May 14th Simulations

Dodgers Look To Tomahawk Diamondbacks Rookie Pitcher ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
DBacks	Dodgers	J.Collmenter vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	57.36%	61.11%	ARI 1-0
Pirates	Brewers	J.Karstens vs C.Narveson	Brewers	59.60%	64.86%	MIL 8-2
White Sox	Athletics	G.Floyd vs T.Ross	Athletics	51.10%	57.89%	OAK 6-2
Marlins	Nationals	A.Sanchez vs L.Hernandez	Marlins	53.81%	52.58%	FLA 1-0
Royals	Tigers	J.Francis vs B.Penny	Tigers	57.17%	58.81%	DET 3-0
Mets	Astros	R.Dickey vs J.Happ	Mets	51.81%	51.00%	HOU 7-3
Cardinals	Reds	K.McClellan vs J.Cueto	Reds	54.65%	54.67%	CIN 7-3
Blue Jays	Twins	J.Reyes vs N.Blackburn	Twins	51.81%	49.64%	TOR 9-3
Phillies	Braves	J.Blanton vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	60.24%	52.17%	ATL 5-3
Mariners	Indians	E.Bedard vs A.White	Indians	55.85%	55.46%	Ppd.
Giants	Cubs	R.Vogelsong vs D.Davis	Giants	50.62%	51.40%	SF 3-0
Angels	Rangers	D.Haren vs D.Holland	Rangers	51.34%	50.68%	LAA 3-2
Orioles	Rays	B.Bergesen vs W.Davis	Rays	59.27%	52.10%	BAL 6-0
Red Sox	Yankees	J.Beckett vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	55.26%	63.18%	BOS 6-0
Padres	Rockies	A.Harang vs J.Chacin	Rockies	62.62%	63.71%	SD 9-7

Interesting story about Diamondbacks rookie starting pitcher Josh Collmenter.
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April 28th Simulations

Dodger Ownership Rests In Peace ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rays	Twins	J.Hellickson vs N.Blackburn	Twins	52.38%	54.02%	TB 15-3
Rays	Twins	J.Niemann vs A.Swarzak	Rays	52.38%	45.62%	TB 6-1
Blue Jays	Rangers	B.Morrow vs A.Ogando	Rangers	60.00%	59.43%	TOR 5-2
Cardinals	Astros	K.McClellan vs N.Figueroa	Cardinals	57.26%	58.88%	STL 11-7
Royals	Indians	K.Davies vs F.Carmona	Indians	60.78%	55.58%	CLE 8-2
White Sox	Yankees	E.Jackson vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	66.10%	68.46%	NYA 12-3
Red Sox	Orioles	J.Lester vs B.Bergesen	Red Sox	63.77%	60.71%	BOS 6-2
Giants	Pirates	R.Vogelsong vs J.Karstens	Pirates	51.92%	51.05%	SF 5-2
Mariners	Tigers	M.Pineda vs B.Penny	Tigers	53.27%	54.50%	SEA 7-2
Cubs	DBacks	R.Dempster vs B.Enright	Cubs	52.15%	47.94%	ARI 11-2
Mets	Nationals	C.Capuano vs L.Hernandez	Nationals	51.46%	58.22%	WAS 4-3

Seasonal ROI: -1.06%

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April 27th Simulations

Pitching Wins Championships, Shitty Defense Loses Games ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	C.Billingsley vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	53.92%	57.76%	LAN 5-4
Blue Jays	Rangers	J.Reyes vs D.Holland	Rangers	63.24%	63.01%	TEX 7-6
Mets	Nationals	R.Dickey vs T.Gorzelanny	Nationals	51.92%	48.29%	NYN 6-3
Mariners	Tigers	E.Bedard vs J.Verlander	Tigers	66.10%	63.60%	SEA 10-1
Rays	Twins	J.Niemann vs F.Liriano	Twins	56.90%	59.46%	TB 8-2
Braves	Padres	T.Hanson vs M.Latos	Braves	50.98%	48.79%	ATL 7-0
Cardinals	Astros	K.Lohse vs J.Happ	Cardinals	56.71%	64.05%	STL 6-5
Athletics	Angels	T.Ross vs D.Haren	Angels	62.12%	59.64%	OAK 2-1
Reds	Brewers	S.LeCure vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	59.51%	57.02%	CIN 7-6
Red Sox	Orioles	J.Beckett vs J.Guthrie	Red Sox	59.68%	50.95%	BAL 5-4
Giants	Pirates	M.Bumgarner vs J.McDonald	Giants	54.75%	54.04%	PIT 2-0
Rockies	Cubs	J.Chacin vs C.Coleman	Rockies	57.45%	56.62%	Ppd.
White Sox	Yankees	M.Buehrle vs B.Colon	Yankees	59.68%	59.40%	NYA 3-1
Phillies	DBacks	C.Hamels vs J.Saunders	Phillies	60.16%	59.23%	PHI 8-4
Royals	Indians	J.Francis vs J.Tomlin	Indians	57.26%	55.32%	CLE 7-2

Seasonal ROI: -2.10%

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April 26th Simulations

Hook, Line and Sinker Ball ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	C.Kershaw vs C.Volstad	Dodgers	57.08%	51.13%	FLA 4-2
Rockies	Cubs	J.delaRosa vs J.Russell	Rockies	57.63%	52.85%	COL 4-3
Braves	Padres	J.Jurrjens vs A.Harang	Braves	52.38%	40.41%	ATL 8-2
Rays	Twins	W.Davis vs F.Liriano	Twins	56.71%	56.84%	Ppd.
Royals	Indians	L.Hochevar vs J.Masterson	Indians	59.84%	63.99%	CLE 9-4
Phillies	DBacks	R.Oswalt vs D.Hudson	Phillies	54.55%	51.95%	ARI 7-5
Mets	Nationals	C.Young vs J.Zimmerman	Nationals	53.70%	56.06%	NYN 6-4
Athletics	Angels	B.McCarthy vs T.Chatwood	Athletics	53.92%	57.70%	LAA 8-3
White Sox	Yankees	G.Floyd vs I.Nova	Yankees	55.56%	62.48%	CHA 3-2
Mariners	Tigers	F.Hernandez vs P.Coke	Mariners	53.05%	51.86%	SEA 7-3
Cardinals	Astros	J.Garcia vs B.Norris	Cardinals	56.33%	61.14%	HOU 6-5
Red Sox	Orioles	C.Buchholz vs Z.Britton	Orioles	55.75%	42.48%	BAL 4-1
Giants	Pirates	M.Cain vs C.Morton	Giants	57.08%	57.46%	SF 3-2
Reds	Brewers	M.Leake vs M.Estrada	Brewers	52.83%	44.46%	MIL 3-2
Blue Jays	Rangers	J.Litsch vs M.Harrison	Rangers	62.41%	60.01%	TOR 10-3

