MLB 2014 Odds To Win World Series

World Series Odds as of 3/1/2014

Rank	Team	Odds to 1
1	Dodgers	6.5
2	Tigers	9
3	Cardinals	10
4	Red Sox	12
5	Yankees	12
6	Rays	12
7	Nationals	12
8	Giants	16
9	Rangers	16
10	Athletics	18
11	Braves	20
12	Angels	20
13	Reds	22
14	Pirates	28
15	Mariners	28
16	Orioles	33
17	Royals	33
18	Phillies	33
19	Blue Jays	33
20	Indians	40
21	Diamondbacks	50
22	Cubs	50
23	White Sox	50
24	Brewers	50
25	Padres	50
26	Mets	66
27	Rockies	75
28	Marlins	100
29	Twins	100
30	Astros	200

Source: Bovada

Best Lineup - Boston Red Sox

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Boston Red Sox.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.  In fact, I know that many of the results will not happen due to manager philosophies and veteran favoritism but these are the most optimal lineups that the simulator spit out.  In some cases the top couple of lineups had very small differences in results. The starting nine players were taken from MLBDepthCharts website.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics | Astros
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants | Brewers | Dodgers

                 Red Sox 2014 ZIPS Hitting Projections

	K%	BB%	AVE	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Shane Victorino	13.4%	6.6%	0.269	0.331	0.420	0.751	0.331
Dustin Pedroia	11.1%	9.3%	0.285	0.352	0.425	0.777	0.340
David Ortiz	15.5%	12.9%	0.296	0.386	0.552	0.938	0.377
Mike Napoli	30.5%	12.2%	0.241	0.342	0.466	0.808	0.350
Xander Bogaerts	23.6%	8.0%	0.267	0.331	0.429	0.760	0.333
Daniel Nava	20.8%	8.8%	0.257	0.344	0.384	0.728	0.322
Jonny Gomes	26.9%	11.4%	0.236	0.335	0.408	0.743	0.327
Jackie Bradley	23.3%	8.4%	0.245	0.322	0.375	0.697	0.308
Will Middlebrooks	26.0%	5.2%	0.249	0.291	0.425	0.716	0.312
A.J. Pierzynski	15.4%	2.9%	0.267	0.297	0.430	0.727	0.312

See the results after the jump

Best Lineup - Houston Astros

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Houston Astros.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.  In fact, I know that many of the results will not happen due to manager philosophies and veteran favoritism but these are the most optimal lineups that the simulator spit out.  In some cases the top couple of lineups had very small differences in results. The starting nine players were taken from MLBDepthCharts website.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants | Brewers | Dodgers

                 Astros 2014 ZIPS Hitting Projections

	K%	BB%	AVE	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Dexter Fowler	28.3%	13.7%	0.247	0.354	0.382	0.736	0.328
L.J. Hoes	16.7%	8.4%	0.271	0.337	0.366	0.703	0.313
Jason Castro	24.9%	10.8%	0.256	0.337	0.439	0.776	0.335
Chris Carter	33.8%	11.4%	0.228	0.319	0.461	0.780	0.340
Marc Krauss	30.1%	10.3%	0.213	0.298	0.369	0.667	0.296
Robbie Grossman	27.1%	11.2%	0.228	0.321	0.330	0.651	0.289
Jonathan Villar	27.8%	7.3%	0.235	0.295	0.356	0.651	0.287
Jose Altuve	12.5%	5.1%	0.285	0.323	0.384	0.707	0.308
Matt Dominguez	15.8%	5.3%	0.249	0.294	0.395	0.689	0.300
Jesus Guzman	22.8%	8.5%	0.249	0.318	0.416	0.734	0.320
George Springer	31.1%	9.9%	0.237	0.319	0.439	0.758	0.335

See the results after the jump

Best Lineup - Los Angeles Dodgers

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Los Angeles Dodgers.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.  In fact, I know that many of the results will not happen due to manager philosophies but these are the most optimal lineups that the simulator spit out.  In some cases the top couple of lineups had very small differences in results.  For NL teams it is always better to bat your pitcher eighth but I am not even going to go there in this exercise as I know there is a 0% chance of a MLB manager actually doing that.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants | Brewers

Dodgers 2014 Hitting ZIPS Projections:

