Showing posts with label Money line. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Money line. Show all posts
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Money Line to Win Percentage Calculator
I have created an online (Google Docs Spreadsheet) Money Line to Win Percentage Calculator. Click on the link and enter the ML for the favorite and underdog teams and the expected win percentage based on those odds will be calculated for you. Please give me feedback if you can if the calculator works for you.
Friday, August 03, 2007
Converting Vegas Odds to an Expected Win Percentage
Now that I am comparing my simulation results to the Las Vegas-Hilton oddsmakers. I need to post the conversion algorithm to go from Vegas odds to an expected win percentage. You will often see a Vegas baseball favorite listed as -155. Well does that mean they are saying the team has a 55%, 60%, 65% etc..., chance of winning? The conversion formula is:
WinExp% = [ABS(Favorite + 5) / 100] / ([ABS(Favorite + 5) / 100] + 1)
The -155 we looked at in the example becomes...
WinExp% = [ABS(-155 + 5) / 100] / ([ABS(-155 + 5) / 100] + 1)
Simplified to...
WinExp% = 1.5 / (1.5 + 1)
Which gives us... 1.5 / 2.5 = 0.6 or a 60% chance of winning.
Note: This algorithm had to strip out the house edge that Vegas add to each line.
Feel free to use my handy Money Line to Win Percentage Calculator, via Google docs.
WinExp% = [ABS(Favorite + 5) / 100] / ([ABS(Favorite + 5) / 100] + 1)
The -155 we looked at in the example becomes...
WinExp% = [ABS(-155 + 5) / 100] / ([ABS(-155 + 5) / 100] + 1)
Simplified to...
WinExp% = 1.5 / (1.5 + 1)
Which gives us... 1.5 / 2.5 = 0.6 or a 60% chance of winning.
Note: This algorithm had to strip out the house edge that Vegas add to each line.
Feel free to use my handy Money Line to Win Percentage Calculator, via Google docs.
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