Seasonal ROI: -0.08%

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April 25th Simulations

Dodgers Look To Reel In For Real Marlins ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	J.Garland vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	57.63%	61.42%	FLA 5-4
White Sox	Yankees	P.Humber vs I.Nova	Yankees	65.03%	67.87%	CHA 2-0
Braves	Padres	D.Lowe vs D.Moseley	Braves	55.16%	50.82%	SD 5-3
Blue Jays	Rangers	K.Drabek vs C.Lewis	Rangers	59.02%	58.42%	TOR 6-4
Athletics	Angels	G.Gonzalez vs J.Weaver	Angels	59.35%	57.45%	LAA 5-0
Reds	Brewers	B.Arroyo vs C.Narveson	Brewers	54.55%	51.14%	CIN 9-5
Phillies	DBacks	C.Lee vs I.Kennedy	Phillies	59.68%	58.31%	ARI 4-0
Rockies	Cubs	E.Rogers vs M.Garza	Cubs	55.56%	57.37%	COL 5-3
Nationals	Pirates	J.Lannan vs P.Maholm	Pirates	53.70%	54.02%	PIT 4-2

Below are the results from the simulation of Monday's Dodgers/Marlins game. Keep in mind it is nearly impossible to correctly project out the exact lineups this far out in advance, but they should hopefully be pretty close.

Dodgers Hitting Results
Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA	BABIP
Jamey Carroll	4.4	1.25	0.826	0.301	0.046	0.076	0.289	0.261	0.896	0.327	0.342
Casey Blake	4.28	1.169	0.695	0.314	0.02	0.139	0.418	0.248	1.054	0.331	0.334
Andre Ethier	4.157	1.221	0.715	0.313	0.012	0.181	0.527	0.365	0.94	0.368	0.343
Matt Kemp	4.094	1.19	0.743	0.246	0.018	0.183	0.586	0.282	1.078	0.357	0.356
Juan Uribe	4.063	1.062	0.62	0.28	0.026	0.135	0.514	0.217	0.885	0.319	0.305
James Loney	3.924	1.13	0.691	0.304	0.016	0.119	0.473	0.287	0.727	0.347	0.329
Jerry Sands	3.832	0.985	0.662	0.19	0.007	0.127	0.439	0.218	0.973	0.308	0.314
Rod Barajas	3.653	0.815	0.514	0.184	0.006	0.11	0.364	0.299	1.059	0.286	0.284
Pitchers Spot	3.72	0.46	0.366	0.077	0.003	0.014	0.13	0.118	1.842	0.141	0.239

Dodgers Pitching Results
Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Jon Garland	5.65	3.943	2.173	6.807	0.647	93.501	4.447
Johnathan Broxton	0.393	0.468	0.154	0.358	0.035	6.467	3.156
Matt Guerrier	0.434	0.325	0.122	0.489	0.036	6.878	3.635
Mike MacDougal	0.714	0.544	0.314	0.798	0.063	11.885	4.146
Blake Hawksworth	0.402	0.298	0.183	0.48	0.057	6.811	4.925
Vicente Padilla	0.691	0.606	0.248	0.783	0.084	11.388	4.107
Kenley Jansen	0.334	0.403	0.161	0.324	0.04	5.717	3.803
Lance Cormier	0.018	0.011	0.01	0.022	0.002	0.314	5.1

Seasonal ROI: -0.01%

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April 24th Simulations

Dodgers Dogs In Rubber Game ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Cubs	H.Kuroda vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	54.55%	59.94%	LAN 7-3
White Sox	Tigers	J.Danks vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	54.55%	56.79%	DET 3-0
Rockies	Marlins	U.Jimenez vs J.Johnson	Marlins	57.63%	55.88%	FLA 6-3
DBacks	Mets	A.Galarraga vs J.Niese	Mets	57.98%	63.88%	NYN 8-4
Red Sox	Angels	J.Lackey vs M.Palmer	Red Sox	57.26%	58.82%	BOS 7-0
Nationals	Pirates	J.Marquis vs K.Correia	Pirates	55.56%	52.88%	WAS 6-3
Royals	Rangers	B.Chen vs C.Wilson	Rangers	67.21%	72.70%	TEX 8-7
Reds	Cardinals	S.LeCure vs J.Westbrook	Cardinals	52.61%	53.04%	STL 3-0
Astros	Brewers	W.Rodriguez vs R.Wolf	Brewers	59.51%	51.21%	MIL 4-1
Rays	Blue Jays	J.Shields vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	56.52%	58.49%	TB 2-0
Phillies	Padres	R.Halladay vs W.LeBlanc	Phillies	65.28%	56.42%	PHI 3-1
Indians	Twins	C.Carrasco vs C.Pavano	Twins	54.55%	55.15%	MIN 4-3
Athletics	Mariners	B.Anderson vs D.Fister	Athletics	55.56%	53.99%	OAK 5-2
Braves	Giants	B.Beachy vs J.Sanchez	Giants	55.95%	65.58%	ATL 9-6
Yankees	Orioles	F.Garcia vs C.Tillman	Yankees	54.34%	50.70%	NYA 6-3

Seasonal ROI: 0.01%

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April 23rd Simulations

Lilly Longs For Lull In Longball ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Cubs	T.Lilly vs R.Dempster	Cubs	54.55%	60.04%	CHN 10-8
Rays	Blue Jays	D.Price vs B.Morrow	Rays	53.49%	51.76%	TB 6-4
Yankees	Orioles	C.Sabathia vs B.Bergesen	Yankees	63.24%	63.57%	NYA 15-3
Phillies	Padres	J.Blanton vs T.Stauffer	Padres	50.00%	55.15%	PHI 4-2
Indians	Twins	F.Carmona vs B.Duensing	Twins	54.95%	57.60%	MIN 10-3
Red Sox	Angels	D.Matsuzaka vs E.Santana	Angels	52.15%	49.58%	LAA 5-0
Braves	Giants	T.Hudson vs T.Lincecum	Giants	60.00%	64.95%	ATL 5-2
Royals	Rangers	K.Davies vs A.Ogando	Rangers	66.44%	62.20%	TEX 3-1
Rockies	Marlins	J.Hammel vs J.Vazquez	Rockies	50.74%	57.72%	COL 3-1
White Sox	Tigers	E.Jackson vs B.Penny	White Sox	51.46	48.86%	DET 9-0
Athletics	Mariners	T.Cahill vs J.Vargas	Athletics	53.27%	48.88%	OAK 9-1
DBacks	Mets	B.Enright vs D.Gee	Mets	55.16%	59.75%	NYN 6-4
Astros	Brewers	B.Myers vs S.Marcum	Brewers	61.24%	58.17%	HOU 9-6
Nationals	Pirates	L.Hernandez vs J.Karstens	Pirates	53.27%	47.71%	PIT 7-2
Reds	Cardinals	T.Wood vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	59.84%	53.94%	CIN 5-3