	K%	BB%	AVE	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Matt Kemp	24.8%	8.6%	0.274	0.339	0.473	0.812	0.342
Yasiel Puig	19.7%	8.5%	0.284	0.354	0.485	0.839	0.359
Hanley Ramirez	17.3%	8.6%	0.276	0.342	0.486	0.828	0.357
Adrian Gonzalez	17.0%	8.0%	0.282	0.339	0.453	0.792	0.335
Carl Crawford	16.5%	5.2%	0.266	0.308	0.412	0.720	0.314
Alexander Guerrero	14.4%	7.5%	0.259	0.324	0.386	0.710	0.313
Juan Uribe	20.5%	6.1%	0.242	0.293	0.390	0.683	0.297
A.J. Ellis	18.3%	11.2%	0.244	0.337	0.367	0.704	0.306
Andre Ethier	19.5%	9.8%	0.261	0.340	0.405	0.745	0.319
Scott Van Slyke	25.1%	9.7%	0.249	0.325	0.420	0.745	0.325

See the results after the jump

Exportable 2014 MLB Schedule

Something that is difficult to find on the internet is an excel download file of the 2014 MLB Schedule.  I have taken the time to write a script that takes the 2014 MLB Schedule and converts it to an easy to use CSV file and uploaded it to google docs.  The file is free to download and can be found at the following link.

Here is the format that the file is in

Game ID,Year,Month,Day,Time,Away,Home

1,2014,3,22,4:00am,Dodgers,D-backs
2,2014,3,22,10:00pm,Dodgers,D-backs
3,2014,3,30,8:05pm,Dodgers,Padres
4,2014,3,31,1:05pm,Cubs,Pirates
5,2014,3,31,1:08pm,Royals,Tigers
6,2014,3,31,1:10pm,Nationals,Mets
7,2014,3,31,2:05pm,Phillies,Rangers
8,2014,3,31,2:10pm,Braves,Brewers
9,2014,3,31,3:05pm,Red Sox,Orioles
10,2014,3,31,4:10pm,Twins,White Sox
.
.
.
2428,2014,9,28,4:10pm,Angels,Mariners
2429,2014,9,28,4:10pm,Rockies,Dodgers
2430,2014,9,28,4:10pm,Cardinals,D-backs

Please keep in mind that game times and dates will be changing due to rain and I will not be maintaining these changes.

Best Lineup - Milwaukee Brewers

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Milwaukee Brewers.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants

See the results after the jump

Best Lineup - Oakland Athletics

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Oakland Athletics.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants

See the results after the jump

Best Lineup - San Francisco Giants

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the San Francisco Giants.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds

See the results after the jump

Best Lineup - Cleveland Indians

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Cleveland Indians.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds

See the results after the jump

Best Lineup - Cincinnati Reds

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Cincinnati Reds.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible, therefore I didn't attempt to let Joey Votto and Jay Bruce hit back to back.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins

See the results after the jump

Best Lineup - Toronto Blue Jays

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Toronto Blue Jays.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins

See the results after the jump...

Best Lineup - Miami Marlins

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Miami Marlins.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres

See the results after the jump...

Best Lineup - Minnesota Twins

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Minnesota Twins.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres

See the results after the jump...

Best Lineup - San Diego Padres

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the San Diego Padres.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays
NL: Mets | Cubs

See the results after the jump...

Best Lineup - Tampa Bay Rays

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Tampa Bay Rays.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest. For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers
NL: Mets | Cubs

See the results after the jump...

Best Lineup - Chicago Cubs

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Chicago Cubs.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest. For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers
NL: Mets

See the results after the break.

Best Lineup - Texas Rangers

Next up on my look at most efficient lineups is the Texas Rangers.  I used my baseball simulator to run millions of games through various different possible lineup scenarios to see which lineup it spit out as the most likely to win a game vs a RH and LH pitcher.  Each lineup was simulated in 2.5 million games.

Please keep in mind that 2014 Steamer Projections were used as input, so if you don't like some of the results take it up with them.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels
NL: Mets

See the results after the break.

Best Lineup - New York Mets

Next up on my look at most efficient lineups is the New York Mets.  I used my baseball simulator to run millions of games through various different possible lineup scenarios to see which lineup it spit out as the most likely to win a game vs a RH and LH pitcher.  I tried my best to not stack left handed hitters and I always batted the pitcher 9th because no MLB manager will bat his pitcher 8th which is where most should hit.

