Simulated 2011 NL West Projected Wins

Using my simulator to play out the 2011 schedules for NL West teams. Each game of each team's actual schedule was simulated 10,000 times. There is obviously some margin of error in these numbers. But they should be as good as anything anybody else puts out there.

Team	Wins	Losses	WPct
Giants	88.2	73.8	.544
Rockies	86.8	75.2	.536
Dodgers	85.2	76.8	.526
Padres	81.0	81.0	.500
Diamondbacks	68.9	93.1	.425

Notes: My simulator uses a proprietary set of player projections as input. It also takes into consideration defense, home field advantage, park factors, splits, bullpens, speed, among many other things.

Dodger Crystal Ball

It's time to leave the world of WAR and move onto what should hopefully be a better indicator of team talent in terms of projecting a 2010 win total. I have programmed up my baseball simulator with the first 50 games of the Dodgers schedule. Taking the Dodgers win probability from each game and adding them all together and dividing by 50 you get the Dodgers 50 game win total expectancy.

As part of this exercise, I had to make a few assumption in order to keep this from becoming a science project. I used roster depth charts from Yahoo sports, using the same starting lineup for each team, in each and every game. I used 5 man starting rotations, skipping the 5th starter when their turn was not needed. For the Dodgers, I split 5th starter starts between Eric Stults and James McDonald. For player projection inputs, I generate my own player projections.

For a detailed description of the results, please navigate to this Fanpost at the Dodgers True Blue LA blog.

As time permits, I will add 10-20 games to the simulation per week and update the table below.

Team	Games Played	Wins	Losses	Win %
Dodgers	50	29.7	20.3	.594

Super Bowl Odds