Seasonal ROI: 0.00%

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April 21st Simulations

This Bud's For Selig ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Dodgers	J.Jurrjens vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	56.33%	58.87%	LAN 5-3
Twins	Orioles	S.Baker vs J.Guthrie	Orioles	56.52%	63.85%	MIN 3-1
Nationals	Cardinals	T.Gorzelanny vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	61.54%	63.60%	STL 5-0
Diamondbacks	Reds	D.Hudson vs M.Leake	Reds	55.16%	58.29%	CIN 7-4
Athletics	Mariners	B.McCarthy vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	58.16%	55.17%	SEA 1-0
Red Sox	Angels	J.Beckett vs T.Chatwood	Red Sox	61.09%	60.21%	BOS 4-2
Indians	Royals	J.Tomlin vs S.O'Sullivan	Indians	51.69%	49.69%	KC 3-2
Pirates	Marlins	J.McDonald vs C.Volstad	Marlins	55.56%	53.35%	FLA 9-5
Phillies	Padres	R.Oswalt vs M.Latos	Phillies	51.98%	48.66%	PHI 3-0
White Sox	Rays	G.Floyd vs J.Niemann	White Sox	50.74%	54.47%	CHA 9-2
Astros	Mets	J.Happ vs C.Capuano	Mets	55.56%	60.17%	NYN 9-1

Seasonal ROI: 0.91%

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April 19th Simulations

Dodgers Undefeated With Jerry Sands ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Dodgers	B.Beachy vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	52.61%	55.62%	ATL 10-1
Indians	Royals	Jeanmar Gomez vs Bruce Chen	Royals	53.27%	52.54%	KC 5-4
Yankees	Blue Jays	A.J. Burnett vs Kyle Drabek	Yankees	50.98%	54.11%	TOR 6-5
Diamondbacks	Reds	Armando Galarraga vs Sam LeCure	Reds	60.00%	65.87%	ARI 5-4
Red Sox	Athletics	John Lackey vs Brett Anderson	Athletics	53.05%	62.65%	OAK 5-0
Tigers	Mariners	Phil Coke vs Doug Fister	Tigers	51.69%	45.32%	SEA 13-3
Nationals	Cardinals	John Lannan vs Jake Westbrook	Cardinals	59.68%	53.82%	Ppd.
Padres	Cubs	Dustin Moseley vs James Russell	Cubs	53.05%	55.02%	Ppd.
Giants	Rockies	Jonathan Sanchez vs Ubaldo Jimenez	Rockies	59.68%	54.06%	SF 6-3
Twins	Orioles	Carl Pavano vs Jake Arrieta	Orioles	50.74%	60.91%	BAL 11-0
Astros	Mets	Wandy Rodriguez vs John Niese	Mets	55.56%	55.68%	HOU 6-1
Brewers	Phillies	Randy Wolf vs Roy Halladay	Phillies	67.21%	68.07%	MIL 9-0
Pirates	Marlins	Paul Maholm vs Josh Johnson	Marlins	65.16%	61.96%	FLA 6-0
Angels	Rangers	Matt Palmer vs Colby Lewis	Rangers	63.37%	64.88%	LAA 15-4
White Sox	Rays	John Danks vs James Shields	White Sox	51.22%	49.95%	TB 2-1

Seasonal ROI: 0.23%

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Jerry Sands Major League Debut Game

April 18th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Dodgers	T.Hudson vs T.Lilly	Braves	55.56%	50.50%	LAN 4-2
Skinny: Expect a lot of ugly effectiveness from Tim Hudson who pounds the strike zone and gets a ton of ground balls. The Dodgers will need some BABIP luck to beat Hudson. The Braves meanwhile will be looking to blast one of the many fly balls that Ted Lilly serves up into the outfield bleachers.
Giants	Rockies	T.Lincecum vs E.Rogers	Giants	55.75%	49.60%	SF 8-1
Padres	Cubs	T.Stauffer vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	58.33%	52.50%	CHN 1-0
Angels	Rangers	E.Santana vs C.Wilson	Rangers	59.02%	65.02%	TEX 7-1

Seasonal ROI: 0.80%

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Try Now We Can Only Lose

April 17th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Dodgers	C.Carpenter vs C.Billingsley	Cardinals	55.16%	50.09%	LAN 2-1

Interesting simulation tidbits:
Most HRs in game: STL:Pujols, LAN:Ethier
Most triples in game: STL:Rasmus, LAN:Carroll
Most doubles in game: STL:Rasmus, LAN:Blake
Most hits in game: STL:Pujols, LAN:Ethier
Strikeouts/Walks C.Carpenter: 5.3/1.5
Strikeouts/Walks C.Billingsley: 6.1/1.9


Seasonal ROI: Less Than 0%

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April 4th Baseball Simulations

April 4th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Tigers	Orioles	R.Porcello vs J.Arrieta	Orioles	55.16%	57.00%	BAL 5-1
Braves	Brewers	B.Beachy vs C.Narveson	Brewers	50.00%	53.21%	ATL 2-1
Twins	Yankees	S.Baker vs I.Nova	Yankees	59.35%	59.21%	NYA 4-3
Mariners	Rangers	E.Bedard vs D.Holland	Rangers	60.63%	58.91%	TEX 6-4
Pirates	Cardinals	C.Morton vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	59.84%	60.58%	PIT 4-3

Seasonal ROI: 33.39%

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Simulation contest over at True Blue LA

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Angels vs Royals, Opening Day Simulation

Now let's look ahead for the Angels. It is March 31st, opening day and the Angels are on the road playing the Kansas City Royals. The opening day starters are likely to be Jered Weaver vs Luke Hochevar. Lineups and depth charts are taken from MLBDepthCharts.com and I know that some players (K.Morales) may not be ready by opening day. I ran the likely lineups through my baseball simulator for 100K games. Below are a detailed look at the results for us baseball starved fans.