Please keep in mind that 2014 Steamer Projections were used as input, so if you don't like some of the results take it up with them.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels
NL: None

See the results after the break.

Best Lineup - Los Angeles Angels

Not sure if this is going to be a series for all teams or just some teams, but I am going to kick things off with the best lineup for the Los Angeles Angels. The methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers. I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest. For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Two million simulations make up the sample size.

See the results after the break.

Battle Of The Gold Gloves

One of the benefits of having a program that can accurately simulate a baseball game is that you can pretty much model anything and you can use the law of large numbers (or samples) to do the dirty work for you.  In my latest exercise, I decided to take the 2013 Gold Glove winners from both the National and American leagues and have them play against each other.  In order to make it fair, I ran sets of the simulation with each team being away/home and facing both a LH and RH starting pitcher.  I gave both teams the exact identical starting pitcher, bench and bullpen so that the only difference were the starting players.  I played by NL rules with no DH and gave both teams the same hitting skill for their pitcher.  And afterwards, I did the same thing but this time made all the players league average fielders to see which side was better solely on offense.

The simulator also allows me to determine the most efficient lineup for both teams (facing RHP and LHP).  The lineups that you see for both teams were the highest scoring lineups according to the simulator.  I put in a limitation of not batting any left handed hitters back to back as this seems to be something that most MLB managers follow and I always batted the pitcher ninth.

Here are the lineups

vs RHP	GGNL	GGAL		vs LHP	GGNL	GGAL
1	G.Parra	D.Pedroia		1	G.Parra	D.Pedroia
2	Y.Molina	A.Gordon		2	Y.Molina	S.Victorino
3	P.Goldschmidt	S.Victorino		3	P.Goldschmidt	E.Hosmer
4	C.Gonzalez	E.Hosmer		4	C.Gonzalez	A.Jones
5	N.Arenado	A.Jones		5	N.Arenado	A.Gordon
6	C.Gomez	S.Perez		6	A.Simmons	S.Perez
7	A.Simmons	M.Machado		7	B.Phillips	M.Machado
8	B.Phillips	J.Hardy		8	C.Gomez	J.Hardy
9	Pitcher	Pitcher		9	Pitcher	Pitcher

(GGNL - Gold Glove NL, GGAL - Gold Glove AL)

And here are the results

This table has all the players set to their defensive values.

Description	Away	Home	Winner	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
vs RHP	GGNL	GGAL	GGAL	3.43	3.32	50.42	6.75
vs RHP	GGAL	GGNL	GGNL	3.14	3.61	57.72	6.75
vs LHP	GGNL	GGAL	GGAL	3.48	3.36	50.37	6.84
vs LHP	GGAL	GGNL	GGNL	3.16	3.67	58.13	6.83

... and this table has all the players set to league average defensive values.

Description	Away	Home	Winner	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
vs RHP	GGNL	GGAL	GGAL	3.77	3.80	52.19	7.57
vs RHP	GGAL	GGNL	GGNL	3.60	3.97	56.33	7.57
vs LHP	GGNL	GGAL	GGAL	3.82	3.84	52.10	7.66
vs LHP	GGAL	GGNL	GGNL	3.63	4.04	56.69	7.67

Back Napkin Analysis:
It looks like the National League team is better both defensively and offensively.  Now keep in mind that the results will reflect the input data or player projections both offensively and defensively.  Not wanting to be biased, I used 2014 Steamer projections for the offense and I eye-balled the defensive values for each player from a mixture of UZR, FSR and Zips (if available).  I tended not to go above 15 runs saved per 150 games for any player.  Below are the defensive numbers I used for each player.

	NL	AL
C	Y.Molina (15)	S.Perez (13)
1B	P.Goldschmidt (4)	E.Hosmer (3)
2B	B.Phillips (8)	D.Pedroia (10)
3B	N.Arenado (12)	M.Machado (15)
SS	A.Simmons (15)	J.Hardy (10)
LF	C.Gonzalez (10)	A.Gordon (7)
CF	C.Gomez (13)	A.Jones (-3)
RF	G.Parra (12)	S.Victorino (15)