0.743	0.246	0.018	0.183	0.586	0.282	1.078	0.357	0.356
Juan Uribe	4.063	1.062	0.62	0.28	0.026	0.135	0.514	0.217	0.885	0.319	0.305
James Loney	3.924	1.13	0.691	0.304	0.016	0.119	0.473	0.287	0.727	0.347	0.329
Jerry Sands	3.832	0.985	0.662	0.19	0.007	0.127	0.439	0.218	0.973	0.308	0.314
Rod Barajas	3.653	0.815	0.514	0.184	0.006	0.11	0.364	0.299	1.059	0.286	0.284
Pitchers Spot	3.72	0.46	0.366	0.077	0.003	0.014	0.13	0.118	1.842	0.141	0.239

Dodgers Pitching Results
Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Jon Garland	5.65	3.943	2.173	6.807	0.647	93.501	4.447
Johnathan Broxton	0.393	0.468	0.154	0.358	0.035	6.467	3.156
Matt Guerrier	0.434	0.325	0.122	0.489	0.036	6.878	3.635
Mike MacDougal	0.714	0.544	0.314	0.798	0.063	11.885	4.146
Blake Hawksworth	0.402	0.298	0.183	0.48	0.057	6.811	4.925
Vicente Padilla	0.691	0.606	0.248	0.783	0.084	11.388	4.107
Kenley Jansen	0.334	0.403	0.161	0.324	0.04	5.717	3.803
Lance Cormier	0.018	0.011	0.01	0.022	0.002	0.314	5.1

Seasonal ROI: -0.01%

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