Player	Pos		Player	Pos
Angels			Royals
Maicer Izturis	3B		Melky Cabrera	CF
Bobby Abreu	DH		Mike Aviles	3B
Torii Hunter	RF		Billy Butler	DH
Kendry Morales	1B		Kila Kaaihue	1B
Vernon Wells	LF		Alex Gordon	LF
Howie Kendrick	2B		Jeff Francoeur	RF
Erick Aybar	SS		Brayan Pena	C
Jeff Mathis	C		Chris Getz	2B
Peter Bourjos	CF		Alcides Escobar	SS

... And now the results!

Away	Home			Favorite	Win Prob	Over/Under
LAA	KC	Jered Weaver	Luke Hochevar	LAA	59.07%	8.55

No surprise as it looks like the Angels will be a solid favorite on the road in the season opener, but of course anything can happen.

Here is the hitters boxscore(s)

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA	BABIP
Maicer Izturis	4.533	1.329	0.781	0.412	0.033	0.102	0.478	0.363	0.704	0.353	0.329
Bobby Abreu	4.231	1.264	0.755	0.329	0.024	0.156	0.547	0.592	0.928	0.385	0.352
Torii Hunter	4.343	1.246	0.775	0.303	0.007	0.16	0.606	0.359	0.826	0.352	0.323
Kendry Morales	4.208	1.265	0.751	0.338	0.017	0.159	0.657	0.386	0.681	0.372	0.328
Vernon Wells	4.182	1.202	0.68	0.319	0.025	0.178	0.68	0.304	0.682	0.359	0.308
Howie Kendrick	4.158	1.311	0.804	0.373	0.051	0.082	0.532	0.214	0.7	0.362	0.364
Erick Aybar	4.004	1.15	0.761	0.259	0.079	0.052	0.446	0.262	0.637	0.333	0.331
Jeff Mathis	3.889	0.909	0.584	0.238	0.015	0.072	0.417	0.268	0.825	0.283	0.28
Peter Bourjos	3.866	1.023	0.647	0.256	0.061	0.06	0.414	0.185	0.726	0.307	0.313
Melky Cabrera	4.263	1.14	0.698	0.327	0.057	0.059	0.358	0.305	0.756	0.319	0.314
Mike Aviles	4.237	1.244	0.831	0.297	0.021	0.095	0.435	0.21	0.727	0.334	0.336
Billy Butler	4.049	1.177	0.716	0.332	0.004	0.126	0.505	0.33	0.764	0.353	0.333
Kila Kaaihue	3.963	0.999	0.678	0.209	0.014	0.098	0.429	0.359	0.917	0.31	0.306
Alex Gordon	3.806	1.002	0.627	0.237	0.014	0.124	0.472	0.413	0.928	0.337	0.319
Jeff Francoeur	3.824	1.017	0.672	0.22	0.015	0.11	0.437	0.23	0.825	0.316	0.314
Brayan Pena	3.676	0.907	0.65	0.223	0.005	0.028	0.288	0.268	0.822	0.283	0.311
Chris Getz	3.607	0.932	0.597	0.236	0.048	0.052	0.347	0.267	0.693	0.309	0.308
Alcides Escobar	3.549	0.905	0.616	0.198	0.053	0.038	0.323	0.181	0.681	0.291	0.306

And the pitchers boxscore

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Jered Weaver	6.396	5.274	1.652	6.738	0.545	99.864	3.434
Fernando Rodney	0.481	0.36	0.181	0.49	0.03	7.691	3.657
Scott Downs	0.404	0.288	0.104	0.426	0.025	6.231	3.353
Kevin Jepsen	0.602	0.484	0.252	0.614	0.033	9.812	3.565
Jordan Walden	0.297	0.249	0.129	0.31	0.028	4.901	4.058
Hisanori Takahashi	0.433	0.316	0.159	0.477	0.043	7.003	4.141
Rich Thompson	0.216	0.134	0.079	0.251	0.023	3.496	4.47
Bobby Cassevah	0.016	0.008	0.007	0.018	0.001	0.261	4.256
Luke Hochevar	5.9	4.097	1.755	7.014	0.696	94.648	4.238
Joakim Soria	0.39	0.418	0.073	0.357	0.023	5.929	2.372
Blake Wood	0.451	0.322	0.144	0.523	0.051	7.259	4.202
Robison Tejeda	0.759	0.675	0.272	0.806	0.069	12.341	3.673
Tim Collins	0.453	0.321	0.19	0.534	0.053	7.547	4.568
Jeremy Jeffress	0.914	0.641	0.385	1.053	0.08	15.143	4.203
Jesse Chavez	0.332	0.232	0.112	0.405	0.049	5.435	4.749
Kanekoa Texeira	0.005	0.003	0.002	0.006	0	0.087	3.739

Giants vs Dodgers, Opening Day Simulated Preview

The 2011 season begins for the Dodgers on March 31st at home in a game against the defending champions the San Francisco Giants. The starters for the game have already been announced. The Giants will start their long haired hippy, Tim Lincecum - while the Dodgers will counter with their clean cut and wholesome ace Clayton Kershaw, in what will be a classic matchup of Evil vs Good. I have gone ahead and simulated this game, making a guess at the starting lineups 100K times. Below are the lineups used and the results.

Player	Pos		Player	Pos
Giants			Dodgers
Andres Torres	CF		Rafael Furcal	SS
Freddy Sanchez	2B		Andre Ethier	RF
Aubrey Huff	1B		Matt Kemp	CF
Buster Posey	C		James Loney	1B
Pat Burrell	LF		Juan Uribe	2B
Miguel Tejada	SS		Jay Gibbons	LF
Cody Ross	RF		Casey Blake	3B
Pablo Sandoval	3B		Rod Barajas	C
Tim Lincecum	SP		Clayton Kershaw	SP

... And now the results

Away	Home			Favorite	Win Prob	Over/Under
SF	LAN	Tim Lincecum	Clayton Kershaw	LAN	53.972	5.81217

So we see that the Dodgers will likely be a slight favorite to win on opening day, but a win probability of just under 54% is pretty much a toss up game.

Here is the hitters boxscore

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA	BABIP
Andres Torres	4.27	1.006	0.576	0.317	0.025	0.088	0.282	0.337	1.287	0.296	0.317
Freddy Sanchez	4.218	1.16	0.772	0.309	0.01	0.069	0.301	0.281	1.002	0.318	0.347
Aubrey Huff	4.065	1.028	0.696	0.2	0.012	0.12	0.377	0.378	0.957	0.315	0.304
Buster Posey	4.054	0.997	0.694	0.236	0.004	0.063	0.344	0.304	1.043	0.29	0.317
Pat Burrell	3.824	0.881	0.525	0.226	0.002	0.128	0.427	0.433	1.29	0.309	0.313
Miguel Tejada	3.941	1.025	0.713	0.241	0.006	0.066	0.348	0.197	0.705	0.295	0.303
Cody Ross	3.738	0.862	0.557	0.206	0.005	0.095	0.346	0.288	1.165	0.287	0.31
Pablo Sandoval	3.467	0.718	0.465	0.18	0.006	0.067	0.289	0.422	1.375	0.279	0.321
Tim Lincecum	3.657	0.335	0.265	0.059	0.001	0.009	0.1	0.147	2.201	0.115	0.225
Rafael Furcal	4.043	1.025	0.652	0.264	0.037	0.072	0.24	0.347	0.867	0.31	0.307
Andre Ethier	3.87	0.971	0.568	0.249	0.011	0.144	0.376	0.448	1.021	0.333	0.306
Matt Kemp	3.95	0.947	0.605	0.202	0.03	0.11	0.37	0.272	1.205	0.297	0.318
James Loney	3.784	0.969	0.6	0.27	0.015	0.083	0.381	0.395	0.78	0.322	0.303
Juan Uribe	3.771	0.892	0.544	0.212	0.019	0.117	0.421	0.249	0.862	0.296	0.278
Jay Gibbons	3.578	0.816	0.473	0.2	0.007	0.137	0.4	0.363	0.838	0.308	0.261
Casey Blake	3.508	0.808	0.504	0.206	0.009	0.089	0.325	0.257	1.031	0.287	0.301
Rod Barajas	3.419	0.745	0.478	0.176	0.005	0.086	0.307	0.224	0.811	0.271	0.261
Clayton Kershaw	3.424	0.346	0.279	0.055	0.002	0.01	0.091	0.125	1.857	0.122	0.216

Pitchers Boxscore

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Tim Lincecum	6.488	7.057	1.889	5.41	0.621	100.544	3.143
Brian Wilson	0.474	0.582	0.124	0.338	0.029	7.2	2.319
Sergio Romo	0.439	0.485	0.101	0.359	0.041	6.651	2.891
Ramon Ramirez	0.625	0.452	0.212	0.609	0.066	9.751	4.147
Santiago Casilla	0.288	0.264	0.116	0.243	0.023	4.557	3.606
Chris Ray	0.38	0.276	0.159	0.376	0.047	6.104	4.59
Guillermo Mota	0.185	0.144	0.071	0.175	0.019	2.928	4.167
Denny Bautista	0.013	0.013	0.007	0.01	0.002	0.208	4.38
Clayton Kershaw	6.524	7.602	1.939	5.644	0.469	102.81	2.696
Johnathan Broxton	0.482	0.72	0.155	0.318	0.031	7.593	2.021
HongZhi Kuo	0.508	0.687	0.132	0.375	0.023	7.85	1.854
Kenley Jansen	0.732	0.959	0.245	0.555	0.042	11.602	2.339
Matt Guerrier	0.345	0.279	0.098	0.348	0.038	5.375	3.875
Vicente Padilla	0.621	0.622	0.159	0.602	0.077	9.695	3.567
Ron Mahay	0.161	0.15	0.054	0.162	0.022	2.587	4.131
Blake Hawksworth	0.007	0.007	0.002	0.007	0.001	0.118	3.974

AL Zero to Three VS NL Zero to Three

In case you haven't been following the series over at FanGraphs, Jonah Keri has put together an AL and NL All-Star team from players with less than three years of major league service, who are making at or near league minimum. The NL Zero to Three team was posted first, followed by the AL Zero to Three team. I volunteered to run a simulation between the two rosters to see which was the stronger team.

Here are the results...

Away	Home	Away SP	Home SP	Favorite	Win Probability
NL	AL	Clayton Kershaw	Clay Buccholz	AL	50.509
AL	NL	Clay Buchholz	Clayton Kershaw	NL	61.487
NL	AL	Tommy Hanson	Justin Masterson	AL	52.045
AL	NL	Justin Masterson	Tommy Hanson	NL	58.186
NL	AL	Mat Latos	Kyle Drabek	NL	57.194
AL	NL	Kyle Drabek	Mat Latos	NL	67.676
NL	AL	Travis Wood	Gio Gonzalez	AL	53.619
AL	NL	Gio Gonzalez	Travis Wood	NL	55.999
NL	AL	Jaime Garcia	Doug Fister	AL	52.062
AL	NL	Doug Fister	Jaime Garcia	NL	57.789

As expected the NL team dominates this simulation. Their average win probability over the 10 games is 55.01%. If you put that in per 162 games, the NL team would win 89.12 games.

Minor League Contract Team vs NL Zero to Three Team

In my next series in pitting "theme" teams against one another comes a series of games between the "All Minor League Contract" team and the "NL Zero to Three" team. As you can probably figure out the MiLB Contract team is made up of the best players signed to minor league contracts in 2011. The NL 0-3 team is made up of the best NL players with less than or equal to three years of experience while making close to league minimum. These two themes were created at FanGraphs recently. The MiLB Contract team was created by Dave Cameron in a blog entry here. The NL 0-3 team was created by Jonah Keri and can be found here. Obviously the NL 0-3 team will dominate such a matchup. This is a warmup to the NL 0-3 vs AL 0-3 coming next week. Rosters and results are below.

Lineups
MiLB Contract			NL Zero to Three
Pos	Name	Org	Name	Pos	Org
CF	Lastings Milledge	CHA	CF	Andrew McCutchen	PIT
LF	Laynce Nix	WAS	LF	Logan Morrison	FLA
RF	Jeremy Hermida	CIN	RF	Jayson Heyward	ATL
3B	Felipe Lopez	TB	C	Buster Posey	SF
1B	Casey Kotchman	TB	1B	Ike Davis	NYN
C	Gregg Zaun	SD	3B	Pedro Alvarez	PIT
2B	Adam Kennedy	SEA	2B	Neil Walker	PIT
SS	Adam Everett	CLE	SS	Starlin Castro	CHN
SP	Pitchers Spot	NA	SP	Pitchers Spot	NA

Now let's take a look at the starting rotations...

MiLB Contracts			NL Zero to Three
	Name	Organization		Name	Organization
#1	Freddy Garcia	NYY	vs	Clayton Kershaw	LAN
#2	Micah Owings	ARI	vs	Tommy Hanson	ATL
#3	J.D. Martin	WAS	vs	Mat Latos	SD
#4	Jeff Suppan	SF	vs	Travis Wood	CIN
#5	Rodrigo Lopez	ATL	vs	Jaime Garcia	STL

Next up... the results

Results
Away	Away SP	Home	Home SP	Favorite	Win Prob	Total Runs
MiLB Contracts	Freddy Garcia	NL Zero to Three	Clayton Kershaw	NL Zero to Three	72.75%	7.34
NL Zero to Three	Clayton Kershaw	MiLB Contracts	Freddy Garcia	NL Zero to Three	63.34%	7.48
MiLB Contracts	Micah Owings	NL Zero to Three	Tommy Hanson	NL Zero to Three	71.54%	7.83
NL Zero to Three	Tommy Hanson	MiLB Contracts	Micah Owings	NL Zero to Three	62.99%	7.92
MiLB Contracts	J.D. Martin	NL Zero to Three	Mat Latos	NL Zero to Three	73.20%	7.65
NL Zero to Three	Mat Latos	MiLB Contracts	J.D. Martin	NL Zero to Three	64.43%	7.78
MiLB Contracts	Jeff Suppan	NL Zero to Three	Travis Wood	NL Zero to Three	71.20%	7.92
NL Zero to Three	Travis Wood	MiLB Contracts	Jeff Suppan	NL Zero to Three	62.27%	8.01
MiLB Contracts	Rodrigo Lopez	NL Zero to Three	Jaime Garcia	NL Zero to Three	72.19%	7.81
NL Zero to Three	Jaime Garcia	MiLB Contracts	Rodrigo Lopez	NL Zero to Three	63.30%	7.91

Mean win percentage for the "NL Zero to Three" team is 67.72%. Extrapolated out to a make believe 162 game season of head to head games, the "NL Zero to Three" team would be expected to win an astounding 109.7 games and suffer only 52.3 losses.

Simulator Notes: My simulator takes into account (among other things) park factors, home field advantage, defense, splits, base running and uses a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections for MLB players.

Minor League All-Stars vs Dodgers

I've recently imported some minor league stats from ZIPS projections into my simulator and created a minor league All-Star team based off of the ZIPS projections (MLEs) of the best minor leaguers that have yet to crack the major leagues.  I then pit that team against a major league team to see how well they match up.  So far I have matched them up against the Royals and the Phillies.  The minor league All-Star team actually beat the Royals, winning an average of 51.72% of the time.  The Phillies on the other hand won 65.67% of the time.  Now I take a look at how the Dodgers did.  There are still a handful of teams that ZIPS does not have projections for at this time, so players from those teams are not eligible for the minor league All-Star team yet.  Jerry Sands is the only Dodgers to crack the minor league All-Star team (starting left fielder).

The methodology I used was to have each #1 starting pitcher face each other, both away and home. I then did the same thing for the #2 thru #5 pitchers, thus having a 10 game series. Each of the 10 games was simulated/played 100K times with the simulator spitting out a win probability for each game. I decided to use the same bullpens for each team (the Dodgers bullpen) and give all of the minor league players a league average defensive rating.

Here are the rosters of the two teams that I used.  Keep in mind that lineups don't matter much.

Lineups
AAA All-Stars			Los Angeles Dodgers
Pos	Name	Org	Name	Pos
CF	Charles Blackmon	COL	SS	Rafael Furcal
C	Devin Mesoraco	CIN	CF	Matt Kemp
1B	Brandon Belt	SF	RF	Andre Ethier
3B	Mike Moustakas	KC	2B	Juan Uribe
LF	Jerry Sands	LAN	1B	James Loney
RF	J.D. Martinez	HOU	LF	Marcus Thames
2B	Daniel Descalso	STL	3B	Casey Blake
SS	Grant Green	OAK	C	Rod Barajas
P	Pitcher	NA	P	Pitcher

Now let's take a look at the starting rotations.

AAA All-Stars			Los Angeles Dodgers
	Name	Organization		Name
#1	Michael Pineda	SEA	vs	Clayton Kershaw
#2	Julian Teheran	ATL	vs	Chad Billingsley
#3	Jake McGee	TB	vs	Hiroki Kuroda
#4	Christian Freidrich	COL	vs	Ted Lilly
#5	Mike Montgomery	KC	vs	Jon Garland

Now let's take a look at the game results...

Results
Away	Away SP	Home	Home SP	Favorite	Win Prob
Dodgers	Clayton Kershaw	AAA All-Stars	Michael Pineda	Dodgers	58.44%
AAA All-Stars	Michael Pineda	Dodgers	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	70.65%
Dodgers	Chad Billingsley	AAA All-Stars	Julian Teheran	Dodgers	56.59%
AAA All-Stars	Julian Teheran	Dodgers	Chad Billingsley	Dodgers	69.43%
Dodgers	Hiroki Kuroda	AAA All-Stars	Jake McGee	Dodgers	50.68%
AAA All-Stars	Jake McGee	Dodgers	Hiroki Kuroda	Dodgers	63.65%
Dodgers	Ted Lilly	AAA All-Stars	Christian Freidrich	Dodgers	52.91%
AAA All-Stars	Christian Freidrich	Dodgers	Ted Lilly	Dodgers	64.83%
Dodgers	Jon Garland	AAA All-Stars	Mike Montgomery	AAA All-Stars	52.67%
AAA All-Stars	Mike Montgomery	Dodgers	Jon Garland	Dodgers	60.16%

Mean win percentage for the Dodgers is 59.47%. So using the ZIPS projections as input for the AAA All-Star team and my proprietary set of projections for the Dodgers, the AAA All-Star team, the Dodgers beat up the AAA All-Star team pretty bad, a little bit worse than how badly the Dodgers would beat up the Diamondbacks.


Simulator Notes: My simulator takes into account (among other things) park factors, home field advantage, defense, splits, base running and uses a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections for MLB players.

All-Star Prospect Team vs Phillies

In my previous post I looked at how a minor league All-Star team would do against a bad American League team like the Kansas City Royals. That previous post pointed out that using my baseball simulator, the minor league All-Star team was a slightly stronger team than the Royals. Now I have matched that same minor league All-Star team up against one of the juggernaughts from the National League, the Phillies. For details of how I selected the minor league All-Star team please see my previous post.

In this exercise I had each #1 starting pitcher face each other, both away and home. I then did the same thing for the #2 thru #5 pitchers, thus having a 10 game series. Each of the 10 games was simulated/played 100K times with the simulator spitting out a win probability for each game. I decided to use the same bullpens for each team (the Phillies bullpen) and give all of the minor league players a league average defensive rating.

Here are the rosters of the two teams that I used.

Lineups
AAA All-Stars			Philadelphia Phillies
Pos	Name	Org	Name	Pos
CF	Charles Blackmon	COL	SS	Jimmy Rollins
C	Devin Mesoraco	CIN	3B	Placido Polanco
1B	Brandon Belt	SF	2B	Chase Utley
3B	Mike Moustakas	KC	1B	Ryan Howard
LF	Jerry Sands	LAN	LF	Raul Ibanez
RF	J.D. Martinez	HOU	CF	Shane Victorino
2B	Daniel Descalso	STL	RF	Dominic Brown
SS	Grant Green	OAK	C	Carlos Ruiz
P	Pitchers Spot	NA	P	Pitchers Spot

Now let's take a look at the starting rotations.

AAA All-Stars			Philadelphia Phillies
	Name	Organization		Name
#1	Michael Pineda	SEA	vs	Roy Halladay
#2	Julian Teheran	ATL	vs	Cliff Lee
#3	Jake McGee	TB	vs	Roy Oswalt
#4	Christian Freidrich	COL	vs	Cole Hamels
#5	Mike Montgomery	KC	vs	Kyle Kendrick

Now let's take a look at the game results...

Results
Away	Away SP	Home	Home SP	Favorite	Win Prob
Phillies	Roy Halladay	AAA All-Stars	Michael Pineda	Phillies	61.27%
AAA All-Stars	Michael Pineda	Phillies	Roy Halladay	Phillies	72.80%
Phillies	Cliff Lee	AAA All-Stars	Julian Teheran	Phillies	63.94%
AAA All-Stars	Julian Teheran	Phillies	Cliff Lee	Phillies	74.93%
Phillies	Roy Oswalt	AAA All-Stars	Jake McGee	Phillies	56.58%
AAA All-Stars	Jake McGee	Phillies	Roy Oswalt	Phillies	68.64%
Phillies	Cole Hamels	AAA All-Stars	Christian Freidrich	Phillies	63.06%
AAA All-Stars	Christian Freidrich	Phillies	Cole Hamels	Phillies	74.70%
Phillies	Kyle Kendrick	AAA All-Stars	Mike Montgomery	Phillies	51.52%
AAA All-Stars	Mike Montgomery	Phillies	Kyle Kendrick	Phillies	63.42%

Mean win percentage for the Phillies is 65.09%. So using the ZIPS projections as input for the minor league All-Star team and my proprietary set of projections for the Philadelphia Phillies, the Phillies maul the minor league All-Star team. I may attempt to run this exercise against one more major league team.

Simulator Notes: My simulator takes into account (among other things) park factors, home field advantage, defense, splits, base running and uses a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections for MLB players.

Helpful Sources:
MLB Depth Charts
Fangraphs

All-Star Prospect Team vs KC Royals

A FanPost at the Beyond The Boxscore a few weeks ago got me thinking about how well a team pieced together from the minor leagues best prospects would do playing against major league teams. What a perfect exercise to use my simulator for. What I did is took the ZIPS projections of the best minor leaguers and used them as input into my baseball simulator and played this imaginary team against a real MLB team. I filtered these minor leaguers to only use players under the age of 25 with little or no MLB experience. There are still a handful of teams that ZIPS does not have projections for at this time, so players from those teams are not eligible yet.

After building my minor league All-Star team, the first team I decided to have them face was the Kansas City Royals, who are likely the American Leagues worst team. In this exercise I had each #1 starting pitcher face each other, both away and home. I then did the same thing for the #2 thru #5 pitchers, thus having a 10 game series. Each of the 10 games was simulated/played 100K times with the simulator spitting out a win probability for each game. I decided to use the same bullpens for each team (the Royals bullpen) and give all of the minor league players a league average defensive rating.

Here are the rosters of the two teams that I used.

Lineups
AAA All-Stars			Kansas City Royals
Pos	Name	Org	Name	Pos
CF	Charles Blackmon	COL	CF	Melky Cabrera
C	Devin Mesoraco	CIN	2B	Chris Getz
1B	Brandon Belt	SF	LF	Alex Gordon
3B	Mike Moustakas	KC	DH	Billy Butler
DH	Freddie Freeman	ATL	RF	Jeff Francoeur
LF	Jerry Sands	LAN	1B	Kaile Kaaihue
RF	J.D. Martinez	HOU	3B	Mike Aviles
2B	Daniel Descalso	STL	C	Jason Kendall
SS	Grant Green	OAK	SS	Alcides Escobar

Now let's take a look at the starting rotations.

AAA All-Stars			Kansas City Royals
	Name	Organization		Name
#1	Michael Pineda	SEA	vs	Luke Hochevar
#2	Julian Teheran	ATL	vs	Kyle Davies
#3	Jake McGee	TB	vs	Bruce Chen
#4	Christian Freidrich	COL	vs	Vinny Mazzaro
#5	Mike Montgomery	KC	vs	Jeff Francis

Now let's take a look at the game results...

Results
Away	Away SP	Home	Home SP	Favorite	Win Prob
Royals	Luke Hochever	AAA All-Stars	Michael Pineda	AAA All-Stars	56.57%
AAA All-Stars	Michael Pineda	Royals	Luke Hochever	Royals	52.55%
Royals	Kyle Davies	AAA All-Stars	Julian Teheran	AAA All-Stars	55.24%
AAA All-Stars	Julian Teheran	Royals	Kyle Davies	Royals	53.69%
Royals	Bruce Chen	AAA All-Stars	Jake McGee	AAA All-Stars	59.77%
AAA All-Stars	Jake McGee	Royals	Bruce Chen	AAA All-Stars	50.03%
Royals	Vinny Mazzaro	AAA All-Stars	Christian Freidrich	AAA All-Stars	55.71%
AAA All-Stars	Christian Freidrich	Royals	Vinny Mazzaro	Royals	53.04%
Royals	Jeff Francis	AAA All-Stars	Mike Montgomery	AAA All-Stars	53.99%
AAA All-Stars	Mike Montgomery	Royals	Jeff Francis	Royals	54.80%

Mean win percentage for the AAA All-Stars is 51.722%. So using the ZIPS projections as input for the AAA All-Star team and my proprietary set of projections for the Kansas City Royals, the AAA All-Star team is slightly stronger. Up next, I will attempt to run this same exercise with a National League team - probably a good one. I am thinking about doing it for the Phillies.


Simulator Notes: My simulator takes into account (among other things) park factors, home field advantage, defense, splits, base running and uses a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections for MLB players.

DBacks vs Dodgers, 2011 Pre-Season Simulations

In the previous days, I've looked at the Dodgers simulations against the Giants , Rockies and Padres, now it's time to look at the final NL West opponent, the Arizona Diamondbacks. In this exercise, each pitching matchup was simulated 100K times with each team taking a shot at being both the away and home team. Below are the lineups, starting rotations used as well as the results (50). A hit tip to Jim McLellan from AZ Snakepit for helping me out with the Diamondbacks batting lineups.

Diamondbacks Starting Lineup					Dodgers Starting Lineup
Diamondbacks vs LHP			Diamondbacks vs RHP			Dodgers vs LHP		Dodgers vs RHP
Order	Pos	Name	Pos	Name		Pos	Name	Pos	Name
1	SS	S.Drew	SS	S.Drew		SS	R.Furcal	SS	R.Furcal
2	CF	C.Young	RF	J.Upton		CF	M.Kemp	CF	M.Kemp
3	2B	K.Johnson	2B	K.Johnson		RF	A.Ethier	RF	A.Ethier
4	RF	J.Upton	CF	C.Young		3B	C.Blake	1B	J.Loney
5	C	M.Montero	C	M.Montero		2B	J.Uribe	3B	C.Blake
6	LF	X.Nady	LF	X.Nady		LF	M.Thames	2B	J.Uribe
7	3B	M.Mora	1B	J.Miranda		1B	J.Loney	LF	J.Gibbons
8	1B	J.Miranda	3B	M.Mora		C	R.Barajas	C	R.Barajas

Diamondbacks Rotation		Dodgers Rotation
#1	Daniel Hudson	#1	Clayton Kershaw
#2	Ian Kennedy	#2	Chad Billingsley
#3	Joe Saunders	#3	Hiroki Kuroda
#4	Zach Duke	#4	Ted Lilly
#5	Armando Galarraga	#5	Jon Garland

Simulation Results
Away Starter	Home Starter	Favorite	Win Prob
Daniel Hudson	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	63.32%
Clayton Kershaw	Daniel Hudson	Dodgers	53.45%
Daniel Hudson	Chad Billingsley	Dodgers	64.59%
Chad Billingsley	Daniel Hudson	Dodgers	54.03%
Daniel Hudson	Hiroki Kuroda	Dodgers	62.27%
Hiroki Kuroda	Daniel Hudson	Dodgers	52.08%
Daniel Hudson	Ted Lilly	Dodgers	54.44%
Ted Lilly	Daniel Hudson	Diamondbacks	54.75%
Daniel Hudson	Jon Garland	Dodgers	55.13%
Jon Garland	Daniel Hudson	Diamondbacks	55.93%
Ian Kennedy	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	65.79%
Clayton Kershaw	Ian Kennedy	Dodgers	55.39%
Ian Kennedy	Chad Billingsley	Dodgers	66.93%
Chad Billingsley	Ian Kennedy	Dodgers	56.19%
Ian Kennedy	Hiroki Kuroda	Dodgers	64.73%
Hiroki Kuroda	Ian Kennedy	Dodgers	54.25%
Ian Kennedy	Ted Lilly	Dodgers	56.88%
Ted Lilly	Ian Kennedy	Diamondbacks	52.54%
Ian Kennedy	Jon Garland	Dodgers	52.18%
Jon Garland	Ian Kennedy	Diamondbacks	53.45%
Joe Saunders	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	67.00%
Clayton Kershaw	Joe Saunders	Dodgers	57.28%
Joe Saunders	Chad Billingsley	Dodgers	68.20%
Chad Billingsley	Joe Saunders	Dodgers	57.86%
Joe Saunders	Hiroki Kuroda	Dodgers	65.78%
Hiroki Kuroda	Joe Saunders	Dodgers	56.17%
Joe Saunders	Ted Lilly	Dodgers	58.32%
Ted Lilly	Joe Saunders	Diamondbacks	50.40%
Joe Saunders	Jon Garland	Dodgers	58.59%
Jon Garland	Joe Saunders	Diamondbacks	51.62%
Zach Duke	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	69.01%
Clayton Kershaw	Zach Duke	Dodgers	58.97%
Zach Duke	Chad Billingsley	Dodgers	69.91%
Chad Billingsley	Zach Duke	Dodgers	59.55%
Zach Duke	Hiroki Kuroda	Dodgers	67.66%
Hiroki Kuroda	Zach Duke	Dodgers	57.76%
Zach Duke	Ted Lilly	Dodgers	59.83%
Ted Lilly	Zach Duke	Dodgers	50.99%
Zach Duke	Jon Garland	Dodgers	60.73%
Jon Garland	Zach Duke	Dodgers	50.26%
Armando Galarraga	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	70.65%
Clayton Kershaw	Armando Galarraga	Dodgers	61.77%
Armando Galarraga	Chad Billingsley	Dodgers	71.93%
Chad Billingsley	Armando Galarraga	Dodgers	62.22%
Armando Galarraga	Hiroki Kuroda	Dodgers	69.74%
Hiroki Kuroda	Armando Galarraga	Dodgers	60.46%
Armando Galarraga	Ted Lilly	Dodgers	62.30%
Ted Lilly	Armando Galarraga	Dodgers	54.05%
Armando Galarraga	Jon Garland	Dodgers	62.82%
Jon Garland	Armando Galarraga	Dodgers	52.93%

When you average the combined win probability of all fifty games, the Dodgers have an average win probability of 58.42%. Extrapolated out over a 162 game season the Dodgers would win 94.65 games and the Diamondbacks would win 67.35. The Diamondbacks will likely struggle this year.

Sources:
MLB Depth Charts
Fangraphs
AZ Snakepit